kinda reminds me of that old aol messageboard vcr or dvds? I remember people violently defending vcrs on that forum like 7 years ago. ah the memories when the internet and dvds were new.

It be many, many years IF HD discs ever surpass DVD.

There's still some people out there who are VHS obsessives and won't even go near DVD... check this thread out on the IMDB:
http://www.imdb.com/board/bd0000009/...72161#59272161

rotfl

Me too. I'm an old fart who doesn't have Tivo or a DVR, so I tape Law and Order off of TNT almost every day.

Are you kidding? If? Have you ever seen a HD-DVD compared to a DVD? I didn't think there was that much difference before I myself got an HDTV. The difference is so obvious that I've decided not to even buy a DVD again. HD-DVD all the way for me, once people start to get their HDTV's, they'll be looking for a high def dvd player as well. Remember how expensive DVD players were when they first came out, then steadily dropped in price? Same thing here.

The same thing goes with VCR compared to DVD, DVD is vastly superior to VCR, but people still buys them.
A lot of people think that HD will be a niche market for years to come, and I tend to agree with them.

Just like 12" vinyl LPs continue to sell well here and in Europe.

Chris

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Wasn't DVD also supposed to be a "niche" market when it first came out? No one with a VCR wanted to update their hundreds (or thousands) of VHS tapes to DVD's. Same for DVD's. I think it's a little bit different here though, high def players have backwards compatibility, you couldn't jam a DVD into a VCR and make it play. I think high def players might be taking over DVD's sooner than you think. With the $200 price point for the HD-DVD add on for the 360, and with Blu-Ray being bundled in the PS3, Millions of homes will have a high def player inside of it.

Yes, but not necessarily an HD TV to watch the discs on. Another factor besides the dueling formats that probably helped kill SACD and DVD-Audio was the fact that they didn't sound any different if you didn't have the proper speaker setup. A DVD-Audio through stereo speakers is practically indiscernible from a CD, and an HD-DVD or Blu-ray disc isn't going to look much different from a DVD if you're just watching through S-Video outputs on a standard analog TV.

Because of this, it won't matter that both formats are miles ahead of DVD -- only the people who have the equipment required to fully appreciate the potential of these formats will see their true value. That means that people who buy an Xbox 360 or PS3 for gaming purposes won't see much of a point in buying high-def movies if they have the consoles hooked up to standard TVs, which could really put a dent in the perceived value of both formats, and consumer motivation would take a really big hit.

I almost think it would be better if HD-DVD and Blu-ray players would <b>only</b> connect to HD displays, so while that more than doubles the initial investment required, it would ensure that people who try the format out won't go "eh, looks the same to me" if they don't have a display capable of showing them much of a difference. When DVD was introduced, you had the added convenience of the durable disc medium with random-access capability and bonus material, but HD-DVD and Blu-ray offer little more than better picture quality, huge though the improvement may be. For that reason, the chances of either format edging out DVD the way DVD killed VHS, or even surviving at all, are pretty slim.

...in my opinion. ;)

I agree with you Mike. I don't think it's a given that HD-DVD or Blu-Ray will eventually overtake SD-DVD. Obviously something will eventually replace DVD, but it's not necessarily going to be either of those two formats. It's going to be awhile before the majority of Americans even own an HDTV. Then there's the format war bullshit. If one of them doesn't decisively oust the other in the next year or two it's likely both will fail altogether and something else will emerge from their ashes. But something's got to give first before either can even remotely hope to overtake SD-DVD as the top dog format. One thing that would help is if they started packing the HD releases with more stuff than the SD version. If they all had everything the SD releases had plus a load of exclusive bonus content, that might help sway consumers once the players start becoming a little more ubiquitous (with the further "penetration" of PS3's and XBoxes).

now heres an opinion that may be wrong but i think there were 2 reasons why the dvd became popular:

1. better picture quality and easier access to scene selection and overall playability of the show.

2. the fact that with the dvd it has given studio the chance for people to buy season sets of there favorite tv shows which i don't think vhs ever did. they have had best of tv shows on vhs but not a full season or a complete series.

now being that hd-dvd and blu-ray (don't include picture quality) are basically the same, it doesn't have that same wow! factor as dvds dvd when they first came out.
now the reason i don't like hd-dvd or blu-ray (i don't hate it and i dont hate hd) is because it is making the average consumer choice not knowing which one to buy altrough the mass majority is probally going to see who wins the format war or if they will both self destruct.
they arn't selling that well, i when to best buy a week ago and the salesperson said that they havn't sold 2 yet.
so thats my opinion.

Yes, I have, but that's not the point. Many of us on this forum seem to think everyone else in the world is an A/V enthusiast.

