Survivor Episode #9 ("The Strategy Becomes Clear")
03-16-01, 01:13 AM
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To everyone who thought Jerri was going to get the boot: are you crazy or just plain naive?! The strategy is very clear if you look at it from Colby's point of view.
- Jerri and Amber are in a weak position and they know it. They MUST trust Colby, Tina, and Keith. They've got no choice.
- Neither Colby, Tina, nor Keith can afford to backstab Jerri just yet. If they did, they would've completely erased the advantage they had when they eliminated Jeff.
- THUS, in order for this core 3 person alliance to get to the finals, they must first whittle Kucha down to 2 members. My reasonable assumption is that it will be Elisabeth and Rodger, since Tina is very fond of both of them. Thus, count on Nick to say bye bye in the next episode.
- After they reduce Kucha to Rodger and Elisabeth, they can then proceed to backstab Jerri without any problems because Elisabeth and Rodger will GLADLY help them, not only because they don't like Jerri, but because they've GOT NO CHOICE.
- After that, everyone is at the mercy of the 3 person voting block. My guess is that Amber, being spineless on top of brainless will follow whatever Colby and Co. decides.
- The ONLY way that all this will not happen is an unforseen immunity challenge winner, OR Elisabeth and Rodger (after Nick is booted) are able to form a temporary strategic alliance with Jerri and Amber. That just AIN'T gonna happen unless Jerri forsees what I just foresaw and can explain the dire situation to Kucha. Haha...hell will freeze over first.
- Jerri and Amber are in a weak position and they know it. They MUST trust Colby, Tina, and Keith. They've got no choice.
- Neither Colby, Tina, nor Keith can afford to backstab Jerri just yet. If they did, they would've completely erased the advantage they had when they eliminated Jeff.
- THUS, in order for this core 3 person alliance to get to the finals, they must first whittle Kucha down to 2 members. My reasonable assumption is that it will be Elisabeth and Rodger, since Tina is very fond of both of them. Thus, count on Nick to say bye bye in the next episode.
- After they reduce Kucha to Rodger and Elisabeth, they can then proceed to backstab Jerri without any problems because Elisabeth and Rodger will GLADLY help them, not only because they don't like Jerri, but because they've GOT NO CHOICE.
- After that, everyone is at the mercy of the 3 person voting block. My guess is that Amber, being spineless on top of brainless will follow whatever Colby and Co. decides.
- The ONLY way that all this will not happen is an unforseen immunity challenge winner, OR Elisabeth and Rodger (after Nick is booted) are able to form a temporary strategic alliance with Jerri and Amber. That just AIN'T gonna happen unless Jerri forsees what I just foresaw and can explain the dire situation to Kucha. Haha...hell will freeze over first.
03-16-01, 11:28 AM
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I am getting bored silly with this show because the pattern is so damned obvious - each time, one team will gain advantage over the other and proceed to pick them off one by one. No drama whatsoever in that. I definitely find this one less interesting than the first and while I probably will stick around to find out who wins I think I'll pass on "Survivor 3." They will need to seirously shake up the way they've set up the show in order to keep it from just being so predictable. Ban alliances or something.
03-16-01, 12:12 PM
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1000% agree with lester - the whole season has been good so far but now that the tribe is nominally merged it makes no sense to watch it until all of kucha is kicked off. why would anyone risk going against the grain in ogakor? they might as well just skip all elimination episodes until they get to an ogakor only show.
03-16-01, 12:59 PM
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I didn't like all the Alliance stuff last season, and don't like it this season.
How about starting a discussion about how you think it SHOULD work. Any situation where you have people voting other people out, you are going to have people taking sides.
One of the problems I personally have with the show is the whole concept of it being 'Survival'. They are put in a remote location and must 'survive'. Thats nice, but the voting of people off has very little to do with their ability to survive. The strongest survivors are usually at the highest risk to go. They could have the same show with everyone sitting in a luxury mansion, doing challenges and voting people off. I think the 'survival' aspect of the show should somehow impact who gets voted off... if someone is weak and not performing, they should have a higher chance of getting booted. Not really sure of a fair way to integrate that with the elimination aspect of the show at the moment though...
How about starting a discussion about how you think it SHOULD work. Any situation where you have people voting other people out, you are going to have people taking sides.
