The Antipodean

Holy moses. Early numbers up at www.showbizdata.com, and Break-Up is looking to open at $40 million or so -- and X-Men has plummeted 77%! Ye gods. I liked X3 a lot myself, but guess the word of mouth is el stinko. Oh well. Other people's opinions won't keep me from liking it or buying the DVD....

Friday estimates

1. BREAK-UP, THE UNIVERSAL 3,067 15,810,000 5,155 n/a 15,810,000
2. X-MEN: THE LAST STAND 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,714 10,150,000 2,733 -77% 151,471,000
3. OVER THE HEDGE PARAMOUNT 3,993 5,380,000 1,347 -29% 97,091,000
4. DA VINCI CODE SONY 3,757 5,223,000 1,390 -49% 158,576,000
5. MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE 3 - MI3 PARAMOUNT 2,667 1,200,000 450 -39% 119,181,000
6. POSEIDON WARNER BROS. 2,720 962,000 354 -42% 49,234,000
7. RV SONY 2,181 862,000 395 -25% 59,368,000
8. SEE NO EVIL LIONS GATE 1,270 610,000 480 -20% 10,971,000
9. INCONVENIENT TRUTH, AN PARAMOUNT 77 412,000 5,351 400% 966,118
10. JUST MY LUCK 20TH CENTURY FOX 958 245,000 256 -58% 14,992,000

Terrell

Damn! I expected a 60% dropoff, but nothing approaching that kind of fall. The fact that last weekend was a holiday and it making 107 million dollars is probably why the dropoff was so huge. I never expected it to make what it did in it's first weekend. So now it's looking at a 30-35 million dollar second weekend take.

OldBoy

i always think showbiz estimate #'s are usually under quite a bit. i like boxofficemojo's better. don't know which is the most accurate though, but seems bom is usually spot on as opposed to showbiz.

onebyone

I never would have guessed The Break Up would open that well. I had it pinned to open at ummm about half that. *Hangs head in shame** I know folks like Vince Vaughn, but the trailer for the movie looks just so bad.

I heard a lot of bad word of mouth on X-Men 3 this week. It's not too surprising it dropped a lot, although the amount it dropped kind of shocks me. That's like The Hulk.

Deftones

As if it wasn't expected X-men was mostly front loaded. It'll surpass $225 millon and fade away. Still, a great B.O. for it, considering most weren't expecting too much from it.

DRG

I think the weekend-to-weekend dropoff for X3 won't be anywhere near as drastic as the Friday-to-Friday dropoff. It's still a sizable dropoff (likely 65-70%) but it is also inflated by the fact it was Memorial Day weekend and thus the Sunday for last week's 3-day total was higher than a normal Sunday would be.

Over the Hedge should pull in 18-20 mil, a nice little chuck of change before it gets run over by Cars next week.

Al Gore cracks the top ten.

deadlax

If X3 drops from friday to saturday it's going to have a hard time making any more than 200M.

maingon

yeah but its a 77% drop from over a hundred million, I didnt think it would do 50 million again in its second weekend, it should do 30-35 million in its second weekend, still not bad

slabinskia

WOW,do I look like a fool after saying x-3 has a shot at 300m.I didn't think it would take that much of a hit.Over the Hedge is still bringing in decent numbers.What are the odds of OTH ending up with more money than MI3 ?

SunMonkey

I know I haven't recommended anyone see X3 on the big screen. I wouldn't have seen it myself if I didn't have free movie tickets for it.

I am surprised about The Break Up. Maybe the bogo offer helped.

Mr. Cinema

Box Office Mojo has The Break Up's Friday total with $13.7 million. I'm gonna believe that number. I won't be surprised if it drops today. I don't think word-of-mouth is going to be too good.

A 70% drop is terrible, no matter how much you make the first weekend. 70% = shitty word-of-mouth.

Even The Matrix Reloaded, which is hated by many (it's my favorite of the 3), had a similar start. It grossed $134 million during its 5 day release. During its second weekend, it dropped 59.8%, which is what probably most thought X3 would do, but 70% is huge.

maingon

I think x-men will do better today and tomorrow then the breakup

Deftones

Look at it's weekday numbers. If it continues to half of what it did on a day to day basis, it'll easily surpass $200 million.

Terrell

Well, you'd have to make the same argument about the first two films as well. It's not shitty word of mouth. All of the X-Men films have been heavily front-loaded. All of them had sizeable, if not big, drops in their second weekend. Nearly every summer film is front-loaded. It's just the nature of the beast. X3 will bank the most coin of the three. But it was unrealistic to expect it to make more than 250 million.

Mr. Cinema

After making $122 million during its first 4 days, making a final projection of $250 million total wouldn't be out of the ordinary. That's only asking the film to double its opening gross.

X2 had a 53% drop during its second week. Matrix Reloaded had a near 60% drop, but it still finished with $281 million here. X3 won't get close to that now after this weekend is done.

Jackskeleton

Did it really have a strong saturday last week? It was a fairly decent drop from friday to saturday. I expect much the same.

PopcornTreeCt

Considering how huge the opening was X3 I doubt studio analysts are too worried about how much it drops off. After tomorrow's numbers it will have grossed more than the first X-Men movie.

DRG

Friday-to-Saturday drops are quite common in the first weekends (especially with sequels), but rare in second weekends and beyond.

Terrell

I don't know what Matrix has to do with this. Different film, different circumstances. It doesn't matter how the film makes it's money, as long as it makes it. This film will end up making more than the first two. But even with the huge opening, I expected a big dropoff and a final tally under 250 million dollars. I just don't think you can blame the dropoff on shitty word of mouth. If that were the case, you could blame practically every summer film with a big dropoff on shitty word of mouth. It had a big dropoff because it made in excess of 100 million dollars on it's first weekend, and because it's the typical summer event film.

clemente

People aren't waiting to go to the movies anymore, almost all big movies are front loaded now. It's most that likely that the majority of the audience who wanted to see X3 did so last weekend. It shouldn't still finish the weekend with about $25-30 million which will bring it that much closer to matching the take of X2.

This is typical sequel behavior.

tvpuff

I'm not sure what you guys are talking about, defending x3's numbers. An 80% drop is not typical or good for any film; summer blockbuster, sequel or otherwise. The Matrix Reloaded comparison is logical as it is another case of a sequel where the critical response was fairly mixed, audience word of mouth has been overwhelmingly negative, and the opening weekend box office was huge. I'm not saying the movie hasn't made huge bank, which it has. The drop is huge though, and just looking at other movies with that kind of opening box office performance, is most likely based on terrible word of mouth.

Matthew Chmiel

80%? Did you not pass statistics in high school? If the film barely makes $30 million this weekend, it's a drop of nearly 70%, not 80%.

Still, 70% is a huge fucking drop regardless of any film.

Supermallet

I don't know what planet you live on, but just because you liked X3, doesn't mean it hasn't gotten terrible word of mouth. I personally have stopped at least a dozen people were seeing it, just by how vehemently I spoke out against it. This is a huge drop and the reason it's so huge is because of bad word of mouth. Obviously some of it is because it was front-loaded, but the drop wouldn't be as big as it would without the word of mouth.

QuikSilver

Wow that sure is a big drop for X3. Word of mouth is definitely bad.

TheAllPurposeNothing

Big suprise to me are the numbers for an Inconvenient Truth. Not Farenheit 9-11 numbers but for a film playing in only 77 theatres, not too shabby.