Somewhat curious that so many people insist that J6P will not convert b/c they are just getting used to standard dvd and don't want to rebuy their collections all over. I don't think this is the case. IMO, J6P has the least to lose as they havn't invested nearly as much on as many dvds as the niche collectors here!

1. J6P doesn't have 1000 dvds, or he/she certainly wouldn't classify as J6P to begin with. Most people have 10-50 dvds if they are even a "dedicated" consumer.

2. J6P wants the cool HDTV. If HD-dvd is better than standard dvd they will want that too. It is also hard for a HDTV owners such as myself to justify paying 20 dollars on a standard dvd that looks significantly worse than the nightly news program. Yes, 1080i is to 480p what DVD is to VHS.

It's going to come down to price. When is HD-dvd going to be on par with dvd pricewise? I predict a single format will sell pretty well to HDTV owners for about 2 years before regular dvd players are switched over to equally priced HD players. Then the average consumer has very little choice as to which to buy. Not only that but the studios have no real motivation to get rid of standard dvd for a while as they are still making a fortune selling a lower quality product that is cheaper to make.

The other thing I was thinking is that the comparison to the Music Industry everyone brings up is just one possibility. Could a format war be SACD/DVD-A all over again? Sure it can! I just don't think either Audio format had a chance to replace CD anyway though. They were just too expensive with little word of mouth to the public. The people I work with have never heard of either multi-channel music format. Today, when they shop in Best Buy and CC and even Wal-mart, people can see the difference in picture quality from 480i to 1080i.

A better comparison, IMO, for the new HD format(s) would have to be the video game industry. Consider that the game industry is constantly replacing systems every so many years. Now, we have three game companies pushing out systems at a much faster pace and the general public doesn't really complain. Not only that, but people are actually looking forward to the X-Box 2 and PX3 while we have not really out-reached the capabilities of the current systems. Nobody complains about this industry though and they have always had no problem doing business like this and getting the casual gamer to keep buying new machines. It's all in the advertising and hype IMO .....

For myself, I have around 900 dvds and will probably rebuy 2/3s of them. I will not buy into the next format though unless/until we have ONE clear format.

I don't have an expensive Entertainment System (Philips DVDR, 27inch Sony TV, Sony VCR, a Huges Tivo, and a Sony Dolby Surround System) so i doubt that when the next generation comes out that I will buy the players right off (it will probably be years considering I'll be in college still). So I would probably not rebuy any titles (with small except that my TV Shows Titles are released with alot more special features (like Buffy the Vampire Slayer with Deleted Scenes or more commentaires, or even in widescreen).

I'm a fan of primarily older films and at this point in time, I don't see the next digital format offering me anything more than what I already have with DVD. And if the transition from LaserDisc to DVD is any kind of indication, chances are some extras (like commentaries, etc.) won't be carried over to the new format.

Of course, once the format arrives, I'll make the decision then based on what it actually delivers (instead of what the technology can hypothetically deliver)

My last DVD purchase will be ROTK: EE.

Then in late-2005, I'll ebay every single DVD title I own and upgrade to HD-DVD as they come out...

There is NO comparision between DVD and HD-DVD. Bar none.

Bring it on baby...

I've got X-2 on the DVR, haven't watched it all yet, but it definitely does look much better than regular DVD. And Bye Bye Birdie was nice as well, especially for being a 40 year old movie.

I won't rebuy everything, and like someone else said, it'll be on a per-disk basis based on what each new release offers [quality and content], and I wont' be an early adopter.

I have to respectfully disagree and classify that comparison as terrible. There have always been complaints about the shelf life of video game systems. However, the content changes, for the most part, between each of the systems. A Halo 2 just can't be played on a Playstation released in 1995, both for improved graphics and simple practical issues.

The content won't really change between HD discs and present discs -- it'll still just be your latest release (video and audio) with some "extras" attatched. The analogy with SACD is perfect in this respect. SACD (and DVD-A) are inherently high resolution formats, just like HD. Between audio and video, however, the greatest difference becomes limitations of the end media. While audio resolution does increase with better smpling, it's hard to tell the difference, since CD is already capable of delivering the maximum possible signal frequency audible to humans. Visible sharpness proves relatively easy to distinguish.

Thanks! You missed my point and pretty much said the same thing as me in your post. Point being the general public ACCEPTS the new game systems and doesn't question how they are "slightly" improved. They can see for themselves that they have better technology/graphics, just like the new HD formats will be visually improved over standard dvd. SACD is IMO a terrible comparison to HDDVD b/c as you said, most can't tell the difference in audio formats. People compare an audio format to a video/audio format as an excuse for why this new format will not work. Why compare a format that has a noticable difference with one that does not? As I said before people will buy what they can see is better.

