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Originally Posted by RockStrongo
That said, it IS purely opinion on how well it will sell and also how it would be used from both points of view, but some BD supporters basically claim that the war will be over when the PS3 is released.
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Originally Posted by Eric D.
Most of my friends who had a PS2 and used it for DVD only ended up getting around 10 movies total.
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Originally Posted by RoboDad
Where there has been significant disagreement is whether that market will be realized. Jay believes it will be. Others of us don't.
The key word here is enable. The fact that a game console enables playback of a movie format, any movie format, does not automatically support the conjecture that a) movie playback will be a motivating factor in the purchase of a statistically significant number of consoles (ie, people purchasing said console because it plays movies) b) any consumers who purchase the console primarily for gaming will be motivated to purchase movie titles to watch on it. |
Originally Posted by Zman
You think daddy is going to want to keep shelling out that much money, then have his little buddy still ask for movies that cost 10 bucks more then SD?
http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm I have a good group of gaming buddies (closing in on 20 now) that frequently play games on the 360 together and the PS2. Only 1 (ONE) of them uses his PS2 or 360 to watch dvd's. Why? Simple, they have dedicated equipment to do that. None of us are buying a PS3 for the BD player either. We know how junky they are right now. If you REALLY think that someone is going to drop $900 bucks to buy a PS3, movies, games, and accessories, you're dead wrong. There will be a VERY VERY small minority that drops that kinda load on a VG system. why would any of us think that Sony and their rah rah camp will have their game face on and BD be fixed by the time the overpriced BD/PS3 comes out? I'll await the 50gb, VC1 someday... |
Originally Posted by Jay G.
He's going to buy a $700 car? That thing's going to be a junker.
Plus, if you drove a brand new car when you were 16, then that explains why you aren't alarmed by the ps3 price. As far as the adoption ratios, I now see what you are saying. However the only chink in the whole plan is getting the PS3s out there, which may prove to be a challenge for Sony, it seems. Finally, that "survey" is ridiculous. For the average age of gamers to be 33, there would have to be millions of people older than me who are hardcore gamers to offset all the children and teens that play. I can say I know -2- people older than me (34) that play video games regularly. That survey is shit. |
Originally Posted by Jay G.
He's going to buy a $700 car? That thing's going to be a junker.
Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
If you think you a) be able to get a PS3 for $700 or b) think you'll have anything to PLAY on that PS3 for $700 you're crazy. Retailers tested the waters with XB360 and they now know that to get the system, early adopters will buy just about any shit they bundle with it. Bundles were close to $1K for the 360. He's been saving all summer, but if he buys a PS3 then he'll have to save a while longer to get the car. $700 is a pretty big chunk of change to me, and I make far more than minimum wage.
Plus, if you drove a brand new car when you were 16, then that explains why you aren't alarmed by the ps3 price. As far as the adoption ratios, I now see what you are saying. However the only chink in the whole plan is getting the PS3s out there, which may prove to be a challenge for Sony, it seems... |
Originally Posted by Josh Z
Didn't Sony already announce that they'd be including copies of The Fifth Element with their Blu-ray player? If they were to bundle something with the PS3, I'd expect it to be that.
Maybe BD is Sony's way of ripping themselves apart very publicly, and we all got fooled into thinking it was a serious business venture. |
Originally Posted by Jay G.
The average price for BD is under $20 currently. The price difference between thw two is not $10.
http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm |
Originally Posted by Jay G.
joeblow's numbers of 60% of 360 owners having HDTV seems to disagree with that statement, it seems there is more crossover than you think.
And who are the people these profiteers are going to be selling to? People with a large amount of disposible income. If someone is able to afford paying a premium just to get a PS3 a little earlier, they probably have enough disposible income to afford HDTV and BD movies as well.
Originally Posted by Jay G.
The Popular Science review posted is probably a lot of people's first exposure to negativity about BD, and even that article reccommends sitting out completely instead of purchasing HD-DVD.
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Originally Posted by RoboDad
wouldn't you agree that such negative press will cause many, many PS3 owners to do just that -- namely, pass on BD discs until things shake out a bit more?
