Israel and Hamas

[VinVega]

Originally Posted by sracer

What was Hamas' justification for launching rockets into Israel?

I believe it was targeted killings of known Hamas terrorists with blood on their hands, but they may have started firing rockets before that.

[VinVega]

Originally Posted by Stratfor Intelligence Email

Iran's Agenda in the Gaza Offensive

November 16, 2012 | 0034 GMT

To begin to make sense of the escalating conflict in Gaza, we need to go back to the night of Oct. 23 in Khartoum. Around 11 p.m. that night, the Yarmouk weapons facility in the Sudanese capital was attacked, presumably by the Israeli air force. There were indications that Iran had been using this facility to stockpile and possibly assemble weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles, guided anti-tank missiles and long-range Fajr-5 rockets capable of reaching Tel Aviv and Jerusalem from Gaza.

One of the major drivers behind Israel's latest air and assassination campaign is its belief that Hamas has a large cache of long-range Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 rockets in its possession. Israel's primary intent in this military campaign is to deny Hamas the ability to use these rockets or keep them as a constant threat to Israel's population centers. This likely explains why in early October, when short-range rocket attacks from Gaza were still at a low level, Israeli officials began conditioning the public to the idea of an "inevitable" Israeli intervention in Gaza. Israel knew Hamas had these weapons in its possession and that it could require a war to eliminate the Fajr rocket threat. It began with the strike on the facility in Sudan, extended to the assassination of Hamas military commander Ahmad Jabari (the architect of the Fajr rocket program) and now has the potential to develop into an Israeli ground incursion in Gaza.

Analysis

Oct. 23 was not the first time Israel allegedly attacked weapons caches in Sudanese territory that were destined for Gaza. In January 2009, Israel allegedly carried out an airstrike against a weapons convoy northwest of Port Sudan heading to Gaza. The convoy included Fajr-3 rockets and was unusually large, with more than 20 trucks traveling north toward Gaza. The rushed shipment was allegedly arranged by Iran to reinforce Hamas during Operation Cast Lead. Iran was also exposed trying to smuggle weapons to Gaza through the Red Sea.

Though efforts were likely made to conceal the weapons cache at Yarmouk, it obviously did not escape Israeli detection. Hamas therefore took a major risk in smuggling the weapons to Gaza in the first place, perhaps thinking they could get away with it since they have been able to with less sophisticated weapons systems. Before Hamas responded to the Nov. 14 Jabari assassination, there were two major spates of rocket and mortar attacks over the past month. The first was Oct. 8-10 and the second was Oct. 22-24. When the decision was made to carry out these attacks, Hamas may not have known that Israel had detected the long-range Fajrs. Launching Grad and Qassam mortars may have been Hamas' attempt at misleading Israel into thinking that Hamas did not even have the Fajr rockets, because otherwise it would have used them. Hamas may have also erroneously assumed that launching mortars and short-range rockets, as it periodically does when the situation gets tense with Israel, would not lead to a major Israeli response.

By the time Israel attacked the Yarmouk facility, Hamas had to assume that Israel knew of the weapons transfer to Gaza. Hamas then quickly agreed to an Egyptian-mediated ceasefire Oct. 25. When attacks against Israel began picking up again around Nov. 10 -- including an anti-tank attack on an Israeli military jeep claimed by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and several dozen more rocket attacks claimed by Palestinian Islamic Jihad and smaller Salafist-jihadist groups -- Hamas appeared more cautious, calling the main Gaza militant groups together on Nov. 12 to seek out another truce. By then, it was too late. They had already inadvertently provided the Israelis with the justification they needed to get public relations cover for their campaign to destroy Hamas' long-range rocket program.

On Nov. 14, Jabari was assassinated, and Hamas had to work under the assumption that Israel would do whatever it took to launch a comprehensive military campaign to eliminate the Fajr threat. It is at this point that Hamas likely resigned to a "use it or lose it" strategy and launched Fajr rockets toward Tel Aviv, knowing that they would be targeted anyway and potentially using the threat as leverage in an eventual attempt at another truce with Israel. A strong Hamas response would also boost Hamas' credibility among Palestinians. Hamas essentially tried to make the most out of an already difficult situation and will now likely work through Egypt to try to reach a truce to avoid an Israeli ground campaign in Gaza that could further undermine its authority in the territory.

