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Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

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Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Old 06-12-13, 05:26 PM
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Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Steven Spielberg on Wednesday predicted an "implosion" in the film industry is inevitable, whereby a half dozen or so $250 million movies flop at the box office and alter the industry forever. What comes next -- or even before then -- will be price variances at movie theaters, where "you're gonna have to pay $25 for the next Iron Man, you're probably only going to have to pay $7 to see Lincoln." He also said that Lincoln came "this close" to being an HBO movie instead of a theatrical release.

George Lucas agreed that massive changes are afoot, including film exhibition morphing somewhat into a Broadway play model, whereby fewer movies are released, they stay in theaters for a year and ticket prices are much higher. His prediction prompted Spielberg to recall that his 1982 film E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial stayed in theaters for a year and four months.

The two legendary filmmakers, along with CNBC anchor Julia Boorstin and Microsoft president of interactive entertainment business Don Mattrick, were speaking at the University of Southern California as part of the festivities surrounding the official opening of the Interactive Media Building, three stories high and part of the USC School of Cinematic Arts.

Lucas and Spielberg told USC students that they are learning about the industry at an extraordinary time of upheaval, where even proven talents find it difficult to get movies into theaters. Some ideas from young filmmakers "are too fringe-y for the movies," Spielberg said. "That's the big danger, and there's eventually going to be an implosion — or a big meltdown. There's going to be an implosion where three or four or maybe even a half-dozen megabudget movies are going to go crashing into the ground, and that's going to change the paradigm."

Lucas lamented the high cost of marketing movies and the urge to make them for the masses while ignoring niche audiences. He called cable television "much more adventurous" than film nowadays.

"I think eventually the Lincolns will go away and they're going to be on television," Lucas said. "As mine almost was," Spielberg interjected. "This close -- ask HBO -- this close."

"We're talking Lincoln and Red Tails -- we barely got them into theaters. You're talking about Steven Spielberg and George Lucas can't get their movie into a theater," Lucas said. "I got more people into Lincoln than you got into Red Tails," Spielberg joked.

Spielberg added that he had to co-own his own studio in order to get Lincoln into theaters.

"The pathway to get into theaters is really getting smaller and smaller," Lucas said.

Mattrick and Spielberg also praised Netflix, prompting Boorstin to ask Spielberg if he planned to make original content for the Internet streamer. "I have nothing to announce," said the director.

Lucas and Spielberg also spoke of vast differences between filmmaking and video games because the latter hasn't been able to tell stories and make consumers care about the characters. Which isn't to say the two worlds aren't connected. Spielberg, in fact, has teamed with Microsoft to make a "TV" show based on the game Halo and he is making a movie based on the Electronic Arts game Need for Speed.
Old 06-12-13, 06:28 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Yea. I agree with everything he said.

There's far too much material out there right now. Big and small movies. People shoveling out so much material. And most of it is forgettable, or never makes it past online streaming, direct to video, etc.

I wouldn't mind a leaner set of new material to watch. Figure out how to spend less on marketing and more on new ideas.
Old 06-12-13, 08:12 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

is there a link so I can share this?
Old 06-12-13, 08:20 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Originally Posted by Chadm
is there a link so I can share this?
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...on-film-567604
Old 06-12-13, 08:38 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Lucas and Spielberg also spoke of vast differences between filmmaking and video games because the latter hasn't been able to tell stories and make consumers care about the characters.
Video games can't tell a story and make you care about the characters? That's pure bullshit. Spielberg obviously hasn't actually seen a video game since the 1980s.
Old 06-12-13, 08:45 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Originally Posted by taffer
Video games can't tell a story and make you care about the characters? That's pure bullshit. Spielberg obviously hasn't actually seen a video game since the 1980s.
Agreed.

Also,
"We're talking Lincoln and Red Tails -- we barely got them into theaters. You're talking about Steven Spielberg and George Lucas can't get their movie into a theater,"
Lincoln was BORING. While Spielberg still has a good reputation as a filmmaker, George Lucas doesn't. Red Tails didn't look good, or interesting. (Still haven't seen it)
Old 06-12-13, 08:59 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Had he made Lincoln with Liam Neeson as originally intended, it would have been an HBO movie; I really think DDL in the title role helped secure it a theatrical release.
Old 06-12-13, 09:10 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

No Hollywood for old men?
Old 06-12-13, 09:11 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Originally Posted by taffer
Video games can't tell a story and make you care about the characters? That's pure bullshit. Spielberg obviously hasn't actually seen a video game since the 1980s.
Old 06-12-13, 09:23 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

I played that game and beat it on the 2600. I was rewarded by being looped back to the beginning. So I threw the dick in a well and turned it off. It felt like purgatory.
Old 06-12-13, 09:46 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Originally Posted by ddrknghtrtns
I played that game and beat it on the 2600. I was rewarded by being looped back to the beginning. So I threw the dick in a well and turned it off. It felt like purgatory.
What in the hell E.T. game were you playing?!? I guess he made something besides his finger glow...

