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Sony CEO Sees 'Stalemate' in Disc Fight

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Sony CEO Sees 'Stalemate' in Disc Fight

Old 11-09-07, 01:23 PM
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I think if Sony had released one version of the PS3 at launch for $399, they'd be better off today.
Old 11-09-07, 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by dharding

Color me partisan, but if someone is admitting this publicly in an official capacity, I think that things are far worse off for Sony/BR than we thought.
Ive been reading reactions all day, and it is nice to hear some humility from Sony for a change. But I also wonder if they will try to spin out of this, that he was misquoted, taken out of context, etc.
Old 11-09-07, 01:29 PM
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Originally Posted by justbarelymovin
I just feel like the last consideration in all of this is the benefit of the consumer. I will continue to buy both formats, but it's just irritating. I wish a clear winner would surface.
You knew that when you got into the next-gen disc formats. The benefit to consumers has been the last consideration from the very beginning... but it didn't stop people from jumping in anyways.

Consumers had one chance to make a statement... and that was to avoid both formats. Enough consumers made the statement, "I don't care how many hi-def formats there are, I want hi-def discs NOW!"
Old 11-09-07, 01:59 PM
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Still don't see why BD fans think this is all doom-and-gloom. Unless Nielsen data is way off.
Old 11-09-07, 02:15 PM
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Did everyone from the HD DVD section of AVS forum end up here or something???

When in the world did this comment by Stringer mean that Blu-ray is admitting defeat? Stalemate = BOTH formats losing. And it's true. Both will be forgotten in 4-5 years. Both sides completely screwed it up.

It's time for both sides to just come up with a new format and just abandon all this silliness. Neither is going to win, period. The winner will be downloadable movies.
Old 11-09-07, 02:28 PM
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I expect that their 'estimates' in regards to places like Wal-Mart, might be a little off last week due to the sale. Those might have spurred POP purchases that were not 'estimated'...on the other hand, with a % of these being second players and future gifts, there may have been less POP software purchases than was expected.

The problem I have always had with Blu-ray has been in the faith that it could scale efficently to a mass market format.
If demand for movies stagnates and hovers at a very low % of PS3 owners, and the numbers only go up slightly while the attatch rate further decreases as new owners come in...then the format doesn't have much long range viability as I see it. It will remain expensive (for someone) to produce.
HD DVD just doesn't suffer from the same problem here- with the ability to switch to DVD production on lines at will- and that to me seems to suggest it is an economically smarter choice as far as an investment in manufacturing goes- especially in what looks to be a down economy in the future.

You don't want to be taking on massive debt, with high interest, to build manufacturing capability if the product demand is not growing at a substantial enough pace and/or that anticipated demand can't be offset thru other means...like improving the yield rates or cycle times on the already built Bd lines.

As for the PS4...I wouldn't be surprised if that were not backward compatible with both DVD and HD DVD. The capability to play DVD (with their different datal layer depth compared to Bds) means that HD DVD should also be possible with minor tweaks/additions.

At that point, Sony could gracefully exit from a sinking ship (the money pouring in thru the holes is actually high interest on R&D and launch debt) and have all their bases covered...with the exception of not getting royalties on the media- unless they cut some kind of deal with Toshiba to phase out Bd (as a movie delivery vehicle) at some specific point in time.

Last edited by Paul_SD; 11-09-07 at 02:34 PM.
Old 11-09-07, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Grimfarrow
Did everyone from the HD DVD section of AVS forum end up here or something???
There seems to be great deal of revelatory statements today, some as expected making a storm out of a single raindrop.

I don't know Mr.Stringer personally and I was not present at the time when the interview was taken. So, the certain request in this thread that I tell people what to think should be negated. Allow me to ask a question however: do all of the people who claim here that SONY has admitted defeat also agree that another recent interview is indicative of the fact that WARNER is now firmly on course to become BR-exclusive?

Suffice to say my opinion on the war remains the same -- "neutrality" is damaging and working only in favor of the scenario described by Grimfarrow above. Rest assured today's and recent sales data point out that stalmate is far and away from where HDDVD is. Of course on this forum there is no doubt that they have already turned the tide and won the war.

I simply choose to wait until Q4 plays over, analyze the data, and then comment.

