Check back in December.

Here is how I see it....if Sony ends up with any kind of backlog, it will probably constitute lagging sales. I say that because the 360 is at 10 million units and still isn't sitting in huge amounts most places. I think Sony will consider lagging sales if they don't sell at least as many PS3s as the 360 in the same time period. Judging by how high they are on their place in the industry, I would even think that merely doing as well could be seen as lagging, at least to them.

Personally, I could not believe when I had read that the 360 had that many units out. Amazed me.

Nope. In fact, I think a significant percentage of PS3 users will, at least intially, have little to no interest in BD video. However, given the sheer volume of PS3s planned to ship, even a small percentage is a significant number.

For example, HD-DVD shipped 20,000 units by end of June. Let's assume that number quadruples by end of the year, and all those units sell, making a total of 80,000 units. Given Sony's stated numbers of 4 million PS3s by the end of the year, if only 2% of PS3 users use it for regular BD video use, they've just matched HD-DVD users with just the PS3.

Yes, but at what attachment rate? The attachment rates on HD DVD players have been absurdly high. If 2% buy 3 titles each, that won't be enough to match HD DVD. Especially not by the holidays.

Xbox 360 had shipped 5 million units so far as of last month. 10 million is their projected shipments by November, which is slightly optimistic.
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060721-7321.html

Microsoft shipped only 1.5 million units by the end of last year. Sony plans to ship more than that amount by launch, while planning to ship more than triple that number by the end of the year.

Again, due to the sheer volume of PS3 units expected, even a pathetically low attachment rate can match HD-DVD in number of discs sold.

Based on the same number of hardware units from my last post, an average attachment rate of 0.2 BDs sold per PS3 would match an attachment rate of 10 HD-DVDs sold per player in terms of units sold.

And that's still not counting any other BD players.

I have to say, i am shocked at how amazingly well Jay G is responding to the HD-DVD fanboys attacking him. Well played sir. I especially love the 2% of ps3's = all of HD-DVD comment, then someone replys saying "YAH BUT HOW MANY WILL BUY MORE THEN 3 MOVIES" blah blah. Amazing how blind most people on this forum are.

Bravo to you.

p.s. - Im going to buy 4 BD movies when i get my ps3 just to spite supermallet LOL

Actually, Blitz, what you're perceiving as a man defending himself against attacks is actually a person making a point, and another person making a counterpoint. That is called a discussion. It's not what you engage in. You make wild unsupported statements and then get shocked--SHOCKED!--when people dismiss you and ridicule you.

And you can buy 4 BD movies when you get a PS3. I'll be happy at home knowing you just wasted your money on badly encoded discs which will be played on a video game system.

And good luck getting that PS3, by the way. Maybe I can sell you one, just $3,000.

Mallet.

I already have my PS3 reserved and accounted for. Thanks for your concern however! And i appreciate the warmness you are offering to anyone not backing your opinion 100%, you're the greatest, dawg.

Look at my conversation with Jay. It wasn't a fight, or a shouting match. I didn't call him names. But you came in here, took one of my points, and said it was just "Blah blah blah." YOU threw the first punch, and again, seemed shocked--SHOCKED!--that I would retaliate in kind. If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. You are no martyr.

Edit: And welcome to my ignore list. Jay, we can still chat.

This is so flawed it's not funny. Every single solitary HD-DVD player (including the XBox one) is guaranteed to move HD-DVD media. There is no other reason to buy one aside from movies. The dedicated BD decks fall into this category as well. Ps3 DOES NOT. There is no certainty that the BD deck in PS3 will translate into media attachment. The PS3 owner's "media dollars" will be, at best, split between games and BD movies.

I've said it for a long time; the adoption rate of the software is way more important NOW than the adoption of the hardware. HD-DVD's lower MSRP helps media attachment.

The more I hear about delays, and the higher prices for games, etc. the less I think that PS3 will be a success. As noted, it will be 2008 before the unit sees a price drop, and XB360 will surely have a drop in that time. PS3 will have two much cheaper competitiors both with less expensive games.

