Election Day 2009 Preview

[jfoobar]

Originally Posted by Pharoh

Of relatively recent polling, she had a high of 35% and a low of 20%, with 30% exactly being the last poll I saw.

However, she was under 50% favourable amongst Republicans in her district and was having huge problems raising monies.

A situation documented weeks ago and, by some anyway, largely blamed on lack of support by the RNC and other sources of assistance that would normally be available to the chosen Republican candidate in a Congressional race.

Yeah, she was a doofus of a candidate and probably not a very good independent fund raiser but I also find it difficult to believe that she would not have won with full GOP support.

[crazyronin]

Originally Posted by wmansir

The latest poll I saw had her at %20 and Owens and Hoffman with the margin of each other around 30%, that was just before she dropped. I wouldn't read too much into the race though. The GOP candidate ran a horrible campaign, wasn't selected by the voters and it's a conservative district, so I don't see the events of this race reflecting much on the national party. Sure, you can say the Palin and other conservative endorsements of Hoffman indicate the party is being driven to the right or whatever, but then the DailyKos founder endorsed the GOP candidate over the Dem and then the GOP candidate endorsed the Dem candidate. If anything the endorsements just show how atypical this race is.

Regarding the Maine gay marriage initiative, Question 1. As background, in May the Governor signed a law allowing gay marriage in Maine, this was after several ballot measures narrowly failed over the years. Opponents quickly submitted enough signatures to put a "people's veto" on the ballot and so the law will not go into effect until after the voter's approve it by not passing the veto.

All the major newspapers have opposed the initiative. The anti-GM side has had a large TV campaign that almost exclusively talks about teaching homosexuality/GM in schools. The pro-GM has a counter-campaign that dismisses that as a non-issue and promotes the measure as non-discriminatory. The pro-GM campaign funds are almost twice the anti-GM funds.

Polling is slightly to the anti-GM side, but the major factor in this off-election year will be turn out. I have a feeling it will not pass (which means the law will go into effect), but who really knows what side is more motivated.

The other big init on the ballot is TABOR 2. TABOR (tax payer bill of rights) limits how the state and local gov can increase taxes. It was narrowly defeated in 2006. As in 2006 the opponents of this measure are basically anyone who gets money from the state and they are outspending the TABOR supporters 8 to 1. As with Q1 polls are split and turnout will be the key. I think TABOR probably has a better chance than 2006. The pro-TABOR base is highly motivated and will probably turn out. The huge spending advantage the anti-TABOR side has is more effective with a large turnout.

What's pissing me off even more about local politics is how that fucking cockbiter, Matt Dunlap, thinks he's not obligated to fulfill his Constitutional duties.

You have 30 days to verify signatures, Mr. Secretary. Shit or get off the pot.

[kvrdave]

Originally Posted by jfoobar

A situation documented weeks ago and, by some anyway, largely blamed on lack of support by the RNC and other sources of assistance that would normally be available to the chosen Republican candidate in a Congressional race.

Yeah, she was a doofus of a candidate and probably not a very good independent fund raiser but I also find it difficult to believe that she would not have won with full GOP support.

I haven't followed this at all. Is there any good read about the how/why she was selected? It seems hard to imagine given all that has been said about her.

[Rare Breed22]

Originally Posted by Red Dog

In addition to the Northern VA numbers, I'm curious to see what the black turnout here will be compared to last year. They're likely staying at home in droves.

Actually from some of the reports I've seen, as well as things that I've heard from various blacks who supported him in the last election, the turn out may be quite low. It seems that it's not just white voters who have 'buyers remorse' many black voters also seem to have it as well when it comes to Obama ( mainly due to lack of job creation ).

What's really fascinating is there seems to be a kind of 'quite' backlash against Obama growing among blacks that may very well spill over to the midterm elections in 2010, and grow enough by 2012 ( if the economy remains weak ) that you may see him challenged within his own party.

[Tracer Bullet]

Originally Posted by Rare Breed22

What's really fascinating is there seems to be a kind of 'quite' backlash against Obama growing among blacks that may very well spill over to the midterm elections in 2010, and grow enough by 2012 ( if the economy remains weak ) that you may see him challenged within his own party.