DVD is just now passing VHS (nearly 10 years later) - and yet, DVD required no HDTV. In case you forgot, MOST people do not own HDTVs - nor will MOST people own them anytime soon. Most people would have to have an HDTV before HD disc even had a chance to pass DVD...(many people who own HDTVs today don't even have HD programming!) and even then it would be tough because most people seem to think DVD is "good enough." Look how many DVDs are priced at $3.99 to 9.99 these days. It's going to be hard for people to pass these up. They are happy with a $50-100 Samsung player.

VOD may be the "thing" before the HD format war mess is over and mass people start wanting to see HD movies on their HDTVs. In addition, there has been a number of articles about how retailers and studios aren't happy with the HD DVD/Blu-ray sales. Even though it's early, not a great sign.

DVD also had the advantage of everything being a sell-through, instead of just the handful of big popular titles. So you could buy any new release for a normal price on the day of release instead of having to contend with a 6 month to 1 year rental window where the movie could only be purchased through a few select distributers (not in B&M's) for $90-100 a pop. Also, they were largely OAR widescreen, which was the exact opposite of VHS where most everything was cropped fullscreen and widescreen tapes were typically twice as expensive and hard to come by in most instances. And then there's the inclusion of all the bonus material. Very very few VHS tapes featured any real bonus content save for trailers (and those were almost never for the actual movie, but rather for "coming attractions"). I'd go so far as to say the bonus content is probably the second biggest draw for DVD's above VHS after the improved picture quality. I think that even trumps the direct scene access/no rewinding or fast-forwarding aspect.

NO!!! Never! ;)

Well, once "visual commentary" starts showing up on HD-DVDs, that might lure some people, but it's just not that new of a concept. It's easily done on standard DVD, the only stumbling block is space, although two SD DVDs are probably cheaper to produce than one HD-DVD. Besides, if people who buy the standard DVD edition feel like they're getting cheated out of bonus stuff that's only found on the HD version, that could cause a pretty major backlash, especially since that stuff could have easily been on both versions.

What HD-DVD and Blu-ray need is something only they can offer. Anything that is only better because it can hold more data and therefore gives you a better picture is only going to appeal to people who can already appreciate the difference, or don't mind upgrading. As far as I know, neither HD-DVD or Blu-ray have any kind of "killer app", or rather "killer feature" that only that format can offer. Everything studios offer on their HD releases can just as easily be included on the standard DVD, and sometimes even in the exact same quality, since many bonus features are still SD.

That said, I think "combo discs" are a step in the right direction. I'm anxious to buy HD discs, and "combo discs" are the perfect excuse, since I can at least play one side of them in the players I have now.

Sorry, that's wrong. It hadn't exploded the way TV on DVD has, and you wouldn't see them on retail shelves as much for space reasons, but a lot of shows were released in their entirety on VHS, either in individual volumes or big boxed sets, and those that weren't done by the studios were offered by Columbia House, although that program shut down before they had finished offering all the episodes for many of the shows.

you know now that i think of it your right. i remeber a&e release a whole avengers set on dvd and i know that cause i have one. i also remember when columbia house released shows on vhs but now they mostly sell dvds and there vhs club is not as big as it used to be (still available in canada through)

Good point. Maybe they should be designing these formats from the ground up with a focus on "what's not so great about DVD?" and "what do we wish DVD could do or have that it doesn't?". Because right now HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are more like what DVD-A and SACD are to CD, not what CD's were to Cassette Tapes or to Vinyl.

I don't believe I ever said that people owning a PS3 have an HDTV. I simply stated that millions of people will have a high def DVD player in their home.


I completely understand what you are saying, but try to understand what I am saying. It took 10 years for the DVD to finally surpass the VCR, and a lot of people were stubborn to take the leap to DVD because of their VHS tapes. I think this is the same way. I think a lot of people will be stubborn to switch to HD, but it will definitely happen. Just think, 43,000+ bought the HD-DVD add on in the first few weeks it was out. Plus people are upgrading to HDTV's every single day. I think high def DVD will do just fine.

Between the ROM drives, burners, players, and recorders, there are nine DVD devices in this place. As recently as last month, I recorded constantly to VHS (my vast collection is evidence of that). But when my VCR of five years gave out, I decided it was time to upgrade. From what I've heard, Sony is going to stop manufacturing VCRs next year (too expensive to upgrade them for incoming technologies), and other companies will likely follow before long.

With VCRs dying out, my goal has shifted from building my VHS collection to converting the VHS content I don't want to lose to DVD. Got a DVD recorder, along with a new VCR to be used exclusively for playing tapes. I record new content on DVD only. And although DVD is superior in just about every way, I actually miss VHS in a strange way. I've used tapes for years, and I've been very comfortable with them. It's an adjustment.

