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Bandoman
04-24-08, 07:45 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aBUoYKhu7PWk

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's discoveries of what may be two of the world's three biggest oil finds in the past 30 years could help end the Western Hemisphere's reliance on Middle East crude, Strategic Forecasting Inc. said.

Saudi Arabia's influence as the biggest oil exporter would wane if the fields are as big as advertised, and China and India would become dominant buyers of Persian Gulf oil, said Peter Zeihan, vice president of analysis at Strategic Forecasting in Austin, Texas. Zeihan's firm, which consults for companies and governments around the world, was described in a 2001 Barron's article as ``the shadow CIA.''

Brazil may be pumping ``several million'' barrels of crude daily by 2020, vaulting the nation into the ranks of the world's seven biggest producers, Zeihan said in a telephone interview. The U.S. Navy's presence in the Persian Gulf and adjacent waters would be reduced, leaving the region exposed to more conflict, he said.

``We could see that world becoming a very violent one,'' said Zeihan, former chief of Middle East and East Asia analysis for Strategic Forecasting. ``If the United States isn't getting any crude from the Gulf, what benefit does it have in policing the Gulf anymore? All of the geopolitical flux that wracks that region regularly suddenly isn't our problem.''

Tupi and Carioca

Brazil's state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA in November said the offshore Tupi field may hold 8 billion barrels of recoverable crude. Among discoveries in the past 30 years, only the 15-billion-barrel Kashagan field in Kazakhstan is larger.

Haroldo Lima, director of the country's oil agency, last week said another subsea field, Carioca, may have 33 billion barrels of oil. That would be the third biggest field in history, behind only the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia and Burgan in Kuwait.

Analysts Mark Flannery of Credit Suisse Group and Gustavo Gattass of UBS AG challenge the estimate for Carioca. Lima, the Brazilian oil agency director, later attributed the figure to a magazine.

Flannery told clients during an April 16 conference call that 600 million barrels is a ``reasonable'' estimate and suggested Lima may have been referring to the entire geologic formation to which Carioca belongs.

Supply Boost

Carioca is one of seven fields identified so far in the BM- S-9 exploration area, part of a formation called Sugar Loaf.

If additional drilling by Petrobras, as Petroleo Brasileiro is known, confirms the Tupi and Carioca estimates, the fields together would contain enough oil to supply every refinery on the U.S. Gulf Coast for 15 years. Petrobras said it needs at least three months to determine how much crude Carioca may hold.

Zeihan said that beyond supply gains from Brazil, it will take a tripling of Canadian oil-sands output and greater fuel efficiency to end Western reliance on Middle East oil.

The U.S. imports about 10 million barrels of oil a day, or 66 percent of its needs, according to the Energy Department in Washington. Saudi Arabia was the second-largest supplier in January, behind Canada.

Persian Gulf nations accounted for 23 percent of U.S. imports, compared with Brazil's 1.7 percent share. Brazilian crude output rose 1.9 percent last year to 2.14 million barrels, according to the International Energy Agency.

``Hemispheric energy independence sounds a little pie-in- the-sky given that this hemisphere already is generating one- third of overall global demand,'' said Jason Gammel, an oil analyst at Macquarie Bank Ltd. in New York. ``It's pretty tough to talk about self-sufficiency unless we were to see food-based biofuels taking an even bigger role in the next five to 10 years than is already mandated.''

Offshore Fields

Zeihan predicts a 2012 start to production at Tupi. Technology needed to tap fields like Tupi, which sit hundreds of miles offshore beneath thousands of feet of rock, sand and salt, hasn't been developed, he said.

Petrobras, Chevron Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Norsk Hydro ASA plan to start pumping oil from eight Brazilian fields in the next 2 1/2 years that will produce a combined 1.02 million barrels a day, enough to supply two-thirds of the crude used by U.S. East Coast refineries.

More discoveries will follow in Brazil's offshore basins, most of which have yet to be opened to exploration, Zeihan said. Repsol YPF SA, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Devon Energy Corp. are among the producers scouring Brazil's waters for reserves.

``The finds they've got so far are just the tip of the iceberg,'' Zeihan said. ``Brazil is going to change the balance of the global oil markets, and Petrobras will become a geopolitical supermajor.''



I haven't seen a therad on this.

The article raises many questions:

(1) Is it true? Is there really that much oil there, and if so, is there a reasonable expectation that production will allow us to shift our focus from the Middle East to Brazil?

(2) Is this a good thing overall? Certainly less dependence on the ME would give us options we don't currently have, but if we lessen our presence in the ME how will it affect anti-American sentiment? I imagine that terrorist organizations will grow, at least initially, without a concerted US political/military effort to curb their growth. I'm sure we wouldn't just up and leave without any presence there, but if we don't need ME oil why spend the kind of money/effort it would take to "control" the area?

Lots of questions, few answers.

classicman2
04-24-08, 07:49 AM
No, it won't.

The Bus
04-24-08, 07:53 AM
If it was true, it would be interesting. You forgot to bold the part where several people said it wasn't true.

Venusian
04-24-08, 07:53 AM
Does it matter when we're in a global market? Unless we get some kind of exclusive deal with Brazil, China and India's demands on the ME oil would still affect prices for us.

Bandoman
04-24-08, 08:47 AM
I was more intrested in the potential change in national security interests in the ME.

Venusian
04-24-08, 08:49 AM
but since the ME supply would affect the price of oil, i'm not sure we'd change National Security interests much.

