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By JOHN LIPPMAN Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
For home-theater fans, the big news lately is the imminent arrival of a new kind of DVD player -- one that promises images so good that movie lovers with the right equipment will be able to see the gun of a distant Mafioso in "The Godfather" or the faces of far-off Confederate soldiers in "Gone With the Wind."

Just one problem: Those movies probably won't be available.

Instead of many of the classics, the lists of titles many studios are preparing are top-heavy with movies such as "Catwoman," "Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow" and "Wild, Wild West." Interested in "The Lord of the Rings" trilogy or "Chinatown"? You're out of luck -- indefinitely.

By this Christmas, Toshiba, Sanyo and other companies will be rolling out new DVD players that promise to bring viewers closer to the movie-theater experience. The technology, high-definition digital videodiscs, lets them carry far more information, and therefore more pictorial detail and extra features, than do current DVDs. The machines will show the extra pictorial detail only on high-definition TV sets, and by year end that also is expected to be a big market, with 15 million U.S. homes having HDTVs. That's up from 6.3 million in 2004, according to Tom Adams of Adams Media Research in Carmel, Calif.

But thanks to Hollywood studios' strategies for rolling out movies to go with the new machines, the initial crop of HD DVDS is likely to include lots of forgettable films, rather than eye-catching classics. To be sure, the studios may fine-tune their lists, and some haven't announced any titles yet. Most releases announced are aimed at teens and young adult males, including "The Matrix" and the Harry Potter series. A few appeal largely to a young female audience: "The Phantom of the Opera" and "Save the Last Dance." Only two of the 100 first releases could be considered time-tested classics, "The Music Man" and "North by Northwest."
Why are the studios pursuing this strategy? Blame your action-movie-loving, videogame-obsessed, testosterone-fueled teenage son. Some of the movies being offered may have floundered with general audiences but they did nicely with "early adopters" of new technology, who "tend to be young and male," according to Ben Feingold, president of home entertainment at Sony Pictures. Thus, "the eye-candy movies are the ones that sell." (Sony itself hasn't come up with a list of titles yet, but Mr. Feingold says, "The catalog titles that we initially select will be chosen to demonstrate the quality of the format.")

"You pick some for box-office reasons, some for technological reasons, some for genre and some for cinematography," says Tom Lesinski, president of Paramount Home Video, explaining why such Paramount movies as "Sky Captain" (technological) and "Sleepy Hollow" (cinematography) made it onto the studio's first list of 20 HD DVD movies.

For the delay in classic titles you also can blame some superstar producers and directors, who like to hold out before releasing their movies in a new format, to make their debut as much of an event as possible. Steven Spielberg waited until last year to release his 1993 Oscar-winner "Schindler's List" on DVD: "You can only come out once and say 'first time on DVD,' " says his longtime associate Marvin Levy. He says Mr. Spielberg wanted the maximum number of DVD players in the market before making his move.

Similarly, Walt Disney is analyzing which titles are appropriate for the expected early adopters, which it also sees as young and male, a Disney spokesman says. "We're not going to roll out the 'Lion King' when you can reach only 10% of the market," he adds.

The emphasis on younger buyers comes despite the fact that HDTV ownership overall is skewed toward the older and wealthier part of the population, with 26% of households with income of more than $100,000 reporting ownership of an HDTV, compared with only 10% of households under $25,000, according to the Consumer Electronics Association.

Other problems with the new formats may dog early buyers. Remember the VHS-vs.-Betamax videocassette format war of the 1980s? By early next year, there will be two incompatible types of DVDs and players warring for market share. One is HD-DVD, which is supported by various studios and consumer-electronics companies, and comes out in time for the holidays. (Warner, Paramount and Universal will provide titles for HD-DVD players.) The other is Sony's Blu-ray, which will come out late this year or early in 2006. Sony Pictures and Disney will provide discs for that format. (Some studios, however, might initially provide titles for both formats.)

Store Squeeze

In addition, video retailers, which had to make room for both DVD and VHS, now will have to squeeze two more formats into the space. "You cannot bring two different systems into the marketplace," says Gary Arnold, senior vice president of entertainment at retail giant Best Buy. But the showdown is coming.

