Election Day 2009 Preview

[chowderhead]

Election day is Tuesday Nov. 3. There are two governor's races. Republicans are strongly favored to pick up the Virginia governor's seat along with all the down ballot races with state Attorney General Bob McDonnell.
In New Jersey, Governor Jon Corzine is tied in the polling with former state Attorney General Chris Christie. The race has gotten very nasty and a third party candidate may siphon enough votes to act as a spoiler. Obama is holding rallies for Corzine in the hopes of pushing him over the finish line.

In NY-23, the Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava has dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democratic candidate Bill Owens. A strong third party candidate, Doug Hoffman looks to ride momentum and conservative anger into office.

Maine has a ballot measure on gay marriage.

There is another house race in California but that doesn't look to be as competitive.

THE NRCC and the RNC have now endorsed Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate in NY-23. The Republican candidate has endorsed the Democratic candidate. It's totally wild and the polling is very fluid. It should be an exciting election night.
Here is Dede Scozzafava's endorsement of the Bill Owens, the Democrat. She probably did it because Cuomo or Obama promised her something but it could also be she is pissed off the conservatives slammed her and some of the National Republicans left her for dead.

[X]

Originally Posted by chowderhead

The Republican candidate has endorsed the Democratic candidate.

"It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support," Scozzafava said in a written statement. "Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit."

I thought she dropped out of the race to prevent splitting the vote with Hoffman and thereby allowing the Democrat to win.

[jfoobar]

Originally Posted by chowderhead

In NY-23, the Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava has dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democratic candidate Bill Owens. A strong third party candidate, Doug Hoffman looks to ride momentum and conservative anger into office.

Wow, I had not heard that Scozzafava had dropped out. I came close to posting a thread about that race and how Steele and the RNC had basically turned their collective backs on her (obviously secretly hoping that Hoffman would win) because she had not been viewed as conservative enough.

Keep that steering wheel turned firmly to the right, Republicans. You may very well regret it someday soon. There are millions out there who are socially moderate/liberal but fiscally conservative who are just looking for either party to reach out to them.

[JasonF]

Originally Posted by chowderhead

THE NRCC and the RNC have now endorsed Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate in NY-23. The Republican candidate has endorsed the Democratic candidate. It's totally wild and the polling is very fluid. It should be an exciting election night.
Here is Dede Scozzafava's endorsement of the Bill Owens, the Democrat. She probably did it because Cuomo or Obama promised her something but it could also be she is pissed off the conservatives slammed her and some of the National Republicans left her for dead.

Are a quid pro quo and sour grapes really the only reasons you can think of that Ms. Scozzafava might endorse Mr. Owens? Might she not think Mr. Hoffman is too far to the right for the district? Might she not be concerned about Mr. Armey's dismissal, on behalf of Mr. Hoffman, of the concerns of voters in the district as "parochial"?

[chowderhead]

Originally Posted by JasonF

Are a quid pro quo and sour grapes really the only reasons you can think of that Ms. Scozzafava might endorse Mr. Owens? Might she not think Mr. Hoffman is too far to the right for the district? Might she not be concerned about Mr. Armey's dismissal, on behalf of Mr. Hoffman, of the concerns of voters in the district as "parochial"?

well, the quote X posted was her initial statement which seems pretty neutral and releases her supporters to support whoever they wanted. After having meetings and talking with various Democrats including apparently Sen. Schumer, she decides to release a more definitive letter of support for Owens. Seems pretty close to quid pro quo or sour grapes to me.

[X]

This seems to confirm that a lot of Republicans made the right decision about her.

[TheBigDave]

Originally Posted by X

This seems to confirm that a lot of Republicans made the right decision about her.

No surprise. This wasn't sour grapes. I have no idea how she ended up on the Republican ticket.

[chowderhead]

Originally Posted by TheBigDave

No surprise. This wasn't sour grapes. I have no idea how she ended up on the Republican ticket.

Both Scozzafava and Hoffman submitted to interviews from the local county Republican committees in the area. All the Republican county chairs in the district got together and selected Scozzafava over Hoffman and others. Seems to me, this was a local decision and then national interests/groups got involved. Scozzafava turned out to be a horrible political candidate for many reasons but I thought Republicans were all about local control and local decisions.

[X]

Too bad there wasn't a primary to choose the candidate. The choices of smoke-filled rooms don't always appeal to voters so well.

[JasonF]

What makes you think the voters will prefer Mr. Hoffman? Ms. Scozzafava wasn't particular conservative by national GOP standards, but she was one of the more conservative members of the New York state assembly -- more conservative than the average Republican member of the New York state assembly. Simply put, trying to run Jesse Helms in New York is about as likely to be successful as trying to run Ted Kennedy in Mississippi. It just won't work.

Most of Scozzafava's voters don't like Owens or Hoffman, but they dislike Hoffman more than they dislike Owens.

[X]

Originally Posted by JasonF

What makes you think the voters will prefer Mr. Hoffman?

If you're responding to me, where did I say Hoffman would have been the one who won the primary? A primary would most likely have sorted this out in the first place, whichever one won.

[DeputyDave]

I can't wait to hear the spin if all three races swing towards the Republicans (or Conservatives).

I personally hate the thought that a conservative 3rd part may spring up. If it actually had a chance of being a viable party I would change my mind (I am a conservative, NOT a Republican after all), but all I think it will end up doing is pulling votes from the GOP and costing elections.

What needs to happen is what the ultra leftist, statist liberals did, reform the existing party. More real conservatives need to come forward and drive the GOP as far to the right as that car can go.

[Quack]

I'll be covering the 23rd very closely as I'll be directing the news across all of upstate on election night for my station(s), Capital News 9 and News 10 Now.....long night in store I'm sure!