BTW, my arguement for the game systems is more geared toward the new systems coming up. PS1 to X-box is a much larger divide in years than what we have now. Current systems have not maxed out technology yet and they havn't even figured out how to do the live services that well.

I only see HD-DVD/Blu-Ray being beneficial for newer films. IMO DVD is the definitive format for classic/older (pre Post-Modern) films.
I mean, ask yourselves this, how would the Wizard of Oz look in HD? The painted backgrounds being utterly fake? The string holding up the lion's tail being clearly visible? HD will make the magic of these older films disappear.
If it wasn't meant to be shown in HD then an HD presentation will do more harm than good.
Also, source material for many of these older films isn't that great and HD will only exaggerate these deficiencies.

Also, I really don't think films like LoTR or Spider-Man will be launched with the new format. Expect films to be released that have been released on DVD 2001 or before.

It will take a while for a film like Public Enemy to reappear on HD-DVD if the DVD release is in two months, i say at least another ten years for us to see films like these rereleased on the next format.


Also, the concept of diminishing returns is proof enough that HD-DVD will be adopted much more slowly than DVD.
DVD was better than VHS in EVERY possible way but HD-DVD is just promising a better picture, and maybe even sound.

The overlooked element of CONVENIENCE/PRACTICALITY is what made DVD, HD-DVD promises no improvements in this regard.

DVD was launched in late 1997 and became mainstream around late 2000/early 2001.

If HD-DVD is launched late 2005, i really dont see it hitting the mainstream as DVD did until around late 2009. It will be a niche market like Laserdiscs until then which people who frequent this forum will adopt. But when one factors the video game systems into the this, mainstream adoption may happen a little earlier.

I have a decent TV. I didn't spend over a thousand dollars on it, but it's nice. And DVD looks a little better, but not by much. I still buy DVDs, don't get me wrong. I like widescreen. I just don't see the HUGE improvement. Maybe if I was rich and could buy a nice WS digital TV, but I can't and probably never will. I can also never tell the difference between a "good" and "bad" transfer. I couldn't imagine ever buying a Superbit edition of a movie.

But as you say, it's not technology that sells game systems, it's the video games, Sony's forays being the perfect example of that. Similarly, it's not the technology that sells home video or audio recording, but the movies and music. Utility is what moves a format when there are differences. SACD, DVD-A, HD-DVD, and BlueRay posses no utility and few content advantages over CDs and DVDs.

I only buy what I will watch over and over again on DVD:

1. LotR
2. Spiderman 2
3. TPOTC
4. Shrek 2
5. Chirstmas stuff
6. Star Wars
7. Etc

HD will not be on the market for another year and the movie selection will not be great for another 6 months. Then the price for the machine and the movies will not be in my price range for another year or two.

So, I have about 2 1/2 to 3 years befor I switch to a HD DVD player, I do have an HDTV already.

Relax and enjoy what we have now.

:up:

The driving factor in all of this may be the studios desire to curb dvd piracy by moving to a new medium. Perhaps DVD will be slowly phased out. I'm still buying plenty of DVDs, esp. TV sets, but I can't wait for HD-DVD.

I see this line of reasoning again and again in this thread, and it simply could not be more wrong.

Even older films, and especially big budget extravaganzas like "Wizard of Oz", will look far better in HD than SD. More specifically, it will look more like the film source, which is the whole point of this. Unfortunately, even 1080 lines of resolution won't reveal all the detail of a well-produced film like "The Wizard of Oz", at least not on a large monitor (and certainly not on the size screen that "Wizard" was intended to be projected upon), but it will bring us so much closer. And it will represent a huge leap over the current 480P limit of DVD.

I can only imagine that those of you who don't think early films will benefit don't have HDTV. If you did, the improvement would be obvious. I recently saw "Bye Bye Birdie" on HD Movienet, a gorgeous technicolor film that rivals "Wizard" in the brilliance of its colors, and it was simply jaw-dropping. Many decades old, for sure, but that hardly means anything. Many older films look far better than newer ones. This has nothing to do with the era of films you prefer, as they will all benefit greatly from the hugely increased definition and color fidelity.

But even a cheap low-budget flick like "The Terminator" looks fantastic! This image of this film doesn't come close to the quality of "Bye Bye Birdie" or "The Wizard of Oz", and yet it looks so much better in HD than on DVD. Like I said before, even your grandma will notice. And even on a low-budget film like this one.

I'd love to know whether those of you with doubts and negative opinions have HD-TV? If not, I think living with it for only a very short while would change your mind in a heartbeat. Like I said, I was until very recently in the "DVD is plenty good enough" camp. After one day of HD-TV, I realized just how much I'd been missing.