For many people, laying out at least $2,000 for an HDTV and a new player still is too much. That is how Cathie Sandstrom feels, but when the machines become more affordable, she'd like to see some very different films from the ones that will be first offered in the clearer formats. Walking out of a Blockbuster video store in Hastings Ranch, Calif., Ms. Sandstrom, a seller of promotional products, picks the 1971 Italian film "Death in Venice," a slow-paced study of a composer's obsessions, as her dream high-definition DVD movie. It's "like watching a series of paintings," she says. What would she not want to see? "Anything with blood and gore."

PopcornTreeCt

I think people are gonna be a hell of a lot pickier when adjusting to HD-DVD. I know I will be.

DavidH

It's going to be (5? 7?) years before many titles I want are released on HD. I mean so many of them just got released fairly recently (last couple of years).

BigDan

Is it really teens who will be shelling out the $1K for an HD-DVD player when they're first released?

Is it really teens that have driven the HDTV market so far? (even according to the article, it hasn't been)

Do teens even want Catwoman or Wild, Wild West on DVD, let alone HD-DVD?

Are the studios trying to kill the format?

Sanitarium

The whole HD on disc thing is going to be one big clusterfuck. Sales are going to be next to nothing for quite awhile till they can settle on one format.

Daniel-A

That's part of what the article was talking of (toward the end). I wholeheartedly agree, though. THere is no way either of these will make its way into my house until one of the hormats gain a considderable market share. The question I have is will the early adopters have the bountiful bargains available that the early DVD adopters had?

BigDan

I doubt the earliest adopters will have the bountiful bargains. If they come at all, I assume it would be to goose sales if they are initially disappointing.

Of course, the bountiful bargains were probably as much from the now-deceased dotcom boom as they were from the format itself.

Ahab

Just as well they are releasing 'forgettable' movies at first. Might as well wait untill it is known which format is going to come out on top before putting out too many of the great classics. Also, hopefully by then many of the production bugs will have been largely eliminated.

Iron_Giant

We are going to get the same whinning and complaining we got with the movie release on DVD.

"When is title xxx (Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Gone with the wind...) going to be released?"

"George Lucas sucks, he has robbed me of my childhood...)

"We (the customers) own the rights to the movies because we are the ones who have bought movie tickets, VHS, DVD...over the years"

The the whinning begin!

Chris777

the only thing i care about, is buying every single criterion version for either format, and selling them for big money on ebay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

slowcloud

So many reasons (by the article and the forum members) to avoid either of these new formats until one gets eliminated (hopefully not the backward compatible one), prices go down, movie selection improves and the technology is tweaked. I'll be happy to wait a few years and keep buying and pining for my favorite movies on DVD.

roger_d

Well like i said before, i've vested too much money into the format i already have, i'm not changing my system.

woofman

<-----------Is very grateful for even having his favorite movies on DVD, but will be VERY happy whenever they do come out on the next HD format.



Gratitude makes it all so much sweeter.

Qui Gon Jim

Eventually you'll have no choice. You'll still be able to play your current discs, but eventually the production of SDDVD players will stop, supplanted by economy HD models. I'd say 5-7 years.

I also think it is good that they are waiting a bit on the blockbusters to hopefully do them right. Work out the kinks so noone will get stuck with a crappy transfer and the need to double dip to get the film in good quality.

rdclark

IMO, that article consists entirely of speculation based on looking at the list of initial releases, and no research or real understanding of the market.

The list of initial releases doesn't indicate anything about who the studios think will buy this technology or how they're trying to position it. Rather, they are titles that the studios already have HD masters of, that they already have all rights to, and that will conveniently fit onto the new medium with a minimum of fuss or technological headaches. They want to make sure there are discs available for in-store promos, for give-aways, for bundle deals with new players.

With a few exceptions (a handful of new titles that are being planned for both NTSC and HD release) these titles are "shovelware" -- existing content that can basically be dumped into the new format with a minimum of investment. At this stage, the titles don't matter as l;ong as there's something for early adopters of the hardware to play on their equipment. The people who buy these players now will buy it no matter what titles are available.

In the summer of 2006, and then Christmas 2006, when the second and third generation of players are introduced and prices drop, we'll start seeing software driving sales. This will accelerate as digital broadcasting -- and the necessity of converting to digital TV in every home - becomes understood by the mass market at around the same time. (One of the most widespread misconceptions amongst the general public is that NTSC DVD is "digital TV.")