...unless we got off oil completely

Bandoman
04-24-08, 09:18 AM
Mr. Fusion FTW!

http://www.outatime.it/public/40-mr_fusion.jpg

bhk
04-24-08, 09:19 AM
It would make a huge difference and might break the OPEC cartel. Brazil's finds are 2 of the 3 world's largest.

Bandoman
04-24-08, 09:21 AM
It would make a huge difference and might break the OPEC cartel. Brazil's finds are 2 of the 3 world's largest.

The question then becomes, as Venusian pointed out, whether even this would be enough to satify global demand, or at least to bring down prices globally.

wendersfan
04-24-08, 09:26 AM
It would be entertaining if, because of this, the gulf states became India's and China's problem instead of ours.

Nick Danger
04-24-08, 09:26 AM
It would make a huge difference and might break the OPEC cartel. Brazil's finds are 2 of the 3 world's largest.

Why wouldn't Brazil just join OPEC? Venezuela was one of the founding members.

Tuan Jim
04-25-08, 06:35 AM
What's fairly irritating is watching some of the interviews and clips coming out of the most recent OPEC conference.

Most of the guys are blaming the low dollar and high demand for keeping prices high - apparently increasing supply "wouldn't affect prices". I'm not sure how that works following the basic laws of supply and demand.

I'm better with poli sci than pure economics though - so maybe someone else can explain why even increasing supply wouldn't bring prices down. I can't see any downside for the producers to produce more.

al_bundy
04-25-08, 07:55 AM
the middle east countries were close to bankruptcy in the 1990's when oil prices were low. why would they even think of increasing supply?

VinVega
04-25-08, 08:06 AM
Why wouldn't Brazil just join OPEC? Venezuela was one of the founding members.
That was my thought as well. In a perfect world, it would be awesome if we imported our oil from a closer and less volatile region of the world. Well in an even more perfect world, we wouldn't be importing oil. Well in an even more perfect-er world, we wouldn't be using oil to power our economy.

I would love to get out of the ME business foreign policy-wise. It's an albatross around our necks. Pretty ironic that the country that has shifted its automobiles to ethanol only would find a big reserve of oil.

Lord Rick
04-25-08, 09:09 AM
More oil (from any source) is not going to be enough oil to affect our interest in policing the middle east.

classicman2
04-25-08, 10:29 AM
What percentage of our oil imports come from OPEC producing countries?

wishbone
04-25-08, 11:08 AM
What percentage of our oil imports come from OPEC producing countries?http://img115.imageshack.us/img115/530/usoilli0.jpg
http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html

kvrdave
04-25-08, 11:15 AM
Oil is just something for environmentalists to say we need to get rid of no matter how much is found. I don't believe finding huge reserves means anything without an energy policy that includes our own drilling and refineries. And environmentalists don't want that.

The Bus
04-25-08, 11:46 AM
Take that, Kuwait! <img src="http://www.fantasticdamage.com/blog/emot-dance.gif">

I wish I got a 3% discount at the pump. :sad:

al_bundy
04-25-08, 11:47 AM
read earlier this week that saudi arabia is about to get a new oil field online

they spent over $15 billion on it so far

classicman2
04-25-08, 11:48 AM
the middle east countries were close to bankruptcy in the 1990's when oil prices were low. why would they even think of increasing supply?

Surely you jest!!

When was Saudi Arabia close to bankruptcy?

Now if you want to say that a number of independent oil producers in the U.S. were close to bankrupticy - I might agree with that.

When your at maximum capacity, it's a little difficult to increase the supply.

Lord Rick
04-25-08, 04:17 PM
Oil is just something for environmentalists to say we need to get rid of no matter how much is found. I don't believe finding huge reserves means anything without an energy policy that includes our own drilling and refineries. And environmentalists don't want that.

We can't drill our way out of this mess.

The people who build and operate refineries are the ones who don't want any more refineries.

Environmentalists have barely any effect on the price of oil. Surely you realize that by now.

Oil won't come down in price by providing more oil. Supply and demand don't work very well because the market isn't free. Refiners can always take a refinery off-line as they have in the past. "uncertainty" in the market can cause traders to bid up the price. Companies can manipulate the price in so many ways.

The only thing that will bring down the cost of oil is if there are alternatives. I have always said we need a Manhattan project level of effort to develop solar panel technology. Look at the price of LCD televisions - they've plummeted in recent years. That kind of manufacturing should be very similar to that for solar cells. There is no reason the price couldn't be driven down given research and economies of scale.

al_bundy
04-25-08, 04:23 PM
LCD is an old and mature technology and the low prices are a recent phenomenom

anyone can cut their demand of oil, but most people aren't willing to make the lifestyle changes yet

classicman2
04-25-08, 04:40 PM
What I'm more concerned about than the new Saudi oil field is what they're going to put on that oil field - refineries.

al_bundy
04-25-08, 07:49 PM
supposedly valero is building new refineries in south america

DVD Polizei
04-25-08, 07:57 PM
Could new oil fields in Brazil end reliance on Middle East?

No.

Because our US oil companies don't want to change the way it is.

VinVega
04-25-08, 11:25 PM
What I'm more concerned about than the new Saudi oil field is what they're going to put on that oil field - refineries.
Yes, we don't build them here anymore. We're even importing refined oil and that is just stupid.

