Class316

http://www.cnn.com/2005/SHOWBIZ/Movi....ap/index.html

Superboy

It won't be long before it crosses the $500 million mark. Remember Titanic's reign?

Mr. Cinema

It ain't making $500 million. More like around $400. And "Titanic" didn't open huge either. It had major legs. 15 straight weeks with at least $25 million. No movie is going to break its US box office record of $600 million.

Jackskeleton

yup. While it's great it held soild this weekend, With the summer season what it is, no way will it stay up there for long. Batman should handle it. Titanic was a beast all its own.

Terrell

I'm thinking my 375 million dollar prediction is pretty solid. After 8 days, I thought this would easily beat TPM. But I don't think it will. The summer is extremely crowed, even if many of the films are medicore films that won't do much box office. I think that if only 1 new film had opened this past week, Star Wars would have done even better than it did, somewhere in the neighborhood of 85 million. But two new films, both of which appealed to some of Star Wars target market, knocked it down some.

Episode III will easily beat AOTC. But it will probably fall a little short of 400 million. On it's way though, it will in all likelihood beat the record for fastest to 300 million, and beat it handily.

Though give credit to both Madagascar and Longest Yard, two films that didn't receive good reviews, they did end up with a pretty good chunk of change. I thought both films looked dreadful, especially Longest Yard.

JohnDoeUSA

I predicted on 5/22/05 a total of 601 million in 7 weeks, but what I meant was 601 million in 8 weeks! I had two week 5's in my prediction. Anyway I am sticking with it even though if it falls short it still will have a great run. I be very surpised if it does not top 500 million!

http://www.dvdtalk.com/forum/showthr...=423489&page=3

Go Baby Go

Artman

Yep. I'd say 400 (ish). If it's at 280 by the end of the wk (thurs), with wkly totals of 40, 30, 20, 12, 8, 5, 3, 2, that'd put it at 400.

With adjusted grosses this puts the film closer to AOTC than TPM in terms of tickets sold, which is how I'm rating movie box-office from now on. These new records being set every yr are ridiculous imo...

Michael Corvin

I'm not so sure. Usually I would agree with you but my mind is drawing a blank as to what the summer blockbusters are supposed to be this year other than Batman and Fantastic 4.

I think it may have legs on that alone. Lack of solid competition.

Artman

June is really the big month, with Batman and War of the Worlds being the big boys. There are others that will be in the low-mid 100's but yeah there doesn't seem to be a ton of heavyweights this summer.

Terrell

Yeah, Art is right. War of the Worlds and Batman are likely big hits. Probably not as big as ROTS, but you can never tell. I don't think Batman Begins makes 300 million. I believe War of the Worlds will be the bigger hit of the two films. But both will make quite a bit of coin.

Art is right about one other thing. Ticket prices will continue to get more expensive, and films that have no business beating box office records, will do so. Nowadays, records are made to be broken. I figure Titanic will go down within 5 -7 years, just on the rising costs of tickets.

Ketamine

I actually am guessing around $450 million. Looking at the numbers for the last week, it is putting daily numbers very similar to TPM (Boxofficemojo side by side comparison). ROTS had a much bigger opening which has put it about $50 million ahead of TPM comparing day for day totals. Since TPM ended with around $430 million, I'm thinking it will make $450 million. Maybe the higher early numbers will make ROTS fall faster and there are some big movies in the next few weeks so I guess we will see.

Josh H

Looking like around $400 million to me.

Too much coming out this summer. I saw TPM 5 times, and I've yet to see this a second time even though I like it 10 times more.

I'll probably catch it once or twice more over the summer, but there's quite a few other movies I want to see.

chess

What he said.

I saw it once at the theater (a few more times elsewhere) and plan to see it again in a few weeks when a friend comes out. I think I watched TPM at least 3-4 times in the theater. Only twice for AOTC, but I really didn't like it much.

Ketamine

Did we know that TPM would be on DVD when it came out? If not, then that obviously may have caused a few people to go to the theater multiple times instead of waiting for the DVD as I am sure so people are for ROTS.

Josh H

Nope had no idea on the DVD (I actually bought the wide screen VHS of TPM), and that did factor in some for me seeing it so many times.

Main thing was just that it was the first SW in 16 years.

Michael Corvin

Oh yeah. Forgot about War of the Worlds. Both of those will be big. I don't think the same of Fantastic Four. What are all these other BIG movies everyone is referring to? Am I missing something, or is this summer just lacking?

bboisvert

I just assumed everyone was talking about Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo.

BassDude

FWIW - alot of my coworkers and even a couple relatives have yet to see the film. They say they are "waiting for the lines to die down."

If this is more common, then we may see ROTS continue to "win" the weeks for a little while longer.

Another possible summer contender (pun intended) ... Cinderella Man?

Terrell

But I believe it's numbers will decline at a steeper rate than TPM.

Josh H

This is what will be interesting to see.

TPM had the buzz of being the first SW is 16 years, but had much worse word of mouth and critical reviews.

ROTS has the buzz of being the final SW film and is getting mostly positive word of mouth and critical reviews.

Thus logically it should have stronger legs, but things rarely work logically in terms of box office earnings with great movies tanking and crappy ones making a killing regularly.

mndtrp

I know of many that are saying the exact same thing.

Cameron

it seems that most people who want to wait for crowds to die down usually end up waiting for it to hit the rental shop...or by the time they get to the theater batman just opened and they decide to hit that crowded theater instead...

Mr. Cinema

Phantom Menace only had Austin Powers 2 as real competition. Attack of the Clones had Spider-Man to deal with.

Cusm

I saw it Midnight opening night(morning) with friends. The wife has not seen it yet, so we will get a babysitter this weekend and go see it probably Sunday. I will also see it a few more times on my own, and I do not give a flip whatelse is at the theater when we get there, I go to the movies (which is extremely rare) to see a specific movie, not to see what is playing.