The One & Only 2005 Oscar Prediction Thread: Who will win, who should win discussion

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01-31-06, 01:36 PM

Mr. Cinema

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The One & Only 2005 Oscar Prediction Thread: Who will win, who should win discussion

2005 Oscar Predictions - FINAL PICKS

Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: Crash

Best Directing
Brokeback Mountain - Ang Lee
Capote - Bennett Miller
Crash - Paul Haggis
Good Night, and Good Luck - George Clooney
Munich - Steven Spielberg

who will win: Ang Lee
who should win: Steven Spielberg

Best Actor
Terrence Howard - Hustle and Flow
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck

who will win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
who should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Best Actress
Judy Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Keira Knightley - Pride and Prejudice
Charlize Theron - North Country
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line

who will win: Reese Witherspoon
who should win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney - Syriana
Matt Dillon - Crash
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt - A History of Violence

who will win: George Clooney
who should win: Paul Giamatti
possible spoiler: Jake Gyllenhaal

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Junebug
Catherine Keener - Capote
Francis McDormand - North Country
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain

who will win: Rachel Weisz
who should win: Amy Adams
possible spoiler: Michelle Williams

Best Screenplay (Original)
Crash - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco
Good Night, and Good Luck - Grant Heslov, George Clooney
Match Point - Woody Allen
The Squid and the Whale - Noah Baumbach
Syriana - Stephen Gaghan

what will win: Crash
what should win: The Squid and the Whale

Best Screenplay (Adapted)
Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana
Capote - Dan Futterman
The Constant Gardener - Jeffrey Caine
A History of Violence - John Wagner, Vince Locke
Munich - Tony Kushner & Eric Roth

what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: Capote

Best Animated Feature
Howl's Moving Castle
Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride
Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

what will win: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
what should win: Tim Burton's Corpse Bride

Best Foreign Language Film
Don't Tell
Joyeux Noel
Paradise Now
Sophie Scholl - The Final Days
Tsotsi

what will win: Tsotsi
what should win: no clue

Best Film Editing
Cinderella Man
Crash
The Constant Gardener
Munich
Walk the Line

what will win: Crash
what should win: Munich

Best Cinematography
Batman Begins
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World

what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: Batman Begins

Best Art Direction
Good Night, and Good Luck
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Pride & Prejudice

what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
what should win: King Kong

Best Sound Mixing
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Walk the Line
War of the Worlds

what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong
possible spoiler: Walk the Line

Best Sound Editing
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
War of the Worlds

what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong
possible spoiler: War of the Worlds

Best Costume Design
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Memoirs of a Geisha
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
Walk the Line

what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
what should win: Walk the Line
possible spoiler: Pride & Prejudice

Best Makeup
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Line, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
Cinderella Man
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

what will win: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Line, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
what should win: Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

Best Visual Effects
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Line, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
King Kong
War of the Worlds

what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong

Best Music (Score)
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Pride & Prejudice

what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
what should win: Munich
possible spoiler: Brokeback Mountain

Best Music (Song)
"In the Deep" - Crash
"It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" - Hustle & Flow
"Travelin' Thru" - Transamerica

what will win: Crash
what should win: Hustle and Flow
possible spoiler: Transamerica

Last edited by Mr. Cinema; 03-05-06 at 09:22 AM.

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01-31-06, 02:12 PM

Jackskeleton

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I'll toss my predictions into the mix

Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain

what should win: Brokeback Mountain

Best Directing
Brokeback Mountain - Ang Lee

who should win: Ang Lee

Best Actor
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Capote

who should win: Joaquin Phoenix

Best Actress
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line

who should win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man

who should win:George Clooney

Best Supporting Actress
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener

who should win: Michelle Williams

Best Screenplay (Original)
Crash - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco

what should win: Good Night, and Good Luck

Best Screenplay (Adapted)
Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana

what should win: Capote

Best Animated Feature
Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride

what should win: Corpse Bride

Best Foreign Language Film
Paradise Now

what should win: Paradise Now

Best Film Editing
Crash

what should win: Crash

Best Cinematography
Brokeback Mountain

what should win:Good Night, and Good Luck

Best Art Direction
Pride & Prejudice

what should win:Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Sound Mixing
Walk the Line

what should win:Walk the line

Best Sound Editing
King Kong

what should win: King Kong

Best Costume Design
Memoirs of a Geisha

what should win: Walk the Line

Best Makeup
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

what should win: Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

Best Visual Effects
King Kong

what should win: King Kong

Best Music (Score)
Brokeback Mountain

what should win: Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Music (Song)
"In the Deep" - Crash

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01-31-06, 02:19 PM

Grimfarrow

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Chicken Little isn't a Best Animated film nominee.

