Oscar odds and favorites: who do you like?
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Oscar odds and favorites: who do you like?
saw the below article in the New York Post about oscar contenders. Still a little early, but what are you looking forward to seeing and what looks like best picture material to you?
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TWO-THIRDS of the way through the year, only two serious candidates for the Best Picture Oscar have yet emerged: "Crash" and "Cinderella Man." But the next four months are Hollywood's favorite time for prestige pictures, bringing us the return of Oscar favorites Steven Spielberg, Jamie Foxx, Cameron Crowe and Sean Penn. Here's a tip sheet for the early Oscar favorites.
Good Night. And Good Luck (Oct. 7)
George Clooney's second effort as a director tackles up-to-the-minute issues, taking on Sen. Joe McCarthy through the eyes of Edward R. Murrow (David Strathairn). Though the film is small in scale and shot in black and white, no political story gets Hollywood more excited than an attack on McCarthyism.
Prospects: Best Picture and Screenplay, Clooney for Best Director
Elizabethtown (Oct. 14)
Crowe's first film since the uneven "Vanilla Sky" is a hugely anticipated return to semi-autobiography for the writer-director of "Almost Famous," which won him a screenwriting Oscar. Orlando Bloom stars in this comedy-drama about a workaholic who buries his father but is cheered up by a stewardess (Kirsten Dunst). "Lord of the Rings" elf Bloom hasn't proven he's an actor yet, but with all the armor he's been lugging around lately, he hasn't had a chance.
Prospects: Crowe for Best Director and Best Screenplay
Northcountry (Oct. 14)
Walk the Line (Nov. 18)
This year's "Ray" wannabe is "Walk the Line," starring Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny Cash and Nashville-bred Reese Witherspoon as June Carter Cash. Phoenix got an Oscar nomination for his campy work in "Gladiator," but can he rule the screen the way Cash ruled country music? Director James Mangold's films have been hyped before ("Cop Land," "Girl, Interrupted") but he's never had much success. An equally juicy role goes to Charlize Theron in "North Country," about a landmark sexual harassment suit among miners that features Oscar favorite Frances McDormand. Beautiful women who play deglamorized blue-collar types are practically guaranteed Oscar glory.
Prospects: "North Country" for Best Picture, Phoenix for Best Actor, Witherspoon and Theron for Best Actress, McDormand for Best Supporting Actress
Jarhead (Nov. 4)
Based on Marine sniper Anthony Swofford's memoir of the 1991 Persian Gulf War, "Jarhead" has everything you look for in an Oscar film: a literary pedigree, an Oscar-winning director ("American Beauty" helmer Sam Mendes) and an acclaimed cast featuring Jamie Foxx, Peter Sarsgaard and Jake Gyllenhaal.
Prospects: Best Picture, Foxx and Sarsgaard for Best Supporting Actor, Mendes for Best Director
The New World (Nov. 9)
Reclusive director Terrence Malick ("Badlands," "The Thin Red Line") retells the story of Capt. John Smith and Pocahontas (newcomer Q'Orianka Kilcher). But Malick's films are weirdly muted, and Hollywood's been tiring of perennial almost-star Colin Farrell.
Prospects: Best Screenplay, Malick for Best Director, Kilcher for Best Actress
Breakfast on Pluto (Nov. 18)
Neil Jordan's latest will make Cillian Murphy a star, if he isn't one already on the strength of his attention-grabbing turns in "Batman Begins" and "Red Eye." Murphy is said to be spectacular as a rocking Irish drag queen in the IRA-themed drama. Ever since 1992's "The Crying Game," Jordan pretty much owns the IRA cross-dressing subgenre.
Prospects: Best Picture and Screenplay, Murphy for Best Actor, Jordan for Best Director
Rent (Nov. 23)
The Producers (Dec. 21)
Inspired by the success of "Chicago," two big Broadway musicals are coming to the screen. The tragic, AIDS-themed "Rent" is directed by "Harry Potter" helmer Chris Columbus with Rosario Dawson and Taye Diggs as stars. There's also "The Producers," which brings back stage stars Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick, and adds Will Ferrell and Uma Thurman.
Prospects: Best Picture for either, Lane for Best Actor, Dawson for Best Actress
Memoirs of A Geisha (Dec. 9)
Brokeback Mountain (Dec. 9)
A film Spielberg originally was set to direct went to Chicago's Rob Marshall instead: "Geisha," another literary adaptation, stars the indestructible "Crouching Tiger" star Ziyi Zhang. And "Crouching Tiger" director Ang Lee is back, too, with the gay-cowboy drama "Brokeback Mountain," starring Gyllenhaal and Heath Ledger in a film that has to be better than its log line.
Prospects: Best Picture, Ang for Best Director, Zhang for Best Actress
All the king's men (Dec. 16)
Another politically hot December film, this remake of the 1949 Best Picture winner about sleazy politics is sure to take a whack at the Bush White House. It stars another committed lefty, Sean Penn, along with Jude Law and Anthony Hopkins. Top screenwriter Steven Zaillian takes his first directing job.
