Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

[classicman2]

I wonder what happened to the 2year old female Eclipse Award winner last year - My Miss Aurelia. She did have a bruised shin after the BC but she worked 5 to 7 furlongs in February. I assumed she would run in the Fantasy, The Oaks, or the Black Eyed Susan.

[Red Dog]

I think they are looking at early summer for her to return.

[snowballs]

more Preakness news...

Isn’t He Clever, Hansen, Liaison, Hierro and Brimstone Island all out, Daddy Nose Best is a possibility. A decision will be made on Pretention tomorrow.

Pimlico says 10-12 runners most likely.

[classicman2]

Originally Posted by snowballs

more Preakness news...

Isn’t He Clever, Hansen, Liaison, Hierro and Brimstone Island all out, Daddy Nose Best is a possibility. A decision will be made on Pretention tomorrow.

Pimlico says 10-12 runners most likely.

Welcome to the forum and to this thread. There aren't too many of our members who are interested in horse racing.

[snowballs]

Pretention and Daddy Nose Best are now confirmed starters for the Preakness.

In wagering news, there will be a $1 Double linking the Pimlico Special and the Preakness.

[classicman2]

If pedigree means anything, and it generally does, Daddy Nose Best should be a real threat. He hasn't got a bad trainer either.

[snowballs]

Originally Posted by classicman2

I wonder what happened to the 2year old female Eclipse Award winner last year - My Miss Aurelia. She did have a bruised shin after the BC but she worked 5 to 7 furlongs in February. I assumed she would run in the Fantasy, The Oaks, or the Black Eyed Susan.

Returned to worktab today on Vinery's training track.

[classicman2]

The Preakness field
1 3/16 miles

1. Tiger Walk, Kent Desormeau, Ignacio Correas, 30-to-1

2. Teeth of the Dog , Joe Bravo, Michaael Matz), 15-to-1

3. Pretension, Javier Santiageo, Christopher Grove, Javier Santiago, 30-to-1

4. Zetterholm, Junior Alvarado, Rick Dutrow, 20-to-1

5. Went the Day Well, John Velazquez, Graham Motion, 6-to-1

6. Creative Cause, Joel Rosario, Mike Harrington, 6-to-1

7. Bodemeister, Mike Smith, Bob Baffert,, 8-to-5

8. Daddy Nose Best, Julien Leparoux, Steve Asmussen, 12-to-1

9. I'll Have Another, Mario Gutierrez, Doug O'Neill, 5-to-2

10. Optimizer, Corey Nakatani, D. Wayne Lukas, 30-to-1

11. Cozzetti, Jose Lezcano, Dale Romans, 30-to-1


I wonder if Smith will take Bodemeister to the front and run the fractions that he did in the derby?

I like Teeth of the Dog a little - principally because of the trainer & the jockey. The odds aren't bad either.

I'm not going to bet on Optimizer any more. I've given up on him.

Asmussen has a pretty good record at The Preakness. Of course, I don't believe Daddy Nose Best is as good as Curlin & Rachel Alexandra.

[Red Dog]

All the main contenders are right in the middle, so no PP issues. I doubt Bodemeister will go out as fast - there's no other early speed in this race with Hansen and Trinniberg out. I'm sure he'll be sitting on the lead though through a mile.

I'm pretty sold on the top-2. Preakness is a favorite's race. I think IHA will end up 2-1 or shorter by post with Bodemeister around even or 6-5. So this makes betting tough - hard to find value. Rare time I might play a superfecta - box those two on the top and find another 4 horses to box in the 3/4 slots. Might play those 2 on top in a tri with longshots on the bottom.

I saw an interesting stat -- if you're playing exotics, you better well have Bodemeister in it. The Preakness betting favorite has hit the board all but twice since 2000. And one of those that didn't was Barbaro. The other one that didn't was Super Saver (2010) which somewhat surprised me because I thought Lookin' at Lucky was the favorite by post time.

[classicman2]

I believe the 5 & 6 horse(s) might, at least, put early pressure on Bodemeister.

btw: When is the last time a front running horse won The Preakness - Rachel Alexandra?

[Red Dog]

Free PPs:

G3 Pimlico Special: http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/pimspecial12

G1 Preakness S: http://helloracefans.com/pdfs/pps/dp...ess-Stakes.pdf

[classicman2]

Pimilico Special (G3)
Friday, 5/18/2012
3 yr. olds & up
Purse: $300,000
1 3/16 miles