Mmhmm. Yeah. That'll happen.

[JasonF]

Originally Posted by Rare Breed22

What's really fascinating is there seems to be a kind of 'quite' backlash against Obama growing among blacks that may very well spill over to the midterm elections in 2010, and grow enough by 2012 ( if the economy remains weak ) that you may see him challenged within his own party.

That is sheer fantasy. Take a look at the crosstabs on any Obama approval poll that breaks respondents down by race.

Deeds's problem vis-a-vis Obama is that 1) Obama brought many voters to the polls who won't necessarily show up when Obama is not on the ballot, and 2) Deeds hasn't done a very good job of aligning himself with Obama, which makes Obama supporters even less likely to vote for him (other voters may, of course, be more likely to vote for Deeds as a result).

I think the idea that any of tomorrow's races can be read as a referrendum on the Obama administration or a harbinger of 2010 is pretty silly.

[Rare Breed22]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

Mmhmm. Yeah. That'll happen.

I'm not saying it's destined to happen or anything but if job growth is still sluggish by 2012, and say someone with the charisma of a Bill Clinton comes along and looks as if he or 'She' has a shot of winning you may very well see a shift.

Remember it wasn't that long ago that it was believed that the only way a black man could ever get elected president would be if he ran as conservative republican or that no one could ever beat the famous 'Clinton political machine'.

[Red Dog]

Originally Posted by JasonF

I think the idea that any of tomorrow's races can be read as a referrendum on the Obama administration or a harbinger of 2010 is pretty silly.

I think it's pretty silly to believe that it isn't a referendum on Obama in the critical counties I mentioned. Hell, look at me. Your guy and party has pissed me off so much that it's driven me to vote for a Republican which hasn't happened in over a decade. Now he didn't win my vote last year, but neither did his competition.

As for 2010, sure, a lot can happen between now and then, but I guarantee you if Democrats were to sweep these races, there would be a sentiment from folks like yourself that it is a good harbinger.

[kvrdave]

Originally Posted by JasonF

I think the idea that any of tomorrow's races can be read as a referrendum on the Obama administration or a harbinger of 2010 is pretty silly.

Escpecially when it looks like it would not be a good referrendum.

[classicman2]

Originally Posted by JasonF

I think the idea that any of tomorrow's races can be read as a referrendum on the Obama administration or a harbinger of 2010 is pretty silly.

Did you believe the off-year elections held when George W. Bush was president - many won by the Democrats - to be a harbinger?

btw: Red Dog is correct.

[Artman]

I did my moderate voting tonight I just can't be a team player... I cannot convince myself that one party is always right and the other is always wrong. How can anyone think like that?

[jfoobar]

Originally Posted by Artman

I did my moderate voting tonight I just can't be a team player... I cannot convince myself that one party is always right and the other is always wrong. How can anyone think like that?

With these two parties? I would add a few more question marks to the end of your question so as to imply more incredulity.

[JasonF]

I don't think the Democrats are always right. Sometimes they are and sometimes they aren't.

The Republicans, however, are always wrong.

[Venusian]

Voted this morning. Bridge was still out from the floods so I had to drive around a detour. I was the 15th voter about an hour and half into the polls being open. Only mayor and city council seat were on the ballot so I'm guessing a really low turnout

[tcoursen]

I really really hope NJ voters wake up and kick Corzine out of office. He has been such a horrible horrible govenor. Christie will be bad if he wins, but I don't think he will be as bad as Corzine. I just hope in 4 years the state of NJ finally gets somebody they can vote FOR instead of AGAINST, because that seems to be all this election is about.

[Tracer Bullet]

I don't think I'm voting today. I can't take this shit anymore. And the big race here is between an incompetent and a oligarch, and I can't bring myself to vote for either one of them.

America! Fuck yeah!