Oil prices up on word US ship fired on boats in Persian Gulf (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080425/oil_prices.html)

Looks like a barrel of oil is about to hit $120. Better put air in those bicycle tires. ;)

Kittydreamer
04-26-08, 10:31 AM
Mr. Fusion FTW!

http://www.outatime.it/public/40-mr_fusion.jpg
Wait, does that make coffee?

The Bus
04-28-08, 02:44 PM
Get ready for another economic shock of major proportions a virtual doubling of prices at the gas pump to as much as $10 a gallon.

http://www2.nysun.com/article/75363

That's the message from a couple of analytical energy industry trackers, both of whom, based on the surging oil prices, see considerably more pain at the pump than most drivers realize.

Gasoline nationally is in an accelerated upswing, having jumped to $3.58 a gallon from $3.50 in just the past week. In some parts of the country, including New York City and the West Coast, gas is already sporting a price tag above $4 a gallon. There was a pray-in at a Chevron station in San Francisco on Friday led by a minister asking God for cheaper gas, and an Arco gas station in San Mateo, Calif., has already raised its price to a sky-high $4.62.

In Manhattan, at a Mobil gas station at York Avenue and East 61st Street, premium gas is now $4.03 a gallon. Two days ago, it was $3.96. Why such a high price? "Blame the people at STOPEC (he meant OPEC) and the oil companies," an attendant there told me.

These increases are taking place before the all-important summer driving season, signaling even higher prices ahead.

That's also the outlook of the Automobile Association of America. "As long as the price of crude oil stays above $100 a barrel, drivers will be forced to pay more and more at the gas pump," a AAA spokesman, Troy Green, said.

Oil recently hit an all-time high of nearly $120 a barrel, more than double its early 2007 price of about $50 a barrel. It closed Friday at $118.52.

The forecasts calling for a jump to between $7 and $10 a gallon are based on the view that the price of crude is on its way to $200 in two to three years.

Translating this price into dollars and cents at the gas pump, one of our forecasters, the chairman of Houston-based Dune Energy, Alan Gaines, sees gas rising to $7-$8 a gallon. The other, a commodities tracker at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., Sean Brodrick, projects a range of $8 to $10 a gallon.

While $7-$10 a gallon would be ground-breaking in America, these prices would not be trendsetting internationally. For example, European drivers are already shelling out $9 a gallon (which includes a $2-a-gallon tax).

Canadians are also being hit with rising gas prices. They are paying the American-dollar equivalent of $4.92 a gallon, and they're being told to brace themselves for prices above $5.65 a gallon this summer.

Early last year, with a barrel of oil trading in the low $50s and gasoline nationally selling in a range of $2.30 to $2.50 a gallon, Mr. Gaines in an impressive display of crystal ball gazing accurately predicted oil was $100-bound and that gasoline would follow suit by reaching $4 a gallon.

His latest prediction of $200 oil is open to question, since it would undoubtedly create considerable global economic distress. Further, just about every energy expert I talk to cautions me to expect a sizable pullback in oil prices, maybe to between $50 and $70 a barrel, especially if there's a global economic slowdown.

While Mr. Gaines thinks there could be a temporary decline in the oil price, he's convinced an overall uptrend is unstoppable. In fact, he thinks his $200 forecast could be conservative, and that perhaps $250 could be reached. His reasoning: a combination of shrinking supply and increasing demand, especially from China, India, and America.

Mr. Brodrick's $200 oil forecast is largely predicated on a combination of pretty flat supply and rip-roaring demand. Other key catalysts include surging demand in China and India, where auto sales are booming, and major supply disruptions in Nigeria and also in Mexico, our second-largest source of oil imports, where oil production has fallen off a cliff.

More factors include the ever-present danger of additional supply disruptions from volatile countries in the Middle East that are not our allies, and the unwillingness of SUV-loving Americans to trim their unquenchable thirst for foreign oil. Likewise, for the first time, emerging markets this year will use more oil than America.

To Mr. Brodrick, it all adds up to an ongoing energy bull market. His favorite plays are the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ; United States Natural Gas Fund LP; Apache Corp.; Occidental Petroleum; Anadarko Petroleum, and Schlumberger.


I wonder what people will do at $10 a gallon.

al_bundy
04-28-08, 02:47 PM
i read somewhere that in the 1970's oil prices went up 1800%, so if the same thing happens again it means $600 for a barrel of oil. depends on which year you use as a base

on CNN this weekend they had people in san francisco complaining that it was too expensive to drive their Expedition

naitram
04-28-08, 09:58 PM
on CNN this weekend they had people in san francisco complaining that it was too expensive to drive their Expedition

Oh, well fucking no shit...Capt. Obvious realizing his armored personnel carrier getting a little pricey to drive? HAHAHA I laugh at thee...

Lord Rick
04-28-08, 10:19 PM
Laugh all you want, when the price of your food triples.

Man, I sure am glad we elected an oil man. Twice.

Shame we didn't invest in alternative energy 8 years ago.

Say goodbye to the US economy. It was nice while it lasted.

Lord Rick
04-29-08, 06:04 AM
Good we invested so much in the 8 years previous to that. -rolleyes- And with Mr. Environment as VP, no less.

Totally agree. The only difference is that gas was .80 a gallon back then, but still it would have been smart.

However, Al Gore did run on the platform of alternative energy research and independence in 2000.

al_bundy
04-29-08, 07:54 AM
Laugh all you want, when the price of your food triples.

Man, I sure am glad we elected an oil man. Twice.