[JasonF]

Originally Posted by DeputyDave

I can't wait to hear the spin if all three races swing towards the Republicans (or Conservatives).

I'll pre-spin it for you.

In Virginia, the Democrats nominated an idiot. Frankly, I will be shocked if Deeds manages to defeat McDonnell. Which isn't to say McDonnell wouldn't do well against a stronger Democrat -- he might have; I just don't know -- but the fact is, he's had it in the bag for months.

In New Jersey, both Corzine and Christie are less popular than syphillis. Daggett might be a factor, but the bottom line is that New Jerseyians will have to decide whether they hate Corzine enough to take a chance on Christie, who they apparently hate even more.

New York 23 is a mess. Scozzafava would have won easily in a two-candidate race. It's a district that's gone Republican for well over a century, and is what passes for conservative in the northeast. Now that it's Owens and Hoffman, who knows what will happen.

I personally hate the thought that a conservative 3rd part may spring up. If it actually had a chance of being a viable party I would change my mind (I am a conservative, NOT a Republican after all), but all I think it will end up doing is pulling votes from the GOP and costing elections.

What needs to happen is what the ultra leftist, statist liberals did, reform the existing party. More real conservatives need to come forward and drive the GOP as far to the right as that car can go.

Go ahead and do that. Push Charlie Crist out of the party in favor of Marco Rubio, or make Mark Kirk tack so far to the right that his constituents no longer recognize him -- it will make it that much easier for Democrats to pick up those seats. And there's your positive spin on a Hoffman victory in New York 23 -- it reinforces the worst elements of the GOP and encourages the ongoing intraparty civil war.

[kvrdave]

I can't imagine how Corzine could get re-elected. I don't know anything about Christie, but I would rather be in California's fiscal mess than have to live in New Jersey. Don't they have something like a 10% income tax on gross wages and sky high property taxes, and a sales tax to boot? I would think that many middle class people end up paying well over 60% in taxes, social security, medicare, etc. Why would anyone want to live like that?

The only appeal I could ever see with NJ is that they aren't NY and if you wanted a cheaper life, you had to "pay" for it by living in NJ, but I don't think it is cheaper tax wise anymore.

[DeputyDave]

Originally Posted by jfoobar

Keep that steering wheel turned firmly to the right, Republicans. You may very well regret it someday soon. There are millions out there who are socially moderate/liberal but fiscally conservative who are just looking for either party to reach out to them.

I believe the exact opposite. What the party does not need are more moderates. A Republican with true conservative values and beliefs (and most importantly the ability to express them) could electrify the party and draw in voters who were made to realize they really were conservative by Obama, Pelosi, Reid, et all.

The last thing I want is another McCain or Bush. What we need is someone who can inspire like Reagan did:

[DJLinus]

Originally Posted by DeputyDave

I can't wait to hear the spin if all three races swing towards the Republicans (or Conservatives).

The Obama camp already started deflecting any share of the blame for a possible Deeds loss over a week ago:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...l?hpid=topnews

[sracer]

Originally Posted by DeputyDave

I can't wait to hear the spin if all three races swing towards the Republicans (or Conservatives).

I personally hate the thought that a conservative 3rd part may spring up. If it actually had a chance of being a viable party I would change my mind (I am a conservative, NOT a Republican after all), but all I think it will end up doing is pulling votes from the GOP and costing elections.

What needs to happen is what the ultra leftist, statist liberals did, reform the existing party. More real conservatives need to come forward and drive the GOP as far to the right as that car can go.

IMO the only difference between big government liberals and big government conservatives is where and to whom the money goes.

[JOE29]

Originally Posted by kvrdave

I can't imagine how Corzine could get re-elected. I don't know anything about Christie, but I would rather be in California's fiscal mess than have to live in New Jersey. Don't they have something like a 10% income tax on gross wages and sky high property taxes, and a sales tax to boot? I would think that many middle class people end up paying well over 60% in taxes, social security, medicare, etc. Why would anyone want to live like that?

The only appeal I could ever see with NJ is that they aren't NY and if you wanted a cheaper life, you had to "pay" for it by living in NJ, but I don't think it is cheaper tax wise anymore.

I hear you, but a lot of people LIKE higher taxes. They think higher taxes will equal more and better services from the government. I am not one of those who think that but, I have had arguments with other people who think that way. Plus other people will vote D, just because of the D. This is true for a lot of government workers. I think that if Hitler was running for governor under D, they would vote for him because of the D after his name. ( I'm not saying Corzine is Hitler, he's not just to be clear. )

[JasonF]

"Jon Corzine: He's Not Hitler" would have been a hell of a campaign slogan.

[classicman2]

Originally Posted by JOE29

I hear you, but a lot of people LIKE higher taxes. T

I think a lot of people like higher taxes as long as it is somebody else who are paying those higher taxes.

[Red Dog]

Congratulations to Obama, the Democratic Party, and Democrats in general - you've convinced me to vote for a Republican in a general election for the first time since 1997.

I can't wait to see the numbers from the Northern VA suburbs. It should be drastically different than last November. The love affair is over here.

[classicman2]

The 'love affair' seems to be waning in a number of areas.

[X]

Originally Posted by JasonF

"Jon Corzine: He's Not Hitler" would have been a hell of a campaign slogan.

Corzine is pretty much using "Jon Corzine: He's Not Fat" for his slogan.

[chowderhead]

Originally Posted by X

Corzine is pretty much using "Jon Corzine: He's Not Fat" for his slogan.

And Chris Christie is running on he is not Corzine. In the vast majority of elections, you want the election to be about the other guy.