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Sony CEO Sees 'Stalemate' in Disc Fight

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Sony CEO Sees 'Stalemate' in Disc Fight

Old 11-13-07, 06:03 PM
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Originally Posted by PopcornTreeCt
I think there will always be physical media the proof is in CDs. Everyone I talk to tells me they haven't bought a CD in years. Yet they are still there. Every Tuesday new ones come out.
Yep, and just as every Tuesday comes around, more and more cd stores are going out of business. Seattle only has one major cd store left (Silver Platters). I hate to tell you this, but cds won't be around much longer either.
Old 11-13-07, 06:09 PM
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I personally have zero interest in collecting movies on hard drives.

Persistent storage? Maybe. But I'm not going to rely on something with moving parts to store my favorite movies.
Old 11-13-07, 06:14 PM
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Originally Posted by theflyingdutch
Yep, and just as every Tuesday comes around, more and more cd stores are going out of business. Seattle only has one major cd store left (Silver Platters). I hate to tell you this, but cds won't be around much longer either.

Silver Platters -- and most other CD specialty shops like it -- are ridiculously expensive. Sure, they've got a better selection than a Best Buy or Wal Mart, but that's why there are online stores like Amazon and Deep Discount.
Old 11-13-07, 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by bunkaroo
I personally have zero interest in collecting movies on hard drives.

Persistent storage? Maybe. But I'm not going to rely on something with moving parts to store my favorite movies.
Hold that thought in 10 years because there were many who said the same thing about Laserdiscs not going out when DVDs first came out (really!). Besides, you already rely on something with moving parts to play your favorite movies. Hard drive failures happen, but you can bet your bottom dollar that is where we are headed.
Old 11-13-07, 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by applesandrice
Silver Platters -- and most other CD specialty shops like it -- are ridiculously expensive. Sure, they've got a better selection than a Best Buy or Wal Mart, but that's why there are online stores like Amazon and Deep Discount.
Look again at Amazon. There are more and more downloads available and coming than ever before.
Old 11-13-07, 06:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Josh Z
Sony doesn't own Transformers (not the live action Michael Bay film, anyway; they do own the animated series and movie). Sony has no say in how the Transformers film is released on disc.
True but just as the HD DVD of 300 has an exclusive special feature the Blu-Ray version lacks, Sony could have easily convinced Paramount to include Blu-Ray exclusive features for Transformers if the release had come out for both formats. In fact, didn't Warner Bros. do just that for the Blu-Ray release of Terminator 3? Why couldn't Paramount?

Last edited by RocShemp; 11-13-07 at 06:50 PM.
Old 11-13-07, 07:26 PM
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Originally Posted by theflyingdutch
It's clear. We are moving away from discs as the storage medium and going to the ability of our hard drives to hold those movies far into the future. It's only a matter of time.
So you have no proof other than your own opinion. You have no proof that I'm in the minority either.

Just because you *can* store something on a hard drive doesn't mean that will replace discs.

Why? Because people want to watch movies in more than one place. They want to be able to loan them to friends, or check them out from the library. Or even hold them and look at the cover art.

You can wave your hands all you want to, but discs aren't going away.
Old 11-13-07, 07:28 PM
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Originally Posted by theflyingdutch
Hold that thought in 10 years because there were many who said the same thing about Laserdiscs not going out when DVDs first came out (really!). Besides, you already rely on something with moving parts to play your favorite movies. Hard drive failures happen, but you can bet your bottom dollar that is where we are headed.
I'll bet you $1000 donated to charity that in 10 years there will still be more movies sold/rented in optical disc form than downloaded.