Shame we didn't invest in alternative energy 8 years ago.

Say goodbye to the US economy. It was nice while it lasted.

that was too funny, a lot of money is invested in alternative energy research every year

classicman2
04-29-08, 08:04 AM
Totally agree. The only difference is that gas was .80 a gallon back then, but still it would have been smart.

However, Al Gore did run on the platform of alternative energy research and independence in 2000.

I'm all for investing in alternative energy research.

However, we should not lose touch with reality. It ain't going to make us energy independent. We're never going to be energy independent.

That was my principal problem with Bush's first energy proposal - it didn't 'devote' enough money for alternative energy research. Having said that, it's the best plan I've seen coming out of the administration or the Congress in many years.

DVD Polizei
04-29-08, 09:11 AM
that was too funny, a lot of money is invested in alternative energy research every year

Like the corn fuel solution? Lot of good that's doing. How about investment in non-fuel vehicles and offering them at an affordable price instead of a price which most people laugh at. Most of the US's investments in "alternative energy" is just a bunch of experimental bullshit which never works, but hey, the Green Company that comes up with the idiot idea, seems to like the cash they get from the US government to create such crap.

The American citizen is getting fucked at so many ends...eventually...people are just going to stop paying for certain goods, and will just take them. But before this happens, you'll see skyrocketing insurance fraud.

VinVega
04-29-08, 09:16 AM
Just to hedge my bets, I'm going to be looking for gas cap locks this weekend. They used to have them in the gas crunch of the 1970's and then went away from them as gas got cheap. I want to be prepared for what is ahead as I have to do a lot of driving for work and some of the locations are not in the best areas. Do most auto shops like Pep Boys and Autozone sell gas cap locks?

al_bundy
04-29-08, 09:21 AM
http://www.gogreenexpo.com/

they just had an expo in NYC full of companies that are doing real business in "green" solutions. the CEO of GE said that his company alone spends $5 billion a year in alternative energy research. combine that with other big companies and the national lab in colorado that does alternative energy research and it's a lot of resources.

wal mart is investing a lot of money and has a committment to reduce energy usage by 20%. they even opened a prototype store that uses almost no energy

whole foods market is doing business with a solar energy company to install panels on their store roofs

a lot of companies are building new stores with new designs to reduce energy usage like having sky lights instead of using lights

there was a milk carton thread a few weeks ago. turns out someone made a new design for gallon milk jugs and now they can transport twice as much per load

al_bundy
04-29-08, 09:22 AM
Just to hedge my bets, I'm going to be looking for gas cap locks this weekend. They used to have them in the gas crunch of the 1970's and then went away from them as gas got cheap. I want to be prepared for what is ahead as I have to do a lot of driving for work and some of the locations are not in the best areas. Do most auto shops like Pep Boys and Autozone sell gas cap locks?


i might do the same thing

last month when i took my car out i noticed it was almost empty. wife drove it, but it seemed too low

orangecrush
04-29-08, 09:24 AM
Could new oil fields in Brazil end reliance on Middle East?

No.

Because our US oil companies don't want to change the way it is.
I am sure that US oil companies would love to be allowed to drill more than they currently are. Why would US oil companies want the Middle East to produce more oil than they do?

TheNightFlier
04-29-08, 09:25 AM
Just to hedge my bets, I'm going to be looking for gas cap locks this weekend. They used to have them in the gas crunch of the 1970's and then went away from them as gas got cheap. I want to be prepared for what is ahead as I have to do a lot of driving for work and some of the locations are not in the best areas. Do most auto shops like Pep Boys and Autozone sell gas cap locks?

Yeah, I'm pretty sure every auto place sells them.

TheNightFlier
04-29-08, 09:25 AM
I wonder what people will do at $10 a gallon.

Pay it?

orangecrush
04-29-08, 09:29 AM
Laugh all you want, when the price of your food triples.

Man, I sure am glad we elected an oil man. Twice.

Shame we didn't invest in alternative energy 8 years ago.

Say goodbye to the US economy. It was nice while it lasted.
8 years ago? Shame we didn't invest heavily 30 years ago when we had a real gas crises.

Palpadious
04-29-08, 10:10 AM
Mr. Fusion FTW!

http://www.outatime.it/public/40-mr_fusion.jpg

Mr. Fusion only powers the time circuits.

Nick Danger
04-29-08, 11:07 AM
8 years ago? Shame we didn't invest heavily 30 years ago when we had a real gas crises.

30 years ago we created CAFE standards, which required all the cars sold by a manufacturer to meet a minimum fuel economy. Since trucks and SUVs were used mostly for business use, they were exempted. So millions of people bought those exempted land yachts.

We also created a huge gasoline storage facility, to be used in case of national emergency. When gas went above $1.50 a gallon, people wanted to use it for commuters. Unfortunately, the recipe for gasoline had changed, and it couldn't be used.

Similarly, when gas went above $1.50 per gallon, people started agitating for immediate arctic drilling, instead of holding the reserves until we really needed them.

We developed much more fuel-efficient engines, and powerful V-4 engines. People bought V-10s. We developed better insulation and house construction. People decided that it was reasonable for a family of four to have a 2500 sq. ft. house with cathedral ceilings.

They keep their houses at 72 degrees in the winter because they don't like wearing a sweater indoors. They keep the air conditioning so low that summer brownouts are normal and acceptable. Thirty-five years ago, air conditioning was rare! People use up the resources as fast as they can, and call it the American way.

