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Religion, Politics and World Events They make great dinner conversation, don't you think? plus Political Film

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Old 06-22-17, 01:22 PM   #126
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

Why don't you compare discrepancies between the '16 exit polls and actual returns with the discrepancies from '12 or '08 and let us know if there was a major change?
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Old 06-22-17, 01:35 PM   #127
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

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Originally Posted by wendersfan View Post
Why don't you compare discrepancies between the '16 exit polls and actual returns with the discrepancies from '12 or '08 and let us know if there was a major change?
There's another factor at play here. The Democrats were in charge then so the races we are talking about didn't matter like they do today - so they didn't pump a lot of money into them for advertising, canvasing, etc.. Now they are dumping tons of cash into them. Also many Democrats in those areas probably didn't bother going to the polls because without all that advertising and stuff they probably just figured it wasn't going to be close - so why bother showing up?

So I think this actually doesn't have as much to do with anti-Trump feelings like the media would love everyone to believe - and a lot more to do with the the sense of urgency/desperation the Democratic party currently has to try to start rebuilding itself by flipping some seats.
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Old 06-22-17, 03:22 PM   #128
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

Would those results also be explained by people refusing to admit to pollsters that they voted for Trump? I bet he got more of those type of voters than anyone in history.
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Old 06-22-17, 03:28 PM   #129
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

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Would those results also be explained by people refusing to admit to pollsters that they voted for Trump? I bet he got more of those type of voters than anyone in history.
Possibly. But a simpler and more logical explanation (Occam's Razor and all that) would be that pesky little thing known as sampling error.

Again, a comparison with discrepancies from past elections would be fruitful, if anyone cared to put in the work to check that. I certainly don't, at least at the moment.
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Old 06-22-17, 04:47 PM   #130
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

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Originally Posted by wendersfan View Post
Possibly. But a simpler and more logical explanation (Occam's Razor and all that) would be that pesky little thing known as sampling error.
I think Wendersfan is exactly right.
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Old 06-22-17, 04:49 PM   #131
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

Ah yes, the mythical Trump supporter who was energized and enthusiastic enough to leave the house to vote for him, and loved what he stood for and probably watched his rallies- yet wasn't energized enough to actually admit it to anyone in public.

In any case, it probably would be a good idea to hunt down some further data for context.
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Old 06-22-17, 04:58 PM   #132
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

fron electiondefensealliance.org

Quote:
A brief description of the 2004 presidential exit poll discrepancy


The 2004 Edison-Mitofsky national exits polls predicted very different results than the official Presidential election results. Whereas Bush won the official results by 2.5%, the exit polls predicted a Kerry victory nationally by 3% – a 5.5% difference.

In addition, state exit polls predicted a Kerry victory in four states that Bush won – Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada – and a virtually even race in Florida, which Kerry lost officially by 5%. Of these states, the difference between the exit polls and the official results (which we refer to as “exit poll discrepancy” or “red shift”) were statistically significant (beyond the margin of error) only in Ohio and Florida.

In Ohio, Kerry lost officially by 2.5%, while winning the exit poll by 4.2% a difference of 6.7%. Winning either Ohio or Florida would have meant an electoral victory for Kerry. On the other hand, none of the states that Kerry carried in 2004 were predicted in the exit polls for Bush. None of this is controversial or denied by any knowledgeable person.
What we know so far about the 2008 presidential exit poll discrepancy
The Election Defense Alliance (EDA), for which I work as a volunteer, was established shortly after the 2004 Presidential election, partly (or solely) in response to what its founders perceived as a stolen Presidential election. Their perception of a stolen election was based largely (or solely) on the presidential exit poll discrepancy.

Consequently, EDA undertook an effort yesterday to capture exit poll statistics from all major statewide races (President, Senator, and Governor) prior to “adjustment” of the statistics to match the official election results (Once the statistics are “adjusted” to match the official election results they are worthless for the purpose of assessing the exit poll discrepancy because the “adjustment” erases the discrepancy.)

