Groucho

Here is the leaderboard for the DVDTalk HSX League as of 7/2. Interested in joining? Check the next post down for rules and other information.

The Best (Top 10 Players by Net Worth)

Rank	HSX Username	Net Worth	Week to Date	Last Week's Rank
1	DVDTalk_JasonF	H$14,577,452.59	13.04%	1
2	Dvdtalk_gcribbs	H$11,423,201.66	28.36%	5
3	DVDTalk_Movieking	H$9,282,269.99	7.57%	4
4	DVDTalk_mrn	H$9,210,179.83	2.00%	3
5	DVDTALK_Jackskeleton	H$9,197,755.23	5.10%	2
6	DVDTalk_rushmore223	H$7,654,497.55	8.61%	6
7	DVDTalk_BA	H$7,384,970.26	15.08%	-
8	DVDTalk_angusscrimm	H$6,805,968.06	22.27%	-
9	devilshalo	H$6,779,434.74	12.46%	8
10	DVDTalk_TomOpus	H$6,651,462.81	0.30%	7

The Rest (by Net Worth)

Rank	HSX Username	Net Worth	Week to Date	Last Week's Rank
11	DVDTalk_luckymepooh	H$6,271,056.13	6.20%	-
12	dvd_talk_tywebb1976	H$5,829,857.81	0.81%	-
13	DVDTALK_mrglass	H$5,685,617.85	9.93%	-
14	DVDTalk_cruzness	H$5,677,660.58	4.93%	-
15	DVDTalk_Corvin	H$5,542,171.50	-2.13%	10
16	DVDtalk_glassdragon	H$5,253,540.40	7.69%	-
17	DVDTalk_Groucho2	H$5,162,725.99	-9.55%	9
18	DVDTalk_antennaball	H$4,664,587.89	-8.60%	-
19	DVDTalk_mano365	H$4,402,175.56	13.85%	-
20	dvdtalk_swh2	H$4,260,952.75	-4.84%	-
21	DVDTalk_DRG	H$4,216,757.39	4.94%	-
22	DVDTalk_solipsta	H$4,209,287.30	5.92%	-
23	DVDTalk_genapp	H$4,023,201.73	8.56%	-
24	DVDTalk_Jonny2k1	H$3,726,579.43	18.53%	-
25	dvdtalk_swh	H$3,608,989.13	-9.70%	-
26	DVDTalk_j123vt_99	H$3,423,546.80	3.56%	-
27	Dvdtalk_filmerp	H$3,404,467.93	19.37%	-
28	DVDTalk_dimitrios3	H$3,400,300.02	7.72%	-
29	DVDTalk_Suprmallet	H$3,237,869.10	2.18%	-
30	DVDTalk_vonner	H$3,037,749.84	16.08%	-
31	DVDTalk_namja	H$2,986,953.91	5.31%	-
32	DVDTalk_RyoHazuki	H$2,920,509.43	-0.74%	-
33	DVDTalk_Mordred	H$2,891,797.33	11.62%	-
34	DVDTalk_MFRONE	H$2,859,895.27	2.59%	-
35	DVDTalk_flashburn	H$2,823,107.08	1.84%	-
36	DVDTalk_Mookyman	H$2,821,191.14	5.94%	-
37	DVDTalk_johnglass	H$2,818,164.31	2.06%	-
38	DVDTalk_ivelostr2	H$2,809,513.21	7.32%	-
39	DVDTalk_jnielsen	H$2,802,127.31	4.19%	-
40	DVDTalk_Mittman	H$2,793,920.65	4.72%	-
41	DVDTalk_Trigger	H$2,770,076.44	5.03%	-
42	DVDTalk_shimmoril	H$2,689,450.21	2.15%	-
43	DVDTalk_vism	H$2,645,030.64	2.69%	-
44	DVDTalk_kninestile	H$2,560,252.89	-5.29%	-
45	DVDTalk_Vryce	H$2,540,962.36	5.42%	-
46	DVDTalk_Jocko6577	H$2,536,023.39	16.16%	-
47	DVDTalk_dtcarson	H$2,394,790.63	18.85%	-
48	DVDTalk_RoboDad	H$2,357,070.09	0.21%	-
49	DVDTalk_DodgingCars	H$2,324,799.26	1.99%	-
50	DVDTalk_FredCDobbs	H$2,305,734.13	0.24%	-
51	DVDTalk_criptik28	H$2,298,292.70	11.65%	-
52	jdpatri	H$2,254,251.88	-2.24%	-
53	DVDTalk_Sherbz	H$2,234,456.44	1.00%	-
54	DVDTalk_AlienRedrum	H$2,227,750.92	3.32%	-
55	JDubya	H$2,221,886.27	0.02%	-
56	DVDTalk_Venom	H$2,204,692.09	-0.30%	-
57	DVDTalk_DVD_Smurf	H$2,155,068.95	5.82%	-
58	DVDTalk_Anjanettea	H$2,137,156.07	0.02%	-
59	DVDTalk_outcastja	H$2,082,907.25	-1.35%	-
60	dvdtalk_towbinaj	H$2,060,606.91	3.03%	NEW
61	DVDTalk_fnordboy	H$2,057,418.98	3.20%	-
62	DVDTalk_drjay	H$2,044,541.18	0.60%	-
63	Dvdtalk_KumarJ	H$2,041,273.34	0.02%	-
64	DVDTalk_karnblack	H$2,032,744.28	0.06%	-
65	DVDTalk_TripleS	H$2,026,775.15	1.34%	NEW
66	DVDTALK_majorjoe23	H$2,023,881.80	0.03%	-
67	DVDTalk_BRIAN_1972	H$2,004,800.22	0.02%	-
68	matome	H$2,004,800.22	0.02%	-
69	DVDTalk_JacksSmirk	H$2,004,745.29	0.02%	-
70	DVDTalk_Heat	H$1,996,271.33	-0.19%	NEW
71	benedetto	H$1,989,147.54	-0.54%	NEW
72	DVDTalk_TheDude	H$1,959,026.30	0.02%	-
73	DVDTalk_Bizastard	H$1,856,759.80	-0.15%	-
74	DVDTalk_Giles	H$1,817,194.67	0.28%	-
75	DVDTalk_TeeSeeJay	H$1,737,287.40	1.53%	-
76	BadlyDrawnBoy	H$1,565,205.36	-2.28%	-