Last edited by Lord Rick; 11-13-07 at 07:34 PM.
Old 11-13-07, 08:08 PM
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Originally Posted by theflyingdutch
Yep, and just as every Tuesday comes around, more and more cd stores are going out of business. Seattle only has one major cd store left (Silver Platters). I hate to tell you this, but cds won't be around much longer either.
The CD stores that are going out of business are the same ones who are still selling new cds for $16.99. Those days are over. People generally won't pay more than $10 for a cd. It's a risk on music, since you can't rent them, so $10 is easier to swallow than $17 or $18. I'm amazed FYE is still in business.
Old 11-13-07, 08:23 PM
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Physical media is not going to disappear any time soon. Eventually, yes, but certainly not in the next ten years unless there are some remarkable changes in the computer, digital storage, AND networking fields (and I mean remarkable beyond the ordinary expected remarkable advancement in these already fast-moving fields). The transition away from physical media will be a long, multi-generational affair, because it has to overcome several deeply entrenched characteristics: the enjoyment of real-world shopping-you can order almost anything online now, but you see that malls are not out of business.

People like shopping, people like having something they can hold in their hands. And computer-based digital media and networking is still FAR from reliable enough at the home user level of people to trust it enough as a primary medium. You're sitting down to watch a movie on Saturday night, but you can't because the download network is down right now? Your movie collection is inaccessible because you had to install Windows Updates and your computer won't boot up quite right? Your hard drive just failed and you lost all your movies? You could try to equate that scenario to a house fire or a theft, but the reality is that MOST computer users are not highly technically savvy and suffer preventable data losses all the time.

Edit: and add to that, music is much different because most people do most of their music listening AWAY from home, whether it be in their car, on the bus or train, at work, at the gym, etc. There is a lot more of an incentive for music to evolve to MOBILE formats, like the MP3 player. I think music downloading is so big because the CD is inadequate for portability, and MP3 players provide that portability, and downloading directly in MP3/WMA/AAC format eliminates an unnecessary step of ripping from a CD. And even still, millions and millions of CDs are getting sold. Movies are a different animal since most movie-watching is done at home, and there is not HUGE need or desire for portability.

Last edited by MrDs10e; 11-13-07 at 08:28 PM.
Old 11-13-07, 09:22 PM
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Originally Posted by theflyingdutch
Hold that thought in 10 years because there were many who said the same thing about Laserdiscs not going out when DVDs first came out (really!). Besides, you already rely on something with moving parts to play your favorite movies. Hard drive failures happen, but you can bet your bottom dollar that is where we are headed.
They're already phasing out hard drives on laptops. Hard drives will eventually die out in favor of more reliable storage solutions.

Also, I can always get a new player. If I lose content, will content providers provide me a replacement for free? I highly doubt it.
Old 11-13-07, 09:54 PM
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Originally Posted by MrDs10e
Physical media is not going to disappear any time soon. Eventually, yes, but certainly not in the next ten years unless there are some remarkable changes in the computer, digital storage, AND networking fields (and I mean remarkable beyond the ordinary expected remarkable advancement in these already fast-moving fields). The transition away from physical media will be a long, multi-generational affair, because it has to overcome several deeply entrenched characteristics: the enjoyment of real-world shopping-you can order almost anything online now, but you see that malls are not out of business.

People like shopping, people like having something they can hold in their hands. And computer-based digital media and networking is still FAR from reliable enough at the home user level of people to trust it enough as a primary medium. You're sitting down to watch a movie on Saturday night, but you can't because the download network is down right now? Your movie collection is inaccessible because you had to install Windows Updates and your computer won't boot up quite right? Your hard drive just failed and you lost all your movies? You could try to equate that scenario to a house fire or a theft, but the reality is that MOST computer users are not highly technically savvy and suffer preventable data losses all the time.

Edit: and add to that, music is much different because most people do most of their music listening AWAY from home, whether it be in their car, on the bus or train, at work, at the gym, etc. There is a lot more of an incentive for music to evolve to MOBILE formats, like the MP3 player. I think music downloading is so big because the CD is inadequate for portability, and MP3 players provide that portability, and downloading directly in MP3/WMA/AAC format eliminates an unnecessary step of ripping from a CD. And even still, millions and millions of CDs are getting sold. Movies are a different animal since most movie-watching is done at home, and there is not HUGE need or desire for portability.
A great post - covers all the points I wanted to make but was too lazy to type - and good thing too as this post is much more eloquent than what I would have come up with...
Old 11-13-07, 10:34 PM
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Originally Posted by MrDs10e
Physical media is not going to disappear any time soon. Eventually, yes, but certainly not in the next ten years unless there are some remarkable changes in the computer, digital storage, AND networking fields (and I mean remarkable beyond the ordinary expected remarkable advancement in these already fast-moving fields). The transition away from physical media will be a long, multi-generational affair, because it has to overcome several deeply entrenched characteristics: the enjoyment of real-world shopping-you can order almost anything online now, but you see that malls are not out of business.