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Amir is making some interesting comments about Disney, VC1 and...possible involvements with HD DVD. ;)
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&&#post8297359 |
Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
If you think you a) be able to get a PS3 for $700
or b) think you'll have anything to PLAY on that PS3 for $700 you're crazy. Retailers tested the waters with XB360 and they now know that to get the system, early adopters will buy just about any shit they bundle with it. $700 is a pretty big chunk of change to me, and I make far more than minimum wage. Plus, if you drove a brand new car when you were 16, then that explains why you aren't alarmed by the ps3 price. As far as the adoption ratios, I now see what you are saying. However the only chink in the whole plan is getting the PS3s out there, which may prove to be a challenge for Sony, it seems. Finally, that "survey" is ridiculous. For the average age of gamers to be 33, there would have to be millions of people older than me who are hardcore gamers to offset all the children and teens that play. I can say I know -2- people older than me (34) that play video games regularly. As it stands though, here's some more info from the site: http://www.theesa.com/facts/gamer_data.php For Console Gamers... * Forty percent of most frequent game players are under eighteen years old. * Thirty-five percent of most frequent game players are between 18 and 35 years old. * Twenty-five percent of most frequent game players are over 35 years old. At first, it looks like kids are the largest segment. However, if you lump the other two into one, people over 18, they are the larger segment. It also shows that 18-35 year olds make up almost as many gamers as kids, while those over 35 aren't nearly as large. However, considering that the over 35 segment could consist of a few people in their 80s or 90s playing game, one can see how the average age could get skewed that far. Which is why it's important to understand the difference between average age and median age. |
Are PS3 games really going to be priced between $70 and $100? If that's the case the case this system is dead already. The masses aren't going to drop a c note on a video game. As someone with a decent amount of disposable income I can't see spending that kind of cash on a game when I could spend nearly half that much for comparable games on the 360 or PC.
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PS3 games will be priced the same as Xbox360 games. Sony is not completely crazy. However, everyone will start doing the $69.99 limited edition releases to really try and cash in.
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Actually, the Sony exec in charge of video games said he could easily see the games costing up to $100 per game.
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Originally Posted by RockStrongo
Also, you have to remember that the 360 addon drive will also be selling. If MS cuts the price of the 360 and the addon is $200 or less, it will sell well. They may pass their 10 million mark.
IF MS has 10 million units sold by end of year, and 10% of those buy the addon drive, thats a million PROBABLE HD-DVD purchasers. Its almost guaranteed that they will buy the media. Remember, that most of the criticisms people have applied to the PS3 would apply to the 360 and the add-on. Namely: 360 owners don't have HDTVs, 360 owners don't have it hooked up to their HDTV, 360 owners are gamers and thus not interested in HD-DVD. Now, I've offered my arguments againts these for PS3, and a lot of them could apply to 360 as well. Except.... BD on PS3 is manditory, HD-DVD on 360 is not. Even those that don't initially want BD movies will get that functionality with their purchase of PS3. A good number of people may buy BD movies becase, well they have an HDTV so why not? With Xbox 360, people purchasing the HD-DVD drive are going to be dedicated HD-DVD consumer, but that's the only type of consumer that's going to get it. The 360 add-on will be missing the many casual or occasional BD consumers that the PS3 can generate due to the lack off need for an add-on. So who's to say how many 360 consumers will buy it? I had to fight tooth-and-nail to argue for a mere 5% of PS3 buyers using BD, and I feel 360 add-on adoption might be less than PS3's BD consumer base. |
Originally Posted by The Bus
That's funny. The link pretty clearly states the average price is around $22. Maybe you were thinking of third-party sellers. Which is no surprise as BD has lower resale value.
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Originally Posted by RoboDad
I don't think owning an HDTV at this point in time is any indicator of having significant disposable income.....
But if the review does recommend waiting, then wouldn't you agree that such negative press will cause many, many PS3 owners to do just that -- namely, pass on BD discs until things shake out a bit more? |
Originally Posted by Jay G.
I think you've offered the best point on this thread in a while. The HD-DVD drive for 360 also has to be factored in. The question is, how?