In Tehran, Iranian officials are likely quite content with these developments. Iran needed a distraction from the conflict in Syria. It now has that, at least temporarily. Iran also needed to revise its relationship with Hamas and demonstrate that it retains leverage through militant groups in the Palestinian territories as part of its deterrence strategy against a potential strike on its nuclear program. Hamas decided in the past year that it was better off aligning itself with its ascendant parent organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, than remaining tethered to an ideological rival like Iran that was being put on the defensive in the region. Iran could still capture Hamas' attention through weapons sales, however, and may have even expected that Israel would detect the Fajr shipments.

The result is an Israeli military campaign in Gaza that places Hamas' credibility in question and could create more space for a group like the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which has close ties to Iran. The conflict will also likely create tension in Hamas' relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Jordan and Syria, since the Brotherhood, particularly in Egypt, is not prepared or willing to confront Israel beyond rhetoric and does not want to face the public backlash for not doing enough to defend the Palestinians from Israel Defense Forces. All in all, this may turn out to be a relatively low-cost, high payoff maneuver by Iran.

So there had been rocket attacks before the Israelis did anything, even before they attacked the Sudanese facility.

[CRM114]

Originally Posted by Jaymole

They have every right to do whatever it takes to stop missles being launched into their land. The sad thing is that when they do, people will be further convinced that they are the bad guys.

Proportionality.

[Screwadu]

Originally Posted by CRM114

Proportionality.

So if Hamas sends a missile that kills ten Israelis, and Israel fires back and kills eleven Hamas, Israel owes them one.

There you have it, ladies and gents.

[CRM114]

Originally Posted by classicman2

There is no country, that I can think of, in the world that is surrounded by enemies as Israel is.

I think that would make anyone a little gun shy.

It would make me move.

[Thor Simpson]

Originally Posted by VinVega

but they may have started firing rockets before that.

You mean they stopped at some point?

[CRM114]

Originally Posted by Screwadu

So if Hamas sends a missile that kills ten Israelis, and Israel fires back and kills eleven Hamas, Israel owes them one.

There you have it, ladies and gents.

No, that would be proportional. Now if Israel rolls in and starts laying waste, that is not proportional. Thus, Israel gets a bad rap.

[adamblast]

Originally Posted by CRM114

It would make me move.

Too bad about all that holy land stuff or we could just offer them Florida.

[Navinabob]

Originally Posted by adamblast

Too bad about all that holy land stuff or we could just offer them Florida.

I was thinking Utah. It has the same waste-land feel and it already has a Holy Land history going for it.

[CRM114]

Originally Posted by adamblast

Too bad about all that holy land stuff or we could just offer them Florida.

I was thinking Idaho or Utah myself.

Would've been a smarter move in 1945.

[eXcentris]

Originally Posted by CRM114

No, that would be proportional. Now if Israel rolls in and starts laying waste, that is not proportional. Thus, Israel gets a bad rap.

Israel has already lost the PR war and they haven't even gone into Gaza yet.

[dvdjunkie32]

Originally Posted by Navinabob

Nice, one prediction coming halfway to possibly true jumps you to "true and accurate." Using your logic, does that mean if I dig up one prediction that didn't come true the Bible is false and inaccurate, and would that make you wrong and inconsistent?

It's not just one prediction. It's one of many:

1. Israel would become a nation again in a day.
2. Jews would scatter all over the world, then return to their homeland.
3. Israel would turn a desert wasteland into an agriculture economic bloom
4 Israel would become the focal point in world politics and the catalyst for world war 3.
5. The dead Hebrew language was restored.


I could go on, but let's face it, it really would be pointless.

[CRM114]

Chalk those up to self-fulfilling prophecies.