People like shopping, people like having something they can hold in their hands. And computer-based digital media and networking is still FAR from reliable enough at the home user level of people to trust it enough as a primary medium. You're sitting down to watch a movie on Saturday night, but you can't because the download network is down right now? Your movie collection is inaccessible because you had to install Windows Updates and your computer won't boot up quite right? Your hard drive just failed and you lost all your movies? You could try to equate that scenario to a house fire or a theft, but the reality is that MOST computer users are not highly technically savvy and suffer preventable data losses all the time.

Edit: and add to that, music is much different because most people do most of their music listening AWAY from home, whether it be in their car, on the bus or train, at work, at the gym, etc. There is a lot more of an incentive for music to evolve to MOBILE formats, like the MP3 player. I think music downloading is so big because the CD is inadequate for portability, and MP3 players provide that portability, and downloading directly in MP3/WMA/AAC format eliminates an unnecessary step of ripping from a CD. And even still, millions and millions of CDs are getting sold. Movies are a different animal since most movie-watching is done at home, and there is not HUGE need or desire for portability.
agree on all points. i would also add that another difference which has added to the popularity of music downloads is the element of being able to download specific songs, rather than just a whole album. there is no equivalent advantage with movie downloads.
Old 11-13-07, 11:04 PM
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Originally Posted by theflyingdutch
The "proof" is in the way video recording and storage have gone in the past 15 years. Hirez in the 90s was laserdisc, but there was a movement toward a smaller format (DVD). TIVOs, etc., brought us to recordable content on hard drives and with larger hard drives and advanced streaming technology, I see HD not just a pipedream.

I also remember my own videorecording gear and the popularity of each subsequent technology as it was adopted. I (and others) went from huge VHS recordings, to MiniDV (in 1996 when it first came out), to DVD-ROM, and now to harddrive storage of those videos. We've even gone past standard definition and gotten HD hard drive video recorders.

It's clear. We are moving away from discs as the storage medium and going to the ability of our hard drives to hold those movies far into the future. It's only a matter of time.
Most people do not archive movies on their harddrive or DVR. They use that technology for time shifting. Record a show now, watch it a few days later, delete it. The technology is much more efficient for time shifting than tapes or recordable discs.

But time shifting is a completely different animal than purchasing a movie for permanent ownership.
Old 11-13-07, 11:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
Jay G- I think what was eluded to is that slowly DVDs will be phased out in favor of the new format[s] over the course of several years.
That will possibly happen. However, if it does happen, it will happen because of consumer demand waning on DVDs, not because of studios pre-emptively ending support of a popular, and profitable, format in the hopes that it will force people to buy into the new formats.

Also, HD discs vs. DVD isn't anything like PS2 vs PS1, since video games need to be designed practically from the ground-up for each video game system. Continued support for the PS1 via "ports" of PS2 games is incredibly more expensive than downconverting an HD transfer to SD for DVD.
Old 11-13-07, 11:04 PM
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Originally Posted by theflyingdutch
Then you're in the minority on that then.

As for what "physical" discs or whatnot will be available and what we may want, I forsee hard drive capacity to more than make up for the issues of storage. I will want my movies on my hard drive and not in some disc format.
Actually, I think you're in the minority. Most people want physical collections. And if they didn't, when their hard drive crashes, they'll wish they did.

Downloads are great for impulsive listening and on-the-go iPod fun, but when you want to actually collect your songs, you have a physical media collection, but also rip your music to your hard drive. The same for movies.