Remember, that most of the criticisms people have applied to the PS3 would apply to the 360 and the add-on. Namely: 360 owners don't have HDTVs, 360 owners don't have it hooked up to their HDTV, 360 owners are gamers and thus not interested in HD-DVD. Now, I've offered my arguments againts these for PS3, and a lot of them could apply to 360 as well. Except.... BD on PS3 is manditory, HD-DVD on 360 is not. Even those that don't initially want BD movies will get that functionality with their purchase of PS3. A good number of people may buy BD movies becase, well they have an HDTV so why not? With Xbox 360, people purchasing the HD-DVD drive are going to be dedicated HD-DVD consumer, but that's the only type of consumer that's going to get it. The 360 add-on will be missing the many casual or occasional BD consumers that the PS3 can generate due to the lack off need for an add-on. So who's to say how many 360 consumers will buy it? I had to fight tooth-and-nail to argue for a mere 5% of PS3 buyers using BD, and I feel 360 add-on adoption might be less than PS3's BD consumer base. Except that each 360 add-on adoption means guaranteed media attachment. Any individual PS3 purchase does not guarantee it. In fact, the add-on players will most likely have a HIGHER rate of attachment per unit due to the fact that people have to make the conscious decision to buy it, and since all it does is play HD DVDs, they will want to make use of it. By making BD part of the PS3 in the box, some people might buy a disc or two out of curiosity, but many likely won't even know it's a capability the PS3 has. |
Originally Posted by Suprmallet
Actually, the Sony exec in charge of video games said he could easily see the games costing up to $100 per game.
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/new...php?story=9901 June 29, 2006 Sony Computer Entertainment America president Kaz Hirai ....suggested that: “Generally speaking, over the past twelve years or so, there has been a consumer expectation that disc based games are maybe $59 on the high end to $39 on the low end. So, what I can say now is, I think it would be a bit of a stretch to think that we could suddenly turn around and say ‘PS3 games now $99.99’...... if it becomes a bit higher than $59, don't ding me, but, again, I don't expect it to be $100.” I used $60-100 as a range, since we don't know for sure, but it's very likely to be around $60, possibly a little higher than $60, but almost definitly less than $100. |
Originally Posted by Suprmallet
Except that each 360 add-on adoption means guaranteed media attachment.
Any individual PS3 purchase does not guarantee it. By making BD part of the PS3 in the box, some people might buy a disc or two out of curiosity, but many likely won't even know it's a capability the PS3 has. |
"If it's higher than $59, don't ding me."
Fuck that, man. Sony is charging $600 for their system that includes a shitty, can't get its act together format that I wouldn't pay $10 to have in my home, and now they're saying they could see the games being more than $60? $60 is already too much to pay for a video game, in my opinion. Since buying my 360 in December, I've only bought a handful of games. I would have bought more if the prices weren't so damn high. There's no way I can support a system where the games cost more than $60. That's my limit. And $60 is only for the absolute must have games. And I'm not the only one who feels that way. On an unrelated topic: Freak, I think you're reading too much into amir's post. Microsoft worked with Disney to create iHD, but Disney still went with BD. I don't think using VC-1 will suddenly make them release on both formats. |
Originally Posted by Jay G.
As The Bus pointed out, PS3 owners will already own the ability to play the discs, so their hesitence on the discs themselves will be significantly reduced.
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Not anything that should surprise anyone
http://www.fantasticdamage.com/blog/hdformat1.gif
Now that we've got a lot of titles selling in each format, why don't we compare them against each other? Here's what we're looking at: I track the average of a basket of titles that are available in DVD, Blu-Ray, and HD-DVD. Unless noted, they are all similar releases, and I track only the best-selling widescreen edition DVD of the film. 8/16/06 (1 title tracked): Kiss Kiss Bang Bang tracked 8/22/06 (2 titles tracked): Training Day added 8/24/06 (4 titles tracked): Rumor Has It... and Good Night and Good Luck added 8/25/06 (6 titles tracked): Mission: Impossible III and Mission Impossible: Ultimate Missions Collection added The graph speaks for itself. The drop in DVD's ranking occured as older titles like Training Day were added. DVD still vastly outsells either format, even in catalog titles like Training Day. Occasionally, the new formats will sell very well abnd outpace the average of their predecessor. This is especially true with the Mission Impossible box set, where both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are both outselling DVD. Keep in mind that of the HD-DVD titles tracked currently, half of them are combo releases priced $4-$8 higher than their Blu-Ray counterparts (which in turn are $7-9 higher than the regular DVDs). As more titles are added to Amazon's catalog, I will expand this to include them. |
Originally Posted by RoboDad
One more time...you are only speculating. You have no way of knowing whether this will be the case or not.
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Thanks, Bus. I enjoy the info. :up:
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Is it known how many of any given title are sold on Amazon each day, or what the difference in sales rank translates to in terms of units sold? Maybe it's 100 units. Maybe it's 1. Does anyone know?