So why would have investment in alternative fuels made a difference?

The Bus
04-29-08, 11:50 AM
To be fair, the producers of I Am Legend don't think gas will reach $7 by 2012:

<img src="http://bp0.blogger.com/_GFo2NhVEkEk/R3ZnEC-ILBI/AAAAAAAAAbQ/4G1qFxBzSFg/s1600/IALgasPrices.jpg">

4KRG
04-29-08, 01:10 PM
Laugh all you want, when the price of your food triples.

Man, I sure am glad we elected an oil man. Twice.

Shame we didn't invest in alternative energy 8 years ago.

Say goodbye to the US economy. It was nice while it lasted.

:confused:

It is Ethanol made from corn that is the primary factor in driving up food prices (aka. Alternative Energy source, Bio Fuel).

I am not sure big oil is to blame for that one, the more Ethanol is used, the less oil is sold, so they are losing a ton if they were behind it and not a wise business practice ;)

Oil companies may be dirty, but fuel made from food sources is all the green eco friendly movement's idea and it was completely stupid. People in poorer countries are starving to death over it.

Dave99
04-29-08, 01:40 PM
They keep their houses at 72 degrees in the winter because they don't like wearing a sweater indoors. They keep the air conditioning so low that summer brownouts are normal and acceptable. Thirty-five years ago, air conditioning was rare! People use up the resources as fast as they can, and call it the American way.

So why would have investment in alternative fuels made a difference?

This doesn't bother me much, any electricity shortages can be fixed relatively easily. We have plenty of coal, and can build more nuclear plants if you can get NIMBY out of the way.

orangecrush
04-29-08, 02:41 PM
30 years ago we created CAFE standards, which required all the cars sold by a manufacturer to meet a minimum fuel economy. Since trucks and SUVs were used mostly for business use, they were exempted. So millions of people bought those exempted land yachts.

We also created a huge gasoline storage facility, to be used in case of national emergency. When gas went above $1.50 a gallon, people wanted to use it for commuters. Unfortunately, the recipe for gasoline had changed, and it couldn't be used.

Similarly, when gas went above $1.50 per gallon, people started agitating for immediate arctic drilling, instead of holding the reserves until we really needed them.

We developed much more fuel-efficient engines, and powerful V-4 engines. People bought V-10s. We developed better insulation and house construction. People decided that it was reasonable for a family of four to have a 2500 sq. ft. house with cathedral ceilings.

They keep their houses at 72 degrees in the winter because they don't like wearing a sweater indoors. They keep the air conditioning so low that summer brownouts are normal and acceptable. Thirty-five years ago, air conditioning was rare! People use up the resources as fast as they can, and call it the American way.

So why would have investment in alternative fuels made a difference?
I suspect that if solar panels and battery technology were more affordable, you would see them on nearly every home supplementing their electric consumption. However, you are probably right in thinking that people would just turn that thermostat to 73 in the winter.
It is also possible that things would have been invented to reduce the amount of energy consumed so significantly that we would have oil at $30 a barrel. It is hard to know "what could have been if only we had done X."

The Bus
04-29-08, 02:53 PM
It is hard to know "what could have been if only we had done X."

In my case, he might've made me Mod of the Book Forum. :(

grundle
04-29-08, 04:24 PM
The price of a gallon of gasolne is too expensive. To solve this problem, I think someone should redifine a gallon as being two quarts instead of four.

It worked for ice cream. Half gallon ice cream containers were downsized from 2 quarts to 1.75 quarts, and now some are down to 1.5 quarts. It's only a matter of time until half a gallon is 1 quart, so a gallon will be 2 quarts.

Shazam
04-29-08, 04:29 PM
In my case, he might've made me Mod of the Book Forum. :(There's a book forum here?

Trout
04-29-08, 04:53 PM
It worked for ice cream. Half gallon ice cream containers were downsized from 2 quarts to 1.75 quarts, and now some are down to 1.5 quarts. It's only a matter of time until half a gallon is 1 quart, so a gallon will be 2 quarts.

Legally they can't be called half gallons. People call them 1/2's still because they don't know what else to call them.

VinVega
04-29-08, 07:05 PM
The price of a gallon of gasolne is too expensive. To solve this problem, I think someone should redifine a gallon as being two quarts instead of four.

It worked for ice cream. Half gallon ice cream containers were downsized from 2 quarts to 1.75 quarts, and now some are down to 1.5 quarts. It's only a matter of time until half a gallon is 1 quart, so a gallon will be 2 quarts.
Well if we go by liters like they do in Europe. It's only 90 cents a liter. :banana:

Lord Rick
04-29-08, 08:03 PM
that was too funny, a lot of money is invested in alternative energy research every year

I'll GUARANTEE it's far less than is given in subsidies to the oil companies.

DVD Polizei
04-29-08, 08:27 PM
I am sure that US oil companies would love to be allowed to drill more than they currently are. Why would US oil companies want the Middle East to produce more oil than they do?

They sure want Libya's oil, if that's what you mean. If not, please elaborate or post a link to the story about American Oil Companies who just want to get along in these troubling times.

kvrdave
04-29-08, 11:24 PM
I'll GUARANTEE it's far less than is given in subsidies to the oil companies.

As an overall amount, that is probably true. As a percentage of energy, I doubt it is even close. Most windmills being put up are worth putting up only because of the tax credits (which can be nearly 40% of a project) make it economical.