Have no intention of buying into any high definition format for a long time to come. Certainly not until after the format war is over, and the winner has emerged from the settling dust. I'm not an early adopter of new technology, and HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray appears to be VHS vs. Beta, round two. As others have noted-- and I hope they're right-- SD-DVD will probably not be replaced by either format for many years. In the meantime, I'm very happy with plain old DVD.

--THX

43,000 sold true - but let's see how it does for the next six to 12 months.
DVD through September has already sold about 12.5 million units
(http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articl...dvdsales.html).

People had great reason to replace VHS. With DVD, you had something smaller and thinner - and they looked like CDs which were already very popular. You no longer needed to rewind, and had much better audio and picture quality (for those who really cared). I mean there were good reasons to upgrade.

The only reason for the masses to upgrade to HD DVD or Blu-ray is mostly for better picture quality (most are lucky to even have a 5.1 audio set-up or let alone care about TrueHD) and these people are not going to spend hours playing with interactive extra gimmicks despite what the marketeers want to push.

Again, with DVD, there were *practical* reasons to upgrade for the masses.

One last thing; people had VHS for over 20 years in many cases. They were prime for a new format. A lot of people only started buy DVD within the last five to seven years. They are NOT ready to buy into another format so soon or consider upgrading hardware and software so quickly.

I'm not saying there is no chance HD DVD or Blu-ray can't reach the masses one day - I'm just saying it isn't going to be easy at all - and both formats could fail - time will tell and I hope it does not happen. I think no matter what happens, HD DVD and/or Blu-ray will be a niche for the next several years.

As far as DVD too -- I think it'll stick around -- at least for a lot of smaller releases or more independent/international films where AV isn't as much of an issue (or due to print quality really wouldn't matter) -- the pricepoint for manufacturing them has got to be much less as well.

Bingo.

Um, yes, I read your post. I am saying that player saturation means very little. Yes, it might breed familiarity with these strange new discs, but if the millions of Xbox 360s and PS3s aren't hooked up to displays that will show an obvious difference between standard DVDs and HD-DVD/Blu-ray, consumers aren't gonna get that they really are far superior to DVDs, and once those game systems are obsolete, they won't stick with the formats. In fact it probably won't take more than a couple movies purchased and viewed on an analog TV to make Joe Six-Pack give up because DVDs are cheaper and play on more than just that one piece of hardware in his home (i.e., he can play them for the kids in the minivan, in his bedroom, etc.) His assumption that they aren't any better than DVDs will of course be incorrect, but without an HD-ready TV, he'll never know that.

Demo units in retail stores obviously show people what the new formats are capable of, but if people don't want to re-buy films on DVD that they already have on VHS, the motivation to buy a new TV when their current one works just fine is virtually nonexistent. Your argument that a $200 add-on for a game console is a cheap way to get into hi-def is kind of like saying all you need to burn DVDs is a $50 DVD-R drive. If it does you no good if you haven't already spent a couple hundred for the base system, you're not saving much over buying a dedicated HD-DVD or Blu-ray player.

Spot on, David. As I see it, the best case scenario is that HD-DVD and Blu-ray will be the 21st-century equivalent of the LaserDisc. Of course if you factor in the format war, it's more likely that they'll end up being this week's DVD-Audio and SACD.

Oh, and if anyone thinks a format can survive on better picture quality alone, I have two words for you... S-VHS and D-VHS. ;)

Dude I think your on the money with your comments.

There are people in my family and at my job who aren't that big on change. When DVD came along even they were ready for a new format since vhs had been around so long. Now just as they're getting used to DVD and component inputs they are being told they have to move up to hdmi to get the most out of blue-ra/HD-DVD after they've invested time and money into getting a dvd player and tv with component input.

I think blue-ray/hd-dvd came along too soon.

You also probably have alot of consumers who aren't to happy being told that dvd was hi-def only to to be told now "No. Blue-ray/HD-DVD is "true" hi definition."

You may be right about that, but for the studios it is a matter of survival to come out with the latest and greatest as soon as possible. They are counting on early adopters to the HD camp, whether it's HD-DVD or Blu-Ray.

And they know that there are still a lot of people out there that haven't jumped on the DVD bandwagon that will continue the life of DVD for at least another 5 years or so.

We are seeing a decline in the sales of DVDz because they have saturated the market at this point and they need a new cash cow (HD) to keep the money flowing in.

I for one do not have a problem with this scenario because it's not like all current DVDz are now obsolete and we are being forced to upgrade (like a computer?). Most people (the regular consumers) are more than happy with DVD and probably won't go to HD DVD for at least 5 years or so.