I was assigned three states to monitor and document – Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. In addition, I periodically peeked at some other results of major interest. When very early in the evening I noted large Obama exit poll leads in Virginia and Ohio, a medium sized lead in Indiana and a smaller lead in North Carolina, I was elated, believing that all this signified an almost certain Obama victory – so I posted my opinion on this.

The exit poll information I had at the time was approximately the following:

Indiana: Obama by 5
Virginia: Obama by 9
Ohio: Obama by 8
North Carolina: Obama by 3
Pennsylvania: Obama by 15
Georgia: McCain by 2
National: Obama by 8.3

As it turned out later (which is not surprising), as in 2004, the Democratic Presidential candidate performed substantially better in exit polls than in the official vote count:
Official vote margin and discrepancy between exit poll and official vote count
Indiana: Obama by 1; exit poll discrepancy of 4
Virginia: Obama by 5; exit poll discrepancy of 4
Ohio: Obama by 4; exit poll discrepancy of 4
North Carolina: Obama by 0; exit poll discrepancy of 3
Pennsylvania: Obama by 11; exit poll discrepancy of 4
Georgia: McCain by 5; exit poll discrepancy of 3
National: Obama by 6.1; exit poll discrepancy of 2.2

Most of these exit poll discrepancies are beyond the margin of error or very close to the margin of error. That national exit poll discrepancy, though smaller than the others, is well beyond the margin of error because the sample size is much larger than for the state polls.

What all this means is that, as in 2004, the Democratic candidate performed much better in exit polls than in the official vote count, and the difference was especially large in critical swing states.

Possible reasons for discrepancies between exit polls and official vote counts
When exit polls differ substantially from official election results, there can be only three reasons (or combination thereof):


1. Random error, or chance
2. Biased polls
3. Impaired election integrity


The first step in the assessment of any statistical discrepancy is to assess the role of chance in producing the discrepancy. The likelihood of the discrepancy between the 2004 national exit polls and the 2004 official national results occurring by chance was estimated by Jonathan Simon and Ron Baiman as being close to one in a million.

The original response to the Edison-Miftofsky report by US Count Votes (USCV) estimated that the likelihood of the discrepancy between the combined state exit polls and the official state results occurring by chance was about one in ten million.

A proper combined likelihood of such a large discrepancy in both the national and state polls would multiply those two numbers, to give a result of one in ten trillion.

Although the exact number can be and has been computed in different ways by different investigators, nobody, including Warren Mitofsky, disputed the fact that the likelihood of this discrepancy occurring by chance is so small that it should not even be considered.

In 2008 the exit poll discrepancy was considerably smaller than in 2004, but it was still well outside the margin of error. I won’t calculate an exact number, since we don’t have all the data yet. But it’s safe to say that the difference is very unlikely to be explained by chance alone.

The fact that pre-election polls provided an estimate very similar to the exit polls in 2008 (The Obama lead was a little bit less in the pre-election polls, but it was surging upwards in the last couple of days, so probably the two were about equivalent) makes it even more likely that they were both accurate.

So that leaves two possibilities: Exit poll bias (and pre-election poll bias as well) or impaired election integrity – that is, election fraud.


Then why did Obama win if election fraud was committed?
First of all, let me say that I don’t know for a fact that election fraud is the primary explanation for the exit poll discrepancies, either this year or in 2004. The issue was extensively investigated in 2004, and the results were not fully conclusive either way.

Two possible reasons why the results were not fully conclusive were that:

1) Independent voter activist organizations were not provided access to all of the raw data, and
2) Nobody was provided access to the “proprietary” voting machines.

But let’s assume for a minute that election fraud in general, and programming of electronic voting machines to switch votes to the Republican candidate was the major reason for the exit poll discrepancies in both elections. Why then did Obama win, if the Republicans had the capability of committing that kind of election manipulation?

The answer to that is that their election fraud capabilities are not infinite. Both pre-election polls and exit polls showed Obama winning in 2008 by a much larger margin, especially in critical (and formerly red) swing states, than John Kerry in 2004. Kerry ended up with only one state (Ohio) that was very close and would have given him an electoral victory.