America shows no interest in solving its dependance on foreign oil, so there is little we should complain about with the price. If I were OPEC, I would change anything until I saw us start to do something....then I'd work to drop the price down to where we quit looking again.

Nick Danger
04-30-08, 06:27 AM
As an overall amount, that is probably true. As a percentage of energy, I doubt it is even close. Most windmills being put up are worth putting up only because of the tax credits (which can be nearly 40% of a project) make it economical.

America shows no interest in solving its dependance on foreign oil, so there is little we should complain about with the price. If I were OPEC, I would change anything until I saw us start to do something....then I'd work to drop the price down to where we quit looking again.

That's been a source of tension within OPEC for years. The countries with small reserves want to run up the price and make a quick killing. The countries with big reserves, like Saudi Arabia, want to keep the price low enough that we will be long-term, dependable customers.

The Bus
04-30-08, 07:10 AM
As an overall amount, that is probably true. As a percentage of energy, I doubt it is even close. Most windmills being put up are worth putting up only because of the tax credits (which can be nearly 40% of a project) make it economical.

IIRC tax credits for solar panels in NJ and NY cover 90% of the cost of the project, so you end up paying only about $1000 or less. I'd love to get some, only because I like the idea of living off-grid, or even profiting from any energy you create.

classicman2
04-30-08, 07:55 AM
Interesting Senate committee hearing held yesterday on the 'oil crisis' - 2 oil analysts testified before the committee. They said the world's oil production is currently 87 million bbls. per day. World consumption is a little less than 85 million bbls. per day.

If that's true - and I've heard it from others - what is driving this current spike in the price of oil?

VinVega
04-30-08, 07:57 AM
Interesting Senate committee hearing held yesterday on the 'oil crisis' - 2 oil analysts testified before the committee. They said the world's oil production is currently 87 million bbls. per day. World consumption is a little less than 85 million bbls. per day.

If that's true - and I've heard it from others - what is driving this current spike in the price of oil?
Well, somebody's lying. That's all I know.

classicman2
04-30-08, 08:19 AM
One of the analyst said that considering the current cost of production oil should be selling between $50 -$60 per bbl.

orangecrush
04-30-08, 09:27 AM
Interesting Senate committee hearing held yesterday on the 'oil crisis' - 2 oil analysts testified before the committee. They said the world's oil production is currently 87 million bbls. per day. World consumption is a little less than 85 million bbls. per day.

If that's true - and I've heard it from others - what is driving this current spike in the price of oil?
greedy oil compaines. I wonder how many barrels of oil countries are putting in reserves every day?

orangecrush
04-30-08, 09:29 AM
They sure want Libya's oil, if that's what you mean. If not, please elaborate or post a link to the story about American Oil Companies who just want to get along in these troubling times.
I am not exactly sure what you mean. Are you saying that the American Oil Companies prefer the "chaos" of the times driving up prices? If so, I would completely agree that they like the "enviorment of high prices."

The Bus
04-30-08, 09:49 AM
Interesting Senate committee hearing held yesterday on the 'oil crisis' - 2 oil analysts testified before the committee. They said the world's oil production is currently 87 million bbls. per day. World consumption is a little less than 85 million bbls. per day.

If that's true - and I've heard it from others - what is driving this current spike in the price of oil?

Speculation is probably adding about $20 a barrel to today's oil price, Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp., said in a Bloomberg Television interview late yesterday in Rome.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0S84KJ7fQTc&refer=home

kvrdave
04-30-08, 02:35 PM
Interesting Senate committee hearing held yesterday on the 'oil crisis' - 2 oil analysts testified before the committee. They said the world's oil production is currently 87 million bbls. per day. World consumption is a little less than 85 million bbls. per day.

If that's true - and I've heard it from others - what is driving this current spike in the price of oil?

The fact that we seem to keep buying it, I think. It will take several months of declined use before the market starts to correct itself, and once we see $2.75 a gallon, we'll feel spoiled and buy our SUVs again.

bhk
04-30-08, 03:46 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/04/30/shell.qa/index.html

Shell Oil president: To cut price, produce more gasoline in U.S.

CNN) -- Gasoline prices set a record for the 16th consecutive day Wednesday. A gallon of gas cost an average of $3.62, according to AAA, and much more in some markets.

All three presidential candidates have weighed in on the issue, and President Bush on Tuesday addressed it during a news conference.

John Hofmeister, president of Shell Oil Co., the U.S. division of Royal Dutch Shell, addressed rising gasoline prices during an interview Wednesday with John Roberts on CNN's "American Morning."

ROBERTS: What do you say to people who are in this budget crunch of trying to fill up the family car?

HOFMEISTER: I say we need more gas to be produced in this country. I've been saying that for three years, ever since I took this position [as president of Shell].

If the U.S. set a goal to produce 2 to 3 million barrels more a day in this country, we would send a shock around the world that would immediately say to the speculators, hey, U.S. is serious. President [Bush] said something yesterday about this. I didn't hear him, but I think that's good news. But we should set a specific target.

The presidential candidates should be out there on the postings saying let's increase domestic production by 2 to 3 million barrels a day. That would be something that would put money back into this country, jobs back into this country, and it would bring more supply toward the Americans who need it.
ROBERTS: The president is advocating more drilling on U.S. territory. Isn't it true that globally we're starting to reach a peak in production and that within maybe a decade or two oil production will begin to decrease?

