Could there really be no next-gen system from either Sony or Microsoft?

[Sub-Zero]

I'm sure by now everyone has heard the rumor that Sony or Microsoft might not make a next-gen system. Like most people, I didn't believe that for a second. However, with rumors that the Xbox 720 chipset is now in production, and new reports that Sony has again suffered a massive net loss, along with the fact that Sony is apparently not revealing the PS4 at E3 this year, is it possible that Sony may not have the money required to develop the PS4 and thus really leave the console business?

[kgrogers1979]

Oh, Sony has been developing the PS4 for some time now. These things don't just develop over night. It takes many many years. R&D on the Xbox720 and PS4 would have begun very soon after the Xbox360 and PS3 were launched. They are well into development by this point.

Sony, as a whole, may have suffered a net loss, but their video game division is their biggest profit division. They are therefore much more likely to drop a less profitable division, TVs or other electronics or whatever it may be, than to drop their video game division. If they got out of video games, they might as well just close their doors and go out of business.

I guess they might pull a Sega and get out of hardware and go software-only, but they are really still far from that point as well. Sega suffered massive loss after massive loss with a string of failures to get that point. It was Sega CD to 32X to Saturn to Dreamcast. Just boom, boom, boom, failure after failure. Sony has only had one real failure, and that was really just releasing a $600 console in the middle of a very bad economic depression. It was really just bad timing. PS3 is doing well now that the economy is picking up. Their next console should fare better.

[fumanstan]

No.

[fujishig]

I think it's more likely that Nintendo bows out of the next-next generation, if the 3DS and the Wii U both turn out to be flops, and with the earnings they've been having (they still have a big warchest, but I think they need some traction). Even that seems unthinkable. If the 360 had dominated in Japan (or the PSP hadn't been saved by Monster Hunter) I could see Sony having a harder time, but I cannot imagine either of them bowing out of the next gen.

Of course, if Apple enters the market...

[mhg83]

I think in ten years there will be only one console. An all media device. An ipad like tablet that has the power of a next gen console. When you take it home, hook it up to your tv through HDMI and continue playing with a wireless controller.

[kgrogers1979]

Originally Posted by mhg83

I think in ten years there will be only one console.

Monopolies are bad.

An ipad like tablet that has the power of a next gen console.

And that's even worse.

The power of hardware is limited by size. Huge amounts of power produce huge amounts of heat. Why do you think PC towers are so big? The actual computer components are relatively small and fill up only maybe a quarter of the tower. The rest of the empty space is there so it can breathe because of the extraordinary amount of heat it produces. Laptops are generally less powerful because they have less room to breathe and therefore can't handle as much heat. That's also why today's consoles are having so many problems with RROD and all that. Its largely because of the heat. So a tablet with that much power... not going to happen.

[kgrogers1979]

Originally Posted by Sub-Zero

Sony's Consumer Products and Services division, which houses all things PlayStation, fared little better, posting a loss of $1.09 billion (£ 688 million) for the quarter. This is despite actual sales of the PS3 being up year-on-year. 6.5 million consoles were sold between October and December, which is 200,000 more than in the same period a year ago.

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/121/1217809p1.html

Thank you for proving my point.

It says that their video game division fared better than their own divisions. So which, if any, division is likely to get cut? Certainly not the one that fared better than others.

It also says that sales have been improving, probably because of the improving economy as a whole, which also proves that my earlier point about releasing a $600 console in the middle of a bad economic depression was a mistake and wouldn't be repeated with the PS4. So while the video game division suffered a loss, it has improved and suffered less of a loss since sales have improved.

[Sub-Zero]

^Oops, sorry, accidentally deleted instead of editing.

According to this report, "The Consumer Products & Services division, of which Sony Computer Entertainment is a part, brought in $12.8 billion in revenue, a 24.4% year-on-year decrease resulting in losses of loss of $1.1 billion."

[devilshalo]

Sony's profitable division is SPE, not SCEA.

[msdmoney]

Originally Posted by kgrogers1979

Monopolies are bad.

The idea of a single console is more of a single open platform than one console manufacturer winning out. The problem with the system we have now is that we have multiple incompatible formats, and once you've bought into a console they have control over your access to content because it is a closed platform. In a world where games will inevitably be download only the scariest thing is the closed platform system we have now.

[Anubis2005X]

Originally Posted by msdmoney

The idea of a single console is more of a single open platform than one console manufacturer winning out.

Isn't that basically a PC?

[dsa_shea]

Who would be the creator and benefactor of this single open platform console? I don't really like the idea of only one console on the market.

[mhg83]

Originally Posted by dsa_shea

Who would be the creator and benefactor of this single open platform console? I don't really like the idea of only one console on the market.

How is it any different than movies and music? I can take a dvd and it'll play in all dvd players. I don't have to buy three different players to watch my movies on. If i buy a music cd it'll play in all my cd players.

[kgrogers1979]

Originally Posted by Anubis2005X

Isn't that basically a PC?

Pretty much.

If they did something like that with the console market, it would present the same problems many people hate about PC gaming. In other words, lots of incompatibilities and buggy gaming. People think that games on the consoles this gen have been buggy, but there hasn't been anything nearly as buggy as PC games can get. You haven't truly experienced a buggy game until you see some of the worst drecks on PC.

