That people are retarded. Plain and simple.

In order for SDVD to die out at the hands of BR (and not some other home video revolution) all of this will have to happen:

1. At least 70% of all homes will have to have HDTV's (and probably one in every room of the house that currently has an analog set).

2. BR players will have to have dropped below the $300 threshold (and more likely below the $100 threshold on the low end of the consumer scale)

3. BR drives will have to be ubiquitous on all new computers and portable devices

4. Average BRD prices will have to be below $20 (cheap enough not to be seen as a premium when compared to SDVD's)

5. SDVD console players will have stopped being made altogether by hardware manufacturers

6. Recordable BRD's will have become the norm for recording/storing data in general


When all of those conditions have been met and the average consumer is outfitted with HDTV and has Blu-ray players all over his house and in his computers, then he'll cease buying SDVD's and the profits will shrink to a point where studios don't consider SDVD worth pressing any longer. The problem is, by the time all that happens the direct digital download revolution will be in full swing so BR won't get to bask in mass market glory very long. They'll be on their way out just as soon as they get in.

To augment my previous comment, I think if BR were somehow guaranteed to have an open window for 15 years where the threat of a better, more advanced home video platform was effectively supressed, then it would certainly kill off DVD no problem. But like I said, by the time it finally starts making that kind of headway, we're already halfway into the fully-realized download paradigm. A lot of people see that and are already voicing that concern in magazine columns and online like we all are here. You can't tell me that doesn't weigh on the minds of a lot of people and heavily influence their decisions about going "all in" for BRD. Even if Sony came to my house and gave me free HDTV's and BR players for all my rooms, new computers with BR drives, a new portable player for my car, and promised $10-15 retail prices as the norm for titles, I still wouldn't want to do what I did with VHS and just dump my entire collection and start actively rebuying everything on BRD. Instead I'd just make all my new purchases BR and slowly replace old titles when they get upgraded significantly or when they went on sale in a too-good-to-pass-up way. So when the day finally arrived that I woke up and found SDVD completely purged out of my life, BR would probably already be 2-3 years into its own demise. Face it, it's an interim format.

That's not what we're talking about. We're talking about SDVD dying out *in the marketplace,* not in people's lives.

I personally think DVD will live on for decades as a storage medium, and standard-definition video will live on almost as long as a portable, easily copyable format.

It wouldn't surprise me for example for HDVDs to come with an online code to entitle the purchaser to a free download of an SD version of the same title, that can be burned to DVD for portable use.

Off topic here, but SF author Robert Heinlein wrote a famous short story in which this was a near-future background scenario. The story was "Waldo," from which came the nickname for the mechanical arms (waldoes) used to deal with radioactive materials in labs. Heinlein also warned (although rather indirectly via the eccentric behavior of a character) about the potential health hazards that this might bring.

Back to your regularly scheduled programing.

I'll have to agree with kvrdave. DVD and BD will co-exist, and will both eventually disappear when the next big thing comes along... probably downloads for high bitrate VOD. I don't see that happening for at least 10 years though... the bandwidth just isn't there right now. Eventually we'll see software released in 4k resolution, and I think that will be it, until someone figures out 3D or hologram displays! :)

When the 8 big studios get together and agree to stop making DVD. That is the only thing that could end DVD. They would have to all agree to a format, announce that all new titles going forward would be that format and announce also that what DVDs are out there is all that will be because production had ceased. Not happening though.

BD and for what it's worth HD DVD will be the last packaged media for movies. It's moving to a downloadable world that will clear up all those movie boxes you have. At least my wife will be happy.

Agree 1000%. I'm not upgrading to any HD format cause I'm not gonna waste the money. DOwnloadable content is comnig and HD discs aren't that much better than SD that I should upgrade now.

Which we know will not be happening any time soon. Right now we are seeing DVDs bundled with videos that can be downloaded from the DVD and put on an iPod. We will be be seeing iPod video rentals on Tuesday from Apple as well. At this point IF DVD dies out, it will be the same time Blu-ray, HD DVD, or whatever else comes next. No way will any new format be the "successor" to DVD, they will simply sell side-by-side as an alternate way to watch movies in HD.

I agree. I don't understand why everyone is proclaiming downloadable VOD as being the nail in the coffin for BD. After all, BDs hold 25-50 GB of content... if we're talking downloadable HD content (and it would HAVE to be on par or better), then that's a TON of bandwidth that simply isn't there given our current internet infrastructure, nor will it be there for a long, long time. Newer codecs will alleviate this somewhat, but not enough. Is it really more likely for someone to purchase a 2+ terabyte HD and then wait 4-8 hours to download a movie than it is for them to just, you know, purchase a disc that holds the same amount of content?