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01-31-06, 02:22 PM

Mr. Cinema

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That must have been leftover from my nominations prediction list. Changed now.

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01-31-06, 02:26 PM

Mr. Cinema

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Wow. Capote is opening on 800 screens starting Friday. That hasn't played on more than 130 since its Fall release. I may have to watch that again. More people need to see this.

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01-31-06, 02:26 PM

Giles

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Best Picture

what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: Capote

Best Directing

who will win: Ang Lee
who should win: Ang Lee

Best Actor

who will win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
who should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Best Actress

who will win: Reese Witherspoon
who should win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor

who will win: George Clooney
who should win: Paul Giamatti

Best Supporting Actress

who will win: Rachel Weisz
who should win: Catherine Keener

Best Screenplay (Original)

what will win: Crash
what should win: The Squid and the Whale

Best Screenplay (Adapted)

what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: Capote

Best Animated Feature

what will win: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
what should win: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Best Foreign Language Film

what will win: Paradise Now
what should win: Joyeux Noel

Best Film Editing

what will win: Crash
what should win: The Constant Gardener

Best Cinematography

what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: The New World

Best Art Direction

what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong

Best Sound Mixing

what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong

Best Sound Editing

what will win: King Kong
what should win: War of the Worlds

Best Costume Design

what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
what should win: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

Best Makeup

what will win: Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
what should win: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Line, the Witch, and the Wardrobe

Best Visual Effects

what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong

Best Music (Score)

what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
what should win: Munich

Best Music (Song)

what will win: no idea don't care
what should win: no idea don't care

Best Documentary

what will win: March of the Penguins
what should win: March of the Penguins

Last edited by Giles; 01-31-06 at 02:32 PM.

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01-31-06, 02:55 PM

Mr. Cinema

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Pretty good Oscar read:

http://www.efilmcritic.com/feature.php?feature=1700

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01-31-06, 03:00 PM

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lol at wallace and gromit should win. howl's moving castle was far more superior.

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01-31-06, 03:04 PM

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Best Picture

what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: Crash

Best Directing

who will win: Ang Lee
who should win: Ang Lee

Best Actor

who will win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
who should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Best Actress

who will win: Reese Witherspoon
who should win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor

who will win: Paul Giamatti
who should win: Paul Giamatti

Best Supporting Actress

who will win: Rachel Weisz
who should win: Rachel Weisz

Best Screenplay (Original)

what will win: Crash
what should win: The Squid and the Whale

Best Screenplay (Adapted)

what will win: Brokeback
what should win: Constant Gardener

Best Animated Feature

what will win: Howl's Moving Castle
what should win: Howl's Moving Castle

Best Foreign Language Film

what will win: Paradise Now
what should win: Tsotsi

Best Music (Score)

what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
what should win: Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Music (Song)

what will win: Crash
what should win: Crash

Last edited by Janus3; 01-31-06 at 03:27 PM.

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01-31-06, 03:04 PM

#10

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Best Picture
what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: Isn't nominated :P ... Munich

Best Directing
who will win: Ang Lee
who should win: Ang Lee

Best Actor
who will win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
who should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Best Actress
who will win: Reese Witherspoon
who should win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor
who will win: Paul Giamatti
who should win: Matt Dillon

Best Supporting Actress
who will win: Rachel Weisz
who should win: Amy Adams

Best Screenplay (Original)
what will win: The Squid and the Whale
what should win: Match Point

Best Screenplay (Adapted)
what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: A History of Violence

Best Animated Feature
what will win: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
what should win: Howl's Moving Castle

Best Foreign Language Film
what will win: Paradise Now
what should win: --

Best Film Editing
what will win: The Constant Gardener
what should win: The Constant Gardener

Best Cinematography
what will win: The New World
what should win: Batman Begins

Best Art Direction
what will win: King Kong (for NY scenes alone)
what should win: King Kong

Best Sound Mixing
what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong

Best Sound Editing
what will win: War of the Worlds
what should win: King Kong

Best Costume Design
what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
what should win: Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Makeup
what will win: Cinderella Man
what should win: Cinderella Man

Best Visual Effects
what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong

Best Music (Score)
what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: --

Best Music (Song)
what will win: Hustle and Flow
what should win: Hustle and Flow

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01-31-06, 03:40 PM

#11

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Quote:

lol at wallace and gromit should win. howl's moving castle was far more superior.

And Corpse Bride is superior to Howl's.

Last edited by jmj713; 01-31-06 at 04:01 PM.

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01-31-06, 03:41 PM

#12

Terrell

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http://www.efilmcritic.com/feature.php?feature=1700

Good article, and I pretty much agree with his Top 5 snubs.

