Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond - Page 3

classicman2 · 05-01-12, 01:26 PM

Bet the farm on On Fire Baby!!! Well, maybe not the farm.

Why would one of the most successful jockeys in the country (Nakatani) choose to ride a 50/1 shot? Does he know something that we don't?

classicman2 · 05-01-12, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Dog

Larry Jones has pulled Mark Valeski out of the Derby. That opens the door for Wayne Lukas' Optimizer. Jones is aiming Mark Valeski for the Peter Pan Stakes, May 12 at Belmont, and the Belmont Stakes after that.

If Optimizer gets a decent post position he just might be the horse to bet on. Of course I thought he was a horse to bet on in the Arkansas Derby.

Red Dog · 05-01-12, 01:42 PM

Well if you love Optimizer - you won't have to worry about him getting bet down to something ridiculous after that performance and against this field. As the last one in, he'll probably get little action and end up 50-1 or longer.

Red Dog · 05-02-12, 09:27 AM

Derby Week TV Coverage:

Wednesday, May 2
Derby Draw, NBCSN, 5-6p

Friday, May 4 (Oaks Day)
Graded stakes races on Oaks undercard, HRTV, 2-5p
Kentucky Oaks, NBCSN, 5-6p

Saturday, May 5 (Derby Day)
NBCSN, 11a-4p (includes 4 graded stakes races)
NBC, 4-7p (includes G1 Woodford Turf Classic and the Derby)

classicman2 · 05-02-12, 10:57 AM

When was the last time a Kentucky Derby winner was named HOY?

Red Dog · 05-02-12, 11:09 AM

Charismatic. 1999.

That's the only one since the 1980s.

classicman2 · 05-02-12, 11:15 AM

You and I know The Preakness is more a determinant of how good a horse is than is The Derby.

Red Dog · 05-02-12, 11:29 AM

Sure. I just wish The Derby was limited to 14....to make it less of a crapshoot and a better test. It would likely increase the chances of the Triple Crown winner.

The Derby is the horse racing event of the year (except for years when there is a TC chance at Belmont). For actual fans of the sport and gamblers, I think most of them realize it's highly overrated. But I welcome the attention it brings.

The undercard stakes races are pretty big deals. I don't think there is a weekend outside of the Breeders Cup where you have so many graded stakes races at one track. The only thing really missing is that they couldn't draw the top older dirt spinters/milers (Calibrachoa, Caleb's Posse, Jackson Bend) to their G2 7f event. It does have Amazombie and Shackleford though.

classicman2 · 05-03-12, 07:56 AM

Trivia question: Who is the oldest living (horse) who won The Kentucky Derby?

Red Dog · 05-03-12, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Dog

Kentucky Oaks
Friday, May 4, 2012, 5:45 PM ET
Track: Churchill Downs
TV: NBCSN
Grade: 1
Purse: $1,000,000
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt
Age: 3 F

1. On Fire Baby / J. Johnson / G. Hartlage - 4/1
2. Grace Hall / J. Castellano / A. Dutrow - 5/2
3. Summer Applause / G. Gomez / B. Calhoun - 15/1
4. Eden's Moon / M. Garcia / B. Baffert - 12/1
5. Hard Not to Like / R. Albarado / G. Cox - 20/1
6. Broadway's Alibi / J. Velazquez / T. Pletcher - 4/1
7. Sacristy / M. Smith / W. Catalano - 50/1
8. Jemina's Pearl / J. Talamo / B. Baffert - 10/1
9. Believe You Can / R. Napravnik / L. Jones - 10/1
10. And Why Not / J. Leparoux / M. Matz - 15/1
11. Karlovy Vary / J. Graham / R. Arnold - 20/1
12. Colonial Express / C. Nakatani / D.W. Lukas - 50/1
13. Amie's Dini / J. Court / R. Mouquett - 10/1
14. Yara / J. Castanon / J. Garofollo - 30/1
(AE) Oaks Lily / TBD / T. Hill - 50/1