One of the problems I personally have with the show is the whole concept of it being 'Survival'. They are put in a remote location and must 'survive'. Thats nice, but the voting of people off has very little to do with their ability to survive. The strongest survivors are usually at the highest risk to go. They could have the same show with everyone sitting in a luxury mansion, doing challenges and voting people off. I think the 'survival' aspect of the show should somehow impact who gets voted off... if someone is weak and not performing, they should have a higher chance of getting booted. Not really sure of a fair way to integrate that with the elimination aspect of the show at the moment though...
03-16-01, 01:18 PM
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Originally posted by qbert
1000% agree with lester - the whole season has been good so far but now that the tribe is nominally merged it makes no sense to watch it until all of kucha is kicked off. why would anyone risk going against the grain in ogakor? they might as well just skip all elimination episodes until they get to an ogakor only show.
1000% agree with lester - the whole season has been good so far but now that the tribe is nominally merged it makes no sense to watch it until all of kucha is kicked off. why would anyone risk going against the grain in ogakor? they might as well just skip all elimination episodes until they get to an ogakor only show.
in fact, i just thought of another scenario where kucha could make it all the way the end. what happens is ogakor first eliminates nick. then, colby and Co will probably feel safe in backstabbing jerri. if amber is smart (okay, that's a stretch), she will realize that she is an outsider of Colby's alliance and will team up with elizabeth and rodger BECAUSE (and here's the kicker), NONE of those three will have had ANY votes against them, and they will be able to go head to head with Colby & Co, knowing full well that Colby AND Keith both have votes so that it doesn't even matter who wins immunity.
you guys are right in that it has really nothing to do with who's the best survivor. but that would be boring now wouldn't it? Colby, Alicia, Mike, and Kel would be the final 4. That's not a whole lot more fun... I like it the way it is because of all the strategizing and mind games involved. I especially like the mind games part. Physical fitness is predictable. Human behavior is not.
03-16-01, 02:16 PM
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Originally posted by Lestern Burnham
I am getting bored silly with this show because the pattern is so damned obvious - each time, one team will gain advantage over the other and proceed to pick them off one by one. No drama whatsoever in that. I definitely find this one less interesting than the first and while I probably will stick around to find out who wins I think I'll pass on "Survivor 3." They will need to seirously shake up the way they've set up the show in order to keep it from just being so predictable. Ban alliances or something.
I am getting bored silly with this show because the pattern is so damned obvious - each time, one team will gain advantage over the other and proceed to pick them off one by one. No drama whatsoever in that. I definitely find this one less interesting than the first and while I probably will stick around to find out who wins I think I'll pass on "Survivor 3." They will need to seirously shake up the way they've set up the show in order to keep it from just being so predictable. Ban alliances or something.
03-16-01, 05:01 PM
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Maybe its just me, but i find the whole thing too frustrating, not becasue i care about any of the people, but because being a strategy buff (thanks to samurai and Asian culture interests) i cant believe the inane mistakes people make, when it is so obvious there are better paths to use. This last week ended with the biggest groan i've ever let out over any tv show. Its so painfully obvious now what will happen, i doubt i'll tune in. i have no respect for the trio whose strategy is working, and despise the members who cant pull one off. Unless there is some serious backstabbing and betrayal (which i dont think anyone has the smarts/guts/charisma to pull off), its going to be as dull as a rock.
03-16-01, 06:05 PM
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Originally posted by iaido
Maybe its just me, but i find the whole thing too frustrating, not becasue i care about any of the people, but because being a strategy buff (thanks to samurai and Asian culture interests) i cant believe the inane mistakes people make, when it is so obvious there are better paths to use. This last week ended with the biggest groan i've ever let out over any tv show. Its so painfully obvious now what will happen, i doubt i'll tune in. i have no respect for the trio whose strategy is working, and despise the members who cant pull one off. Unless there is some serious backstabbing and betrayal (which i dont think anyone has the smarts/guts/charisma to pull off), its going to be as dull as a rock.
Maybe its just me, but i find the whole thing too frustrating, not becasue i care about any of the people, but because being a strategy buff (thanks to samurai and Asian culture interests) i cant believe the inane mistakes people make, when it is so obvious there are better paths to use. This last week ended with the biggest groan i've ever let out over any tv show. Its so painfully obvious now what will happen, i doubt i'll tune in. i have no respect for the trio whose strategy is working, and despise the members who cant pull one off. Unless there is some serious backstabbing and betrayal (which i dont think anyone has the smarts/guts/charisma to pull off), its going to be as dull as a rock.