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More BD50 woes
Does this mean that the PS3 can't play BD50s? It would explain why the PS3 isn't in production yet (to tie two threads together)... They don't have much time to get it working if the PS3 is supposed to street 11/17/06. How could Sony be having trouble with playing BD50 with their prototype players if the PS3 can play them? Hmmmm....
From The Digital Bits
Originally Posted by Bill Hunt
And get this: Sony STILL can't get their 50GB dual-layered Blu-ray Discs to work right on the existing and prototype players. The current Samsung player, as shipped, will not play them. How do you like them apples? Ouch.
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Originally Posted by awmurray
Does this mean that the PS3 can't play BD50s? It would explain why the PS3 isn't in production yet (to tie two threads together)... They don't have much time to get it working if the PS3 is supposed to street 11/17/06. How could Sony be having trouble with playing BD50 with their prototype players if the PS3 can play them? Hmmmm....
From The Digital Bits |
Originally Posted by Burnt Thru
Is it known how many of any given title are sold on Amazon each day, or what the difference in sales rank translates to in terms of units sold? Maybe it's 100 units. Maybe it's 1. Does anyone know?
Amazon makes about $9 billion a year. (It's making more now, it made less last year). Of that, $3 billion is media sold in North America. Since that includes books (more expensive than movies usually), and Amazon is primarily known for selling books, I'm willing to give movies a 15-30% share of that $3 billion. So, Amazon sells $450-900 million in DVDs per year. Figure average price is $15-25 (many are less, many are more), and they sell 18 to 60 million DVDs per year, roughly 40 thousand to 160 thousand per day. That's one way to estimate it. DVDs that sell extremely well in a year will sell about 20 million copies. Shrek 2, I think, sold about 24 million. Give Amazon a 5-10% marketshare of DVDs, and they sell 3,000 to 6,000 of these titles per day, consistently. (Obviously, these DVDs are heavily pre-sold or front sold). You figure at the very best, in a day, any DVD in the top 10 will sell 10,000 to 25,000 copies. Maybe a few will crack 50,000 or more but these aren't statistically significant as this might happen four or five times a year. Based on all these estimates, I'd say movies in the first tier sell 10,000 units, in the second tier 1,000 units, in the third tier 100 units, fourth tier, dozens of units, and fifth tier, single units. But that's a wild but educated guess. |
Interesting article...
http://www.dvdtown.com/article/beyon...raystory/3914/ Beyond the Hype: A Blu-ray Story A look at the status of the HD war and the propaganda used to convince the consumer to buy in. Who just talk and who delivers? Will we ever see dual layered Blu-ray discs? By Henning Molbaek With the launch of HD-DVD back in April and Blu-ray in June, we have since seen the first battles in the HD format war. We have also seen something else that is very common in war: Propaganda. Both sides have told us again and again why they are superior and unbeatable. The slogan used for Blu-ray has been "Beyond High Definition." One might think that this meant that you would get "more" with Blu-ray compared with other HD alternatives, including HD-DVD. So the world held its breath when the first Blu-ray discs and hardware were launched in June. It was time for the format to speak for itself and show once and for all that it was "Beyond High Definition," and that HD-DVD was just a bump in the road before world domination. What happened is very much another story. The reviews for Blu-ray have been mainly negative, and the format's biggest sales argument--storage--is not yet a reality. Sony just can't get the technology to work properly, and currently Blu-ray has less storage than its competitor, HD-DVD. When asked by "Video Business" about the problem, Sony Pictures Home Entertainment worldwide president Ben Feingold said, "Sony will release at least two Blu-ray disc titles on higher-capacity 50GB discs this year." We have heard this before so forgive us for being a bit skeptical about the claim. Sony and others have been working on Blu-ray since the dawn of DVD, making sure they where ready with a new format when DVD was close to retirement. Strange that after ten years of development, they still can't get it to function outside the lab. However, it is a great way to buy some time for the company and keep the press busy writing about things that are coming instead of things that are. You can't help thinking that this is much like what Microsoft has been saying about VISTA for the last three years, and we are still waiting for that one. While Toshiba's HD-DVD has had problems, especially in the beginning, the company has been more effective in getting problems solved. Today, Toshiba and HD-DVD have hardware that works and discs that play. So it is hard not recommend HD-DVD over Blu-ray at the moment. A person can buy an HD-DVD player for as low as $449; yet you have to pay $999 for the Blu-ray player. HD-DVD offers amazing picture quality and sound that is often better than current Blu-ray releases. It also offers a vast selection of extras on many discs, including new features like the in-movie experience, something we have not seen on Blu-ray, where you often get bare-bone releases. If the Blu-ray camp don't want to lose this thing before it gets started, they have to deliver and they have to deliver soon. I for one am starting to get tired of empty promises on how the technology should work. As an example, on the official page for the high-priced PlayStation 3, you find Sony saying that Blu-ray can hold 100GB of storage on a four-layered disc. My advise to Sony: Spend your money on getting your dual-layered discs working before advertising about theoretical four-layered discs. Stop the hype and let the product speak for itself. We are waiting patiently...but not forever, because there is another guy in town, and he actually delivers on his promises. |
Might I suggest a new slogan for Sony: HD-DVD might be hot shit now, but next year when I go to college I'll have more pussy than I can handle.
