Election Day 2009 Preview

[X]

Originally Posted by chowderhead

And Chris Christie is running on he is not Corzine.

Since it's an election, that seems to be a legitimate issue.

[Brian Shannon]

Glad it is almost here, I can plug my phone back in on Wednesday. I just hope they clean up all the trash on my local roads but history tells me that they wont bother.

[Red Dog]

Originally Posted by chowderhead

And Chris Christie is running on he is not Corzine. In the vast majority of elections, you want the election to be about the other guy.

It's usually a winning strategy if the incumbent isn't all that popular.

[Red Dog]

Originally Posted by Brian Shannon

Glad it is almost here, I can plug my phone back in on Wednesday. I just hope they clean up all the trash on my local roads but history tells me that they wont bother.

It's been insane. I've been getting about 3-4 calls per day over the last couple months. Not that it matters - I never answer my home phone (I should probably just get rid of it). Far more calls than I got last year for a presidential election in a toss-up state.

I wonder if the campaigns have access to past primary elections you cast votes in (not the actual vote, but which primary you voted in)....because if you were to see my profile, you'd think I'm the prototype toss-up independent since I have voted in several GOP primaries and several Democrat primaries over the last decade.

[JasonF]

Originally Posted by classicman2

The 'love affair' seems to be waning in a number of areas.

Particularly in the South. If you look at the crosstabs on these approval polls, the President is relatively unpopular in the South and relatively popular everywhere else -- particularly the Northeast.

It's also worth noting that his "horrific" approval ratings are roughly comparable to the percentage of the popular vote he got.

[Venusian]

Atlanta could possibly (probably) elect their first white mayor in quite some time. Not sure why race should matter but it does to many

[Red Dog]

Originally Posted by Venusian

Atlanta could possibly (probably) elect their first white mayor in quite some time. Not sure why race should matter but it does to many

In addition to the Northern VA numbers, I'm curious to see what the black turnout here will be compared to last year. They're likely staying at home in droves.

[kvrdave]

In WA, our only real issue this year is the "everything but marriage" issue. I expect it will pass.

[classicman2]

The last poll I saw showed that Obama's rating among independents had declined - 45% approved; 47%disapproved.

Some would argue that number was the most important number if the president wants a second term.

Of course, things can (and probably will) change a bunch between now and 2012.

[Artman]

Originally Posted by kvrdave

In WA, our only real issue this year is the "everything but marriage" issue. I expect it will pass.

Yeah, also can't wait to see 1033 go down in flames... King County Exec is a hot one, but I'm in Snohomish...

[JOE29]

Originally Posted by Brian Shannon

Glad it is almost here, I can plug my phone back in on Wednesday. I just hope they clean up all the trash on my local roads but history tells me that they wont bother.

I know. It makes me feel very special to know that they love me so much to call me everyday and stuff my mailbox with their ads.
But then fast forward to Wednesday and it's like- where the hell did everybody go? What did I do that was so wrong for everybody to leave me?

[kvrdave]

Originally Posted by Artman

Yeah, also can't wait to see 1033 go down in flames... King County Exec is a hot one, but I'm in Snohomish...

It probably will, but I'd love to see it pass.

[X]

Latest polling on NY 23...

Polls: Doug Hoffman leads in New York 23

Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has taken the lead over Democrat Bill Owens according to the two most recent public polls in Tuesday’s closely-watched New York special election, continuing his month-long surge in the contentious House contest.

But the polls differ on the size of Hoffman’s lead, and on whether Republican Dede Scozzafava’s endorsement of Owens Sunday could push him over the top in the final 24 hours.

Scozzafava abruptly announced Saturday that she was dropping out of the race and endorsed Owens the next day. The state assemblywoman’s name, however, will remain on the ballot.

A Siena Research Institute poll, conducted on Sunday, shows Hoffman emerging as the frontrunner in the wake of Scozzafava’s withdrawal, but Owens remains within striking distance. Hoffman leads Owens by five points, 41 to 36 percent with six percent going to Scozzafava. But the number of undecided voters doubled from nine percent in last week’s survey to 18 percent, giving Owens the opportunity to win over disaffected Scozzafava supporters.

In Scozzafava’s regional base in St. Lawrence, Jefferson and Lewis counties, where she led in polls throughout the campaign, Hoffman is now tied with Owens at 36 percent, with 19 percent undecided.

“The majority of Scozzafava’s supporters have gone to neither Hoffman nor Owens, but rather into the undecided column, which has doubled since Scozzafava ended her candidacy,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “Whichever campaign succeeds in convincing the undecided voters and then getting them to the polls tomorrow, will likely be looking at a victory tomorrow night.”

Inside the numbers, there’s a lot for Hoffman to be encouraged about. He is the only candidate of the three to have a net favorable rating, with 47 percent of districtwide voters viewing him favorably, while only 33 percent view him unfavorably. For the first time in the Siena poll, Owens has a net unfavorable rating, with 37 percent viewing him favorably and 38 percent unfavorably.