Since I probably won't watch, I'll participate here.

Best Picture
what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: I agree with Rich here. Munich should win!

Best Directing
who will win: Ang Lee
who should win: Ang Lee

Best Actor
who will win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
who should win: Heath Ledger

Best Actress
who will win: Reese Witherspoon
who should win: This is a gimme. Reese Witherspoon

Best Screenplay (Adapted)
what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: Brokeback Mountain

Best Screenplay (Original)
what will win: The Squid and the Whale
what should win: The Squid and the Whale

Best Costume Design
what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
what should win: Memoirs of a Geisha, but saddened that Trisha Biggar was ignored!

Best Music (Score)
what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: Munich

Best Visual Effects
what will win: King Kong
what should win: I would have said Sith, but I'll have to go with War of the Worlds.

Best Makeup
what will win: Cinderella Man
what should win: ROTS, especially for Anakin's makeup. Though a Narnia win would be preferable to a Cinderella man win. It's not hard to do cuts and bruises. If Narnia or ROTS wins, I'll be happy.

Achievement in film editing
what will win: The Constant Gardner
what should win: Munich

Don't know enough of the other categories to pick.

Last edited by Terrell; 01-31-06 at 03:48 PM.

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01-31-06, 03:42 PM

#13

RichC2

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jmj713

[qoute]lol at wallace and gromit should win. howl's moving castle was far more superior.[/qoute]

And Corpse Bride is superior to Howl's.

I'd rank Corpse and Grommit about equal, Howl's is superior to both.

I enjoyed all 3 though, so I guess I'm in the winner in all that.

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01-31-06, 04:02 PM

#14

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At least there's no CGI animated film in this year's nominations!

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01-31-06, 04:17 PM

#15

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The last time I had so many movies to root for was in 1998. I'm glad things are spread out. Shows 2005 had some really good films.

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01-31-06, 05:00 PM

#16

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A good list this year overall.

Who will win:
Picture: Brokeback Mountain
Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Actress: Reese Witherspoon
Supporting: George Clooney
Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz
Director: Ang Lee

Who should win:
Picture: Brokeback Mountain
Actor: Heath Ledger (have not seen "Capote" yet though)
Actress: Reese Witherspoon
Supporting: Matt Dillon
Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz
Director: Ang Lee

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01-31-06, 07:34 PM

#17

conscience

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2005 Oscar Predictions:

Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: Capote

Best Directing

Brokeback Mountain - Ang Lee
Capote - Bennett Miller
Crash - Paul Haggis
Good Night, and Good Luck - George Clooney
Munich - Steven Spielberg

who will win: Ang Lee
who should win: Bennett Miller

Best Actor

Terrence Howard - Hustle and Flow
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck

who will win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
who should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Best Actress

Judy Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Keira Knightley - Pride and Prejudice
Charlize Theron - North Country
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line

who will win: Reese Witherspoon
who should win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor

George Clooney - Syriana
Matt Dillon - Crash
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt - A History of Violence

who will win: Paul Giamatti
who should win: None

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams - Junebug
Catherine Keener - Capote
Francis McDormand - North Country
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain

who will win: Rachel Weisz
who should win: Catherine Kenner

Best Screenplay (Original)

Crash - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco
Good Night, and Good Luck - Grant Heslov, George Clooney
Match Point - Woody Allen
The Squid and the Whale - Noah Baumbach
Syriana - Stephen Gaghan

what will win: Crash
what should win: The Squid and the Whale

Best Screenplay (Adapted)

Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana
Capote - Dan Futterman
The Constant Gardener - Jeffrey Caine
A History of Violence - John Wagner, Vince Locke
Munich - Tony Kushner & Eric Roth

what will win: Capote (I am holding out hope that the amateur BBM script will die a slow death)
what should win: Capote

Best Animated Feature

Howl's Moving Castle
Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride
Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

what will win: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
what should win: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Best Foreign Language Film

Don't Tell
Joyeux Noel
Paradise Now
Sophie Scholl - The Final Days
Tsotsi

what will win: Paradise Now
what should win: Paradise Now

Best Film Editing

Cinderella Man
Crash
The Constant Gardener
Munich
Walk the Line

what will win: Crash
what should win: The Constant Gardener

Best Cinematography

Batman Begins
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World

what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: The New World

Best Art Direction

Good Night, and Good Luck
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Pride & Prejudice

what will win: King Kong
what should win: Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Sound Mixing

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Walk the Line
War of the Worlds

what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong

Best Sound Editing

King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
War of the Worlds

what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong

Best Costume Design

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Memoirs of a Geisha
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
Walk the Line

what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
what should win: Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Makeup

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Line, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
Cinderella Man
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

what will win: Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
what should win: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Line, the Witch, and the Wardrobe

Best Visual Effects

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Line, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
King Kong
War of the Worlds

what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong

Best Music (Score)

Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Pride & Prejudice

what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
what should win: Brokeback Mountain (love this type of music)

Best Music (Song)

"In the Deep" - Crash
"It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" - Hustle & Flow
"Travelin' Thru" - Transamerica

what will win: Transamerica
what should win: Transamerica

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01-31-06, 09:47 PM

#18

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Best Picture
what will win: Crash
what should win: Broken Flowers, oh well.