Originally Posted by boogieman03
Lincoln was BORING. While Spielberg still has a good reputation as a filmmaker, George Lucas doesn't. Red Tails didn't look good, or interesting. (Still haven't seen it)
I thought Lincoln was decent, but it didn't have to be 2 1/2 hours long. It could've been cut down to 2hr. Agree with Red Tails, it didn't look interesting to me at all.

I agree with Spielberg, something's going to happen in Hollywood that will shake up the movie industry. I think it's ridiculous that we are seeing, on a regular basis, movies that cost 100-200+ million to be made and then the studios bitch about piracy when the movies don't make their budgets back. Maybe movies should be in theaters longer and the video releases should be delayed a couple months. I remember when movies were in theaters 6-8 months before getting a video release and that was just 10 years ago.

Last edited by big e; 06-12-13 at 09:53 PM.
Old 06-12-13, 09:48 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

I agree it will implode but not quite the way they see it. Studios will find ways to make movies cheaper. Budgets will be slashed, salaries will be lowered. With streaming and home video as resources, no one is going to go to see a movie that's in the theater more than a few months let alone a year. Audiences lose interest after a few weeks. Raising prices sky high will not bring more people in. They might be able to up ticket prices a few bucks for high-demand titles at best. And just because you're a name doesn't guarantee large crowds. Spielberg doesn't make the films that the current movie-going public want to see in droves. (And, I love Spielberg.) HBO would have been a good home for Lincoln.
Old 06-12-13, 09:53 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Originally Posted by big e
What in the hell E.T. game were you playing?!? I guess he made something besides his finger glow...
Maybe I am getting this messed up with Custard's Last Stand.
Old 06-12-13, 09:58 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Originally Posted by Pizza
I agree it will implode but not quite the way they see it. Studios will find ways to make movies cheaper. Budgets will be slashed, salaries will be lowered.
I was talking to my mom's boyfriend about this last Saturday. CGI was originally used to lower the cost of making a movie so studios weren't spending a ton of money on sets. Now, it seems like the movies that are CGI-heavey are the ones that are costing 100+ million to make. So it looks like the CGI model kind of backfired on Hollywood.
Old 06-12-13, 10:13 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

The best idea is to delay home video release for 8-10 months after theatrical release. It seems now I alway say people will just wait for DVD since it will be out in a few months. If they know they will not see it for almost a year, they would more likely go see it.

Thing I never got was when people say they don't want to see it but will pick it up on DVD/Blu when it gets released. Don't know where they are getting them but I've never seen a new DVD cost less then a movie ticket.
Old 06-12-13, 10:18 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Originally Posted by resinrats
The best idea is to delay home video release for 8-10 months after theatrical release. It seems now I alway say people will just wait for DVD since it will be out in a few months. If they know they will not see it for almost a year, they would more likely go see it.

Thing I never got was when people say they don't want to see it but will pick it up on DVD/Blu when it gets released. Don't know where they are getting them but I've never seen a new DVD cost less then a movie ticket.

It's dependent on the circumstances, but if I'm going to see a movie with my girlfriend then that's about $20. Also, some people view concessions as part of the experience so it adds to the cost to bring it around the price of a DVD/BD release.

For me personally, when I decide to wait for the BD release, it means the film isn't a priority and I'll get the BD when the price is right. Although, with some theaters doing cheap Tues/Thurs, I've seen a lot more in theaters since a ticket is only $5 or $8.
Old 06-12-13, 11:04 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Originally Posted by big e
I was talking to my mom's boyfriend about this last Saturday. CGI was originally used to lower the cost of making a movie so studios weren't spending a ton of money on sets. Now, it seems like the movies that are CGI-heavey are the ones that are costing 100+ million to make. So it looks like the CGI model kind of backfired on Hollywood.
I don't quite understand the crazy budgets for many movies. Because improving technology (both in shooting and SFX) allows for great looking movies to be made on a budget. For example, District 9 cost $30 million. Iron Sky was $10 million (I thought the effects were quite good in that). Not an effects-movie, but the current box office #1 only cost $3 million (which probably doesn't even cover catering for a $100+ million monstrousity). Maybe it's more a case of these big-budget major studio releases just not using money wisely (since they have the safety net of a giant studio behind them). If the major studios stop releasing mega-budget movies, then smaller-scale filmmakers will gladly fill the void. And that might be a good thing overall.