HOFMEISTER: Well, I think there is some argument [that] with convenient, easy oil we will peak sometime in the next decade. I think Shell sees that coming, but in terms of total oil supply to the world, we're a long way from reaching peak oil because it doesn't take into account unconventional oil.

I think the president brings up a good point in that we could, we have the available domestic supplies off the coast of Alaska as well as [the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge]. Shell has won $2 billion worth of high bids for the Chukchi Sea -- that's a few years off before we could begin production.

But let's remember there's more than 100 billion barrels of untouched oil and gas in this country that is subject to a 30-year moratorium. Now, there's only one body in this country that can set a 30-year moratorium, and that's the U.S. government.

ROBERTS: Sen. Hillary Clinton wants to slap you with a 50 percent tax on what she calls windfall profit, profit above a certain level. Is that a good idea?

HOFMEISTER: Look at our revenues and our income for the last quarter. If we had made $7.8 million on $114 million of revenue, nobody would call that excessive, because that's 7 percent. We made $7.8 billion profit on $114 billion revenue -- same 7 percent. So to me that is not an excessive number when banks and pharmaceuticals and IT companies earn a whole lot more. ...

I guess drilling more of our own oil to reduce prices is too simple a concept for our idiot politicians.

kvrdave
04-30-08, 03:50 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/04/30/shell.qa/index.html


I guess drilling more of our own oil to reduce prices is too simple a concept for our idiot politicians.

I heard some Senator saying that ANWAR would take 10 years to get any oil. They have been saying that for 10 years. If they had started, we'd have it by now.

He also claimed it would affect gas prices by 1 penny. Obviously they don't take into affect what would happen if we actually shows the world we intend to take action. I believe that alone would drop the price back to $80 in the course of 2 months.

bhk
04-30-08, 03:54 PM
There is a saying that "the best time to get started was 25 years ago. The next best time to start is today."

4KRG
04-30-08, 03:57 PM
If that's true - and I've heard it from others - what is driving this current spike in the price of oil?


Ok, I'll bite, what? Exxon-Mobil has simply set the price that high?

I will guess that speculators trading oil futures have something to do with it
I will guess the US dollars value on the world market has something to do with it
I will guess that the mandated Ethanol blend into gas has something to do with it
I will guess that refinery limits and caps and the lack of any new drilling on US owned soil has something to do with it
I will guess that world demand for oil increase has something to do with it


I think the enviros have more of a reason to keep prices high than the oil companies do. The higher the price of gas and oil, the more demand there will be for alternatives fuels. The largest hurdle alternative fuels have had to overcome is their cost compared to oil, well looky there, that is starting to change, hmmmm.... Blame Al Gore?

VinVega
04-30-08, 06:16 PM
Yahoo Story (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080430/us_nm/exxon_dc)

Rockefellers call for change at Exxon Mobil

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Members of the Rockefeller family are calling on Exxon Mobil Corp to make corporate governance changes and adopt a renewable fuels strategy to help address the soaring cost of energy.


John D. Rockefeller founded the Standard Oil Co in 1870, which was a precursor to Exxon Mobil. Exxon Mobil is the world's largest publicly traded oil company based on market capitalization, and is a favorite target of consumer advocate groups and politicians unhappy with record prices for oil and gas and its effects on the environment.

Fifteen descendants of the oil baron are involved in four shareholder resolutions seeking changes at Exxon, including dividing the CEO and chairmanship positions.

They also seek to establish a task force study of the consequences of global warning on poor economies, called on Exxon to reduce greenhouse gas emission at its own operations and adopt a renewable energy policy.

Exxon is "profiting in the short term from investments and decisions made many years ago by focusing on the narrow path that ignores the rapidly shifting energy landscape around the world, including developing nations," said Neva Rockefeller Goodwin, great granddaughter of John D. Rockefeller.

Goodwin called on Exxon to reconnect with the forward-looking vision of her great grandfather.

"Kerosene was the alternative energy of its day when he realized it could replace whale oil. Part of John D. Rockefeller's genius was in recognizing early the need and opportunity for a transition to a better, cheaper and cleaner fuel."

Exxon's annual meeting is scheduled for May 28.
Kudos to the Rockefeller descendants for at least saying the right thing and trying to push Exxon-Mobil towards alternative energy. There's no reason why the oil companies can't become "energy" companies. I don't care if they make a lot of money, but when they're shortsighted and are only looking to make a quick buck with no concern for future energy possibilities it hurts everyone including them.

classicman2
04-30-08, 06:20 PM
Point - supply & demand is not driving it if analysts are to be believed.

IMO the principal driving force is speculators trading of oil futures.

For our 'let's drill fans' (and I believe in expanded exploration & drilling), do you'll know how long it takes from the surveying point to the point where the well is 'brought in?'

bhk
04-30-08, 07:04 PM
For our 'let's drill fans' (and I believe in expanded exploration & drilling), do you'll know how long it takes from the surveying point to the point where the well is 'brought in?'
A lot less time than not drilling at all.

Seriously though, if the US announces an intention to drill where oil is regardless of what environmental whackos want, it will greatly reduce the price because it will reduce the speculation component of the price of oil.

Lord Rick
04-30-08, 07:24 PM
A little more oil won't solve anything. Drilling is not the solution.

No kidding. (I can't believe VI agrees with me.)

