BTW, there was an election in France this week

[Tracer Bullet]

Originally Posted by Pharoh

You don't really understand France's problems, do you? Not only do they not have time to wait until times are booming, but Germany won't allow them to. Nor will the rest of the northern EU. They can't.

You also understand that austerity is going forward regardless of what campaign rhetoric Hollande has uttered, correct? And who would have thought that in a nation where where the public sector accounts for over 50% of GDP and close to 30% of employment, people might get upset if their golden egg is lessened a bit?

While all this may be true, it's irrelevant to the mood of France, and that mood is not very happy. I don't see Merkel losing her austerity buddy and the rest of Europe happily taking marching orders from Germany.

[Pharoh]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

Pharoh isn't right a lot. I respect his opinion on many things, but he's not a great prognosticator.

Thanks. I think.

Somewhat seriously though, I am right a good deal more than not; from African elections to US midterms, my record over the last twelve years is not too shabby. I think it even a bit better when it is about something I actually care about and have put some thought into. Of course, that doesn't happen that much anymore, except about currency. Besides, when you swing a lot, you're going to miss a lot.


As for France, I based my quick quip on Sarkozy trending up and my belief that he would be able to garner the necessary percentage of Le Pen's supports without alienating too much of the center. Though that was before the President pissed off Bayrou.

We'll see what happens when they debate.

[Pharoh]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

While all this may be true, it's irrelevant to the mood of France, and that mood is not very happy. I don't see Merkel losing her austerity buddy and the rest of Europe happily taking marching orders from Germany.

As I alluded to in my other post. People affected, and in France it is many many people, are going to be upset. Of course, the people in Germany aren't going to allow the abandonment of austerity, so it cuts both ways. Sure, a little less austere measures, but as long as the Germans have to prevent France from imploding due to their Spanish and Italian exposure, they are going to get the last word.

[Tracer Bullet]

Originally Posted by Pharoh

As I alluded to in my other post. People affected, and in France it is many many people, are going to be upset. Of course, the people in Germany aren't going to allow the abandonment of austerity, so it cuts both ways. Sure, a little less austere measures, but as long as the Germans have to prevent France from imploding due to their Spanish and Italian exposure, they are going to get the last word.

So in effect Germany becomes the European Union? Why do I feel like I'm living in an alternate history novel?

[Pharoh]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

So in effect Germany becomes the European Union? Why do I feel like I'm living in an alternate history novel?

No, but either Germany and her like minded nations, (Germany is not alone), sets the direction or the union changes into something less. It's not to say that France won't have input, the already mentioned less austere growth measures, but the course isn't going to change. I guess that is the benefit of having money.

[kvrdave]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

So in effect Germany becomes the European Union? Why do I feel like I'm living in an alternate history novel?

Shit, it's not alternate history, just history all over again.

[Tracer Bullet]

Originally Posted by Pharoh

No, but either Germany and her like minded nations, (Germany is not alone), sets the direction or the union changes into something less. It's not to say that France won't have input, the already mentioned less austere growth measures, but the course isn't going to change. I guess that is the benefit of having money.

I thought the benefit of having money was the ability to make it rain in a room full of prostitutes, but what do I know.

[Tracer Bullet]

Oh, and I'll bet on the European Union changing into something else. I fundamentally do not see the Greeks, French, Spanish, et al. taking marching orders from Germany indefinitely.

[CRM114]

Originally Posted by Pharoh

...people might get upset if their golden egg is lessened a bit?

Wait, simply being employed by the state is a "golden egg?" The hyperbole about public workers is reaching new heights.

[arminius]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

Oh, and I'll bet on the European Union changing into something else. I fundamentally do not see the Greeks, French, Spanish, et al. taking marching orders from Germany indefinitely.

I agree, but they will take handouts from Germany as long as they can.

[The Bus]

[Thor Simpson]

Originally Posted by The Bus

I see he's already practicing raising the white part.

[eXcentris]

The Economist is fiscally conservative. I woudn't put too much weight on their take on Hollande which is likely confusing political rhetoric in an election campaign with what will actually happen if he becomes President. But gasp! He's from the Socialist party!...

And FYI, in a country where the "manifestations" (demonstrating in the streets) is almost a national sport, the EU wide protests against austerity measures drew relatively few people in France. Even if Hollande is elected, that should give you a clue as to what the future holds, i.e. as Pharoh suggested, perhaps a little less "austere" but the course will essentially remain the same.

[Pharoh]

Since this is the only European election thread around, I thought I would put in a comment on Greece. Plus, it gives me another opportunity to be wrong.


Unfortunately, it appears a certainty that the golden dawn will take a place in the Greek parliament. I had hoped the voters would come to their senses, but I think not; they may actually surpass 5%. Scary times.


As for France, it looks as Sarkozy has run out of time. He has closed the gap, but not enough. His failure to appease and pull in Bayrou has doomed him. Bayrou, by the way, stated he will be voting for Mr. Hollande.


Also, we will get the results tonight of the London Mayoral elections. I'll go out on a very small limb and say Boris wins again.

[kvrdave]

That will piss off Moose and Squirrel.

[Nick Danger]

Exit polls show Hollande the victor.

[Thor Simpson]

Wow.

[kvrdave]

Sarkozy conceded according to the radio news.

[PopcornTreeCt]

According Wikipedia's page for Hollande's policies. He sounds amazing. Supports same sex marriage, wants to hire more teachers and improve funding for education, promises to reduce the deficit and by actually doing realistically by raising taxes. He also wants all French troops out of Afghanistan by end of year. These were all campaign promises, but at least they're ones I can agree with.

[Thor Simpson]

Yes, he has A LOT in common with our President.

What party is he with, again?

[Nick Danger]

Hollande has promised hiring 60,000 new teachers, lowering the pension age to 60, no decrease in the size of government, and a 75% tax on the rich.

There is a big difference between Obama and a socialist. The only people who say differently are trying to sell you a bill of goods.

[Thor Simpson]

Originally Posted by Nick Danger

There is a big difference between Obama and a socialist.

Maybe he's just not very good at it.

[DVD Polizei]

I hope the price of Hollandaise sauces don't go up. That's where I draw the line.

[PopcornTreeCt]

Originally Posted by Thor Simpson

Yes, he has A LOT in common with our President.

What party is he with, again?

If only.

[wishbone]

Originally Posted by Thor Simpson

Yes, he has A LOT in common with our President.

What party is he with, again?

Hoh hoh hope and change?