Prospects: Best Picture, Zaillian for Best Director and nods for Oscar favorites Penn, Law and/or Hopkins
Munich (Dec. 23)
The Christmas season brings out the really big gun: Steven Spielberg, who examines the Israeli agents assigned to assassinate the terrorists who killed Israeli athletes during the 1972 summer Olympics in Munich. Originally titled "Vengeance," the script is tightly guarded. But it's written by leftist playwright Tony Kushner and is said to have found inspiration in a book slanted against the Israelis. So observers assume it's going to cast a harsh eye on the Mossad's actions. The star is "Layer Cake" breakout Daniel Craig.
Prospects: Best Picture and Screenplay, Spielberg for Best Director
----------
TWO-THIRDS of the way through the year, only two serious candidates for the Best Picture Oscar have yet emerged: "Crash" and "Cinderella Man." But the next four months are Hollywood's favorite time for prestige pictures, bringing us the return of Oscar favorites Steven Spielberg, Jamie Foxx, Cameron Crowe and Sean Penn. Here's a tip sheet for the early Oscar favorites.
Good Night. And Good Luck (Oct. 7)
George Clooney's second effort as a director tackles up-to-the-minute issues, taking on Sen. Joe McCarthy through the eyes of Edward R. Murrow (David Strathairn). Though the film is small in scale and shot in black and white, no political story gets Hollywood more excited than an attack on McCarthyism.
Prospects: Best Picture and Screenplay, Clooney for Best Director
Elizabethtown (Oct. 14)
Crowe's first film since the uneven "Vanilla Sky" is a hugely anticipated return to semi-autobiography for the writer-director of "Almost Famous," which won him a screenwriting Oscar. Orlando Bloom stars in this comedy-drama about a workaholic who buries his father but is cheered up by a stewardess (Kirsten Dunst). "Lord of the Rings" elf Bloom hasn't proven he's an actor yet, but with all the armor he's been lugging around lately, he hasn't had a chance.
Prospects: Crowe for Best Director and Best Screenplay
Northcountry (Oct. 14)
Walk the Line (Nov. 18)
This year's "Ray" wannabe is "Walk the Line," starring Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny Cash and Nashville-bred Reese Witherspoon as June Carter Cash. Phoenix got an Oscar nomination for his campy work in "Gladiator," but can he rule the screen the way Cash ruled country music? Director James Mangold's films have been hyped before ("Cop Land," "Girl, Interrupted") but he's never had much success. An equally juicy role goes to Charlize Theron in "North Country," about a landmark sexual harassment suit among miners that features Oscar favorite Frances McDormand. Beautiful women who play deglamorized blue-collar types are practically guaranteed Oscar glory.
Prospects: "North Country" for Best Picture, Phoenix for Best Actor, Witherspoon and Theron for Best Actress, McDormand for Best Supporting Actress
Jarhead (Nov. 4)
Based on Marine sniper Anthony Swofford's memoir of the 1991 Persian Gulf War, "Jarhead" has everything you look for in an Oscar film: a literary pedigree, an Oscar-winning director ("American Beauty" helmer Sam Mendes) and an acclaimed cast featuring Jamie Foxx, Peter Sarsgaard and Jake Gyllenhaal.
Prospects: Best Picture, Foxx and Sarsgaard for Best Supporting Actor, Mendes for Best Director
The New World (Nov. 9)
Reclusive director Terrence Malick ("Badlands," "The Thin Red Line") retells the story of Capt. John Smith and Pocahontas (newcomer Q'Orianka Kilcher). But Malick's films are weirdly muted, and Hollywood's been tiring of perennial almost-star Colin Farrell.
Prospects: Best Screenplay, Malick for Best Director, Kilcher for Best Actress
Breakfast on Pluto (Nov. 18)
Neil Jordan's latest will make Cillian Murphy a star, if he isn't one already on the strength of his attention-grabbing turns in "Batman Begins" and "Red Eye." Murphy is said to be spectacular as a rocking Irish drag queen in the IRA-themed drama. Ever since 1992's "The Crying Game," Jordan pretty much owns the IRA cross-dressing subgenre.
Prospects: Best Picture and Screenplay, Murphy for Best Actor, Jordan for Best Director
Rent (Nov. 23)
The Producers (Dec. 21)
Inspired by the success of "Chicago," two big Broadway musicals are coming to the screen. The tragic, AIDS-themed "Rent" is directed by "Harry Potter" helmer Chris Columbus with Rosario Dawson and Taye Diggs as stars. There's also "The Producers," which brings back stage stars Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick, and adds Will Ferrell and Uma Thurman.
Prospects: Best Picture for either, Lane for Best Actor, Dawson for Best Actress
Memoirs of A Geisha (Dec. 9)
Brokeback Mountain (Dec. 9)
A film Spielberg originally was set to direct went to Chicago's Rob Marshall instead: "Geisha," another literary adaptation, stars the indestructible "Crouching Tiger" star Ziyi Zhang. And "Crouching Tiger" director Ang Lee is back, too, with the gay-cowboy drama "Brokeback Mountain," starring Gyllenhaal and Heath Ledger in a film that has to be better than its log line.