Obama, on the other hand, would have won with any ONE of a number of formerly red states, all which showed him with both exit poll leads and pre-election poll leads or virtual ties (including Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado or Nevada.

So when I saw Obama with huge exit poll leads in VA and OH (of 9 and 8 points respectively) and good leads in NC and IN as well, it seemed highly unlikely to me that such large leads could be overcome with election fraud.

Read more: 2008 and 2004 Presidential Exit Poll Discrepancies Compared | Election Defense Alliance http://electiondefensealliance.org/2...#ixzz4klrFHFpt
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Old 06-22-17, 07:44 PM   #133
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

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Originally Posted by Paul_SD View Post
Ah yes, the mythical Trump supporter who was energized and enthusiastic enough to leave the house to vote for him, and loved what he stood for and probably watched his rallies- yet wasn't energized enough to actually admit it to anyone in public.
Mythical? I thought this was a commonly accepted thing.

The majority of my Trump-supporting friends and co-workers were completely silent or damning of Trump before the election, but then came out with a fiery vengeance after his election.
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Old 06-22-17, 08:03 PM   #134
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

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Originally Posted by Trevor View Post
Mythical? I thought this was a commonly accepted thing.

The majority of my Trump-supporting friends and co-workers were completely silent or damning of Trump before the election, but then came out with a fiery vengeance after his election.
That was my experience as well. Makes a lot more sense than Russian hackers rigging the Electoral College.
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Old 06-22-17, 10:48 PM   #135
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

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Originally Posted by Trevor View Post
Mythical? I thought this was a commonly accepted thing.

The majority of my Trump-supporting friends and co-workers were completely silent or damning of Trump before the election, but then came out with a fiery vengeance after his election.
Mythical not in the sense that they don't exist, but in the belief that their numbers and power are vastly more potent than the actually are.

Quote:
Makes a lot more sense than Russian hackers rigging the Electoral College.
It still perplexes me why this is so hard to believe.

From testimony in front of the Senate Intel Committee just yesterday-

Professor of Computer Science & Engineering at the University of Michigan, and hacker, Dr. J. Alex Halderman

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Old 06-22-17, 10:58 PM   #136
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

also this bit of scuttlebutt

Mueller has Trump solid on 3 impeachable offenses 1) RICO 2) Collusion to fix Election 3) Obstruction

Also (this is not a rumor), 7 presentations before multiple Grand Juries this week- all related to Trump/Russia and possibly GOP/Russia

It sounds like the plan is in fact to take McConnell and Ryan off the board early to pave the way for unobstructed Impeach Hearings
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Old 06-22-17, 11:30 PM   #137
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

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Originally Posted by Paul_SD View Post
also this bit of scuttlebutt

Mueller has Trump solid on 3 impeachable offenses 1) RICO 2) Collusion to fix Election 3) Obstruction

Also (this is not a rumor), 7 presentations before multiple Grand Juries this week- all related to Trump/Russia and possibly GOP/Russia

It sounds like the plan is in fact to take McConnell and Ryan off the board early to pave the way for unobstructed Impeach Hearings
Any links for any of this? Because I don't believe a single bit of it.
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Old 06-23-17, 12:27 AM   #138
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

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Originally Posted by Draven View Post
Any links for any of this? Because I don't believe a single bit of it.
If you're looking for legit sources in a conspiracy thread, you've come to the wrong place!
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Old 06-23-17, 12:46 AM   #139
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

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If you're looking for legit sources in a conspiracy thread, you've come to the wrong place!
Doesn't even have to be legit. I just wondered if there was *A* source.
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Old 06-23-17, 03:59 AM   #140
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

Yeah, I'd really like to know where he's getting this stuff, because it reads like fan-fiction.

Still hoping it's true though, lol
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Old 06-23-17, 04:02 AM   #141
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

Claude Taylor on the first
Puesto Loco (and some others I can't recall atm) on the second,
Loco solo on the last.

Furthermore- 11 GOP Senators + Bernie Sanders and 30 GOP House Reps implicated.
He doesn't specify implicated in what, though I assume it's the taking in, laundering, and dissemination of Russian money via Super PACS. Though In the case of Ryan and McConnell I've heard they are on tape specifically colluding in the election tampering- supplying info on what to hack and where to look for it.
At the same time he says there are 39 others under investigation.

