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-   -   Is there any danger of HD-DVD players becoming scarce like LD? (https://forum.dvdtalk.com/hd-talk/525344-there-any-danger-hd-dvd-players-becoming-scarce-like-ld.html)

TheKing 02-16-08 04:56 PM

There are still players released with SACD and DVD-A support, even though both of those formats are dead. It might only be from smaller companies (like Oppo), but there will be players that handle every disc format, including HD DVD.

m0vi3fan 02-16-08 05:05 PM

I'm sure over time hd players will become more scarce. But I would imagine you will probably still be able to find one or two still being made. Or it is possible that a standard feature on blu-ray players will include hd capability.

Alan Smithee 02-16-08 05:16 PM

CED players are relatively easy to find thanks to Ebay, and the last ones of those were made more than 20 years ago.

Gizmo 02-16-08 05:32 PM


Originally Posted by RoboDad
I mean no disrespect to you, but I don't believe for a moment that there are over a million HD DVD owners. There have been slightly over a million players sold, but my belief is that a significant number of HD DVD owners purchased two or more players (especially during the Walmart deal). Heck, I own two myself, largely due to my frustrations with the A1.

So let's say, for the sake of discussion, that there are really about 750,000 HD DVD player owners. How many of them already own a Blu-ray player (at least in the form of a PS3, if not an SA)? Maybe 25-35%? If it is 25%, that would leave a little over half a million HD DVD-only owners/potential dual-format customers. But how many of them will be interested in a dual-format player? Certainly the more savvy owners, such as those who visit enthusiast forums would, but will most other consumers be interested? Will they even know that the players exist? And if they only own a handful of movies (less than 10, most likely 4 or 5), will they think it might be better to save the extra money that the player would cost, and replace the discs as they become available on BD?

Obviously I am just speculating, but I hope you can see why I came to the conclusion that there will probably not be much of a market for the players beyond the next 3-5 months. And, of course, I could be completely wrong. ;)

While there are over 1 Million SA players sold, and maybe 400k+ additional 360 owners as well, it is possible some people own more then 1 player. However, I don't think the studios really take that into much consideration. Its players sold, not how many people own numerous players. Looking at software sold (like Transformers) is a better indication how many people own 1 vs multiple players.

Gizmo 02-16-08 05:41 PM


Originally Posted by Lord Rick
There aren't going to be any more dual format players. Mark my words.

Manufacturers are not going to waste marketing, research and technical support dollars on a dead format. It will not happen - please be realistic!

It doesn't matter if it costs $50, $10, or $1 in component costs to add HD-DVD to a player. It's not going to happen because of the other costs.

You should be able to buy players on the used market for years to come, so no worries if you want to keep your HD-DVDs.
And used HD-DVDs are going to get dirt cheap in the coming months. Especially once titles like Transformers, etc are released on BR.

$5 says even if Toshiba quits HD DVD tomorrow, someone will still be making Dual format players (Smasung, LG, Toshiba whatever) well into 2009. Like others have mentioned, if there are still DVD players that play DVD-A and SACD, which sold no where near what HD DVD has done, some CEs will still slip HD DVD in their machines and mark it up with a premium. With tons of unique titles only on HD DVD (from Universal, Paramount, Warner and imports), it is still a viable market for years to come.

Lets go with Universal and Paramount going Blu tomorrow, how long will it take them to release all their software in Blu? Universal has what, 200 titles out on HD DVD, Paramount/DW maybe 30 exclusive and Warner with 20, you think those will be released right away? Coupled with the fact there are so few Blu-ray plants at the moment pressing discs and studios already have to wait in line to make titles (with Fox delaying some due to this exact reason, and now Warner ramping up titles) and the yields on them, there is no way Universal could pump out 200 titles in the next 2 years. No way.

How about titles that sold so poorly (like Cat People, Time Cop, White Noise etc.), if the yields and such are true (from what some Blu insiders said), they would have to press these movies in 10-20k runs....how many copies of Cat People do you think were sold on HD DVD? 1-2k? Is it profitable for Universal to produce Cat People right now, today, to the 1 Million Blu-ray SA players and 4 million PS3 owners?