These are all just opinions and not based on any fact. Come back to me in 5 years and we'll see if I was right or wrong! :D

Chris

I am going to go with 5 years hd dvd or blu-ray overtakes the dvd market, my reasoning the younger crowd wants newer technology and the price of a 50 inch hdtv lcd will under $500 dollars in 5 years. would love to revist this subject and this thread in 5 years to see what happens.

I tend to agree. HD and Blu-Ray are going to take a while before they become the new "standard". Most people don't realize the current DVD size acceptance would have been rather fine if the studios would have just put more movie on the DVD instead of marketing worthless material we know as "extras".

I sold my entire VHS collection (only about 200 tapes, a fifth of what I now have on DVD) on ebay about 3 years ago since I wasn't watching them anymore. But before I did, I spent a chunk of change to have about 30 movies that I really loved that had not been released yet put onto to dvd. I have not had a VCR since then.

Today, the only VHS burn I have left is the original Lawnmower Man, since as far as I know, the director's cut has never been released, only the theatrical with seperate deleted scenes. And since it's a generally reviled movie that most people hate, and the theatrical copy has been on DVD for 9 years with no sign of an update, I'll probably have my VHS burn for many more years.

First part yes, second part no. Early adopters will pick up just about anything new, so there's no hard-fought effort to woo them one way or another. A format is only really an asset to the creators of it if it gets into the mainstream, even a little (oh, and studios don't create formats). The creator of a format definitely needs to get it out ASAP, not because they're counting on early adopters (after all, you can have a format on the shelf for 10 years and the first people to buy it upon release are still "early adopters"), but because they have to make sure nobody else gets to market with a similar or better idea first.

If something is so esoteric and requirement-heavy as to only appeal to videophiles, it's not gonna make a lot of money for hardware and software manufacturers, no matter how much early adopters shell out right out of the gate. Early adopters could absolutely love HD-DVD over Blu-ray (the same way many videophiles preferred Beta over VHS) and if Blu-ray ends up being preferred by Joe Six-Pack, or if they had sealed an exclusive deal with any major retailer so that it was the only format available in certain stores, it won't matter if the early adopters went with HD-DVD, and it certainly won't matter which is really superior.

Although there were other reasons, the primary reason I got into DVD was because almost(not all) everything was widescreen. Then when I learned about anamorphic and 5.1 I absolutely had to have a 16x9 tv and new receiver. I still value widescreen above picture quality.

great comment! i value widescreen more then picture quality as well. i would rather get the full picture than a bit better picture quality. through i can put up with the cropped fullscreen its not the same.

Well I wonder if the DVD players in the previous generation of video game consoles factored into this survey's calculation...

And in terms of your arguement, how many people do you know relied on their PS2 or XBox as a DVD player to watch a movie? :hscratch:

They don't. Every statistic report I've ever seen for DVD player sales has specifically stated that they do not include video game consoles in their numbers. They only include standalone players and combo players (DVD + Laserdisc or DVD + VCR).


You make a valid point, especially about the practical aspects of the migration to DVD from VHS, but I think if properly positioned, people don't have look at HD DVD or Blu-ray as buying into a new format, and they certainly don't have to think of it as upgrading software. They can look at it as supercharging their existing format (and software).

Every high definition disc player manufactured for the foreseeable future (probably forever) will continue to play existing DVDs, and they will do so very well. The smart consumer, i.e. the same consumer who moved to DVD in the 1999-2001 time frame, would be looking at the new formats from the perspective that new titles should be purchased in HD, since that will be the way of the future, as opposed to worrying about replacing existing titles in their collections.

Most people replace their players every 5 years or so. Given the choice, with all else (price) being equal, why wouldn't a consumer that is considering a new player opt for a player that had the ability to handle all of their existing software as well as new, higher quality software?

The problems that remains is which format to choose, and when will the price point reach a level that more people can accept? Had the two warring camps been able to come to a compromise and release a single, unified format, I am confident that HD player and disc sales would have been dramatically stronger than they now are, and that would have helped drive player prices down much more quickly.

HD will eventually prevail, but I'm not so sure about the HD-DVD and Blu-ray formats specifically. In fact, all things considered, I think they'll probably fail in their goal to become the next predominant format. They'll falter along for awhile until one finally dies off, then the winner will sail along for awhile longer looking like the new laserdisc (i.e. a niche format). Then something else will drop that's 10x better and does have that "killer app" that gets everyone on board in droves the same way DVD did. And the studios will be more than happy to put out all their films on this new format, despite any existing commitments to the HD-DVD and/or BRD camps, once they see the potential to tap the mass market rather than a select one.