Not to mention the fact that many of you are ignoring is that the oil companies and refiners absolutely do not want to provide more supply because they are make RECORD PROFITS on current prices. Hello? Is anyone listening? McFly?

bhk
04-30-08, 07:49 PM
A little more oil won't solve anything. Drilling is not the solution.

The truth is that no one knows how much more oil is accessible. Some of the largest oil fields in the world ever discovered have been discovered within the past 5-7 years. It isn't just "a little more oil" that we're talking about, it is a lot more oil.

bhk
04-30-08, 07:51 PM
No kidding. (I can't believe VI agrees with me.)

Not to mention the fact that many of you are ignoring is that the oil companies and refiners absolutely do not want to provide more supply because they are make RECORD PROFITS on current prices. Hello? Is anyone listening? McFly?

They're making record profits because much more oil is being used(around the world). They're selling more on the same profit margin or just slightly higher margin than that they've had in the past(around 7% profit).

eXcentris
04-30-08, 10:45 PM
What makes people think that the US producing more oil would translate to lower oil prices for the US consumers? If having more oil meant lower domestic prices, Canadians would be paying much less for gas than Americans are.

International aggreements (including NAFTA) do not allow:

1. Restricting oil exports to favor domestic markets.

2. Selling oil at lower prices in domestic markets.

As a side note, I find it odd when I hear that Hillary and Obama want to re-nogiate NAFTA (although I understand it's a hot issue and politically, it's the "vote getting" position to take). One, what makes them think Canada (or Mexico) would want to renegotiate? Two, what makes them think they can get a better "deal" now? As our PM Stephen Harper aptly pointed out last week, Canada (as an energy rich country) would be in a far better position in any new negotiations than it was 20 years ago.

kvrdave
04-30-08, 11:25 PM
They're making a profit because oil is scarce, not the other way around.

Prices incorporate expectations.

Oil is not scarce. Extracting may be scarce and refining may be scarce, but oil is not.

kvrdave
04-30-08, 11:26 PM
What makes people think that the US producing more oil would translate to lower oil prices for the US consumers? If having more oil meant lower domestic prices, Canadians would be paying much less for gas than Americans are.

International aggreements (including NAFTA) do not allow:

1. Restricting oil exports to favor domestic markets.

2. Selling oil at lower prices in domestic markets.

As a side note, I find it odd when I hear that Hillary and Obama want to re-nogiate NAFTA (although I understand it's a hot issue and politically, it's the "vote getting" position to take). One, what makes them think Canada (or Mexico) would want to renegotiate? Two, what makes them think they can get a better "deal" now? As our PM Stephen Harper aptly pointed out last week, Canada (as an energy rich country) would be in a far better position in any new negotiations than it was 20 years ago.

Absolutely true. While it probably wasn't a main focus when it was written, we have you by the Canadian French hairs under NAFTA where your oil is concerned.

4KRG
05-01-08, 02:15 PM
Point - supply & demand is not driving it if analysts are to be believed.


There has never been one single issue that has driven the price of oil/gas. It is always more factors than most people can account for, so nothing new here.


IMO the principal driving force is speculators trading of oil futures.


but what are the dozen or so factors that are driving speculators to new highs?

Since you seem to know, can you list those factor out for us?



For our 'let's drill fans' (and I believe in expanded exploration & drilling), do you'll know how long it takes from the surveying point to the point where the well is 'brought in?'

The "let's drill" fans (of which I am one) realize that oil consumption is going to increase globally every year for the next many many many years. It takes probably 8-12 years to get oil out of a new rig. If we start drilling now, in the time it takes to get the oil, the demand will be there.

Right now there is only a 2% surplus of oil on the market, that is nothing.

wendersfan
05-01-08, 02:59 PM
As a side note, I find it odd when I hear that Hillary and Obama want to re-nogiate NAFTA (although I understand it's a hot issue and politically, it's the "vote getting" position to take). One, what makes them think Canada (or Mexico) would want to renegotiate? Two, what makes them think they can get a better "deal" now? As our PM Stephen Harper aptly pointed out last week, Canada (as an energy rich country) would be in a far better position in any new negotiations than it was 20 years ago.The people to whom Obama and Clinton are pandering with the anti-NAFTA rhetoric aren't bright or informed enough to understand your point.

classicman2
05-01-08, 03:14 PM
I don't think we should renegotiate NAFTA with Canada.

I think we should take over the country, and exploit the hell out of their natural resources.

:)

orangecrush
05-01-08, 03:42 PM
I don't think we should renegotiate NAFTA with Canada.

I think we should take over the country, and exploit the hell out of their natural resources.

:)
Like their comedians? Don't worry; they all come here eventually.

eXcentris
05-01-08, 06:59 PM
Actually our comedians are exploiting you. :)

VinVega
05-05-08, 01:18 PM
Just to hedge my bets, I'm going to be looking for gas cap locks this weekend. They used to have them in the gas crunch of the 1970's and then went away from them as gas got cheap. I want to be prepared for what is ahead as I have to do a lot of driving for work and some of the locations are not in the best areas. Do most auto shops like Pep Boys and Autozone sell gas cap locks?
Well, the PepBoys I went to by my house was completely out of gas caps locks for my make and model car. My wife's car was in stock so we bought one of those. Their supplier is also out of stock. Looks like there has been a huge run on locking gas caps. I wonder why? ;)

classicman2
05-05-08, 03:19 PM
VinVega,

Your presence is needed in the 2008 election thread. We're attempting to separate the real Democrats from the 'others.' ;)


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