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Religion, Politics and World Events They make great dinner conversation, don't you think? plus Political Film

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Old 04-25-12, 08:27 AM   #26
Tracer Bullet
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

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You don't really understand France's problems, do you? Not only do they not have time to wait until times are booming, but Germany won't allow them to. Nor will the rest of the northern EU. They can't.

You also understand that austerity is going forward regardless of what campaign rhetoric Hollande has uttered, correct? And who would have thought that in a nation where where the public sector accounts for over 50% of GDP and close to 30% of employment, people might get upset if their golden egg is lessened a bit?
While all this may be true, it's irrelevant to the mood of France, and that mood is not very happy. I don't see Merkel losing her austerity buddy and the rest of Europe happily taking marching orders from Germany.
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Old 04-26-12, 06:42 PM   #27
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

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Pharoh isn't right a lot. I respect his opinion on many things, but he's not a great prognosticator.

Thanks. I think.

Somewhat seriously though, I am right a good deal more than not; from African elections to US midterms, my record over the last twelve years is not too shabby. I think it even a bit better when it is about something I actually care about and have put some thought into. Of course, that doesn't happen that much anymore, except about currency. Besides, when you swing a lot, you're going to miss a lot.


As for France, I based my quick quip on Sarkozy trending up and my belief that he would be able to garner the necessary percentage of Le Pen's supports without alienating too much of the center. Though that was before the President pissed off Bayrou.

We'll see what happens when they debate.
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Old 04-26-12, 06:46 PM   #28
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

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While all this may be true, it's irrelevant to the mood of France, and that mood is not very happy. I don't see Merkel losing her austerity buddy and the rest of Europe happily taking marching orders from Germany.
As I alluded to in my other post. People affected, and in France it is many many people, are going to be upset. Of course, the people in Germany aren't going to allow the abandonment of austerity, so it cuts both ways. Sure, a little less austere measures, but as long as the Germans have to prevent France from imploding due to their Spanish and Italian exposure, they are going to get the last word.
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Old 04-26-12, 09:10 PM   #29
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

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As I alluded to in my other post. People affected, and in France it is many many people, are going to be upset. Of course, the people in Germany aren't going to allow the abandonment of austerity, so it cuts both ways. Sure, a little less austere measures, but as long as the Germans have to prevent France from imploding due to their Spanish and Italian exposure, they are going to get the last word.
So in effect Germany becomes the European Union? Why do I feel like I'm living in an alternate history novel?
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Old 04-26-12, 09:20 PM   #30
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

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So in effect Germany becomes the European Union? Why do I feel like I'm living in an alternate history novel?
No, but either Germany and her like minded nations, (Germany is not alone), sets the direction or the union changes into something less. It's not to say that France won't have input, the already mentioned less austere growth measures, but the course isn't going to change. I guess that is the benefit of having money.
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Old 04-26-12, 11:02 PM   #31
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

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So in effect Germany becomes the European Union? Why do I feel like I'm living in an alternate history novel?
Shit, it's not alternate history, just history all over again.
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Old 04-27-12, 08:47 AM   #32
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

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No, but either Germany and her like minded nations, (Germany is not alone), sets the direction or the union changes into something less. It's not to say that France won't have input, the already mentioned less austere growth measures, but the course isn't going to change. I guess that is the benefit of having money.
I thought the benefit of having money was the ability to make it rain in a room full of prostitutes, but what do I know.
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Old 04-27-12, 08:49 AM   #33
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

Oh, and I'll bet on the European Union changing into something else. I fundamentally do not see the Greeks, French, Spanish, et al. taking marching orders from Germany indefinitely.
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Old 04-27-12, 08:53 AM   #34
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

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...people might get upset if their golden egg is lessened a bit?
Wait, simply being employed by the state is a "golden egg?" The hyperbole about public workers is reaching new heights.
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Old 04-27-12, 09:13 AM   #35
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

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Oh, and I'll bet on the European Union changing into something else. I fundamentally do not see the Greeks, French, Spanish, et al. taking marching orders from Germany indefinitely.
I agree, but they will take handouts from Germany as long as they can.
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Old 04-27-12, 08:22 PM   #36
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

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Old 04-27-12, 10:54 PM   #37
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

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I see he's already practicing raising the white part.
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Old 04-29-12, 06:53 PM   #38
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

The Economist is fiscally conservative. I woudn't put too much weight on their take on Hollande which is likely confusing political rhetoric in an election campaign with what will actually happen if he becomes President. But gasp! He's from the Socialist party!...

And FYI, in a country where the "manifestations" (demonstrating in the streets) is almost a national sport, the EU wide protests against austerity measures drew relatively few people in France. Even if Hollande is elected, that should give you a clue as to what the future holds, i.e. as Pharoh suggested, perhaps a little less "austere" but the course will essentially remain the same.
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Old 05-04-12, 11:41 AM   #39
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

Since this is the only European election thread around, I thought I would put in a comment on Greece. Plus, it gives me another opportunity to be wrong.


Unfortunately, it appears a certainty that the golden dawn will take a place in the Greek parliament. I had hoped the voters would come to their senses, but I think not; they may actually surpass 5%. Scary times.


As for France, it looks as Sarkozy has run out of time. He has closed the gap, but not enough. His failure to appease and pull in Bayrou has doomed him. Bayrou, by the way, stated he will be voting for Mr. Hollande.


Also, we will get the results tonight of the London Mayoral elections. I'll go out on a very small limb and say Boris wins again.
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Old 05-04-12, 12:48 PM   #40
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

That will piss off Moose and Squirrel.
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Old 05-06-12, 01:55 PM   #41
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

Exit polls show Hollande the victor.
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Old 05-06-12, 04:24 PM   #42
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

Wow.
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Old 05-06-12, 04:38 PM   #43
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

Sarkozy conceded according to the radio news.
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Of all tyrannies a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victim may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baronís cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated, but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. - C.S. Lewis
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Old 05-06-12, 05:54 PM   #44
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

According Wikipedia's page for Hollande's policies. He sounds amazing. Supports same sex marriage, wants to hire more teachers and improve funding for education, promises to reduce the deficit and by actually doing realistically by raising taxes. He also wants all French troops out of Afghanistan by end of year. These were all campaign promises, but at least they're ones I can agree with.
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Old 05-06-12, 06:10 PM   #45
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

Yes, he has A LOT in common with our President.

What party is he with, again?
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Old 05-06-12, 06:25 PM   #46
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

Hollande has promised hiring 60,000 new teachers, lowering the pension age to 60, no decrease in the size of government, and a 75% tax on the rich.

There is a big difference between Obama and a socialist. The only people who say differently are trying to sell you a bill of goods.
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Old 05-06-12, 07:12 PM   #47
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

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There is a big difference between Obama and a socialist.
Maybe he's just not very good at it.
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Old 05-06-12, 07:19 PM   #48
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

I hope the price of Hollandaise sauces don't go up. That's where I draw the line.
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Old 05-06-12, 07:49 PM   #49
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

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Yes, he has A LOT in common with our President.

What party is he with, again?
If only.
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Old 05-06-12, 08:46 PM   #50
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Re: BTW, there was an election in France this week

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Yes, he has A LOT in common with our President.

What party is he with, again?
Hoh hoh hope and change?
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