75 million PS3s sold by 2010

[Jtnguyen12]

Research firm: 75 million PS3s sold by 2010
The first professional prognostication of the year says Sony's system will win the console wars but won't dominate like its predecessor.
By Tim Surette, GameSpot
Posted Jan 2, 2007 10:42 am PT
While most of the globe spent the last few days popping champagne and recuperating from the subsequent headaches, business analyst firm Research and Markets, based out of Dublin, Ireland, was busy putting the final touches on its latest examination of the gaming industry.

The company is currently peddling a brief titled "The Transforming Global Video Games Market: The Emergence of Next Generation Gaming," which examines the future of the industry, concentrating largely on the race between the PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, and Wii.

The firm believes that the PS3 will ultimately carry the largest market share, with 75 million PS3s sold worldwide by 2010. However, the company doesn't expect the PS3 to dominate the new console cycle the same way the PlayStation 2 did last generation, due largely to European "late launch issues" and the head start of the Xbox 360.

Though Research and Markets didn't divulge its long-term sales predictions for the Xbox 360 or Wii in today's press release, a quick look at the brief's table of contents reveals more of the company's opinions. Titles of topics include "Xbox 360 is close on the heels of the PS3 overall," "The US is expected to be the largest next-generation console market by 2010," and "The handheld market is no longer a one horse race."
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Good luck if sony can sold 35 millions by 2010 & 75 million PS3s sold worldwide by 2013 (After price drop & re-design version).

[Michael Corvin]

Not sure why this analyst's report warrant's it's own thread. Some random analyst seems to come out of the woodwork every week to report on a victor.

Here are a few other analysts "predictions:"

Could Sony go from Worst to First?

Sony to Win Big in Long Run?

Sony's PS3: High-Scorer No More

I just pulled these three from a Joystiq Article and I'm sure there are more out there. While fun to read (they all end up sounding just as biased as the fan bases they are reporting on) truth is none of them really have any more insight into the matter than any of us do.

I think it is only of a matter of the PS3 being a hot topic right now and these articles drive traffic to their sites. Nothing more.

[abrg923]

75 million? That's laughable.

[taffer]

If they expect to sell 75 million PS3s there better be some huge price drops on an annual basis. No way is the average consumer going to buy a $500-$600 video game machine.

[The Bus]

I don't think 75 million can be achieved by 2010. The PS3 has a tougher road ahead than any of its predecessors and I don't see how they could sell 75 million by 2010. Fifty or sixty million? Sure. Seventy-five by the end of the life cycle? Absolutely. But 75 million by 2010...?

It would need to sell as quickly as the PS2. I don't see that happening.

[raven56706]

.....

at that price.....

[Samisking23]

huh??? 2010??? wait shouldn't PS4 be coming out sometime by then , and wouldn't we will end up with Xbox 720 by 2009??

What is this about the Handheld not being a one horse race??? Ds is dominating now and Nintendo handheld will dominate all thru 2010. If the psp is any indication of the future of the competition Nintendo need not sweat.

[dom56]

By 2010 Sony well probably file for bankrupty becauce they're getting their ass kick by M$ and Nintendo.

[Setzer]

Originally Posted by dom56

By 2010 Sony well probably file for bankrupty becauce they're getting their ass kick by M$ and Nintendo.

[Lastblade]

120% defective rate might get Sony there.... maybe.

[FantasticVSDoom]

Um, was this research funded by Sony?

[DVD Josh]

I love my PS3 but this is some weed-smoking shit right here.

[BigDaddy]

I can not figure out why people want Sony to fail. Competition is a great thing.

[mrpayroll]

http://www.cbronline.com/article_res...9-2717A77A7C4D

Games consoles: Sony's PS3 to win the console war by 2010
2nd January 2007

By 2010, Sony's PS3 is expected to have 'won' the console war, although not as securely as it did in the previous generation lifecycle. Around 75 million PS3 consoles are forecast to have been sold globally by the end of 2010, while Microsoft's Xbox 360 is expected to have sold around 40 million units, and Nintendo's Wii is predicted to have sold around 31 million.



Source: Datamonitor, "The transforming global video games market: the emergence of next generation gaming (Market Focus)" (BFTC1488)

I think they are vastly overestimating the difference between the 1st and 3rd place machines. No way Sony (or XBox 360) is going to sell that much more than the Wii.

Chris

[Jimmy James]

I don't think this is all that crazy. If Sony wins the HD format war and therefore gets the prices on the drive going in the right direction, they have a shot. They're going to need some killer games within the next 12 months, but I imagine they probably have that covered. I think it's pretty clear that they're going to be going into holiday 2007 behind due to 360's head start and Wii's extreme popularity, but Wii could end up just being a fad and the PS3 might be really compelling from then on out. I'm focusing less on the number here than on the ultimate winner. At this point, there is a ton of battling left to do.

[Setzer]

Originally Posted by BigDaddy

I can not figure out why people want Sony to fail. Competition is a great thing.

It's apparently "cool" to hate Sony these days.

[Setzer]

Originally Posted by mrpayroll

http://www.cbronline.com/article_res...9-2717A77A7C4D


I think they are vastly overestimating the difference between the 1st and 3rd place machines. No way Sony (or XBox 360) is going to sell that much more than the Wii.