I agree that digital storage of media is our ultimate future, but given the massive technological requirements for this to be commonplace, I don't see it happening before HD discs become commonplace. And let's also consider the physical commodity factor... when all else is equal, most people like to have something they can hold in their hands when they purchase something. Despite e-books and iTunes, people still like to buy books and CDs. Mindsets like that take even longer to change than technology.

Ask yourself how much time you waste going to stores to pick up the movie and come back. Or how long you have to wait for a movie to be delivered to you via Amazon.

I'm not saying Blu Ray quality VOD is here, but its coming...and that has to be worrisome to the hardware manafacturers - the studios could probably care less, thats how they make movie selling a movie over and over again in different formats.

Furthermore,even if takes 4-8 hours., I could see something to the effect of it downloading at 12:01 on its release date. So while you are theoretically sleeping, the movie could be ready to go by the the time you wake up on release day...bypassing the store entirely.

Don't know about the rest of you, but it doesn't take me much time at all to order order things online. Simply not part of the where or how I should buy equation.

As for buying in the store, I like to get out of the house. I realize that might not be the case for everybody here. ;)

But really, until "in-store" only sales dry up completely, people will always be heading out at least once in a awhile if they want a good deal or see things in person before they buy.

The proper comparision is not how long it takes you to buy something online, but rather how long it takes for the movie to be available (i.e. delivered via mail to you) So yeah I could see a 4-8 wait being less wait time than waiting on the postal service to deliver something to you.

I don't particularly like going to the stores to buy movies, I find them disorganized, loud and the rest of the complaints you find in the store forum.

It will die or at least on the verge of death within three years.

Bookmark this post and check with me in Jan 2011 ;)

Here's my reasoning...

Well, once recordable BDs or HD-DVDs are more affordable, blank dvd media gonna die. And you all can guess what happens next...

I actually enjoy browsing the HD section of Best Buy. I love movies that much that I will waste time doing that. As far as Amazon, I wait 1-2 days. I'm only 29 years old, so waiting for a movie isn't causing me to age any faster.

What if I wake up and my hard drive was damaged during a storm and I lost all of my movies?

For me Standard DVD will die once I never use my portable DVD player. I watch SD DVD at work on a daily basis. Even if there was a portable HD-DVD drive, I'm not risking a disc getting scratched.

I enjoy browsing as well. Also, if somebody wants a title the day it comes out, there are obviously ways to do that. Both instore and online.

life is disorganised, and thank god for that, it'd be a pretty dull place otherwise. it's a pretty pessamistic viewpoint to assume your going to encounter bad experiences outside your house!

btw i've yet to read an electronic book - just don't like staring at a computer monitor for that long - and suspect the number of people who prefer to own rather than rent will remain relatively high over the next couple of thousand years...

Actually, I go out of the house all the time..with my fiance - going to dinner, walking the dog, going to plays and movies etc. etc. I don't like spending anytime at Best Buy - trust me I used to, but I guess I've gotten old enough where I don't care to visit and wander around that place.

Plus getting to Best Buy in Chicago is a real pain the ass...not worth my time.

I dunno - I would assume its like software..once you buy it you can download one copy or something...so if my computer crashes, I can download NERO again with my registration code and install it.

Actually, it would make DVD theft a thing of the past really..somebody steals your hard drive...one click deauthorizes all the movies. I'm up for that.

This may depend by the service. With itunes for instance you can redownload your whole collection once (and only if they still offer the stuff you lost). After that you better back it all up because they will not give it to you again.

That means you will have to have double the storage so you can back up all your movies.

Exactly. How is this not obvious?

And for the record, I think VOD will replace most if not all movie rentals. But replace purchasing the movie to watch more than once? I can't see enough people going for that until the storage options are much cheaper and a lot more reliable.

Totally agree with this. For rentals it makes sense. Cable and Satellite are already doing VOD and Netflix seems to be trying to get their own version on the market. The 360 already does it and I only see that feature getting expanded. I would expect the PS3 and the Apple TV (through iTunes) to start offering downloadable rentals as well.

Space and quality are not a big issue if you are just renting a movie to watch once. Even if the HD is only 720p and a bit compressed you probably won't care on a convenient $5 rental.

When we start talking about buying and owning a library I just don't see it. People don't value digital content the same way they value store bought movies (not to mention the current generation that does use a lot of digital content is used to getting all that content free on bit torrent). No way people will pay $10 - $20 a movie to own a library that sits on harddrives. It sucks to have a DVD go bad as rare as that is, but to come home and realize your HDD failed and you just lost a hundred movies? Screw that.