This Week's Top 10 Performers*

HSX Username	Week to Date
Dvdtalk_gcribbs	28.36%
DVDTalk_angusscrimm	22.27%
Dvdtalk_filmerp	19.37%
DVDTalk_dtcarson	18.85%
DVDTalk_Jonny2k1	18.53%
DVDTalk_Jocko6577	16.16%
DVDTalk_vonner	16.08%
DVDTalk_BA	15.08%
DVDTalk_mano365	13.85%
DVDTalk_JasonF	13.04%

*Based on Week-to-Date Percentage: portfolio growth since Sunday

Groucho

What is the Hollywood Stock Exchange?

From the website: “Buy shares of your favorite actors and their new movies. Watch their values rise or fall based on their success. Prices soar with a blockbuster opening at the box office and plummet with a bomb no one went to see.” For those who have never played, the game is as a complicated or as easy as you want to make it (much like the real stock market).

Now, I know several of you already have HSX accounts. To keep things fair, in order to participate in the league you’ll need to start up a new account. Here’s what you need to do to join the league:

1. Go to www.hsx.com and start up a new account.

2. You can use any username you want, although if everybody used the format “DVDTalk_[DVDTalk Username]” it would make things easier to track. For example, if my DVDTalk username was "Stockbroker" my account for the league will be DVDTalk_Stockbroker.

When signing up, put down BadlyDrawnBoy in the "Did a friend refer you?" column. Feel free to take advantage of any of the special offers and freebies offered at this time as well.

3. After you sign up, go to “Account Information” and set your “Screen Name” to be exactly the same as your screen name here at DVDTalk. This will help avoid confusion.

4. Come back here and post your HSX user name. You need to have a new account, or I won’t add you to the league.

5. Entry into the league is always open...we welcome newcomers!

Remember, new players: add this week's "Bottom Feeder" (BadlyDrawnBoy) as your referral when signing up!

Groucho

Some notes:

Congrats to gcribbs, angusscrimm, and filmerp for winning this week's Gmail Giveaway[/b]! Please email me with your email addy and I will give you each an invite. If you already have a Gmail account, or don't want the invite, please let me know and I'll award the invite to the next player on the WTD leaderboard.

I've now automated the process for retrieving league data, which means I can now report net worth and ranking on everybody. That's why the tables look a bit different. Also, new players are now marked as NEW in the "Last Week's Ranking" column.