Kentucky Derby
Saturday, May 05, 2012, 6:20 PM ET
Track: Churchill Downs
TV: NBC
Grade: 1
Purse: $2,000,000
Distance: 1 1/4 Miles on dirt
Age: 3

1) Daddy Long Legs (O’Brien/O’Donoghue) 30-1
2) Optimizer (Lukas/Court) 50-1
3) Take Charge Indy (Byrne/Borel) 15-1
4) Union Rags (Matz/Leparoux) 9-2
5) Dullahan (Romans/Desormeaux) 8-1
6) Bodemeister (Baffert/Smith) 4-1
7) Rousing Sermon (Hollendorfer/Lezcano) 50-1
8) Creative Cause (Harrington/Rosario) 12-1
9) Trinniberg (Parboo/Martinez) 30-1
10) Daddy Nose Best (Asmussen/Gomez) 15-1
11) Alpha (McLaughlin/Maragh) 15-1
12) Prospective (Casse/Contreras) 30-1
13) Went the Day Well (Motion/Velazquez) 20-1
14) Hansen (Maker/Dominguez) 10-1
15) Gemologist (Pletcher/Castellano) 6-1
16) El Padrino (Pletcher/Bejarano) 20-1
17) Done Talking (Smith/Russell) 50-1
18) Sabercat (Asmussen/Nakatani) 30-1
19) I’ll Have Another (O’Neill/Gutierrez) 12-1
20) Liaison (Baffert/M. Garcia) 50-1

I think Creative Cause and I'll Have Another are pretty good value if they stay at those odds. El Padrino too.

It will be interesting to see how much Take Charge Indy is bet down because of Borel.

classicman2 · 05-03-12, 12:00 PM

One horse - don't bet on - PP1. If I were a trainer and drew PP1, I would immediately scratch my horse.

I like the horses from PP8 thru 16. Those horses can basically choose the route position they take.

I like On Fire Baby in the Oaks.

Red Dog · 05-04-12, 10:51 AM

Besides the Oaks, interested in 2 other races today: the La Troienne and the Alysheba Stakes.

La Troienne: Plum Pretty should beat the relatively weak field but St. Johns River (who finished 2nd to Plum Pretty in last year's Oaks) is back after a 9 month layoff. Interested to see what's she's got.

The Alysheba has a very good field of older horses. Nates Mineshaft has won 4 straight and has the best BSF on dirt so far this year (113). Successful Dan has also won 4 straight and won the Clark Hdcp at CD last November. Fort Larned was very impressive in his last race - a 108 in the G3 Skip Away. And Mucho Macho Man, who seems to be much improved over his 3yo efforts.

Maxflier · 05-04-12, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classicman2

Trivia question: Who is the oldest living (horse) who won The Kentucky Derby?

I'm going to guess Strike the Gold? If not, then Lil E. Tee.

Red Dog · 05-04-12, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Dog

Besides the Oaks, interested in 2 other races today: the La Troienne and the Alysheba Stakes.

La Troienne: Plum Pretty should beat the relatively weak field but St. Johns River (who finished 2nd to Plum Pretty in last year's Oaks) is back after a 9 month layoff. Interested to see what's she's got.

Big upset. Plum Pretty, who went off at 2-5, finished 3rd behind 16-1 shot Juanita and St. John's River. Not a good start for Baffert.

edit: not to mention - one of the DRF guys pointed out -- probably knocked out almost all the Pick-6 plays right away.

Red Dog · 05-04-12, 04:04 PM

Pouring at Churchill now. They've postponed the 10th and 11th (Oaks) races by 45 minutes.

Red Dog · 05-04-12, 05:27 PM

Believe You Can! Way to go Larry Jones! I had her in my Oaks/Derby Double. Lost on my EX box though.