And yeah ... their comments about video games makes them sound incredibly out of touch with today's world. Maybe the Spielberg and Lucas mindset of making movies will "implode". But movies overall? I don't think so.

Last edited by brainee; 06-12-13 at 11:10 PM.
Old 06-12-13, 11:19 PM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Originally Posted by brainee
I don't quite understand the crazy budgets for many movies. Because improving technology (both in shooting and SFX) allows for great looking movies to be made on a budget. For example, District 9 cost $30 million. Iron Sky was $10 million (I thought the effects were quite good in that). Not an effects-movie, but the current box office #1 only cost $3 million (which probably doesn't even cover catering for a $100+ million monstrousity). Maybe it's more a case of these big-budget major studio releases just not using money wisely (since they have the safety net of a giant studio behind them). If the major studios stop releasing mega-budget movies, then smaller-scale filmmakers will gladly fill the void. And that might be a good thing overall.

And yeah ... their comments about video games makes them sound incredibly out of touch with today's world. Maybe the Spielberg and Lucas mindset of making movies will "implode". But movies overall? I don't think so.
Nevermind that most of these big ass budgeted films also receive millions of dollars in tax credits and reimbursements, so the final budget really isn't an accurate one once those get factored in.

A lot of it is also smoke and mirrors. I never fall for the figures they supposedly use for marketing. It's mostly bogus anyway.
Old 06-13-13, 12:49 AM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Originally Posted by troystiffler
Yea. I agree with everything he said.

There's far too much material out there right now. Big and small movies. People shoveling out so much material. And most of it is forgettable, or never makes it past online streaming, direct to video, etc.

I wouldn't mind a leaner set of new material to watch. Figure out how to spend less on marketing and more on new ideas.
I can see all the big directors being like Malick, taking a small budget with a couple movie stars and filming it 'guerilla style'. Then there will also be teenagers in their basements creating District 9s.
Old 06-13-13, 01:23 AM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

I was just watching a blu-ray movie the other day... don't remember which one, but it was a big special effects movie (Iron Man? The Hobbit? Avengers?)... and marveled at all of the names in the credits. Just an endless stream of names and job titles. And then it occurred to me that each one of those people was paid to make the movie. From the big stars making millions to the carpenters and computer graphics people and caterers. And that just covers the salaries... factor in things like props and costumes and sets... and I'm astounded that they can make these things for the hundreds of millions that they do.

As for the article, I really don't see the "Broadway" model working for movies at all. The idea that movies would stay in theaters for months at a time with fewer movies made and higher ticket prices, just seems like a recipe for disaster. There's just no way that would work. Audiences are accustomed to a certain kind of distribution model, and would probably reject the change. Broadway is a tourist destination and has little in common with film.

I also don't think it would possible to charge $25 for the next Iron Man, and $7 for the Lincoln. Almost seems like they have backwards; the Iron Mans are the crowd-pleasers that draw in millions of people, and the smaller scale pictures like Lincoln are going to draw from a smaller, older, more select audience. If anything, the "art house" pictures should command the higher ticket prices. Then again, we're already paying more for the Iron Mans with 3D and IMAX presentations, though those are more gimmicks to justify higher prices and drum up interest. But there's no way I can see Iron Man 3 and Lincoln playing on the same screens for $25 and $7 ticket prices, respectively.
Old 06-13-13, 05:08 AM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

It's incredibly naive to think that higher prices is realistic. Do that and the theaters just die instead.
Old 06-13-13, 06:35 AM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

besides, you don't HAVE to pay your CGI and SFX workers anyway.
Old 06-13-13, 08:26 AM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Originally Posted by CloverClover
I can see all the big directors being like Malick, taking a small budget with a couple movie stars and filming it 'guerilla style'. Then there will also be teenagers in their basements creating District 9s.
Big name actors are willing to work for cheap when it comes to auteurs like Terence Malick, David Cronenberg, Woody Allen, etc..........

I have a question

How in the hell did The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo cost almost $100,000,000?
David Fincher is going to have to scale back on some of his films. They don't exactly rake it in at the box office
Old 06-13-13, 08:30 AM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Originally Posted by inri222
How in the hell did The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo cost almost $100,000,000?
There's a was a shit-ton of CGI. It wasn't always obvious, and it wasn't flashy, but it was there.
Old 06-13-13, 08:33 AM
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Re: Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

Lucas and Spielberg told USC students that they are learning about the industry at an extraordinary time of upheaval, where even proven talents find it difficult to get movies into theaters. Some ideas from young filmmakers "are too fringe-y for the movies," Spielberg said. "That's the big danger, and there's eventually going to be an implosion — or a big meltdown. There's going to be an implosion where three or four or maybe even a half-dozen megabudget movies are going to go crashing into the ground, and that's going to change the paradigm."

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