JasonF

Thanks as always for the rankings & your work organizing this. Let me throw out a few suggestions that you can take or reject at your preference. First, now that everyone is ranked, it may make sense to merge "The Best" and "The Rest" into a single list. Second, starting next week, will you have everyone's "Last Week" rank and not just the Top 10's? I think that would be nice if you can pull that info in without too much work. Finally, and also if it's not to much trouble, it might be fun to see a "change in rank" column (so, for example, gcribbs would have "up 4" in that column and Jackskeleton would have "down 3").

Groucho

Suggestions are always welcome...

It certainly would be easier for me to put everybody in one ranking. I just thought the Top 10 people would enjoy being split off from the riff-raff. But if people prefer to see everything in one listing, that's fine too.

Adding the "Last Week" ranking to everybody is planned to begin happening next week. I don't have last week's data, which is why there are so many "-" up there.

The "change in rank" column would be easy to implement, so I'll go ahead and put that up next week as well.

B.A.

Everyone and their mothers are dumping FH911. I am going to be stubborn and ride it out since I noticed it soooooo late.

Jackskeleton

ha, I haven't moved from my worth for a good week now.

Heat

I posted this in the Week 11 thread, but thought I'd add it here since that will die away.

What determines a movie star's price, other than death (as in the case of Marlon Brando)? I picked up ~ H$700,000 worth of Nicole Kidman at H$38.30 / share, she still at H$38.30. What causes their values to go up or down?

By the way, my portfolio is up 1.25% as of today, even with one third of it tied up in Nicole Kidman. I’ve been toying around with penny movie stocks and have hit a few (remember, I just started a couple of days ago):

Aurora Boreallis (AUROA), bought 50,000 at H$0.59, it’s up to H$0.72 (22% increase)
Bad Education (BADED), bought 50,000 at H$1.75, it’s up to H$2.01 (14% increase)
Beach Music (BCUMU), bought 50,000 at H$0.51, it’s up to H$0.64 (25% increase)
Parasyte (PYSRT), bought 50,000 at H$0.36, it’s up to H$0.49 (36% increase)

Only one has gone down more than a penny or two:
Rock Star (Buena Vista) (RSTAR), bought 50,000 at H$1.01, it’s down to H$0.88 (12% decrease)

JasonF

I wrote up in answer in the week 11 thread (I think I was replying while you were in the process of moving it over here), so check there. What I forgot to say, though, is that apart from adjusts (which occur the day after a movie delists), bonds move according to market forces. For stars with upcoming adjusts, typically they move toward their adjust price in general, though they may move away from their adjust price over the short term as people sell/cover to free up cash they want to invest elsewhere. If there's no upcoming adjusts, it's not really predictable -- big ports may buy into bonds with far off adjusts (IMCDI is going to adjust up by about $70, but he's not going to do it for a long while, so he only makes sense for ports with hundreds of millions of dollars); otherwise, a lot of the movement is due to people who trade the bonds just because they like the actors, and not because they understand how bonds work (about once a week, someone will post a "tip" on the HSX boards along the lines of "Tom Cruise is a great actor and he's got some good movies coming! His bond will skyrocket!" without regard to what his current TAG is or what will be replacing what in his TAG).

Heat

OK, I'm understanding how it works now. I'll hold on to Nicole Kidman, I can live with a DROI of 0.84%.

By the way, I just wanted to mention this:

Nicole Kidman is a great actress and she's got some good movies coming! Her bond will skyrocket!

kninestile

Don't let Tom here you say that.

gcribbs

Thanks for the tip


I am shorting her as we speak

Groucho thanks for the gmail offer

Please offer my gmail account to the next person.

I already have one and I have no need to be greedy.... off of HSX that is

Groucho

That would be dtcarson. Email me if you want the invite.

Angus Scrimm

my email is screwy so I'll give you my email address here-

[email protected]

Groucho

Invite has been sent, Angus. You can pull your email from that post if you want. Let me know if there are problems.

JasonF

Here's my Friday number Analysis, straight from hsj.org

It's Saturday morning and time for another Friday Numbers Estimate. This week, we've only got one adjust, but it's a doozy!