[Navinabob]

Originally Posted by dvdjunkie32

It's not just one prediction. It's one of many:

1. Israel would become a nation again in a day.
2. Jews would scatter all over the world, then return to their homeland.
3. Israel would turn a desert wasteland into an agriculture economic bloom
4 Israel would become the focal point in world politics and the catalyst for world war 3.
5. The dead Hebrew language was restored.


I could go on, but let's face it, it really would be pointless.

Don't forget Israel will live in peace with its neighbors!

Ezekiel 28:26-24

No longer will the people of Israel have malicious neighbors who are painful briers and sharp thorns. Then they will know that I am the Sovereign LORD. This is what the Sovereign LORD says: When I gather the people of Israel from the nations where they have been scattered, I will show myself holy among them in the sight of the nations. Then they will live in their own land, which I gave to my servant Jacob. They will live there in safety and will build houses and plant vineyards; they will live in safety when I inflict punishment on all their neighbors who maligned them. Then they will know that I am the LORD their God.

Now about that land... where exactly is it?

Exodus 23:31

And I will set thy bounds from the Red sea even unto the sea of the Philistines, and from the desert unto the river: for I will deliver the inhabitants of the land into your hand; and thou shalt drive them out before thee.

Joshua 1:3-5

I will give you every place where you set your foot, as I promised Moses. Your territory will extend from the desert to Lebanon, and from the great river, the Euphrates—all the Hittite country—to the Great Sea on the west. No one will be able to stand up against you all the days of your life. As I was with Moses, so I will be with you; I will never leave you nor forsake you.

You are so outta gas.

[classicman2]

Originally Posted by eXcentris

Israel has already lost the PR war and they haven't even gone into Gaza yet.

I would imagine the Israelis would rather lose the PR war than the military war.

[classicman2]

Are all of the Israelis Jews?

[eXcentris]

Originally Posted by classicman2

I would imagine the Israelis would rather lose the PR war than the military war.

Most analysts disagree. In fact, there's very little the Israelis can gain with a military win, and a heck of a lot to lose. See the last time they went into Gaza (Operation Cast Lead). They might have "won" on paper but the fallout was a disaster. And it would be 10 times worse this time because of the geo-political changes/instability in the region.

[classicman2]

Most analysts are wrong if they believe that.

Israel is surrounded by Arab countries that to see the end of the Jewish State. Now there are Persian Gulf Arab states that don't wish that.

[PopcornTreeCt]

Just read that Israel is up 113 - 3. How much longer do they have to drive up the scoreboard before the game is called?

[TBC]

Originally Posted by PopcornTreeCt

Just read that Israel is up 113 - 3. How much longer do they have to drive up the scoreboard before the game is called?

How about until the other team stops trying to score?

Seriously, Israel isn't the only one who could show some restraint here; why can't Hamas/Islamic Jihad step up and end the rocket launches - not just for a few weeks, but for good?

[Trout]

Originally Posted by TBC

why can't Hamas/Islamic Jihad step up and end the rocket launches - not just for a few weeks, but for good?

Iran wouldn't let them.

[classicman2]

Can we stop this proportional nonsense.

[CRM114]

Originally Posted by classicman2

Can we stop this proportional nonsense.

Because Israel is always right, right?

[DVD Polizei]

Originally Posted by PopcornTreeCt

Just read that Israel is up 113 - 3. How much longer do they have to drive up the scoreboard before the game is called?

Unless you were literally born yesterday, you should know the answer.

This stuff goes on all the time, and especially towards September to the middle of January.

Fighting. Images of Dead People. Fighting. US Prez says something. More fighting. UN says something retarded (as usual). Anti-Israel mothers popping out their future retaliation. Rinse. Repeat. [Insert month and year here]

[DRG]

Originally Posted by adamblast

Too bad about all that holy land stuff or we could just offer them Florida.

How about the Holy Land Experience theme park in Orlando? It's the best of both worlds!!! (Okay, maybe they'd have to lose the daily passion plays...)