pezboy

Not only how much will it make opening weekend, but how much will it gross overall? Thoughts?

Usatoday.com has a story about MM which alludes to Steven Spielberg stating 'F911' could make $100 million! Dunno about that, but it'll certainly make more than 'Bowling for Columbine'. Hell, it'll make more than "Around the World in 80 Days"

I say it'll top out around $50 mil. Opening--$5-10 million. (Quite a range, I know)

Snowlarbear

i don't see too many people watching it more than once, i'd agree with your predictions, though more on the 10 million side.

Barings

I think you're underestimating the potential of this film. At a minimum, I think it will make $15 million on opening weekend and will more likely do $20 to 25 million if they can get into enough theatres. Whether or not it will have legs to break the $100 million mark is another issue.

I know that this may already be a dangerous topic, and bringing religion into the subject matter may not be wise. I severely underestimated the appeal of Passion of the Christ and it completely exceeded any estimates I had for its opening and overall gross.

I think this movie has the same appeal, except at the oppositive end of the political spectrum. As for me, I didn't see Passion (relying on the review of Stan from South Park), but I really want to see this. At the same time, I can't see myself spending money to see a documentary in a theatre.

I will probably wait to rent the DVD along with Supersize Me. Moore has pretty much guaranteed a DVD release before the election from what I understand. This seems to pretty much guarantee that it will be out of the theatres by October since a double-dip (theatre sales and DVD sales) won't bear any real fruit.

Rivero

Not sure how much it'll make but it'll quickly become the highest-grossing documentary ever.

harosa

True, it'll definetly keep Moore in the business.

Bird Jenkins

I agree with Barings that you guys are underestimating the box office potential here.

Every time I turn on Fox News they're talking about it, unwittingly giving it millions of dollars in free publicity. Just like THE PASSION, people are going to see this just to see what all the fuss is about. The Left will go to cheer and the Right will go to jeer. It's a symbiotic relationship.

I'm guessing it'll pull in at least $20 million opening week and I dare say it will go on to become the highest grossing doc of all time. It wouldn't surprise me at all if it breaks the $100 million barrier.

mookyman

At this point, it simply doesn't have enough screens to do more than a $10-15 million opening. This is a pretty unprecedented release pattern for a documentary, so I think it's hard to say what it will gross. That said, I'm rooting for it.

Groucho

Certainly it will smash all box office records in terms of documentaries, but in terms of overall grosses it won't be making Passion or Shrek 2 numbers. How much? Hard to say since it's not a huge release and will make it's money over time.

Here is the current box office chart for documentaries:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/...ocumentary.htm

Not surprisingly, Bowling for Columbine is #1 with $21.6 million.

natesfortune

I don't think this guy will be recruiting any more viewers after having seen it:

http://slate.msn.com/id/2102723/

Numanoid

$37.68 million

RyoHazuki

I passed out at around paragraph 68. Can anyone sum that up for me?

The Nature Boy

3-5 million dollar opening(only on 500 screens right now don't forget, I"ll revise accordingly if that changes by weeks end). And that's a darn good opening for that film. I think it will top out at 17-20 million. The big reason being, it's not being built small, by the looks of things, ala BFC, but in a big inital push.

Furthermore, the word of mouth could be bad. Inital rumblings about a misguided base for a large portion of the film(the Bin Laden Flights refuted by Richard Clarke), and even flack coming from people like Christopher Hitchens could spell overload for this one.

It will still make a healthy profit, and could whisper by BFC, but I think this one is being overestimated.

necros

I think it'll make a lot, because it's popular to hate the president, no matter who he is. People just love to hate.

Bird Jenkins

Nature Boy:

If it's only opening on 500 screens, my previously stated guess of $20 million opening weekend might be a bit high, but I'm willing to wager just about anything that its opening will be significantly higher than $3 to $5 million (those are TUPAC:RESURRECTION numbers), and that it will roll out on more screens after these numbers come in.

Groucho

It's actually 700+ screens.

DonnachaOne

My manager has it opening on our biggest screen opening day. He says that with presales it's already in the top ten documentaries of all time.

The Nature Boy

Well the screens are very much in flux. I just heard an interview with a guy from the organization trying to get exhibitors not to feature this who quoted the Moore website as saying their theater count was down to 417 screens. But if Groucho has an updated link to 700, I'd be interested in seeing that. That said, I don't see this being a round the clock movie which typically drives blockbusters, and the word of mouth WILL be harsh. Not necessarily for any politcal message but for . I'm just giving you my guess, I'd say it could top out at 6 million for the opener, but I don't know what you'd call "signifcantly" higher. Whatever the final tally, 6 bucks of it will be mine, I"m as curious as anyone to check it out, as I saw the Big One and BFC on opening night as well.

The Nature Boy

I should also add, I've heard a few talk radio calls advocating conservatives or Moore haters who want to see this should go to the multiplex, buy a ticket to something else, and then see F9/11. On what scale that would/will occur who knows, but it could defintely take a bite out of the gross. But films like this typically preach to the choir, so I'd doubt it'd be a signifcant early opposition turnout that would be lost in such a scenario. But a factor in trying to figure the gross.

Groucho

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/...4&wk=26&p=.htm

The Nature Boy

I think that's been recalibrated, since it says it updates Thursday afternoons. On www.michaelmoore.com , the man himself states there are "a little over 500 screens". But it doesn't matter until it hits theaters. I could see this falling back to 350 theaters by Friday or opening to 1200 in a few weeks. Its an interesting time to follow movies, politics AND the box office, and between this and the Passion, it looks like a landmark year for cinema, and not just for what's on the screen but what's surrounded it. When has America spent so much time talking movies?

RyoHazuki

Im gonna say 12 mil opening weekend. 25 mil overall.

shaggy

I wouldn't say just conservatives, I have heard some Liberal Democrat radio shows saying the same thing. A lot of people don't appreciate MM exploiting 9/11 and the War in Iraq for money.

gcribbs

1 million per 100 screens opening weekend.

so 750 screens equals 7.5 million.

Of course I thought Around the World could make 20 million so what do I really know

Terrell

I can. Michael Moore is a frickin' idiot. There's a myriad of reasons why this is the case. All you've got to do is listen to some of the crap that comes out of his mouth to know he's an idiot.

Either way, I'd predict 25 million for this so-called documentary.

pezboy

When I started this thread yesterday, boxofficemojo had F911 on 700+ screens. Now it's up to 800+. I wonder where that number will be by Friday morning. That's what I based my meager opening weekend prediction on.

Speaking of screens, I know of a local exhibitor getting threatening e-mails and voice mails regarding them showing F911. They're playing it, but hadn't released screen info until today. I wonder if other exhibitors are waiting until late to let the word out where it's playing.