[Red Dog]

Here's how I'm voting in VA today. Republicans for Gov and Lt Gov. The Democrat for A.G. (I don't want the Republican anywhere near law enforcement, let alone be in charge of it). In my meaningless state rep race (I live in the People's Republic of Arlington), the sure-loser Republican.....seems to have a good libertarian streak. For county board (also meaningless), the Democrat - he graduated from my alma mater. I'll abstain on school board (only one person running anyhow).

I'll bat .600.

[jfoobar]

Originally Posted by Red Dog

The Democrat for A.G. (I don't want the Republican anywhere near law enforcement, let alone be in charge of it).

But Cuccinelli has the FOP endorsement! Didn't you see the trio of stern-looking sheriffs on those TV spots?

Shannon, OTOH, looks like he is 25 (he's actually 38).

[wishbone]

My county only has a referendum to vote on and that is to approve bonds to build a new hospital.

Even if they don’t presume Wishard wants a tax increase, voters still might conclude that they’ll eventually be asked to cover payment on Wishard’s bonds. Cost overruns on recent public projects, such as the Central Library renovation and Lucas Oil Stadium, have soured the mood for further government spending. link

Which is why I voted no but the referendum will likely pass.

[JOE29]

I just voted this morning in NJ. I was voting independant, but then last night it came out that the Democrats were helping the Independant with his campaign, so I switched at the last moment this morning and voted Republican.
I really don't like any of these people but with the Dems helping out the Independant I had to vote the other way.

[Tracer Bullet]

Originally Posted by JOE29

I just voted this morning in NJ. I was voting independant, but then last night it came out that the Democrats were helping the Independant with his campaign, so I switched at the last moment this morning and voted Republican.
I really don't like any of these people but with the Dems helping out the Independant I had to vote the other way.

You should have voted for Gary Stein:

http://wonkette.com/411966/vote-gary...rnor-right-now

[Red Dog]

Originally Posted by jfoobar

But Cuccinelli has the FOP endorsement! Didn't you see the trio of stern-looking sheriffs on those TV spots?

Shannon, OTOH, looks like he is 25 (he's actually 38).

I did see that. Even more motivation to vote against him.

[Brian Shannon]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

I don't think I'm voting today. I can't take this shit anymore. And the big race here is between an incompetent and a oligarch, and I can't bring myself to vote for either one of them.

America! Fuck yeah!

But but but . . . this is what makes America great! It is your civic duty to vote I can't wait to go to the polls and be bombarded with rhetoric, scads of paper litter and signs accusing everyone running of lying and deceit!

And let's make sure we foist our political system on other unsuspecting countries around the globe!

But Cuccinelli has the FOP endorsement! Didn't you see the trio of stern-looking sheriffs on those TV spots?

Those three guys were laughable!





I feel the same way, pathetic waste of time and nothing will be different one day, week or year from now. That includes the signs that will be left to rot all over the county.

[tcoursen]

Originally Posted by JOE29

I just voted this morning in NJ. I was voting independant, but then last night it came out that the Democrats were helping the Independant with his campaign, so I switched at the last moment this morning and voted Republican.
I really don't like any of these people but with the Dems helping out the Independant I had to vote the other way.

I wish that story had come out a week ago rather than last minute. On the radio they were saying it was illegal for one campaign to fund another for the purposes of taking votes away from another candidate, which is exactly what this was. Corzine wasn't getting anywhere with his own adds and on his own record, so he had to fund the ind. candidate Dagget. I believe after the election once more of the final accounting is done on the campaigns more evidence of this is going to come out.

I also don't really like that in NJ this week is the teachers convention, so every teacher is off of work today and able to go vote, and they will all vote for Corzine. Very convient that that is scheduled for election day. The actual convention doesn't start till tomorrow, so why did they need off yesterday and today??????

Finally, they should make it illegal for state workers unions to support and endorse candidates. Private unions, like auto workers, sure fine, but state workers, no way. So he panders to them to get their support, but then when he becomes gov. he is supposed to now switch gears and negotiate their contracts ?????? That should be a conflict of interest shouldn't it be???

[spainlinx0]

Corzine has taken over Hulu. Every show I watch has an anti-Christie ad.