Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

[Red Dog]

Well I had that combo in my EX box, but it won't pay much. I think 7 or 8f is Shackleford's wheelhouse.

[Maxflier]

No Kenny Mayne

[Red Dog]

Nice payouts on the Woodford if you had it. Turbo Compressor sucked.

Now an eternity until the Derby post.

[classicman2]

Robby Albarado was/is off his mounts yesterday & today. Reason - he's in the slammer - for the second time in recent months. First he beat up his wife and now he kicked his girl friend out. He's gone down hill since Curlin was retired.

[Red Dog]

Hit the exacta and hit my Oaks/Derby double!!!!

[starman9000]

Nice! I had the winner, but no money.

[Red Dog]

Would like to see those 2 go again in the Preakness. Bodemeister was impressive in trying to go wire to wire. 1 3/16 might suit him perfectly.

[starman9000]

What is the payout on the exacta and trifecta for today's race?

[Maxflier]

Bodemeister still finishing second after those fractions is pretty scary.

[Red Dog]

Originally Posted by starman9000

What is the payout on the exacta and trifecta for today's race?

$2 ex paid 306. $2 Tri paid 3,064.

[starman9000]

Yeah, just saw that on the broadcast. Hope you bet more.

[Red Dog]

Didn't - had 5 horses boxed which is $40. But between that and my Oaks/Derby double and taking out my loser plays, I cleared about $600.

[classicman2]

Originally Posted by Red Dog

Would like to see those 2 go again in the Preakness. Bodemeister was impressive in trying to go wire to wire. 1 3/16 might suit him perfectly.

I agree. The Preakness will suit his running style better. I told my wife that there was no chance for him to win after I saw the first 1/4 & 1/2 fractions - a track record I believe. However, there won't be a 20 horse field at The Preakness. Most likely there will be another speed horse or 2 who might run with him.

I was glad to see Doug O'Neil's horse win. He's from the old school of trainers. It was the first time in a long time that he's worn a coat & tie.

If I were Michael Matz and planned to run Union Rags again, I would have another jockey riding him. I realize that Lepareaux won the Eclipse Award a couple of years ago, but he has the habit of putting his horse on the rail and not taking him off the rail soon enough. He did that with Asmussen's horses (Wilburn for example) all the time. If the rail or a slot close to the rail didn't open up he was finished.

[Red Dog]

Union Rags could use a new rider and a tune-up race before the top summer events because I don't see him running the Preakness and the Belmont is too long for him IMO.

Hansen really faded. I actually thought he was in really good position but the fast pace killed him. He seems to be better suited for the middle distances.

[classicman2]

The two HOF jockeys on NBC (Stevens & Bailey) were great jockeys - not too good at picking winners though. They both though Union Rags was the horse to beat.

If Bodemeister does win The Preakness I don't believe Baffert will run him in The Belmont. I don't think he can be rated enough to be effective at the mile & a half. He's one of the fastest horses I've seen in a long time. He's going to be tough to beat at 1 mile thru 1 1/8.

[Red Dog]

Originally Posted by classicman2

If Bodemeister does win The Preakness I don't believe Baffert will run him in The Belmont. I don't think he can be rated enough to be effective at the mile & a half. He's one of the fastest horses I've seen in a long time. He's going to be tough to beat at 1 mile thru 1 1/8.

Agreed, and there's no reason to. And the Haskell sets up well for him too, since that's 1 1/8. He kind of reminds me of Rachel Alexandra who was perfect at 9 furlongs.

But if I'll Have Another can win the Preakness, have to think he's got a decent shot at winning the Belmont. He's clearly a distance horse. It would come down the fresh horses coming into that. For example, I can see Dullahan sitting out the Preakness to race in the Belmont.

I can see the Preakness being a bunch of crap horses outside of those 2. Maybe box those 2 on top of others for superfectas.

[Heat]

Union Rags impressed me - he was caught at the back of the pack but somehow got out of the crowd and made it to 7th overall. If he didn't have that misstep at the gate I think he could have won.

Gemologist was the disappointment for me. Had a decent start, was in third or fourth place for the first half, but fell to something like 17th place by the end.

Bodemeister had a great race but was looking a little wobbly at the very end. Still a great race for him.

Personally, I had $20 in bets, lost it all. Oh well.

[Red Dog]

I'll Have Another is heading to Pimlico on Monday. That's out of the norm - usually the Derby winner doesn't show up until a few days before the Preakness.

Preakness probables and possibles:

As of Sunday morning, far fewer than half the 20 horses who ran in the Derby were likely to come back in the Preakness. Bodemeister, who finished second, is likely to run as are Creative Cause (fifth) and Hansen (ninth).

Other horses who could go to the Preakness, but are far less certain, are Dullahan (third), Went the Day Well (fourth), Liaison (sixth), and Optimizer (11th).

Among those who did not run in the Derby but could turn up in the Preakness are Cozetti, Hierro, Isn’t He Clever, Paynter, The Lumber Guy, Tiger Walk, Zetterholm, and Pretension and Brimstone Island, who ran one-two in the Canonero II Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico.

Union Rags is likely waiting for the Belmont.

“My first thought now is to say we won’t go to the Preakness,” Matz said. “It’s a long year and waiting for the Belmont makes more sense. I don’t think distance has ever been a question for this horse. In his last two races, we never got a chance to see his full stride. He probably didn’t get the opportunity to run a half-mile in the two races combined.”

[classicman2]

It's a quick turnaround for any horse who ran in The Blue Grass, or the Arkansas Derby, & The Kentucky Derby to run in The Preakness & The Belmont. Very few have done it lately. Afterall, there are no Count Fleets running anymore.

[Red Dog]

BSFs from Derby weekend at Churchill:

I'll Have Another (Derby) - 101

Believe You Can (Oaks) - 100

Successful Dan - 110, Fort Larned - 108 (Alysheba)

Little Mike - 102 (Woodford Turf; 2nd best on Turf this year)

Shackleford - 103 (CD Stakes)

[Red Dog]

Not surprisingly, 3rd place Derby finisher, Dullahan, will skip the Preakness and point to the Belmont. He should be a top Belmont contender. Maybe the favorite if I'll Have Another loses in the Preakness.

[Red Dog]

Larry Jones' Mark Valeski takes the G2 Peter Pan. Probably will take a shot at the Belmont now.

Right to Vote, a 45-1 shot, had a Bodemeister-Derby-like effort - blazing fractions out in front but held on nicely to finish 2nd. Unfortunately, while I had Mark Valeski on top, didn't have Right to Vote in my exacta box. Too bad - it's probably a nice payout. Met Mile might be a good race for him.

[classicman2]

The winning time was 1:48:1. That's not a bad time for the mile & an eighth - one turn.

He seems to be a late blooming 3-year old. That's what you want with The Belmont & late summer & early fall races coming up.

[Red Dog]

Bodemeister has been confirmed for The Preakness. Here's a surprising stat on Derby runners-up. In the last 50 years, 37 Derby runners-up have run the Preakness. Only 2 have won (Summer Squall-1990 and Prairie Bayou-1993). But they do finish in the money 60% of the time (2-10-9).

[Red Dog]

Suprisingly good field for Friday's G3 Pimlico Special, being run for the first time in 4 years. It includes Oaklawn Hdcp winner Alternation (and 3rd place Yawanna Twist), the top-2 from the Donn Hdcp: Hymn Book and Mission Impazible, also Nehro and Toby's Corner.

Friday's G2 Black Eyed Susan features Mamma Kimbo, winner of the Fantasy Stakes, and In Lingerie, winner of the Bourbonette Oaks.