Best Directing
who will win: Ang Lee
who should win: Paul Haggis

Best Actor
who will win: Phillip Seymour Hoffmann
who should win: Joaquin Phoenix

Best Actress
who will win: Reese Witherspoon
who should win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor
who will win: Paul Giamatti
who should win: Matt Dillon

Best Supporting Actress
who will win: --
who should win: --

Best Screenplay (Original)
what will win: Crash
what should win: Crash

Best Screenplay (Adapted)
what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: A History of Violence

Best Animated Feature
what will win: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
what should win: Corpse Bride

Best Foreign Language Film
what will win: --
what should win: --

Best Film Editing
what will win: Cinderella Man
what should win: Cinderella Man

Best Cinematography
what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: Batman Begins

Best Art Direction
what will win: -All the nominees suck-
what should win: --

Best Sound Mixing
what will win: --
what should win: --

Best Sound Editing
what will win: War of the Worlds
what should win: War of the Worlds

Best Costume Design
what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
what should win: Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Makeup
what will win: Cinderella Man
what should win: Cinderella Man

Best Visual Effects
what will win: War of the Worlds
what should win: War of the Worlds

Best Music (Score)
what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: Batman Begins

Best Music (Song)
what will win: --
what should win: --

This year is a bit of disappointment. The Academy went with all pseudo-indie films and they didn't pick the right ones.

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01-31-06, 09:52 PM

#19

conscience

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What non-pseudo indie films should have been nominated (other than Broken Flowers)?

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01-31-06, 11:30 PM

#20

MoviePage

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I don't make a judgment call on what should win until I see all of the nominees in a category. This year, thankfully, I've seen just about every nominee in every major group. Still have about 3 to catch up on, and hope to do that before Oscar night.

I'll post predictions closer to the day of the show. It's still over a month away and the buzz can change in that time. Although, since this is the first time that all of the precursor awards were already given out before the nominations were even announced, I guess there isn't much that can change except by way of pure hearsay.

Anyway, Time's Richard Corliss has made his picks. It's an interesting read: http://www.time.com/time/arts/articl...154754,00.html

I've been thinking for a while now that Huffman probably has a much better shot than people are giving her credit for. She has an awful lot of pros in her favor, and Witherspoon has a lot of cons working against her. Huffman may just end up being my out on a limb pick for this year, but I'm going to wait a couple of weeks before deciding on that one for sure.

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02-01-06, 01:36 AM

#21

RayChuang

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I'm surprised so many people here think Reese Witherspoon will win for her role in Walk the Line. This especially in light of Felicity Huffman's Golden Globe and SAG Award wins for her role in Transamerica.

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02-01-06, 03:30 AM

#22

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i can't believe only one person included best documentary in their pics...all I can say is that those fucking penguins better not beat Murderball - it's the best documentary i've seen in years.

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02-01-06, 03:45 AM

#23

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Quote:

Originally Posted by RayChuang

The Golden Globe awards split drama and music/comedy motion pictures. They gave Reese Witherspoon the best actress award for music/comedy motion picture. She also won the SAG award for Best Actress. Felicity Huffman did win for "Desperate Housewives". That said, I think Reese Witherspoon will win too.

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02-01-06, 04:39 AM

#24

mongoco

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I haven't seen Walk The Line yet but it seems kinda unfair that they keep mentioning Reese and Joaquin singing their parts as a reason for them to win. This is the Oscars not the Tonys.

Will: Crash/ Should: Brokeback
Will: Lee/Should: Lee
Will: Hoffman/Should: Ledger
Will: Witherspoon/Should: Huffman
Will: Clooney/Should: Gyllenhaal
Will: Weisz/Should: Williams

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02-01-06, 06:09 AM

#25

Mr. Cinema

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MoviePage

This Witherspoon/Huffman race reminds me of the Paltrow/Blanchett one in 1998. Witherspoon is the darling winner, but everyone thought Huffman deserved it. This is the only race where I see a potential upset. I still think Witherspoon will win because she's won everything else. Had "Walk the Line" been selected as Best Picture, this race is over. But it still was fairly well liked with 5 nods.

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