Prospects: Best Picture, Ang for Best Director, Zhang for Best Actress
All the king's men (Dec. 16)
Another politically hot December film, this remake of the 1949 Best Picture winner about sleazy politics is sure to take a whack at the Bush White House. It stars another committed lefty, Sean Penn, along with Jude Law and Anthony Hopkins. Top screenwriter Steven Zaillian takes his first directing job.
Prospects: Best Picture, Zaillian for Best Director and nods for Oscar favorites Penn, Law and/or Hopkins
Munich (Dec. 23)
The Christmas season brings out the really big gun: Steven Spielberg, who examines the Israeli agents assigned to assassinate the terrorists who killed Israeli athletes during the 1972 summer Olympics in Munich. Originally titled "Vengeance," the script is tightly guarded. But it's written by leftist playwright Tony Kushner and is said to have found inspiration in a book slanted against the Israelis. So observers assume it's going to cast a harsh eye on the Mossad's actions. The star is "Layer Cake" breakout Daniel Craig.
Prospects: Best Picture and Screenplay, Spielberg for Best Director
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Originally Posted by Doctor Gonzo
Murphy is said to be spectacular as a rocking Irish drag queen in the IRA-themed drama. Ever since 1992's "The Crying Game," Jordan pretty much owns the IRA cross-dressing subgenre.
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Colleen Atwood is a lock for Costume Design for Memoirs of a Geisha.
#8
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I don't like Phoenix's chances for WALK THE LINE. I do like Bill Murray's chances for BROKEN FLOWERS - especially since a lot of Oscar voters felt he should have gotten the award for LOST IN TRANSLATION. I think CINDERELLA MAN will be shut out in the major categories...other than Crowe's performance, it's a pretty cliched movie...and Crowe's already got an Oscar and been nominated so many times, he'll probably be passed over for this one - which wasn't a very demanding role (acting wise, not physically) for him.
#11
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Originally Posted by PopcornTreeCt
Wow, those movies that have yet to come out don't even sound all that great.
#13
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Originally Posted by PopcornTreeCt
I think Cinderella Man has a lock on a bunch of major categories. The movie is practically an Oscar voter's wet dream.
-JP
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I love Cameron Crowe movies including Vanilla Sky. My favorite is Almost Famous, and I have high hopes for Elizabethtown. I like the trailer a lot, here's hoping he delivers.
I'm also looking forward to All the King's Men, a fantasic cast in that one, Munich, the name Spielberg is all I need to get me excited.
I hope Russell Crowe and Bill Murray are not forgotten this winter either, they gave two great performances in two of the best movies of the year.
I'm also looking forward to All the King's Men, a fantasic cast in that one, Munich, the name Spielberg is all I need to get me excited.
I hope Russell Crowe and Bill Murray are not forgotten this winter either, they gave two great performances in two of the best movies of the year.
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I think Phoenix will have a good shot because Cash is such an icon, one of those guys who only becomes a larger legend as the years pass. I'm hoping he or Crowe take home best actor- I thought Crowe did a great job in Cinderella Man. I don't think ANY winner's role this year will be one for the ages in any case.
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best actor -
phillip seymour hoffman in capote
heth ledger in brokeback mountain
joaquin pheonix in walk the line
david starthairn in good night, and good luck.
bill murray in broken flowers
my guess: phillip seymour hoffman or heth ledger
phillip seymour hoffman in capote
heth ledger in brokeback mountain
joaquin pheonix in walk the line
david starthairn in good night, and good luck.
bill murray in broken flowers
my guess: phillip seymour hoffman or heth ledger
Last edited by ChrisKnudsen; 10-25-05 at 03:04 AM.
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I'll predict now - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN will win Best Picture.
It's not my favourite movie (not even top ten), but I think this film will connect to the voters in a big way. Heck, hardened Toronto Film Fest critics were crying - I expect the normal audience (especially female) to have even less resistance.
It's not my favourite movie (not even top ten), but I think this film will connect to the voters in a big way. Heck, hardened Toronto Film Fest critics were crying - I expect the normal audience (especially female) to have even less resistance.
#25
After seeing "Jarhead" and "Capote" this weekend, I am adding them to "Crash" as 3 films I will be rooting for this year's Oscar season. I thought Phillip Seymour Hoffman was terrific as Truman Capote. He seems to be the front runner in the Best Actor race right now. I hope he wins, definitely one of my favorite actors. I believe this will be his first Oscar nomination. "Capote" did well this weekend, earning another $1 million on only 183 screens. I saw it yesterday around 2 and the theater was 3/4 full.
I'll be seeing "Good Night, and Good Luck" soon. I think that could get some nominations as well.
Of course, you have to include Spielberg's "Munich", which could do alot of damage. Too bad "All the King's Men" got pushed back until next April.
I'll be seeing "Good Night, and Good Luck" soon. I think that could get some nominations as well.
Of course, you have to include Spielberg's "Munich", which could do alot of damage. Too bad "All the King's Men" got pushed back until next April.
Last edited by Mr. Cinema; 11-06-05 at 05:35 PM.