Ciao,
Pro-B

Last edited by pro-bassoonist; 11-09-07 at 02:38 PM.
Old 11-09-07, 02:36 PM
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It sounds like if this guy had been the CEO before the formats arrived there would be no war. What a shame.
Old 11-09-07, 02:36 PM
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ah yes...the ole "if we don't win, everyone is gonna lose" song.

It's a Bd standard and never gets old.
Old 11-09-07, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Paul_SD
ah yes...the ole "if we don't win, everyone is gonna lose" song.

It's a Bd standard and never gets old.
After reading the interview I did not change my opinion on the matter, never have. In fact, ever since I started posting on this subforum I have always been against neutrality. As I have always been in agreement with the possible doom scenario Grimfarrow describes above. If you believe that I have changed my tune please feel free to locate and supply a post/quote that proves it.

Ciao,
Pro-B

Last edited by pro-bassoonist; 11-09-07 at 02:45 PM.
Old 11-09-07, 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by PopcornTreeCt
It sounds like if this guy had been the CEO before the formats arrived there would be no war. What a shame.
hindsight is 20/20. Nobody was going to let up on the issue of disc structure separating the two. If they did they would say goodbye to all potential royalties (or at least the lions share of them). And how could each side tell if the other wasn't bluffing about their apparent readiness to effectively produce and market the technology?
Would Stringer have seriously said to his board "you know, we know this technology works and is good...but we don't want a fight, let's give away half the store before anyone fires a shot"?
Bulls#it.
It was a high stakes game and Bd called Toshibas bluff- and Toshiba wasn't bluffing.

Stringer realizes the company's pursuit of Bd as the next standard has put them up to their ankle in quicksand, and they just hope forwand momentum will let them work their way out of it fast enough before they are in real trouble.
Old 11-09-07, 02:53 PM
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Pro-B, I never said you changed anything.
That is the same song I've been hearing from Bd supporters since the format launched.
They never suggest that they phase themselves out of the picture for the benefit of HD adoption...its always "just you guys go away and everything will be rainbows and ponies"

Bd was supposed to be this dominating juggernaut...and yet it whines like a little girl about having to compete for judgment in the marketplace...as if its paper specs meant that "daddy was supposed to buy me the title".
Old 11-09-07, 03:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Paul_SD
ah yes...the ole "if we don't win, everyone is gonna lose" song.

It's a Bd standard and never gets old.
Obviously fanboyism has taken rationality away from most HD DVD AND Blu-ray fans.

This is the reality - neither formats will gain popular acceptance the way it is. You are blind if you think Disney and Fox will suddenly switch to HD DVD if the software ratio increases on HD side. Likewise, Blu-ray fans are blind if they think Warner will suddenly become exclusive. NONE OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL HAPPEN.

Microsoft and Apple remain the smartest in the war - and they barely spent a dime.
Old 11-09-07, 03:28 PM
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What I find so compelling about this situation is the softened tone. It's really grabbed my attention because the attitudes I've witnessed have been a HUGE issue for me, greatly influencing my overwhelmingly negative opinion of Blu-ray specifically and Sony as a whole. As has been pointed out already, in past months Sony has been very outspoken -- to the point of outright arrogance -- about the inevitible win that their format would enjoy. This new statement represents a drastic change of attitude, and a welcome one at that. Here's hoping it continues.
Old 11-09-07, 03:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Grimfarrow
Did everyone from the HD DVD section of AVS forum end up here or something???

When in the world did this comment by Stringer mean that Blu-ray is admitting defeat? Stalemate = BOTH formats losing. And it's true. Both will be forgotten in 4-5 years. Both sides completely screwed it up.

It's time for both sides to just come up with a new format and just abandon all this silliness. Neither is going to win, period. The winner will be downloadable movies.
When did Sony admit they were at a stalemate with HD DVD in the past. I'd love to get that link from yah.

Both sides coming up with a new format? Oh yeah, that'll go over just fine. I'm SURE consumers will be so ready to jump on new totally new format bandwagon after being fucked in the ass.

As I've said earlier, I hope both Sony and Toshiba can work something out, because they will need each other if there is no clear consumer demand for one specific format.

If more

Last edited by DVD Polizei; 11-09-07 at 03:35 PM.
Old 11-09-07, 03:33 PM
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This is a serious question and not meant as a format war (I have both HD-DVD and BD players and DVDs).