RichC

cajun_junky

Since I don't even own a HD TV yet and won't be buying one until this fall or next spring.....I don't see me dropping any money on HD-DVD or blu-ray until everything is worked out.

sracer

I agree in general. But I also think that there's a possibility that this could play out in a manner similar to laserdiscs. A solid technology, hampered by competing standards that doesn't break out into the mainstream.

Absolutely good for the consumer... but I think bad for the format(s). I think that early on, the formats will vie for exclusive release of a particular title. Being the conspiracy nut that I am, I have a feeling that they're just "keeping their powder dry" until systems are released and THEN they'll announce the blockbuster films that are "exclusive" to their format.

Coral

It makes sense to me.

You want as many people to jump on the new format as possible, you have to offer titles the average person will watch. DVD sales and boxoffice results indicate that people generally like watching "crappy" movies - so that's what you offer them.

pdinosaur

i disagree. first, i doubt these HD masters were just laying around waiting for the technology to come to market. especially with something like north by northwest.

i assure you, these titles were not drawn out of a hat. they were carefully selected to provide a draw to all the adopters, even the women. (sometimes, you have to run big purchases by the other members of the household. heh)

as it is with early adoption, there has to be a "wow" factor. having the matrix or sleepy hollow in beautiful HD is almost a no-brainer because the films placed a heavy emphasis on cinematography. phantom of the opera is a great choice, even if the movie wasn't well received, because it has great music and i assume very interesting visuals (not seen the movie, just the play )

these titles are there so that the early adopters can have their friends over and be floored by how it looks. you want to buy movies that, once they start playing, you can see their faces say 'oh wow, this is hd dvd? this rocks my socks.'

while i'm too indebted to buy into this anytime soon, having the choice of buying harry potter, the matrix and sleepy hollow makes the thought of hddvd that more appealing. without titles like these i, and many others, would likely be less interested.

Adam Tyner

It's been standard practice for a while now to transfer to HD, create a 1080p master, and then downconvert that for DVD. The studios have many, many high-definition masters of their movies.

It's worth nothing that this first batch of HD-DVDs is a lot more impressive than the first batch of DVDs we saw in '97.

Josh H

Same here. Plus I have no reason to get one since I don't have an HDTV and don't plan on buying one in the next few years (want to get done with school, out of apts, and into a house before getting a big screen).

That aside, I really se no reason to early adopt here. It's just too risky. Much better to wait until a format gets decided, see if it's going to take off period or remain a niche market item like LD, for the selection to improve and for prices to drop.

The only people I see buying this right away are the videophiles that are more into technology and picture quality than movies and always need the latest greatest thing.

pdinosaur

more proof the studios are smarter than they might seem.

i agree, it's a good batch.

it's curious that the lotr movies aren't on the list. perhaps they're soon to follow, or they're similar to spielberg's schindler's list reasoning. eveyrone will buy it, why not wait until 'everyone' consists of a lot more people?

bboisvert

And, given that this is the WSJ, they should also point out that this strategy is *correct*.

You don't release catalog blockbusters when there are only a few thousand players out there... it dramatically reduces your sales. You don't release a "must have" disc, when there's no one out there with machines to play it. It makes sense to hold off on LotR, Star Wars, Indy, Spielberg stuff, etc...

I realize that this is a chicken-and-egg situation (why should people buy a new player when the classic titles aren't available? why should they release classic titles when they haven't sold many players?)... but history has shown that you lose millions by releasing classic titles too quickly. The DVD model of releasing things slowly worked great, and I don't see the studios screwing around with it this time.

Blockbusters like Jaws undersold on VHS by being released early in the format. Titanic undersold by being rushed to DVD. And LOTR would undersell if they rushed it to HD-DVD.

That being said, I thought the list of initial titles was pretty darn impressive for a format launch. To imply that they are all teenage, blow-stuff-up films isn't really accurate.

DavidH

I doubt standard DVD production will stop in 5-7 years. Most people will still have standard TV's by that time.

Josh H

Yeah, I mean VCRs are still being produced.

SD DVD players and recorders will continue to be produced for a long time. And even when they stop I imagine all future HD DVD player will continue to be backwards compatible.