One area that BD is whippin HD's ass so far is public perception. By that I mean in the course of a night, I see at least two or three commercials that mention Blu-Ray. Tweeter mentions BD in their ads on the radio. Their media penetration is better. HD-DVD needs to pick it up on this end if they want to keep up.

Of course they used to mention movies on DVD and UMD but now there is no mention of UMD anymore...

I think the big HD DVD ad campaign starts up in a few weeks. I'm sure we'll start seeing an aggressive push at that point.

Did Sony move their estimates up? I thought we both agreed the "2MM at launch, 2MM more in 2006" was their real estimate.

Im sure it will. But, that doesnt matter. Like you said, all electronics drop in price.

The production cost for the PS3 is still higher than previous gaming systems. So, it will remain at a high price for a while. Even if it drops in price, the Xbox and Wii will probably always be priced lower.

In the past, Sony has driven price. Now, the shoe is on the other foot.

This is a good point, and I think one that HD-DVD needs to address...Still, price has a good way of counteracting this, and I really think this is the angle HD needs to push the most.

I'm starting to track titles on Amazon released in all three formats (DVD, HD, and BR). I think it's too early to show any graph(s), but, I will give you this juicy tidbit:

Mission:Impossible - Ultimate Missions Collection
HD-DVD Sales Rank: #108
Blu-Ray Sales Rank: #9103
DVD Sales Rank: #13419

Good idea, The Bus.

However, that specific title (MI collection) is not going to be a big seller for SD DVD, because a lot of people have the previous MI DVDs already.

For example, look up Mission: Impossible III separately. I've found the following sales:

DVD (2-disc collector's edition): #356
HD DVD: #1117
DVD (1-disc fullscreen): #2089
DVD (1-disc widescreen): #2685
Blu-ray: #35706

So the HD DVD is outselling both single-disc DVD editions and is outsold by the collector's edtion. And puts Blu-ray to shame.

Grub: I'm tracking that one too. I want to wait until I've got ~5 titles or so each with a week of data. At this point, it doesn't mean anything. Obviously, DVD is ahead of HD-DVD which is ahead of BR.

The main reasons most people upgrade their video game consoles have nothing to do with image resolution. New consoles promise better graphics and enhanced gameplay. Most gamers will feel satisfied with those two qualities regardless of whether they're playing on an HDTV or the 21" set in their basement.

I think this entire argument is nonsensical and based on anecdotal evidence at best. Both sides are right and there's no conclusive way to determine which is a majority.

That makes more sense. I couldn't believe the 10 million figure when I heard it. Hell, the 5 million figure still surprises me.

The biggest reason I take that with a grain of salt is because Sony planned a lot of things to happen at launch, including when it would happen, that haven't come true. MS did the same in terms of numbers they said would ship, however. If there are 2 million units by the end of the year, including launch, I will be surprised. But I also think that is a fine number.

I quoted 10 million 360s by the end of its first fiscal year. That happens in november. They're on track to have 10 million units by then.

It would be interesting to know what percentage of gamers who have, or will have, the 360 and PS3 will have it hooked up to an HDTV. I know mine would be, but I see a lot of 360s and other consoles relegated to areas of the house where women do not reside, and most seem to have an HDTV (if they have one) in the main room. I have mine in my Man Room because I know my wife wouldn't notice any difference in quality anyway. :lol:

Thats been my argument too....alot of sales this christmas for the 360, Wii and PS3 will be for kids. How many kids have hdtvs in their rooms?? I suspect very, very few.

Also, based on pricing, it will be interesting to see how many 360s are sold when people have to choose between the PS3, 360 and Wii.

PS3 sales will not be a clear picture as to who will be buying BD media. Whereas, HD-DVD addon for the 360 will be a better gauge of gamers who want to watch movies on their gaming system.

While the HD-DVD add on sales would certainly reveal the number of gamers interested in watching HD movies on their gaming system, those purchases would not necessarily translate into HD-DVD software sales.