...and for all those reasons I think Dual Players will be a very viable solution for at least the next 2 years, if HD DVD dies tomorrow.

GreenMonkey 02-16-08 07:45 PM

I agree. And adding HD-DVD support shouldn't cost very much, really, from what I've read.

At the very least, I guarantee Toshiba will toss out a dual-format player for the next few years.

bunkaroo 02-16-08 07:51 PM


Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
While there are over 1 Million SA players sold, and maybe 400k+ additional 360 owners as well, it is possible some people own more then 1 player. However, I don't think the studios really take that into much consideration. Its players sold, not how many people own numerous players. Looking at software sold (like Transformers) is a better indication how many people own 1 vs multiple players.

It's more than possible. You've owned at least three players yourself based on posts I've read of yours and your signature. I own two. It's not just possible, it is reality.

Many people upgraded from 1st-gen machines to get players with better load times. Many current HD DVD owners used the Walmart sales to get extra players. That's one reason why there were never big software sales bumps to coincide with the extra player sales.

If there have been a million SA sales and 400K add-ons (not sure if these numbers are accurate), I'd say 750K unique owners is a pretty realistic estimation.

Let's say 1 in 3 HD DVD owners owned 2 players. Right there the math would work out to 1 million players being owned by 750K people.

Studios should care about that, because they want to sell a disc to everyone that owns the format.

cultshock 02-16-08 08:06 PM


Originally Posted by Alan Smithee
CED players are relatively easy to find thanks to Ebay, and the last ones of those were made more than 20 years ago.

Yeah, and laserdisc players certainly aren't hard to find on ebay either. And many are reasonably priced. My LD player is over 20 years old and still plays like a champ (then again, it's probably better made than most Toshiba HD DVD players are).

Gizmo 02-16-08 08:08 PM


Originally Posted by bunkaroo
It's more than possible. You've owned at least three players yourself based on posts I've read of yours and your signature. I own two. It's not just possible, it is reality.

Dude Ive owned (own)....

A1, 360 AO, A2, A2, A2 (Parents house) A3, A3, XA1, 360 AO, XA2 (soon!) Too many good deals not to pass up on. However I sold EVERY extra player at a profit (just sold my A3 + 300 and Transformers on craigslist for $180 :lol: )

Lord Rick 02-16-08 08:16 PM


Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
$5 says even if Toshiba quits HD DVD tomorrow, someone will still be making Dual format players (Smasung, LG, Toshiba whatever) well into 2009.

I'll bet you the hd-dvd or blu-ray of your choice that there won't be a single dual-format player sold at Best Buy, Circuit City, Target, Kmart, or Sears by Jan 2009.

The only way I see any being sold at all is if the Chinese CH-DVD makers throw in HD-DVD, but those would all be sold mail order from Hong Kong.

Gizmo 02-16-08 08:29 PM


Originally Posted by Lord Rick
I'll bet you the hd-dvd or blu-ray of your choice that there won't be a single dual-format player sold at Best Buy, Circuit City, Target, Kmart, or Sears by Jan 2009.

The only way I see any being sold at all is if the Chinese CH-DVD makers throw in HD-DVD, but those would all be sold mail order from Hong Kong.

Done! :)

bunkaroo 02-16-08 08:29 PM


Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
Dude Ive owned (own)....

A1, 360 AO, A2, A2, A2 (Parents house) A3, A3, XA1, 360 AO, XA2 (soon!) Too many good deals not to pass up on. However I sold EVERY extra player at a profit (just sold my A3 + 300 and Transformers on craigslist for $180 :lol: )

That's just sick. :)

But to be fair, you owned at least 2 until very recently, yes?

Gizmo 02-16-08 08:48 PM


Originally Posted by bunkaroo
That's just sick. :)

But to be fair, you owned at least 2 until very recently, yes?

I think Ive only ever owned 3 at a time.

I usually sell one off the help pay for the next one or buy them really cheap ($99 A2 with 2 free movies instantly which I sold for $50 cash and then sold the A2 for $120 so making a decent profit while still having the UPC for 5 free mail ins)

I will officially end with the XA1 and XA2. Might get an A30/35 as a backup player.