This kind of jibes with what I've heard elsewhere- that we are looking at about 80 eventual arrests/indictments/prosecutions. I don't know if that includes WH players too- but most of those are dirty as well.

PL has mostly been a corroborating source up till now. He claims his sources are pretty high up the food chain. Claude also has multiple sources including, I believe, MSM reporters who can't publish what they know/discover and so slip the info to him to get out.

Last edited by Paul_SD; 06-23-17 at 04:16 AM.
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Old 06-23-17, 04:13 AM   #142
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

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Originally Posted by JTH182 View Post
Yeah, I'd really like to know where he's getting this stuff, because it reads like fan-fiction.
yeah. It really does.

Quote:
FBI official won't say that President Trump is not a Russian agent

Donald Trump's unprecedented actions as president are stacking up daily, but this is a truly new one: A top FBI official will not say whether the president is an "unwitting agent" who aided Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign.

Bill Priestap, the assistant director of the FBI's counterintelligence division, testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee yesterday. He said that Russia “employed a multifaceted approach intended to undermine confidence in our democratic process,” including efforts to “discredit” Hillary Clinton and help elect Trump.

“Did Donald Trump become an unwitting agent of the Russians?” asked Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M.

After a long pause, Priestap said, “I can’t really comment on that."
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Old 06-23-17, 05:30 AM   #143
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

80 eventual arrests?!? Jesus.
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Old 06-23-17, 09:52 AM   #144
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

I'm not getting my hopes up, but it would be glorious to see Ryan, McConnell, Tillerson, Sessions, Bernie, Jared, Ivanka, Junior, and Eric being led away in handcuffs on CNN.

If... very big IF... this is true, it would be the biggest corruption scandal in the history of this nation. The president, the vice president, the president's staff/cabinet, leaders from both houses of congress... it's almost unimaginable.
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Old 06-23-17, 10:12 AM   #145
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

These probably belong in here now?



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Old 06-23-17, 10:24 AM   #146
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

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Originally Posted by Josh-da-man View Post
I'm not getting my hopes up, but it would be glorious to see Ryan, McConnell, Tillerson, Sessions, Bernie, Jared, Ivanka, Junior, and Eric being led away in handcuffs on CNN.

If... very big IF... this is true, it would be the biggest corruption scandal in the history of this nation. The president, the vice president, the president's staff/cabinet, leaders from both houses of congress... it's almost unimaginable.
It's unimaginable because it'll never happen. Even if they are guilty of everything the conspiracy theories say they are (and they're not), there is no one high up enough to execute that kind of raid on people who are also that high up. It's just not going to happen.
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Old 06-23-17, 11:07 AM   #147
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

His cryptic "tick" tweets do usually have a payoff, but they're also met with increasing incredulity, or people just not caring due to there being just so much of this stuff.

Wonder if this stuff would stick if there was a fraction of it instead of so much. Say, the only thing Trump did wrong was being in violation of the emoluments clause, so everyone can just focus on that, instead of a billion different things we have now.
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Old 06-23-17, 11:10 AM   #148
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

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Wonder if this stuff would stick if there was a fraction of it instead of so much. Say, the only thing Trump did wrong was being in violation of the emoluments clause, so everyone can just focus on that, instead of a billion different things we have now.
That's his power. Stuff like Romney's 47% or Clinton's emails or Dean's scream were enough to take them down. Trump does the equivalent on a Tuesday.
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Old 06-23-17, 12:30 PM   #149
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

If 80 high-ranking officials get arrested, I'll eat a shoe.
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Old 06-23-17, 12:39 PM   #150
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re: The Official Trump/Russia Wacky? Conspiracy Thread

I don't know what you consider "high-ranking".

That #, from the way I understand it (and I could be wrong), is comprised mainly of Representatives and to a lesser extent Senators. In that total might also be included 8-10, or more, WH cabinet members and staff (and the Prez and VP of course).

People with 30+ year careers are going down in this.
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