Not waiting. It's still about two years min. before a new machine enters my house.

I'll probably buy a new player, and begin buying the new format. It's very unlikely I'll replace much of anything. DVD picture is incredible as it is, but what really hooked me on DVD was the sound. I'm happy with what I have.

I'm not going to stop buying, however there's no way i'm going to buy back the same things i have now. Too much already invested.

Well, your imagination is wrong. I have an HDTV... 16:9 flatscreen tube, not a projection set. And I have HDTV programming via my cable service. HBO HD indeed looks great for newer films, but the quality of broadcast of older films, just isn't there. I'd say that there isn't any discernable difference between the HD broadcast of an older film on HBO HD and a high quality DVD playback.

Y'see, it isn't the raw technical specs that anyone is disputing. It is the application of the technology. Going all HD or Blu-Ray isn't going to all of a sudden get companies to do proper jobs in remastering and transfering films.

They're not doing their best with DVD technology... so I find no reason to believe that HD/ Blu-Ray will be any different.

The reason newer films will most likely look better with the new format is because it will be easier and cheaper for companies to produce those discs. In most cases, the effort involved to produce an older film will not warrant the time and money to do it right.

I agree that the new technology will provide the opportunity for a higher quality product. Where I disagree is that it will be a certainty in every case. There's still going to be a lot of titles done-on-the-cheap that will look no different than DVD.

This is no way in hell that I am going to rebuy the DVD's already own. Granted I only own about 120 DVD's and some people have over 300 and more, it's idiotic for me to even think about ever rebuying just because of HD or Blue Ray or whatever the hell it is.

While this issue is endlessly debateable here, the fact is many people still haven't fully caught on to DVD yet. While HDDVD might be backwards capatible (which I hope it is), i know a ton of people who still don't know or want to get or even care about HD.
I kinda of see this as a video game system-way, where while PS2 is still awesome, when PS3 comes out people will buy it in droves, but still a lot of people will still play and keep their "old" Ps2.
For me to get HD-DVD or Blu-Ray, it comes down to three things:
1-The price.
2-Quality of extras. (I don't see how they can improve on audio commentaries or docs. What could be new and exciting? I mean, how many times can John Carpenter talk about Halloween?)
3-Backwards capability. I don't want to do a lot of replacing. I have a little of 300, not including 20 TV-on-DVD sets, and a few boxsets like SW or Alien Quad. There's no way HD will make anything before 1970's or so look better. Unless a company does a full-blown restoration (like The Mummy-1933 needs one bad).
Sure, LotR or Spidey 2 might look pretty sweet, but what about Buffy or Taxi Driver.

So I'll wait. Hopefully, HD-DVD/Blu-Ray won't kill DVD, that won't be good for either format; nobody will embrace anything, cuz they'll be wondering what's next? So, again, hopefully, they'll co-exist. Seriously, I don't see to many outside of (some of) us embrace this full-on. It will be interesting.

But now I'm going to BB to buy some more DVDs...

My experience has been quite different, though most of the older films I've seen are broadcast on HD Movienet and Cinemax, and I rarely if ever see such fare on HBO. I haven't seen any silent-era films in HD, and truthfully I wish there was a lot more pre-70s material out there. But what I have seen -- off the top of my head, stuff like "The Manchurian Candidate", "Bye Bye Birdie", "Brigadoon", "Cheyenne Autumn" -- look better than the DVD (in the case of "The Manchurian Candidade") or better than I've ever seen them (all the others!). So I have to ask: which specific movies are you talking about?

Great point, and the same one I bring up every time a new HD-DVD thread emerges. This is an upgrade not a replacement, there will be backwards compatibility and to a degree, the changeover will be gradual and transparent to most people.

...and will there be the same NTSC vs. PAL mess we have today (except in 'better' quality, of course!)...?...

. . . :o . . .

I'm not a technical expert but isn't the "HDTV looks a hell of a lot better than DVD" argument dependent on your equipment? If the native resolution of your tv is 720p then a 480p DVD signal will be upconverted by your tv to 720p (or an upconverting DVD player can do the conversion and feed 720p directly to the tv), and if your HD broadcast is 1080i then your tv will downconvert that signal to it's native resolution of 720p. Even if HDDVD has higher resolution, what you will see will depend on your tv.

With the turn that my collection has taken - WAY more television than movies - I dont think that the new format will be that much of an improvement. I mean really, how much better will 20 year old episodes of Knight Rider and the A-Team look on DVD-Supersize (or whatever the hell theyre calling it this week).

Provided that it's backwards compatable (and to do otherwise will kill the format right off the bat), I very well may get a new player. And then future purchases will Supersized - but until then, I'm not losing sleep.