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Ray on HD DVD went to #63 on Friday or Saturday. It is at 445 right now.
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More wonderful Sony news...
---As far as Software is concerned, none was shown from Sony. A Review of the Liepzig Game Convention, Europes biggest Gaming Convention, think E3 in the USA. Full Story at the Link http://gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=19300 There was no Sony conference in Leipzig this week, and the only announcement to emerge was a desultory ten pound price cut to the PlayStation 2, a console which was already being unofficially discounted by many retailers anyway. Certainly, there's an argument that Sony should save itself for the inevitable PS3 blitz the Tokyo Game Show in a few weeks' time, but quite frankly, given the intense negativity surrounding both the company and its forthcoming console in the specialist media - much of which is leaking over into the mainstream press as well - it should be using every opportunity available to it to present PS3 in a positive light. Consider this: Leipzig was an opportunity for Sony to show off software a full three months closer to completion than its E3 demos, a chance to let people get their hands on the new motion-sensitive controller for PS3 and experience it for themselves, and a chance to talk about its launch software line-up.... Instead, it did none of these things. There is no playable PS3 code in Leipzig, not even the recycled E3 demos which many other companies have wheeled out to the public here. Instead, there is a pretentious booth where bored consumers can lounge around and peer at rolling demos which they already saw on the Internet several months ago. Three months from the launch of the PS3, Sony needs to start bringing people on board, or risk the Xbox 360 realising stellar sales while the PS3 is still being held back from mainstream consumers by launch demand and limited numbers. At Leipzig this week, the firm made no new friends - and regardless of the strength of its brand or the installed base of PS2, both of which are indisputably key factors in the next-gen battle, Sony still needs friends far more than either of its rivals do at the moment. |
Originally Posted by digitalfreaknyc
Certainly, there's an argument that Sony should save itself for the inevitable PS3 blitz the Tokyo Game Show in a few weeks' time
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Remember..... the gaming revolution doesn't start until Sony says so. rotfl
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just wait for the TRUE launch, it's coming.
Don't worry, it's coming.... I swear it... oh forget it. |
Originally Posted by Jay G.
The more expensive PS2 lists for $599.
Games are going to be around $60-100, so $700 can buy a system and one game. Bundles will exist, but you're stretching credibility to suggest that all PS3s will be only available in bundles. Anecdotal evidence is the worst type to try and project from. Just because you don't know any older people that play games regularly doesn't mean they don't exist. The only way to truely discount the survey would be to either find another, more accurate survey, or find flaws in their collection methods. As it stands though, here's some more info from the site: http://www.theesa.com/facts/gamer_data.php For Console Gamers... * Forty percent of most frequent game players are under eighteen years old. * Thirty-five percent of most frequent game players are between 18 and 35 years old. * Twenty-five percent of most frequent game players are over 35 years old. At first, it looks like kids are the largest segment. However, if you lump the other two into one, people over 18, they are the larger segment. It also shows that 18-35 year olds make up almost as many gamers as kids, while those over 35 aren't nearly as large. However, considering that the over 35 segment could consist of a few people in their 80s or 90s playing game, one can see how the average age could get skewed that far. Which is why it's important to understand the difference between average age and median age. If they are polling who BUYS games, I can see that data being accurate. It just is not accurate about who is PLAYING games. There is no way there are more people 18 and older playing games than those under 18. No way. |
Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
It just is not accurate about who is PLAYING games. There is no way there are more people 18 and older playing games than those under 18. No way.
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Agreed. I have seen that reported in numerous places.
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