Take me (360 owner) for instance.

I have been resistant to dipping my toe in either the HD-DVD or BD pool, because I think this format war is BS.

However, a $200 HD-DVD add on for the 360 is tempting because that is just about getting cheap enough to make it a "what the hell, give it a shot" purchase. That add on *might* make it to the X-Mas list, but it would also, more likely than not, be the only step I take during the format war.

It would be the only step, because even if I got it, I don't see myself investing a dime towards purchasing any HD-DVD media. I would just Net-Flix the titles I'm interested in until a clear winner emerges.

I completely agree and thats why I said that it would be a "better gauge". Honestly though, even someone who buys a Toshiba A1 or the Sammy BD player might not be purchasing software. They might be using bb online or Netflix also.

That said, its more likely that someone buying the 360 hd-dvd addon will be purchasing movies than someone buying a PS3.

When the editor of the official Playstation Magazine says that she plays games on a small SDTV and doesn't care about HD compatibility, to my mind that's a fairly good indicator of their target audience. Also, go into just about any video game discussion forum online (including the one on this site) and see how many people care about HDTV. I guarantee they'll be in the minority.

People who have old generation hardware and dont have a HDTV are of course going to be the majority. Not everyone has a Xbox 360 (5 mil sold world wide so far), and not even all of those have HDTV's. That being said, the entire POINT of moving up to a next gen experience to a lot of gamers out there is to get into High Def gaming and along side with that, if you are a movie fan, is high def film versions of your fav flicks. If no one wants High Def, there wouldnt be a need for new Plasma and LCD plants to be built all around the world year after year.

Reality is, there IS a demand, and people are waiting to see where the dust settles before they go in. This holiday season will set the presedence of what the 07 holiday season will be about. Either people will go full on into the HD gaming with the 360 and PS3 leading the way, and either of the movie formats or both doing well, or the Wii will be ontop, and High Def will just be an afterthought. Going by the # of HDTV's, the reaction people have to seeing Fight Night 3 in HD at best buy and among people in my life i know, HD is where its going to be.

However, this is of course, my opinion. We shall see whats going to happen come a few months from now.

Who knows if they will stick to it, but looks like Sony is planning to release 2 BD50 movies by the end of the year....

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6365717.html

Speculation on titles??

Spider-Man 1 and/or 2 seem an obvious choice. Maybe EOY is too early with SM3 coming in May.

Those 2 would be the most obvious pushes for the PS3 from Sony.

Has there been any rumor or a BD pack-in with the PS3 like they did with UMD and the PSP?

Someone on avs thinks it will be the Black Hawk Down and Sense & Sensibility discs since they were delayed. Makes sense.

weren't those one or two of the first titles to help push UMD?

Charlie's Angels was the first BD disc mastered, and was rumored to be heading to a pack in deal with the PS3, but we have heard nothing since and the title still has no release day.

Those are the reasons people have upgraded in the past, largely because increased resolution wasn't part of the equation at all. PS2 didn't offer any increased resolution at all, while Xbox had that as an option on some games. With Xbox360 and PS3, increased resolution is a major factor in why to upgrade.

The analogy with PS3 works much better with PC upgrades rather than past video game upgrades. PC users are much more familiar with the idea of upgrading for increased resolution, and have spent hundreds to thousands on their systems over the years to upgrade or buy new systems to play more advanced games on them. And a lot of PC gamers tend to be video game players as well, so the factors are there.

I'm not saying that all PS3 buyers will have HDTVs, or even that most will, at least right away. And I'm not saying that all of those with HDTVs will use their PS3s on them, just most of them. And that's my reasoning behind those statements. If you an provide a rational reason why you think the majority of HDTV owners who buy a PS3 will not hook it up to their HDTV, I'd like to read it.

Interesting argument, but not really appropriate for this thread, since this is BD vs. HD-DVD, not PS3 vs. 360 vs. Wii.

I thought it was a "free-for-all"? ;)

Specifically, a "vs. everything else" free-for-all! :D