Since BD holds a lot more than HD-DVD, why is it that they're comparable when it comes to quality? Is it that the TVs are not advanced enough to take advantage of it? Or is BD better in quality than HD-DVD? It also all depends on the transfer, of course. But technically speaking, isn't BD supposed to be better because of the extra space?
Old 11-09-07, 03:35 PM
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I have to say that i am not an HD DVD fanboy, but Sony has done it's absolute best to turn me off as a consumer. The way they've handled this "war" as well the release of the PS3 has all but disgusted me.

When you read and listen to the interviews from Sony execs and publicists, you can't help but come away with a feeling that they simply don't care about the consumer, and i am a consumer. Now I'm not saying that HD DVD makes me feel all warm and snuggly and loving, but in my opinion, they have a much less F U attitude. I think they understand business a little better and are applying that to making HD DVD more consumer friendly (cheap) and more accessible.

I just can't help but think Sony's elitist attitude and pride has clouded their judgment on what is best for them in a consumer driven market. They haven't lost yet, but i would like to see that happen to them. Bring on the Betamax!
Old 11-09-07, 03:40 PM
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Originally Posted by GatorDeb
This is a serious question and not meant as a format war (I have both HD-DVD and BD players and DVDs).

Since BD holds a lot more than HD-DVD, why is it that they're comparable when it comes to quality? Is it that the TVs are not advanced enough to take advantage of it? Or is BD better in quality than HD-DVD? It also all depends on the transfer, of course. But technically speaking, isn't BD supposed to be better because of the extra space?
BD and HD DVD are the same quality-wise. They use the same codec for most of their releases.

However, in the case of Alexander DC for example, on HD DVD, it's on two HD DVD discs. On BD, I'm assuming it could be just one (depending on if their dual-layer BD can handle it), so in that case, BD would be "better" because it only requires one disc, but the quality would be the same.

And I don't know if any current BD could hold more than 60GB on one dual-layer BD disc. I'll need someone who knows more about BD to chime in here. I think it's 50GB for a BD-DL disc.

Overall, most movies don't need the extra space BD offers (I could be wrong so BD owners might comment). For long epic movies, yes, BD comes in as the winner. Most movies, when encoded with VC-1 which is the standard for most movies released today, does not need anything over 30GB or so. Most movies don't go over 120mins, and I'd even guess the majority are around 100mins in length. Movies like Troy, Alexander, Kingdom Of Heaven, would benefit from a larger capacity, but you need to factor in if you would need two BD discs anyway.

From my own viewing experience, I have about 35 HD DVD movies and they look superb (some more than others because it's the quality of the film itself). I'm not sure if, say, a higher bitrate above the standard ~20Mbps for HD would show an improvement.

I wish I could buy a BD player and play BD discs, but I just can't afford two formats. That's the bottom line for me, and many others. If Sony can drop their players to $100 and their BD movies to $10, I'd change my mind.

Last edited by DVD Polizei; 11-09-07 at 03:52 PM.
Old 11-09-07, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Paul_SD
Pro-B, I never said you changed anything.
That is the same song I've been hearing from Bd supporters since the format launched.
But your post certainly implies it. And since I am a BD supporter then I don't see how you could claim the exclusion you made.

The fact of the matter is that the majority of the remarks in this thread reveal precisely the same degree of blinded favorism as the one SONY is blamed for. Furthermore, there isn't a single mention of the fact that SONY isn't BLU-RAY. There are other members of the BDA who consistently back the format and have gone on record supporting its long term viability. For example TDK and Panasonic are just as committed to the war.

On the opposite side of the spectrum there is only one company that has been brought forward to defend HDDVD. In fact looking at the simple generalizations in this thread where consistently Toshiba is placed against SONY tell me that indeed separation is either not seen or not understood by those who support HDDVD. With other words while Toshiba is the life and support of HDDVD SONY isn't, there are other players in the BDA that are equally powerful. Unless of course you live in a fantasy world where Matsushita somehow dwarfs in comparison to SONY.