Another c-man gem. Keep 'em coming.

classicman2 · 05-04-12, 06:00 PM

I lost on my bet(s) on the Oaks also.

I won one bet today - The Alysheba. You can't lose on a Ken Ramsey turf horse with 'Kitten' in the name, expecially when John Velasquez riding.

It't really a bad day when I post the wrong race!

It was The Edgewood.

Red Dog · 05-04-12, 06:07 PM

I saw the replay of the Alysheba - that was a good battle between Successful Dan and Fort Larned. Nates Mineshaft was a disapointment.

My Believe You Can Derby-double will-pays look sweet. I've got 5 shots at it.

classicman2 · 05-04-12, 06:22 PM

I wasn't that far off on my 'bet the farm' horse. She did finish 3rd - I think.

Baffert didn't have a very good day today.

Red Dog · 05-04-12, 06:23 PM

No, you were well off. 5th. I had the horse that finished 3rd (Grace Hall) in my EX box with Believe You Can.

classicman2 · 05-04-12, 06:24 PM

Bet on Optimizer tomorrow. He will wear the Calumet Farm silks.

Maxflier · 05-04-12, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maxflier

I'm going to guess Strike the Gold? If not, then Lil E. Tee.

Ah, just looked it up and it is neither of those.

classicman2 · 05-05-12, 08:40 AM

I'm going to guess and say it is Alysheba.

Maxflier · 05-05-12, 10:49 AM

Alysheba died a few years ago.

Red Dog · 05-05-12, 01:08 PM

This is a good field in the Churchill D. Sprint.

05-01-12, 01:26 PM	#51
classicman2 DVD Talk God Join Date: Jun 1999 Posts: 66,868	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond Bet the farm on On Fire Baby!!! Well, maybe not the farm. Why would one of the most successful jockeys in the country (Nakatani) choose to ride a 50/1 shot? Does he know something that we don't?

05-01-12, 01:42 PM	#53
Red Dog DVD Talk God Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Directionally Challenged (for DirecTV) Posts: 104,458	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond Well if you love Optimizer - you won't have to worry about him getting bet down to something ridiculous after that performance and against this field. As the last one in, he'll probably get little action and end up 50-1 or longer. __________________ "A question for you. Would you rather Bucknell make the NCAA's once every 20 years or so and get ass raped by teams like Kansas in the first round or have them drop down a rung to a confernce where they can compete for a title?" - Josh Hinkle 1st Round Final Scores: Bucknell 64 Kansas 63 \| Bucknell 59 Arkansas 55

05-02-12, 09:27 AM	#54
Red Dog DVD Talk God Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Directionally Challenged (for DirecTV) Posts: 104,458	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond Derby Week TV Coverage: Wednesday, May 2 Derby Draw, NBCSN, 5-6p Friday, May 4 (Oaks Day) Graded stakes races on Oaks undercard, HRTV, 2-5p Kentucky Oaks, NBCSN, 5-6p Saturday, May 5 (Derby Day) NBCSN, 11a-4p (includes 4 graded stakes races) NBC, 4-7p (includes G1 Woodford Turf Classic and the Derby) __________________ "A question for you. Would you rather Bucknell make the NCAA's once every 20 years or so and get ass raped by teams like Kansas in the first round or have them drop down a rung to a confernce where they can compete for a title?" - Josh Hinkle 1st Round Final Scores: Bucknell 64 Kansas 63 \| Bucknell 59 Arkansas 55

05-02-12, 10:57 AM	#55
classicman2 DVD Talk God Join Date: Jun 1999 Posts: 66,868	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond When was the last time a Kentucky Derby winner was named HOY?

