latinbrando

Could "War of the Worlds" be the last blockbuster for the summer of 2005,
until the Xmas films start coming? What's going on with the film industry?

Elldubtoo

Don't forget Serenity in late September. Biggest movie ever!

Jason

um, Fantastic Four?

fitprod

In Fox's & Marvel's minds, yes... The general public and most and the rest of Hollywood, no.

fitprod

Terrell

Serenity is released in September, hence not a summer film. It's certainly not a blockbuster film. Might be a good one, but not a blockbuster.

PopcornTreeCt

Is Blockbuster determined by whether or not the film makes $100 mill? Then yes, I would say it's the last summer movie to do that. Although I'm sure Harry Potter will make well over that.

Terrell

A film would have to do a lot more than 100 million dollars to be considered a blockbuster in today's environment. I'd say over 200 million. Though I'm not sure you can classify WOTW a blockbuster yet.

Elldubtoo

What are you talking about? Serenity=biggest blockbuster ever! And Joss Whedon=God!

jaeufraser

Well I think 100 million is enough to be considered a big hit. 150 million might be the barrier for true blockbuster. But, we can't be harsh because of no more 200 million dollar hit. I mean, if the standard for "blockbuster" is 200 million dollars, then one could've said the exact same thing last year and been correct. After all, after Spiderman 2, no film crossed 200 million dollars during the summer season. Of course, I Robot, Village, Colaterral, and Bourne Supremacy All cracked 100 million, and Bourne got past 150.

Now this summer I don't see being stronger, of course. War won't make as much as Spidey 2. And our upcoming slate won't make as much...but...

There's still potential. It's not like no film has any chance to make money. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory has the definite potential to make over 100 million (and quite frankly...it could also turn into a blockbuster, but I have no idea if that will really happen). That's I think the biggest hope. Then you've got The Island, Fantastic 4, Stealth. I doubt all three will make it to 100 million plus, but it wouldn't surprise me to see two of them do it and perhaps some other wildcard movie also. I think Stealth looks like a complete dog so I have a hard time seeing that really being a hit, but who knows, Cohen has had his successes and Foxx is big. Something like Domino, Brothers Grimm, some random horror movie might have the chance to break out in August also.

So yes...this summer is weaker...but it's not all lost. And on the flip side...and somewhat amusing to me...this summer has given me Batman Begins, Episode 3, and War of the Worlds, a trio of blockbsuters I have enjoyed immensely and which I think are superior to many of the other blockbuster films of recent years. So, money wise they may be hurting, but quality wise I think they're doing pretty decent.

And War of the Worlds is definately a blockbuster. It made 23 million on Friday and will clear 110-120 million by monday night. There's basically no chance in hell it won't make 200 million, and 250-300 is definatley in sight for that movie. Overseas is bound to be more. It's pretty safe to say WoTW is a blockbuster.

FinkPish

I'd rather see quality films that don't necessarily make lots of money instead of big "tentpole" summer pics that the studios created by committee.

Jackskeleton

Well what the hell kind of thinking is this? It's a summer movie, it has a huge budget and has a lot of summer buzz as one of those films folks will watch. Perhaps because you may not be hyped to see it doesn't mean it's not a Summer movie of 2005.

It's still a summer "blockbuster" size film.


Actually, if anything, considering DVD eating into theatre run take ins. A summer block buster status bar should be lowered because box office take ins overall are on a decline.

Dr. DVD

I agree. It doesn't take long for a movie to reach $100 million, but it seldom does more than $50 million beyond that nowadays. Kind of bad for theatre runs when a summer blockbuster typically seems to cost about $100 million to make.

fitprod

Buzz of a film that folks will watch? Funny, are we counting aint it cool news as a source? I wouldn't. By definition a Blockbuster is a succesful movie or novel. This film will not be a blockbuster, and here's why...

1. Comic book fans have powered successes like Spiderman, X-Men and Batman Begins; they've sunk films such as The Punisher, Electra and Catwoman. - The vibe within this community is that this might be better than the Roger Corman film from the '80's, or slightly better than Catwoman.

2. When a studio holds back critics from screening a film, it is a bad sign. The only thing worse is being moved to February...

3. Fantasic Four will remind too many people of The Incredibles. Admitedly, The Incredibles took tons of thier inspiration from these charaters, but it arrived first, and with a much stonger pedigree.

fitprod

mikeporter

The only other summer movie I'm going to see is The Island, I think it has a shot at $100 million.

The Bus

Thanks for making me sad. Summer is over.