Chris

I think that Sony will eventually catch up and pass the 360 in the next 2 years but Nintendo is going to win this thing. Wouldn't surprise me if the Wii catches passes the 360 by this fall.

[Jimmy James]

There is still a significant danger that the Wii is a fad. I'm rooting for it because I think it's a very cool idea, but it's going to take a while before we know how things are going to shake out with it.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Originally Posted by BigDaddy

I can not figure out why people want Sony to fail. Competition is a great thing.

I don't even think it comes down to the implied fanboyism: Blu-ray + $500-$600 system just sucks for the vast majority of people who buy consoles. I'm personally not the least bit interested in spending 'extra' to help Sony trojan horse their way to a new media standard. In particular, I don't believe that the leap from DVD to Blu-ray is going to be meaningful for more than a handful of games.

[Dazed]

I too hope the Wii will be more than a fad and cant wait to get my hands on one

At the moment its doing a great job undermining the PS3 Launch (seems every other article is about how well nintendo are doing and how badly sony are doing) but hopefully the PS3 will gain some momentum as Id like there to be 3 consoles available.

Sony should have given a non Blu Ray option, this seems to be the thing which is the focus of peoples anger towards the PS3 and whats put the price so high.

[NiCK Crush]

i just saw 5 60GB PS3s at my local Meijer.

-NiCK

[abrg923]

Originally Posted by Jimmy James

I don't think this is all that crazy. If Sony wins the HD format war and therefore gets the prices on the drive going in the right direction, they have a shot. They're going to need some killer games within the next 12 months, but I imagine they probably have that covered. I think it's pretty clear that they're going to be going into holiday 2007 behind due to 360's head start and Wii's extreme popularity, but Wii could end up just being a fad and the PS3 might be really compelling from then on out. I'm focusing less on the number here than on the ultimate winner. At this point, there is a ton of battling left to do.

Re-read that post, and you'll realize that that's a ridiculous amount of "ifs".

As far as killer games, they have very few that won't be on the 360 as well.

Originally Posted by Ralph Wiggum

I don't even think it comes down to the implied fanboyism: Blu-ray + $500-$600 system just sucks for the vast majority of people who buy consoles. I'm personally not the least bit interested in spending 'extra' to help Sony trojan horse their way to a new media standard. In particular, I don't believe that the leap from DVD to Blu-ray is going to be meaningful for more than a handful of games.

Bingo.

[Michael Corvin]

Originally Posted by Setzer

It's apparently "cool" to hate Sony these days.

I don't think that is it at all, at least on these boards. I mean the average age around here is 30+, way beyond acting "cool" to a bunch of strangers.

Sony fucked up this gen royally...so far. Plain and simple. It has nothing to do with hating Sony. They are digging their own grave and the only people blind to the fact are the ones that are buying it for the brand name and not the console. Seriously, who buys a console for $600 for Resistance and 15+ other titles that are available on the $200 cheaper machine that not only look better but have far superior online capabilities? Brand name. That is what Sony is floating on and to be fair, that is what they have been banking on all along. Kudos to them for nailing their target demographic.

And to hit that 75 million Sony needs to start cranking them out, at roughly 19 million a year. That is a preposterous amount of consoles considering their price structure.

*edit
Thinking about it, what is wrong with wanting them to fail anyway? I'm in it for the games and I have a BIG problem with price. It's $600 and $60 games this gen, but if they succeed at those prices what's to stop them from charging $1000 for the PS4 and $75 for games thus paving the way for the other companies to charge more as well? It is a downward spiral that began on Nov. 20, 2006. Just like the Horse Armor was the beginning of the Marketplace content downward spiral. They think they have carte blance when it comes to pricing because of their name, but by paying Sony's outrageous prices it tells them as well as Nintendo & MS that you are okay paying $600 for a gaming console. More people need to speak with their wallets.

[Nefarious]

I agree with what the posters before me have said in regards to Sony's actions/motives.

That being said the first two consoles I owned were the PS1 & PS2. I finally got an Xbox (once they dropped to below $150 and that was more for XBMC capabilities for divx than anything else).

Of the next-gen systems the only one I've bought so far is the Nintendo Wii. If you had asked me 6 months ago, nay 2 months ago, if I would have figured to ever own a Nintendo product I'd have said "hell no". But they got it right...they built a gaming machine first and foremost.

That article reeks of Sony shill-ism. Perfect time to throw some bullshit numbers out there to try and divert attention from their third place holiday sales and fact that people can find the machine everywhere now. They have no buzz right now and this is an attempt to generate some. The hope that people will not see through it and think that "if this is the end-all-be-all and will sell that many...why don't I own one...I need to go buy one."

[FantasticVSDoom]

Sony makes it real easy to "hate" them... But I don't think its so much that people hate them, but some of the comments coming from Sony just seem to rub people the wrong way. For me personally, its just the price issue. As soon as BD and or a PS3 is more affordable, I will buy one in a heartbeat. Depending on when/if the price drops and for how much will determine if this will beat the 360 or the Wii.

Plus, is was much cooler to hate MS before Sony anyways ...