05-02-12, 11:09 AM	#56
Red Dog DVD Talk God Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Directionally Challenged (for DirecTV) Posts: 104,458	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond Charismatic. 1999. That's the only one since the 1980s. __________________ "A question for you. Would you rather Bucknell make the NCAA's once every 20 years or so and get ass raped by teams like Kansas in the first round or have them drop down a rung to a confernce where they can compete for a title?" - Josh Hinkle 1st Round Final Scores: Bucknell 64 Kansas 63 \| Bucknell 59 Arkansas 55

05-02-12, 11:15 AM	#57
classicman2 DVD Talk God Join Date: Jun 1999 Posts: 66,868	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond You and I know The Preakness is more a determinant of how good a horse is than is The Derby.

05-02-12, 11:29 AM	#58
Red Dog DVD Talk God Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Directionally Challenged (for DirecTV) Posts: 104,458	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond Sure. I just wish The Derby was limited to 14....to make it less of a crapshoot and a better test. It would likely increase the chances of the Triple Crown winner. The Derby is the horse racing event of the year (except for years when there is a TC chance at Belmont). For actual fans of the sport and gamblers, I think most of them realize it's highly overrated. But I welcome the attention it brings. The undercard stakes races are pretty big deals. I don't think there is a weekend outside of the Breeders Cup where you have so many graded stakes races at one track. The only thing really missing is that they couldn't draw the top older dirt spinters/milers (Calibrachoa, Caleb's Posse, Jackson Bend) to their G2 7f event. It does have Amazombie and Shackleford though. __________________ "A question for you. Would you rather Bucknell make the NCAA's once every 20 years or so and get ass raped by teams like Kansas in the first round or have them drop down a rung to a confernce where they can compete for a title?" - Josh Hinkle 1st Round Final Scores: Bucknell 64 Kansas 63 \| Bucknell 59 Arkansas 55 Last edited by Red Dog; 05-02-12 at 11:38 AM.

05-03-12, 07:56 AM	#59
classicman2 DVD Talk God Join Date: Jun 1999 Posts: 66,868	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond Trivia question: Who is the oldest living (horse) who won The Kentucky Derby?

05-03-12, 12:00 PM	#61
classicman2 DVD Talk God Join Date: Jun 1999 Posts: 66,868	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond One horse - don't bet on - PP1. If I were a trainer and drew PP1, I would immediately scratch my horse. I like the horses from PP8 thru 16. Those horses can basically choose the route position they take. I like On Fire Baby in the Oaks.

05-04-12, 10:51 AM	#62
Red Dog DVD Talk God Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Directionally Challenged (for DirecTV) Posts: 104,458	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond Besides the Oaks, interested in 2 other races today: the La Troienne and the Alysheba Stakes. La Troienne: Plum Pretty should beat the relatively weak field but St. Johns River (who finished 2nd to Plum Pretty in last year's Oaks) is back after a 9 month layoff. Interested to see what's she's got. The Alysheba has a very good field of older horses. Nates Mineshaft has won 4 straight and has the best BSF on dirt so far this year (113). Successful Dan has also won 4 straight and won the Clark Hdcp at CD last November. Fort Larned was very impressive in his last race - a 108 in the G3 Skip Away. And Mucho Macho Man, who seems to be much improved over his 3yo efforts. __________________ "A question for you. Would you rather Bucknell make the NCAA's once every 20 years or so and get ass raped by teams like Kansas in the first round or have them drop down a rung to a confernce where they can compete for a title?" - Josh Hinkle 1st Round Final Scores: Bucknell 64 Kansas 63 \| Bucknell 59 Arkansas 55

05-04-12, 04:04 PM	#65
Red Dog DVD Talk God Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Directionally Challenged (for DirecTV) Posts: 104,458	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond Pouring at Churchill now. They've postponed the 10th and 11th (Oaks) races by 45 minutes. __________________ "A question for you. Would you rather Bucknell make the NCAA's once every 20 years or so and get ass raped by teams like Kansas in the first round or have them drop down a rung to a confernce where they can compete for a title?" - Josh Hinkle 1st Round Final Scores: Bucknell 64 Kansas 63 \| Bucknell 59 Arkansas 55