PC games are buggy because they have to be designed to work on thousands and thousands of possible configurations. Motherboards, processors, RAM, video cards, the OS, etc even the slightest change can present a problem. Consoles have one and only one configuration so they are far simpler to program. If the console market went open-market like that, then it would be exactly like PCs with thousands of different configurations.

Originally Posted by mhg83

How is it any different than movies and music? I can take a dvd and it'll play in all dvd players. I don't have to buy three different players to watch my movies on. If i buy a music cd it'll play in all my cd players.

Video games are far more complex than movies and music. Movies and music will play in any player because their systems are incredibly simple compared to a video game system.

[Drexl]

Originally Posted by kgrogers1979

Pretty much.

If they did something like that with the console market, it would present the same problems many people hate about PC gaming. In other words, lots of incompatibilities and buggy gaming. People think that games on the consoles this gen have been buggy, but there hasn't been anything nearly as buggy as PC games can get. You haven't truly experienced a buggy game until you see some of the worst drecks on PC.

PC games are buggy because they have to be designed to work on thousands and thousands of possible configurations. Motherboards, processors, RAM, video cards, the OS, etc even the slightest change can present a problem. Consoles have one and only one configuration so they are far simpler to program. If the console market went open-market like that, then it would be exactly like PCs with thousands of different configurations.

But by nature of this theoretical device being a "console," I think the suggestion was that the hardware would be standardized. He just meant "open" in the sense that they wouldn't have to get the games licensed and distributed by Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo.

One problem I could see with a single platform is that it would be more expensive. I'm assuming this would be like DVD/BD players, where multiple companies could produce it. But without the game licensing, there is no incentive to sell the console at a loss or at a minimal profit point, because they won't make it back in software.

[Sub-Zero]

Originally Posted by Drexl

But by nature of this theoretical device being a "console," I think the suggestion was that the hardware would be standardized. He just meant "open" in the sense that they wouldn't have to get the games licensed and distributed by Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo.

One problem I could see with a single platform is that it would be more expensive. I'm assuming this would be like DVD/BD players, where multiple companies could produce it. But without the game licensing, there is no incentive to sell the console at a loss or at a minimal profit point, because they won't make it back in software.

Isn't that kind of what happened with the 3DO?

[kgrogers1979]

Yeah, that was done with the 3DO. Three different companies made their own 3D0 console. It was a freaking disaster. Like Drexl said, consoles are sold for minimal profit, and actually they are sold for a loss the first few years. They are loss leaders to get you to buy software which is where the actual profit is. If a company only produces hardware and no software, there is no way they can sell it for a low price. Which is exactly what happened with the 3D0. It retailed for $700, and keep in mind that is in 1994 dollars. Adjusted for inflation it would be over $1000 in today's dollars.

[Superboy]

Originally Posted by Sub-Zero

I'm sure by now everyone has heard the rumor that Sony or Microsoft might not make a next-gen system. Like most people, I didn't believe that for a second. However, with rumors that the Xbox 720 chipset is now in production, and new reports that Sony has again suffered a massive net loss, along with the fact that Sony is apparently not revealing the PS4 at E3 this year, is it possible that Sony may not have the money required to develop the PS4 and thus really leave the console business?

Do you have any idea how misleading those kinds of profitability reports are?

And no, there's no way in hell that Sony, Nintendo, or Microsoft would pull out now.

[flashburn]

[kgrogers1979]

Originally Posted by Superboy

And no, there's no way in hell that Sony, Nintendo, or Microsoft would pull out now.

According to some people Nintendo is going the way of Sega... for the last 15 years or so...

[orangecrush]

Originally Posted by msdmoney

The idea of a single console is more of a single open platform than one console manufacturer winning out. The problem with the system we have now is that we have multiple incompatible formats, and once you've bought into a console they have control over your access to content because it is a closed platform. In a world where games will inevitably be download only the scariest thing is the closed platform system we have now.

We have that already. It is called the PC.

[Tracer Bullet]

Sure, it's possible. It's not likely, however. Microsoft is heavily invested in the Xbox platform, and Nintendo's entire business model is structured around having a ton of first-party properties to drive hardware sales (and like Apple, they don't sell hardware at a loss.)

Sony... well, who knows. I think the PS3 could hang on for a few more years and compete pretty well with a new Xbox. I don't think Sony wants to spend a ton of money on a new console launch if they don't have to.

[msdmoney]

Originally Posted by Drexl

But by nature of this theoretical device being a "console," I think the suggestion was that the hardware would be standardized. He just meant "open" in the sense that they wouldn't have to get the games licensed and distributed by Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo.

One problem I could see with a single platform is that it would be more expensive. I'm assuming this would be like DVD/BD players, where multiple companies could produce it. But without the game licensing, there is no incentive to sell the console at a loss or at a minimal profit point, because they won't make it back in software.

Yes, sorry I thought it was inferred that the platform hardware would be standardized and that the "open" platform would be the distribution and online gaming components. The original question already grows out of the sense that the 360 and ps3 (hardware) are becoming less relevant to their respective companies, than XBOX Live and PSN (services). When the hardware becomes less important and the service becomes more important, it will be important to the consumer for the hardware to be open to different services.

[DVD Josh]

Microsoft will have to embrace BD for its next generation console, if only for data purposes.

[flashburn]

Originally Posted by DVD Josh

Microsoft will have to embrace BD for its next generation console, if only for data purposes.

Not really.