What if both formats failed today?
 

Let's take a what-if. Let's say that there's a joint press conference between all the movie studios and CE companies and they say "We're sorry but the format war is over. Neither won. We're going back to DVD and we'll continue doing video on demand. But as of today we won't make any more HD DVDs or Blu-Ray Discs. Thank you!"

Any releases after today are cancelled. All releases up to this point you can still have.

Overall, would you be happy with your purchase? Would you sell everything or pick up the other format, even knowing its dead?

I'd have to say I would be disappointed with the (imagined) decision but I wouldn't be unhappy with what I own so far. I would probably slowly acquire all the other movies I'm interested in just so I have a nice HD collection and maybe even buy a couple of Blu-Ray discs for future use.

As it stands I would've spent roughly $40 per movie, considering hardware costs. That's very high but it's like going to the theatre twice and I would eventually see all these movies at least twice (some I've already seen three times).

Id either

A. sell everything quick, go buy those old movies on SD-DVD at a pawn shop for $3 each, and profit

B. Buy the shit out of HD-DVD when stores bottom out the price.

Either way id feel like a winner.

When firesale pricing came around, I'd buy a couple of HD-DVD players and the titles I wanted and pick up another BD player since the hardware will fail. I did this with laserdisc and now all four of my players are having issues. I'd also pick up computer drives for both formats (an option obviously not afforded to laserdisc) for my HTPC which would extend the formats lifespan a little more.

If we say both formats die at the end of this year, I'd probably have around 150-200 BD/HD-DVD's so that would give me some HD stuff to watch though a lot of my faves have not been released on either format. I would be disappointed in that regard.

I wouldn't be happy about it, but we'd be able to make the best of it by still enjoying the PS3 as a game machine. I'd probably get some more Blu-Ray discs if there were closeout prices.

You don't actually think this could happen do you?

1. This will not happen
- Just a quick look at the Amazon top #100 has:
#22 Children of Men (Combo HD DVD and Standard DVD)
#32 Casino Royale [Blu-ray]
#33 Happy Feet (Combo HD DVD and Standard DVD) [HD DVD]
#46 The Complete Matrix Trilogy [HD DVD]
#47 Happy Feet [Blu-ray]
#49 Planet Earth - The Complete BBC Series [HD DVD]
#58 The Ultimate Matrix Collection [HD DVD]
#98 Planet Earth - The Complete BBC Series [Blu-ray]

2. Why would anyone sell their HD discs and downgrade to DVD?

Yep, it would be very hard to go back.

I would be fairly happy with my HD collection since Ive had it a while and my A1 is still a pretty good upconverting dvd player... Ive only had my ps3 for a week and only 3 movies so I would be a little angry.

Well this could at the very least half-happen... as one format may be discontinued.
I have been holding out... but I often think about what would happen if I bought early and into the wrong format. I would be pissed... mainly at myself for buying early.
So I would sell it all off for whatever is the winner.
I would have to eventually buy into the true next format. No sense in using up space/power/connections in my home theater on a box that is going nowhere. Also because now that box is a trophy of my bad decision-making. I'd have to get rid of it.

I do enjoy OnDeman HD at home. I wouldn't be devistated if that won over both formats... but it would have to go on a subscription pricing structure and have a consistent, much larger library for that to happen.

That doesn't make sense.

And then what if Microsoft and Sony came to your house and gang-raped your pets right in front of you? I'd tell you what I'd do. I'd enjoy the discs I have. If Universal decided to halt all HD-DVD production and support from other studios dwindled, I'd still have had a hell of time. I would also never buy another SD disc again. Oh, and I'd get new pets.

:thumbsup:

That's what I would do too. :up: Selling the titles I already have and going back to the SD versions would be silly.

At any rate, I'm fairly certain that Sony would still support the PS3 as a gaming system for some time. So even if BD failed as a format for releasing films, dependable BD players, in the form of the PS3, should still be around for a while.

No. I would say, at worst, the HD formats (collectively) will rival laserdisc. In 2 or 3 years, I don't see any reason why new releases (of new movies) wouldn't sell well in the HD format. By that time HD discs will be regularly $10-$20 and the hardware will be in the affordable range: $200-$400 or less. HDTVs should also be nice and big (30-40") for a great price ($500 or so).

I'd say even without the format war, if you average out everything (PS3 can play it, Xbox add-on can play it, hardware is $750), you wouldn't have more than twice the response you have now.

Hopefully a new format would soon emerge and the powers-that-be would realize how important a single format is and work towards that goal....wishful thinking!

If it happened, I would lose all interest in the movie industry and go back to other hobbies I have. I won't go back to buying dvds with worse picture/audio quality.

Hear, hear. I stopped buying DVDs last summer as soon as I got an HD DVD player. I'll still buy some independent DVDs that I don't see as being released in HD (a lot of Criterion stuff, Motel) but the last big-studio DVD I bought was Borat and before that it was something during the last big DDD sale (I think). And I used to buy 1+ title per week.

Thats true, I have been buying TV stuff still. I think the only movie on DVD I have purchased in the last year was The Wizard.

Well I can answer this one. Because I don't see much benefit to HD discs that I can only play on one player in my house. The benefit is so marginal over standard DVDs for me that I prefer the convenience of regular DVDs.

(Note: Yes I am displaying on a 50" Plasma yadda yadda I am getting full benefit of my HD discs, just don't personally see them worth the extra cost/hassle.)

The only movie I purchased on DVD in the last year was Transformers: The Movie -- and it looks like shit. :eek:

I was hoping we'd see TF released in HD to coincide with the new movie, but I guess not. :(

Well, it's still early. The movie doesn't come out in theaters until July, and we don't know of any titles being released in that month yet (do we?). Besides, some tie-ins are done with the video releases rather than the theatricals.

That said, I still don't think it's coming, but dream away. :)

I would cry like a little girl.

But since at least 1 will prevail, I'm covered. Neither likely will be as popular as DVD, but as long as it's enough to release day & date titles plus the studios' huge back catalog of older films, that's fine with me. For formats that are so early on in their infancy, it's good to see that we're not just getting new releases. Casablanca, Forbidden Planet, Bullitt, Blazing Saddles, The Thing, among others. I realize both formats have released some crap titles, but at least we're getting some classics as well. Although BD still favors the action genre. But we hopefully will be getting Lawrence of Arabia from Sony sometime this year.

If both formats failed today?

I would be out hundreds of dollars that's what!

Katzenberg also had a dim view of the prospects for the two competing high-definition DVD formats, Blu-ray and HD DVD, saying that for the average consumer the difference in quality between standard DVD and the hi-def models is too slight to make a difference. He also forecast that movie sales via Internet downloads over the next 18-24 months would be "negligible.

Saw this on IMDB today.