BTW, there was an election in France this week

[wendersfan]

I thought someone else might start a thread about it, but I guess you were all too busy having the same arguments for the hundredth time.

Anyway, the French have this weird Presidential election system where there's a first round of voting, then a second-round runoff. In the first round, incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy (Union pour un Mouvement Populaire) received just over 27% of the vote, while François Hollande (Parti Socialiste) got about 29% of the vote. They will compete in the runoff election, to be held May 6. The best showing by any other parties was Front National candidate Marine Le Pen, who received about 18% of the vote.

As one might expect, the economy has been the main issue in the election. Right now Hollande has a small lead in the runoff polling, but the big question is where the far-right Front National will go - obviously immigration is a big issue for them.

[wishbone]

[wishbone]

Sarkozy as Count Chocula?

[Tracer Bullet]

Originally Posted by wendersfan

I thought someone else might start a thread about it, but I guess you were all too busy having the same arguments for the hundredth time.

Internet!

[Tracer Bullet]

Anyway, this is obviously a pivotal election for Europe, as it puts the German/French austerity superteam on notice. If Hollande wins the runoff, the debt crisis in Europe flares up again. Could Merkel be vulnerable? She's already defending her economic policies because of the French election.

[DeputyDave]

What Europe needs now is more successful Socialist policies.

[Tracer Bullet]

Originally Posted by DeputyDave

What Europe needs now is more successful Socialist policies.

Well, this was a fun thread while it lasted.

[DeputyDave]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

Well, this was a fun thread while it lasted.

What did you expect when you start a thread about an election between a socialist and a right wing conservative? Especially considering the economic woes facing Europe right now.

[Tracer Bullet]

Originally Posted by DeputyDave

What did you expect when you start a thread about an election between a socialist and a right wing conservative? Especially considering the economic woes facing Europe right now.

Thought?

[DeputyDave]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

Thought?

Well, the sarcasm was intended and refects what I thought. Most of Europe's problems can be traced back to Socialism. At least I didn't compare him to Count Chocula.

[Tommy Ceez]

Europeans are rejecting Austerity, because they realize that when jobs are scarce, laying off the Public Sector actually means LESS WORK!!!

Who would have thunk it!

[Ky-Fi]

Too long to post, but here's an interesting read on the Muslim perspective of the Muslim/far left electoral alliance:

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/fea...237996351.html

[wendersfan]

Originally Posted by DeputyDave

Most of Europe's problems can be traced back to Socialism.

Not a fan of Tony Judt, I take it?

[kvrdave]

Originally Posted by Tommy Ceez

Europeans are rejecting Austerity, because they realize that when jobs are scarce, laying off the Public Sector actually means LESS WORK!!!

Who would have thunk it!

The problem with that is that if you don't reduce the spending of your government (which is largely salaries) and you are tied to the Euro, you are taking very temporary relief in favor of much bigger problems in the long term....and not really all that long. You can't keep people working with money you don't have forever. Especially when you need money from other people in the European Union.

[Shannon Nutt]

If I were French, I'd reelect Sarkozy for his hot wife alone.

[Tommy Ceez]

Originally Posted by kvrdave

The problem with that is that if you don't reduce the spending of your government (which is largely salaries) and you are tied to the Euro, you are taking very temporary relief in favor of much bigger problems in the long term....and not really all that long. You can't keep people working with money you don't have forever. Especially when you need money from other people in the European Union.

Austerity works when the economy is humming, its retarded when the economy is slow and unemployment is high

[The Bus]

Originally Posted by DeputyDave

What did you expect when you start a thread about an election between a socialist and a right wing conservative? Especially considering the economic woes facing Europe right now.

You forgot Sarkozy.

[Pharoh]

Originally Posted by Tommy Ceez

Austerity works when the economy is humming, its retarded when the economy is slow and unemployment is high

You don't really understand France's problems, do you? Not only do they not have time to wait until times are booming, but Germany won't allow them to. Nor will the rest of the northern EU. They can't.

You also understand that austerity is going forward regardless of what campaign rhetoric Hollande has uttered, correct? And who would have thought that in a nation where where the public sector accounts for over 50% of GDP and close to 30% of employment, people might get upset if their golden egg is lessened a bit?

[Tommy Ceez]

Well, since economists agree on nothing this next statement is meaningless...some that I have read insist that Europes austerity programs are heading them to a deepening recession.

[Pharoh]

Originally Posted by Tommy Ceez

Well, since economists agree on nothing this next statement is meaningless...some that I have read insist that Europes austerity programs are heading them to a deepening recession.

I wouldn't doubt that the austerity will cause some economic worsening. However, the systematic problems that France faces will force them to maintain some type of austerity program; they must cut the public sector. Germany will also force them to keep on track. Of course there remain the breakup of the EU option, I suppose.

[Pharoh]

By the way, Sarkozy will win. Unless I am underestimating Sarkozy fatigue.


And Hollande's ex isn't too shabby looking, especially for her age. Also doesn't hurt that she ran for President in 07.

[kvrdave]

Originally Posted by Tommy Ceez

Well, since economists agree on nothing this next statement is meaningless...some that I have read insist that Europes austerity programs are heading them to a deepening recession.

I think it might well do that. However, I don't think that not having austerity is the key to them getting to a humming economy. And they will never think their economy is good enough for austerity. Plus, they made the choice to be tied to the Euro, so they don't have much choice if they want bailed out.

[eXcentris]

Originally Posted by Pharoh

By the way, Sarkozy will win. Unless I am underestimating Sarkozy fatigue.

1. It was the first time in history that an outgoing president had been beaten by a challenger in the first round.

2. So far, all the polls point to Hollande winning the 2nd round.

"Si dimanche prochain devait se dérouler le second tour de l’élection présidentielle, pour lequel des candidats suivants y aurait-il le plus de chances que vous votiez ?"

(Who would you vote for if the runoff (2nd round) of the Presidential election took place next Sunday?)

Opinion- Way Ifop R BVA CSA Harris Ifop Ipsos Opinion- Way Ifop BVA CSA Harris Ipsos
23-24 avril 22-24 avril 22 avril 22 avril 22 avril 22 avril 22 avril 22 avril 18-20 avril 18-19 avril 18-19 avril 18-19 avril 18-19 avril
François Hollande 54 55 53 56 54 54,5 54 54 54,5 57 57 54 56
Nicolas Sarkozy 46 45 47 44 46 45,5 46 46 45,5 43 43 46 44

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Tommy Ceez

Austerity works when the economy is humming, its retarded when the economy is slow and unemployment is high

Their other choice is to default on their debt.

Besides, their bonds rates are so high, they're junk. So, hey, feel free to help them out by buying some of those bonds

[Tracer Bullet]

Originally Posted by eXcentris

1. It was the first time in history that an outgoing president had been beaten by a challenger in the first round.

2. So far, all the polls point to Hollande winning the 2nd round.

Pharoh isn't right a lot. I respect his opinion on many things, but he's not a great prognosticator.