Anyone who is half-way serious about some sort of investment in music and movies, they have a physical collection. And then we're not even talking about the psychological aspect of having a physical collection, and admiring the space it takes up (posting pics and bragging about it), and admiring the artwork on the DVDs and box sets.

So, while maybe 13-20 year olds might just have a collection on their hard drive, the rest of us, the majority, have physical collections. And it's these collections which easily outmatch the average hard drive collections.

More than likely physical collections and hard drive collections will coexist because of the nature of the need for something physical, and making sure our collection doesn't become entirely corrupted by a computer fault or virus.

Last edited by DVD Polizei; 11-13-07 at 11:06 PM.
Old 11-13-07, 11:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Lord Rick
So you have no proof other than your own opinion. You have no proof that I'm in the minority either.

Just because you *can* store something on a hard drive doesn't mean that will replace discs.

Why? Because people want to watch movies in more than one place. They want to be able to loan them to friends, or check them out from the library. Or even hold them and look at the cover art.

You can wave your hands all you want to, but discs aren't going away.
You obviously didn't read my other comment right after your initial "prove it" comment.

Here ya go:

The "proof" is in the way video recording and storage have gone in the past 15 years. Hirez in the 90s was laserdisc, but there was a movement toward a smaller format (DVD). TIVOs, etc., brought us to recordable content on hard drives and with larger hard drives and advanced streaming technology, I see HD not just a pipedream.

I also remember my own videorecording gear and the popularity of each subsequent technology as it was adopted. I (and others) went from huge VHS recordings, to MiniDV (in 1996 when it first came out), to DVD-ROM, and now to harddrive storage of those videos. We've even gone past standard definition and gotten HD hard drive video recorders.

It's clear. We are moving away from discs as the storage medium and going to the ability of our hard drives to hold those movies far into the future. It's only a matter of time."

As for hard disk drives not being the optimal storage solution--that's entirely possible, but as we have gone from floppy disks 5 1/4 inch in size to jump drives that can hold multiple gigabytes, I bet you that jump drives of the future will be able to do the same thing with movies. And that will answer the need of mobility.

Last edited by theflyingdutch; 11-13-07 at 11:10 PM.
Old 11-13-07, 11:14 PM
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Originally Posted by DVD Polizei
Actually, I think you're in the minority. Most people want physical collections. And if they didn't, when their hard drive crashes, they'll wish they did.

Downloads are great for impulsive listening and on-the-go iPod fun, but when you want to actually collect your songs, you have a physical media collection, but also rip your music to your hard drive. The same for movies.

Anyone who is half-way serious about some sort of investment in music and movies, they have a physical collection. And then we're not even talking about the psychological aspect of having a physical collection, and admiring the space it takes up (posting pics and bragging about it), and admiring the artwork on the DVDs and box sets.

So, while maybe 13-20 year olds might just have a collection on their hard drive, the rest of us, the majority, have physical collections. And it's these collections which easily outmatch the average hard drive collections.

More than likely physical collections and hard drive collections will coexist because of the nature of the need for something physical, and making sure our collection doesn't become entirely corrupted by a computer fault or virus.
I have thousands upon thousands of cds, dvds, etc. and I would give up all of them for a decent storage space on some computer. Of course, you're right about possible computer problems, but that is also why we back up nearly everything that is important.
Old 11-13-07, 11:17 PM
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Originally Posted by kefrank
agree on all points. i would also add that another difference which has added to the popularity of music downloads is the element of being able to download specific songs, rather than just a whole album. there is no equivalent advantage with movie downloads.
Not with movies, not so much, but with TV shows, definitely. One could download only the episodes you want. Or, to go even further, for variety, sketch, new, talk show, etc. one could download only the segment one wants. www.thedailyshow.com , for example, has just recently made available every episode ever made, divided into their individual segments. For this particular show, consumers are probably better served by a downloading/streaming option like that site than any "best of" DVD ever could.
Old 11-13-07, 11:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Josh Z
But time shifting is a completely different animal than purchasing a movie for permanent ownership.
Don't most people rent though? I can see movie downloads imparting a huge impact on the Netflix rental crowd, which is probably why Netflix is moving into streaming/downloadable videos.
Old 11-13-07, 11:53 PM
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Originally Posted by theflyingdutch
The "proof" is in the way video recording and storage have gone in the past 15 years. Hirez in the 90s was laserdisc, but there was a movement toward a smaller format (DVD). TIVOs, etc., brought us to recordable content on hard drives and with larger hard drives and advanced streaming technology, I see HD not just a pipedream.
that's not really proof. that's highly unscientific trend analysis based largely on anecdotal information in a relatively young consumer market. additionally, it's too convoluted to be pertinent. DVRs (such as TIVO) serve a different function than home video players and are not directly relevant to the discussion.