RoboDad 02-16-08 10:07 PM


Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
Done! :)

Remember now, both of you, there are witnesses to this transaction. ;)

DVDKrayzie 02-16-08 10:37 PM


Originally Posted by Lord Rick
I'll bet you the hd-dvd or blu-ray of your choice that there won't be a single dual-format player sold at Best Buy, Circuit City, Target, Kmart, or Sears by Jan 2009.
.

can i get in on this too?

cmvolt 02-17-08 02:39 AM


Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
I think Ive only ever owned 3 at a time.

I usually sell one off the help pay for the next one or buy them really cheap ($99 A2 with 2 free movies instantly which I sold for $50 cash and then sold the A2 for $120 so making a decent profit while still having the UPC for 5 free mail ins)

I will officially end with the XA1 and XA2. Might get an A30/35 as a backup player.

The keyword here is : "owned" or the in the popular vernacular "PWNED !!!! FTW !!!"

pro-bassoonist 02-17-08 02:39 AM


Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
Coupled with the fact there are so few Blu-ray plants at the moment pressing discs and studios already have to wait in line to make titles (with Fox delaying some due to this exact reason, and now Warner ramping up titles) and the yields on them, there is no way Universal could pump out 200 titles in the next 2 years. No way.

The moment Universal jumps in your clock will be ticking.

Pro-B

Lord Rick 02-17-08 08:04 AM


Originally Posted by DVDKrayzie
can i get in on this too?

Absolutely!

DVDKrayzie 02-17-08 10:08 AM


Originally Posted by Lord Rick
Absolutely!

Sweet, so we will check the websites in Jan. I'm hoping at least Toshiba has the deceny to include support with their eventual Blu Ray players just to keep people from boycotting them. After the 360 runs its course I don't want to have to hold onto them just to play some older movies.

Gizmo 02-17-08 11:22 AM


Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist
The moment Universal jumps in your clock will be ticking.

Pro-B

My clock? Maybe this would force you to own more then 17 titles on Blu-ray.

Thanks for reminding me to block you again.

Mammal 02-17-08 01:59 PM

If Toshiba builds in HD-DVD support - even just play-the-movie-in-HD-picture-and-sound support - this would be good reason for the many owners of HD-DVD discs to buy a Toshiba BR player.

DVD Polizei 02-17-08 02:05 PM

I'm hoping this is the case, but as I posted today, a Toshiba source says they plan on an exit strategy from the entire High-Def business altogether. I hope I'm misinterpreting that statement and we get a better elaboration when Toshiba announces it this week.

Supermallet 02-17-08 02:44 PM

In the wake of the article DVD Polizei refers to, I've been looking to get a backup player. Looking at Amazon, the XA2 goes for $299 through a reseller. I can get the A35 through the Amazon warehouse for $200. Or I could go a cheaper route and get the 360 add on or the A30 much cheaper, but I'd prefer the higher end players. I'm leaning towards the A35, but I would prefer a cheaper price.

DVD Polizei 02-17-08 03:29 PM

I would imagine you will find a cheaper price in the coming months. And I wouldn't be looking for a second player at the moment, as we still have some time. I'm sure there are many more HD DVD players available than their are HD DVD consumers.

The XA2 might be hard to get, but I think it will still be available in a few months, maybe more. Having the XA2, I wouldn't mind a second one, and I have thought about an A35, but I'm not buying anything as a backup just yet. Hopefully, Toshiba will elaborate/confirm their intentions for their HD DVD consumer. Taking it in the ass once was an interesting experience, but taking it in the ass a second time, by your own cellmate, is certainly nothing to brag about.

bunkaroo 02-17-08 04:10 PM


Originally Posted by Suprmallet
In the wake of the article DVD Polizei refers to, I've been looking to get a backup player. Looking at Amazon, the XA2 goes for $299 through a reseller. I can get the A35 through the Amazon warehouse for $200. Or I could go a cheaper route and get the 360 add on or the A30 much cheaper, but I'd prefer the higher end players. I'm leaning towards the A35, but I would prefer a cheaper price.

Dan, are you comfortable buying refurbs? That's what the $299 one is at Amazon. I don't know if I would buy a refurb as a backup. Now, if I saw a brand new XA2 for $299 I'd buy it.


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