PP
Horse
Jockey
Wgt
Trainer
M/L

1
Toby's Corner
E Castro
118
H G Motion
6/1

2
Endorsement
M Garcia
124
E G Harty
8/1

3
Hymn Book
J R Velazquez
124
C R McGaughey III
4/1


4
Cherokee Artist
V Santiago
118
J J Robb
15/1

5
Nehro
C S Nakatani
118
S M Asmussen
8/1

6
Mission Impazible
J Castellano
118
T A Pletcher
7/2

7
Yawanna Twist
M J Luzzi
118
J Parisella
12/1

8
Alternation
L S Quinonez
124
D K Von Hemel
4/1

9
Eighttofasttocatch
S Russell
124
T L Keefe
15/1

One of the better fields (top to bottom) you will see.
It's a wide open race, IMO.
Alternation looked really good in The Oaklawn Handicap

Solution: Bet the entire field. ;

[sinned]

Questions I've always wanted to ask (warning: newbie questions):

1. Why is there an age limit for the major races (Kentucky Derby / Belmont / Preakness)? I know that the Kentucky Derby is only for 3 year olds. Why not allow 4 years old to run? I would think that allowing the winner last year to defend his crown would be exciting. I understand that at 3 years old that the horses may be at their physical peak but is it really that much of a difference between 3 years old and 4 years old? Its like only allowing NBA players to play when they are 22-28 years old.

2. So for every race horse talented enough to enter a major race, I would guess that there are hundreds or even thousands of race horses that don't pan out & are unable to have a career in horse racing for one reason or another. What happens to these horses? Are the unlucky owners forced to care for these horses for the next 20 years at great cost? I imagine that they would be unworthy of breeding since they were unsuccessful race horses in the first place. Its not like chickens where those who don't lay eggs get slaughtered or fish where the majority is culled.

[classicman2]

1. The Triple Crown is limited to 3-year olds. All will carry the same weight - 126 lbs. That's just the way it is set-up - don't ask me why? Many, if not most, horses don't reach their racing peak at 3. Older horses quite often are superior in strength & speed. John Henry didn't reach his peak until he was 6 or 7 years old. He's the only horse that won a Grade 1 race at age 9.

2. The Kentucky Derby field is limited to 20 horses. The twenty top graded stakes earners (from races age 2 and age 3) are the horses that make up the field. The Preakness & Belmont choose their fields (limit 14 horses) in a different manner.

3. Older horses (geldings) can earn a bunch of money for their owners, trainers, & jockeys. John Henry was a perfect example.

btw: In all 3 of the above races there have been a number of changes over the many decades of American horse racing. The Derby hasn't always been run at a mile & a quarter. The Preakness hasn't always been run at a mile & an eighth. And The Belmont hasn't always been run at the same distance -1 1/2 miles. Now there is always a 20-horse field in The Derby - not so in the past - and still shouldn't be so, IMO.

As been said a number of times on these horse racing threads - the 3 Triple Crown races are not the most important races. The Met Mile, The Jockey Club Gold Cup, the Breeders' Cup are considerably more important to the viability of the sport. They just don't have the coverage and glamour that The Kentucky Derby has.

[Red Dog]

The Preakness isn't 1 1/8 now.

[Maxflier]

The Derby is the premier race for 3 year olds. If you let in older horses, who as Classicman said are generally superior and much more experienced, then 3 year olds wouldn't have much chance anymore. Older horses have their own big races to run in.

[Red Dog]

Yeah, and I agree that the bigger races for horse race fans are the fall races, once you get past the Travers, since the races are open to 3 and up.

Plus I think it's great that the Triple Crown is a one shot deal. Makes it all the more of an achievement. The only unfortunate part is that some young horses don't blossom until later in their 3yo season....Blame being a perfect example from a few years ago.

[classicman2]

One thing about each of the triple crown races, the ladies get to dress in their fineries.

Of course, for the vast majority, it's the only time they attend horse races.

[Red Dog]

Originally Posted by classicman2

One thing about each of the triple crown races, the ladies get to dress in their fineries.

Of course, for the vast majority, it's the only time they attend horse races.

Or in the infield, particularly at Pimlico, flash their goods.

[classicman2]

Are you going to be at Pimlico tomorrow?

[classicman2]

Jockey Kent Desormeau has been taken off his Preakness mount, Tiger Walk, by his trainer Correas because NY racing stewards suspended Desormeau for his failure at a breath analyzer test. It's not the first time this has happened to the jockey.

[Red Dog]

Originally Posted by classicman2

Are you going to be at Pimlico tomorrow?

I'm too old for that shit. I did the Preakness 4 years running 1997-2000. Including the year some fool ran out on the track and tried to punch one of the horses in an undercard race.

I'm at the beach this weekend. Hopefully I can find an internet feed to watch the Black Eyed Susan and Pimlico Special.

[Red Dog]

Pretty shitty effort by Mamma Kimbo. Way too fast early.

[classicman2]

The Pletcher fillies finished 1-2 in The Blackeyed Susan.

Mama Kimbo was a sucker bet. She wasn't all that impressive in The Fantasy at Oaklawn. She went to the post as an odds-on favorite.

[classicman2]

Nehro is back to his 3-year old form - finishing second in The Pimilico Special. Alternation wins.