The one adjust, of course, is Spider-Man 2 -- arguably the most anticipated movie of the year. Because this is a 3-day weekend, none of the usual rules of thumb apply. In the past five years, we've seen 3-day weekend internal multipliers as low as 3.5 (The Day After Tomorrow, Memorial Day 2004) and as high as 4.33 (Shanghai Noon, Memorial Day 2000). In between, you've got The Wild, Wild West (3.8, Independence Day 1999), Pearl Harbor (4.07, Memorial Day 2001), Mission Impossible 2 (4.2, Memorial Day 2000), and Bruce Almighty (4.26, Memorial Day 2003). Based on these, we've run internal multipliers on Spider-Man 2 ranging from 3.5 to 4.5:

Spider-Man 2 Wednesday numbers: 40.4 Thursday numbers: 23.8
Friday numbers: $31.76
Internal Multiplier: 3.5 Weekend Estimate: $111.16
STOCK Halt: $352.21 Adjust: $342.10 Change: ($10.11)
CALL Strike: $130.00 Halt: $9.67 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($9.67)
PUT Strike: $130.00 Halt: $1.87 Delist: $18.84 Change: $16.97

Internal Multiplier: 3.7 Weekend Estimate: $117.51
STOCK Halt: $352.21 Adjust: $357.98 Change: $5.77
CALL Strike: $130.00 Halt: $9.67 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($9.67)
PUT Strike: $130.00 Halt: $1.87 Delist: $12.49 Change: $10.62

Internal Multiplier: 3.9 Weekend Estimate: $123.86
STOCK Halt: $352.21 Adjust: $373.86 Change: $21.65
CALL Strike: $130.00 Halt: $9.67 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($9.67)
PUT Strike: $130.00 Halt: $1.87 Delist: $6.14 Change: $4.27

Internal Multiplier: 4.1 Weekend Estimate: $130.22
STOCK Halt: $352.21 Adjust: $389.74 Change: $37.53
CALL Strike: $130.00 Halt: $9.67 Delist: $0.22 Change: ($9.45)
PUT Strike: $130.00 Halt: $1.87 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.87)

Internal Multiplier: 4.3 Weekend Estimate: $136.57
STOCK Halt: $352.21 Adjust: $405.62 Change: $53.41
CALL Strike: $130.00 Halt: $9.67 Delist: $6.57 Change: ($3.10)
PUT Strike: $130.00 Halt: $1.87 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.87)

Internal Multiplier: 4.5 Weekend Estimate: $142.92
STOCK Halt: $352.21 Adjust: $421.50 Change: $69.29
CALL Strike: $130.00 Halt: $9.67 Delist: $12.92 Change: $3.25
PUT Strike: $130.00 Halt: $1.87 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.87)


And there you have it. Check the Box Office sites on Monday to find out how things really went!

devilshalo

Been a pretty quiet day of trading. No really big swings since yesterday.

TomOpus

Yeah, not much going on... a few small gains with the BW's but that's about it for me.

gcribbs

I am figuring based on the numbers thru friday that Spid2 will adjust down a bit. I am surprised however it looks like it is not generating the numbers I figured it would.

Glad I sold my call and went on to other stocks.

A slow day so far. I would be shocked to get even a 200k increase.

a bit of venting

I have moved in and out of a few stocks today only to have them move after I got out.

I am ready to go to bed so I can start fresh tomorrow

gcribbs

It looks like the 3.5 multiplier for Spid2 might be the most accurate. It seems that it will either adjust down a bit or break even so after commissions it will be a loss.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/c...4-07-03&p=.htm

32.81 million for Saturday.

Triple S

What do bonds and delists happen? 12am EST on Tuesday?

gcribbs

The calendar will give you a rough idea of times. They do sometimes happen a bit after those times.


What a horrible weekend. I guess I should be glad I was up and not down from this weekend.

I have a few days off starting on tuesday so I am going to try and get over $15 million in the next 10 days.

Triple S

Found it. Halts at 6pm, Adjust at 7pm

Now, when the Bonds are ready to adjust, anything that you calculate to be worth more than 4% RoI (1 for dumping what you have, 1 for getting the bonds, one for dumping the bonds, and 1 to make it worthwhile) you should get right before it is halted?

gcribbs

I bought mine during the no commission period since this reduces the costs and increases the profits.

I then calculate how many points it will change and subtract the cost to sell versus what i expect to earn and as long as I make money I will go for it.

I rarely buy too many since I do not want to tie up too much money. So from 1-4 bonds max unless the payouts are huge.

I figure having the money free increases my chances to make some money on a new moving stock.

Mano

Boy and I was doing so well for a while there, Spidey's adjust is going to drop me down a bit .