there are tons of factors that influence consumer adoption and to reduce it to simply the form factor of the physical media is an extreme oversimplification. if that was the only or even the primary motivating factor in adoption of a/v media, minidiscs would have overtaken CDs for music long ago.

As for hard disk drives not being the optimal storage solution--that's entirely possible, but as we have gone from floppy disks 5 1/4 inch in size to jump drives that can hold multiple gigabytes, I bet you that jump drives of the future will be able to do the same thing with movies. And that will answer the need of mobility.
again, this is simple view of a complicated issue. do you really think studios will be happy with the possibility of me paying $15 to download a movie that i could copy to a thumb drive or anywhere else and do with it as i please? that's not going to happen. the content providers would have to figure out some sort of technological compromise that provides the portability that consumers already have with packaged media as well as the content rights management that studios desire. it is abundantly clear that these media corporations are incredibly paranoid about the ease with which digitally-downloaded content can be redistributed.
Old 11-13-07, 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Jay G.
Not with movies, not so much, but with TV shows, definitely. One could download only the episodes you want. Or, to go even further, for variety, sketch, new, talk show, etc. one could download only the segment one wants. www.thedailyshow.com , for example, has just recently made available every episode ever made, divided into their individual segments. For this particular show, consumers are probably better served by a downloading/streaming option like that site than any "best of" DVD ever could.
oh, absolutely. i think download/streaming is a wonderful and very viable idea for television shows as well as for movie rentals. i simply don't see it driving packaged media out of the consumer home video market, which is dominated by feature films that consumers want to own.
Old 11-14-07, 01:51 AM
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Originally Posted by kefrank
... it is abundantly clear that these media corporations are incredibly paranoid...
This has got to be the understatement of the century.
Old 11-14-07, 06:26 AM
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Originally Posted by DVD Polizei
Actually, I think you're in the minority. Most people want physical collections. And if they didn't, when their hard drive crashes, they'll wish they did.

Downloads are great for impulsive listening and on-the-go iPod fun, but when you want to actually collect your songs, you have a physical media collection, but also rip your music to your hard drive. The same for movies.

Anyone who is half-way serious about some sort of investment in music and movies, they have a physical collection. And then we're not even talking about the psychological aspect of having a physical collection, and admiring the space it takes up (posting pics and bragging about it), and admiring the artwork on the DVDs and box sets.

So, while maybe 13-20 year olds might just have a collection on their hard drive, the rest of us, the majority, have physical collections. And it's these collections which easily outmatch the average hard drive collections.

More than likely physical collections and hard drive collections will coexist because of the nature of the need for something physical, and making sure our collection doesn't become entirely corrupted by a computer fault or virus.


Could not agree more, well stated!
I don't see the comfort sitting in front of my computer and watching a movie nor do I want such an ugly object in my viewing distance of my home cinema,
much more prefer my XA2 and projector. And yes, I too like having a physical collection of movies.
Old 11-14-07, 09:24 AM
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Human beings like to collect things. It's part of our nature. And one aspect of that is having the physical proof of our collection, whether just to look at and admire, or to show off to our friends. Physical movie storage formats aren't going anywhere in our lifetimes. Rentals will be replaced by downloading, but ownership will not.

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