Warner Downgrades HD Forecast
10-07-06, 04:19 PM
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Warner Downgrades HD Forecast
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6378909.html
Warner Home Video has adjusted downward its projections for consumer spending on the new HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc formats this year, citing limitations on the availability of high-definition hardware.
The studio said consumers spent just $30 million on high-def hardware and software through September, about half what Warner forecast would be spent in the period.
The studio said consumers spent just $30 million on high-def hardware and software through September, about half what Warner forecast would be spent in the period.
10-07-06, 04:28 PM
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Funny that the article keeps referring to "high-def hardware" when it's really not "high-def hardware" all-inclusive. It's BD completely as the next paragraph shows.
One wonders what will happen after those players come out. What if buying still does not go up?
In presenting the studio’s revised research at the High Def 101 conference here Friday, Warner senior VP of market management Steve Nickerson said spending slimmed because most manufacturers delayed high-def player launches.
When Nickerson presented the studio’s forecast earlier in the year, Pioneer, Panasonic, Sony and Philips were among those expected to have launched Blu-ray Disc players by now. All those companies are now anticipating October through December launches. Panasonic players did start shipping to specialty electronics stores at the end of September.
Going into the fourth quarter, restricted PlayStation 3 quantities should continue to hinder early high-def revenue.
When Nickerson presented the studio’s forecast earlier in the year, Pioneer, Panasonic, Sony and Philips were among those expected to have launched Blu-ray Disc players by now. All those companies are now anticipating October through December launches. Panasonic players did start shipping to specialty electronics stores at the end of September.
Going into the fourth quarter, restricted PlayStation 3 quantities should continue to hinder early high-def revenue.
10-08-06, 01:28 AM
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This is a pretty clear statement from Warner that Bluray has sold a fraction of what they expected and that they don't expect this situation to reverse.
HD DVD sales are mainly carrying the other half of the forecast left over...
That's quite a big statement - basically letting the industry know that Bluray have let the side down...
HD DVD sales are mainly carrying the other half of the forecast left over...
That's quite a big statement - basically letting the industry know that Bluray have let the side down...
10-08-06, 03:21 AM
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I'm still stuck on this ....
Nickerson continued to be bullish on consumer adoption of high-def home entertainment formats, however. In four years, high-def DVD should have market penetration of 100 million hardware devices capable of playing high-def media, compared to 35 million standard DVD players four years after standard DVD’s launch, he said.
10-08-06, 08:41 AM
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Originally Posted by HiFiLux
This is a pretty clear statement from Warner that Bluray has sold a fraction of what they expected and that they don't expect this situation to reverse.
HD DVD sales are mainly carrying the other half of the forecast left over...
That's quite a big statement - basically letting the industry know that Bluray have let the side down...
HD DVD sales are mainly carrying the other half of the forecast left over...
That's quite a big statement - basically letting the industry know that Bluray have let the side down...
10-08-06, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by joshd2012
Interesting analysis. Care to point out where he singled out Blu-Ray as the problem child and commended HD DVD for its success?
In presenting the studio’s revised research at the High Def 101 conference here Friday, Warner senior VP of market management Steve Nickerson said spending slimmed because most manufacturers delayed high-def player launches.
When Nickerson presented the studio’s forecast earlier in the year, Pioneer, Panasonic, Sony and Philips were among those expected to have launched Blu-ray Disc players by now. All those companies are now anticipating October through December launches. Panasonic players did start shipping to specialty electronics stores at the end of September.
When Nickerson presented the studio’s forecast earlier in the year, Pioneer, Panasonic, Sony and Philips were among those expected to have launched Blu-ray Disc players by now. All those companies are now anticipating October through December launches. Panasonic players did start shipping to specialty electronics stores at the end of September.
Last edited by HiFiLux; 10-08-06 at 11:07 AM.
10-08-06, 11:09 AM
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The original estimate from WB was for more HD DVD sales this year than BD. If they've since halved their estimates it stands to reason a good chunk of that is due to less than steller movement on Toshiba's format. The reason given for their revised figures is just spin common to all political statements.
10-08-06, 11:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Burnt Thru
The original estimate from WB was for more HD DVD sales this year than BD. If they've since halved their estimates it stands to reason a good chunk of that is due to less than steller movement on Toshiba's format. The reason given for their revised figures is just spin common to all political statements.
10-08-06, 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted by DthRdrX
I'm still stuck on this ....
Nickerson continued to be bullish on consumer adoption of high-def home entertainment formats, however. In four years, high-def DVD should have market penetration of 100 million hardware devices capable of playing high-def media, compared to 35 million standard DVD players four years after standard DVD’s launch, he said.
“Despite the two different high-definition formats, sales of compatible hardware devices will be much faster for high-def than for standard-definition,” Nickerson said.
“Despite the two different high-definition formats, sales of compatible hardware devices will be much faster for high-def than for standard-definition,” Nickerson said.
10-08-06, 01:28 PM
#10
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Originally Posted by Burnt Thru
The original estimate from WB was for more HD DVD sales this year than BD. If they've since halved their estimates it stands to reason a good chunk of that is due to less than steller movement on Toshiba's format. The reason given for their revised figures is just spin common to all political statements.
Last edited by DthRdrX; 10-08-06 at 01:48 PM.
10-08-06, 02:34 PM
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No. The original estimate from WB was for more HD DVD sales than BD. The rest is simple maths. Statements like those made in the article are often used to try and explain wildly inaccurate economic reports. Don't believe everything you're told.
10-08-06, 05:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Burnt Thru
The original estimate from WB was for more HD DVD sales this year than BD. If they've since halved their estimates it stands to reason a good chunk of that is due to less than steller movement on Toshiba's format. The reason given for their revised figures is just spin common to all political statements.
10-08-06, 06:43 PM
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Originally Posted by lizard
I don't know what Nickerson is using, but it must be some pretty spacey stuff. 100 million "devices" by 2010 seems like a stretch to me even counting game machines and computer drives, neither of which will be used much for movie watching. I am still guessing "niche market" for HD DVD/Blu-ray. Hope that I am wrong though.
Blu-ray and HD DVD have to find niches, but hopefull the HD video niche will be a larger one than laserdisc. It really should be much larger, but we won't know until player prices are lower.
10-08-06, 07:09 PM
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Originally Posted by darkside
Blu-ray and HD DVD have to find niches, but hopefull the HD video niche will be a larger one than laserdisc. It really should be much larger, but we won't know until player prices are lower.