05-04-12, 05:27 PM	#66
Red Dog DVD Talk God Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Directionally Challenged (for DirecTV) Posts: 104,458	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond Believe You Can! Way to go Larry Jones! I had her in my Oaks/Derby Double. Lost on my EX box though. Another c-man gem. Keep 'em coming. __________________ "A question for you. Would you rather Bucknell make the NCAA's once every 20 years or so and get ass raped by teams like Kansas in the first round or have them drop down a rung to a confernce where they can compete for a title?" - Josh Hinkle 1st Round Final Scores: Bucknell 64 Kansas 63 \| Bucknell 59 Arkansas 55

05-04-12, 06:00 PM	#67
classicman2 DVD Talk God Join Date: Jun 1999 Posts: 66,868	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond I lost on my bet(s) on the Oaks also. I won one bet today - The Alysheba. You can't lose on a Ken Ramsey turf horse with 'Kitten' in the name, expecially when John Velasquez riding. It't really a bad day when I post the wrong race! It was The Edgewood. Last edited by classicman2; 05-04-12 at 06:17 PM.

05-04-12, 06:07 PM	#68
Red Dog DVD Talk God Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Directionally Challenged (for DirecTV) Posts: 104,458	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond I saw the replay of the Alysheba - that was a good battle between Successful Dan and Fort Larned. Nates Mineshaft was a disapointment. My Believe You Can Derby-double will-pays look sweet. I've got 5 shots at it. __________________ "A question for you. Would you rather Bucknell make the NCAA's once every 20 years or so and get ass raped by teams like Kansas in the first round or have them drop down a rung to a confernce where they can compete for a title?" - Josh Hinkle 1st Round Final Scores: Bucknell 64 Kansas 63 \| Bucknell 59 Arkansas 55

05-04-12, 06:22 PM	#69
classicman2 DVD Talk God Join Date: Jun 1999 Posts: 66,868	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond I wasn't that far off on my 'bet the farm' horse. She did finish 3rd - I think. Baffert didn't have a very good day today.

05-04-12, 06:23 PM	#70
Red Dog DVD Talk God Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Directionally Challenged (for DirecTV) Posts: 104,458	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond No, you were well off. 5th. I had the horse that finished 3rd (Grace Hall) in my EX box with Believe You Can. __________________ "A question for you. Would you rather Bucknell make the NCAA's once every 20 years or so and get ass raped by teams like Kansas in the first round or have them drop down a rung to a confernce where they can compete for a title?" - Josh Hinkle 1st Round Final Scores: Bucknell 64 Kansas 63 \| Bucknell 59 Arkansas 55

05-04-12, 06:24 PM	#71
classicman2 DVD Talk God Join Date: Jun 1999 Posts: 66,868	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond Bet on Optimizer tomorrow. He will wear the Calumet Farm silks.

05-05-12, 08:40 AM	#73
classicman2 DVD Talk God Join Date: Jun 1999 Posts: 66,868	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond I'm going to guess and say it is Alysheba.

05-05-12, 10:49 AM	#74
Maxflier DVD Talk Hall of Fame Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Louisiana Posts: 8,849	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond Alysheba died a few years ago. __________________ My DVD / HD DVD / Blu-Ray Collection My Game Collection XBOX Live Gamertag:Maxflier PSN:Maxflier My Countdown Counting down to: The first Saturday in May. 349 days 11 hours 8 minutes

05-05-12, 01:08 PM	#75
Red Dog DVD Talk God Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Directionally Challenged (for DirecTV) Posts: 104,458	Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond This is a good field in the Churchill D. Sprint. __________________ "A question for you. Would you rather Bucknell make the NCAA's once every 20 years or so and get ass raped by teams like Kansas in the first round or have them drop down a rung to a confernce where they can compete for a title?" - Josh Hinkle 1st Round Final Scores: Bucknell 64 Kansas 63 \| Bucknell 59 Arkansas 55