As it usually us in July.

jaeufraser

Well when have movies ever commonly made more then 150 million dollars? 10 years only two films even made that much. In 1998 our highest grossing film barely cracked 200 million. You're talking like lots of movies were making north of 150 million all the time. There will be what, probably 8 or so 150 million plus grossing films this year.

The market has expanded to DVD, the international market has grown...I think that's why budgets have grown so much. Saying budgets are 100 million, and grosses are only around there seems very shortsighted. Tehy don't greenlight those budgets based on doemstic grosses. Sure, we have a down time in the box office right now but I think some are seeing more doom and gloom then is really there.

Jackskeleton

^^ A lot of that doom and gloom is how Matthew described it. Mainly from those DOMESTIC analyzers who want to call something a failure because it didn't take in that much here in the states when in reality the film makes a lot of bank over seas and ingeneral makes a big profit in the long run.

And look how that did. I'm sure people who want more of that "feel" of heros will like to watch F4. Add in those kids who just general like super heros and the mass amount of marketing pushed into F4.

You have to be shitting me. Summer movies generally don't have that bad of an effect when it comes to poor reviews. Your general joe six pack doesn't even bother with reviews anyways. It's summer, kids don't have time to read reviews to go see something that may look cool.

You also don't need to sign your post. We can see who wrote it over to the left and it's an assumption that no one else is using your account.

As for success. Now a days a Film's success is much lower to achieve. All it takes is some decent box office take to cover in the films budget domesticlly and it will be a hit. Why? International and DVD sales make it a huge success.

The standard summer "blockbuster" is dead. DVD sales, lower theatre take ins and other factors have killed that sort of market and spread it out to different formats.

So if a film is a blockbuster because of success, just about every film is a blockbuster. They make their money and then some back in international and dvd sales. The thread is asking about "Summer movies". Guess what, F4 is a summer movie. It also has the amount of marketing to make it seem like a big "summer" movie to me.

Dr. DVD

I actually think that F4 might surprise people. It might not be totally faithful to the comic, but it seems to have a lighthearted mood and fun feeling to it, and given the dark and serious nature of many of the movies this summer, it might be a welcome change.

I will keep my expectations modest and not nit-pick this one, instead I will go in with a Charlie's Angels mindset and hope it delivers on that level.

jaeufraser

Yes, it is a bad sign. But it's a bad sign when they do not screen it for critics so as to prevent reviews from being released, meaning critics have to pay to see it themselves, and reviews probably won't be released or won't be seen until monday.

This is not happening with Fantastic Four. Any other sort of screening schedule in general has little to do with quality. Sometimes they might do prerelease screenings to build buzz, like Serenity, but save for not screening for critics, which is not something F4 is doing, it's not a sign of anything.

F4 isn't going to be a towering blockbsuter. I doubt it'll make 250 million dollars. But I think it's highly doubtful it'll be Catwoman either.

clemente

Spider-man, X-Men, and Batman Begins were powered by the average movie goer. You can't reach $100 on purely the comic book fan, the numbers aren't there.

Sin City, a movie drooled on by the comic community (though it did have a lot of critical support) topped out shy of $75 mil.
Hellboy, a movie also generally adored by the comic community topped out shy of $60 million.

And they both had a good sized ad push, so some of that is the casual fan.

Spider-man made over $400 million, clearly someone had to fill in the extra $340 million....the casual fan. The Internet/comic community may not be behind FF, but I'm getting the idea that the casual fan is.

Terrell

Depends on the budget.

I think blockbuster status has to be over 200 million, and perhaps well over it. Think about it. We're not talking a hit here. We're talking blockbuster. So many films nowadays make 200 million dollars, and even more make 150 million. With ticket prices what they are and so many films hitting the 200 million barrier, it has to at least be 200 million.

scott shelton

But often a smart business move.





I'm gonna have to assume that was meant for me.

scott shelton

Well, a lot of yahoos in the media have taken it upon themselves to report on something they know nothing about, for starters.

jaeufraser

Can we really determine this based on domestic take alone? Troy made 133 million in the US. The Mummy Returns made 202. By all means, MR is the blockbuster, Troy the disapointment. But Troy made 500 million worldwide, Mummy Returns 418 million. Which is the blockbuster then? Or are both? Meet the Fockers made 280 million US...but about the same as Troy worldwide.

Point being, we have to look at the big picture to determine real blockbusters. Limitnig ourselves to domestic take really seems to be missing the big picture. They surely don't greenlight those mega budgets based upon domestic alone.