Ciao,
Pro-B

Last edited by pro-bassoonist; 11-09-07 at 03:44 PM.
Old 11-09-07, 03:44 PM
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I think with a "finalized spec" that most people pine over that Blu-Ray is the way to go. You have a large capacity disc that offers a very protective coating, unlike HD-dvd. There is really nothing intrinsic to the HD-dvd discs that make them any better than Blu-Ray. I understand that many people don't like Blu-Ray or will not support it because of their perception of arrogance from Sony. Do people forget who is backing up HD-dvd? Microsoft is a very arrogant company as well. People are willing to overlook this and instead focus their glare on Sony. From what I see now Blu-Ray software is still outselling HD-dvd and until that changes I don't think there is a lot to create a stink about.
Old 11-09-07, 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted by DVD Polizei
BD and HD DVD are the same quality-wise. They use the same codec for most of their releases.

However, in the case of Alexander DC for example, on HD DVD, it's on two HD DVD discs. On BD, I'm assuming it could be just one (depending on if their dual-layer BD can handle it), so in that case, BD would be "better" because it only requires one disc, but the quality would be the same.

And I don't know if any current BD could hold more than 60GB on one dual-layer BD disc. I'll need someone who knows more about BD to chime in here.
I So the thing is that the best quality codec out there doesn't take up more room than an HD-DVD can hold? I'm trying to figure out how the quality is the same when the sizes are different.
Old 11-09-07, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by GatorDeb
I So the thing is that the best quality codec out there doesn't take up more room than an HD-DVD can hold? I'm trying to figure out how the quality is the same when the sizes are different.
I added more to my original post.

Well, remember not all movies will need the entire space available on HD DVD or Blu-ray (BD) discs. For example, you have a movie that is 20GB in size. This movie would fit on a HD DVD dual-layer disc, and it would fit on a BD disc as a single layer. So, even though there is a lot of space not used, it doesn't matter, because the movie didn't require it in the first place.

So, when you say how can the quality be the same when "the sizes are different", you're referring to the available capacity a disc has for a particular movie, but not the movie itself.

For example, Harry Potter on HD DVD and BD. If they are encoded the same (which most BD and HD DVDs are since they are using VC-1*), they will be the same size, but will be on different formats, who's discs support different available capacitues.

*Some BD and HD DVD discs have different audio codecs so the capacities will vary a little.

Now, we can get more technical and find out if the bitrates are the same when movies are ported over to BD and HD DVD (because a higher bitrate means more space needed--but I'm assuming in most cases for BD and HD DVD, it is insignificant other than the audio differences), but I don't have those numbers, but some reviewers here might. I do know http://forum.blu-ray.com does have a list of bitrates, but since most titles are unique to BD, it may not help here. However, it's a good read, and I just came across the site myself. There is the one-sided comments of course, but beyond that, there is some really good information about BD.

Last edited by DVD Polizei; 11-09-07 at 04:09 PM.
Old 11-09-07, 04:06 PM
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Right, I'm referring to BD holding more than HD-DVD. So I guess the answer to my question and what it comes down to is that movies are not big enough yet in order for BD to be superior, so when it comes to quality, both of them are the same quality right now.
Old 11-09-07, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by DVD Polizei
When did Sony admit they were at a stalemate with HD DVD in the past. I'd love to get that link from yah.

Both sides coming up with a new format? Oh yeah, that'll go over just fine. I'm SURE consumers will be so ready to jump on new totally new format bandwagon after being fucked in the ass.

As I've said earlier, I hope both Sony and Toshiba can work something out, because they will need each other if there is no clear consumer demand for one specific format.

If more
The problem is that most of you are way too zealously biased in this format war to see that, frankly, you guys are 1% in the total market for new media. Sorry, these companies WILL "fuck you in the ass" by abandoning you BD and HDDVD fanatics in a blink of an eye if a new format can be worked out that will capture the rest of the 99%. Who cares about angry fanboys when you have the mass market to capture? And the new format doesn't necessarily have to be disc-based either. But at this rate it most likely won't be either the HD DVD or BD that you all so treasure.

Seriously, you early adopters are used to getting screwed over by new tech anyways. And you will do it again despite it all - these companies know it.
Old 11-09-07, 04:08 PM
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Originally Posted by GatorDeb
Right, I'm referring to BD holding more than HD-DVD. So I guess the answer to my question and what it comes down to is that movies are not big enough yet in order for BD to be superior, so when it comes to quality, both of them are the same quality right now.
The extra space on a Blu-Ray affords you the ability to have additional extras on one disc, but more importantly large lossless soundtracks (PCM, True-HD, DTS-MA), which can't be ported over to a second disc since it obviously has to run concurrently with the movie (see Transformers).

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