Hoffman, however, has lost ground with independent voters since last week’s Siena survey, and they now favor Owens 43 to 37 percent after leaning towards Hoffman in last week’s survey. But the third-party candidate has consolidated his support among Republicans, winning 63 percent of GOP voters.

A poll released Sunday evening by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling is even more encouraging for Hoffman, showing him with a commanding 17-point lead over Owens, 51 to 34 percent with Scozzafava retaining 13 percent. The poll, which surveyed 1,747 likely voters on October 31 and November 1—the most tumultuous period of the campaign—reported its findings in three stages: before Scozzafava withdrew from the race Saturday, after she withdrew but before she endorsed Owens, and after her Owens endorsement Sunday.

The PPP poll found Owens making up little ground, even after winning Scozzafava’s endorsement. Before she suspended her campaign, Hoffman led Owens by 18 points, and then by 14 points after she threw her support to the Democrat.

According to PPP, Hoffman holds large leads among both Republicans and independents: 71 percent of Republicans are backing him, and he holds a 52 to 30 percent lead over Owens among Independents.

One of the biggest differences between the two polls is the ideological makeup of the respondents. In its screen of likely voters, PPP expects next Tuesday’s electorate will be dominated by conservatives. President Obama only held a 39 percent approval rating among all respondents, with likely voters saying they voted for John McCain 51 to 43 percent. In the 2008 presidential election, Obama won the district with 52 percent of the vote.

By contrast, Obama holds a strong 59 percent districtwide approval rating in the Siena survey, with Republicans giving him a 40 percent approval rating.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29025.html

[Tracer Bullet]

Originally Posted by DeputyDave

I believe the exact opposite. What the party does not need are more moderates. A Republican with true conservative values and beliefs (and most importantly the ability to express them) could electrify the party and draw in voters who were made to realize they really were conservative by Obama, Pelosi, Reid, et all.

Here's a couple questions for you. Can the same kind of Republican win in Mississippi and Massachusetts? Is it a good idea to alienate, abuse, and abandon loyal Republicans like Scozzafava?

I find this all incredibly insane, but the Republicans seem to want to become a rump party of the South, so hey, whatever.

[Dr Mabuse]

Scozzafava being on the ticket was apparently a bit of 'insider' stuff in NY politics.

I've seen a few articles, and opinions, about how that whole thing played out.

Then she comes out and supports the Dem?

Something stinks with that.

[X]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

... loyal Republicans like Scozzafava?

Loyal? Kind of like how Benedict Arnold was loyal?

[Red Dog]

Originally Posted by classicman2

The 'love affair' seems to be waning in a number of areas.

I'll post the results from Loudoun and Prince William counties when they are posted. That's your bellweather. They decide elections in VA. To win a statewide VA election, one must get to 50% in these 2 counties - at least it's been that way in 6 major (Prez/Gov/Sen) statewide elections since 2002. These are basically independents - solidly middle to upper-middle class - generally open-minded on social issues. I tend to think many got caught up in Obamania last year. If they back McDonnell several pts over 50, who's quite conservative socially, that speaks volumes to me.

I'll also post Fairfax County results which is more liberal (but not as liberal as Arlington or Alexandria). If McDonnell does better than 45% there, that would be big. For frame of reference, the best a Republican has done in the previous 6 elections there is Bush-2004 with 46%. It's more liberal now than it was in '04.

[Tracer Bullet]

Originally Posted by X

Loyal? Kind of like how Benedict Arnold was loyal?

Oh come on. Scozzafava's voting record was actually a bit more conservative than other NY Republicans. She certainly was no RINO, at least by the standards of the NY Republican Party (who, lest we forget, initially wanted her to run in the election before the district was targeted for ideological cleansing).

[jfoobar]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

Here's a couple questions for you. Can the same kind of Republican win in Mississippi and Massachusetts? Is it a good idea to alienate, abuse, and abandon loyal Republicans like Scozzafava?

I find this all incredibly insane, but the Republicans seem to want to become a rump party of the South, so hey, whatever.

Bingo. They can try and cash in in the short term on widespread angst over perceptions of how much money the Obama administration is spending and that will undoubtedly bear fruit, in the short term. However, the political ideals represented by people like Hoffman and the teabaggin' "base" do not represent a massive swath of the voting public.

[X]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

Oh come on. Scozzafava's voting record was actually a bit more conservative than other NY Republicans. She certainly was no RINO, at least by the standards of the NY Republican Party (who, lest we forget, initially wanted her to run in the election before the district was targeted for ideological cleansing).

I was referring to how they behaved after things didn't go their way.

I think "loyal" isn't the proper adjective to use for someone who turns that way.

[chowderhead]

Originally Posted by X

Loyal? Kind of like how Benedict Arnold was loyal?

shouldn't National Republicans have supported the Republican on the ticket or kept their mouths shut? It was the local Republican chairs who selected the nominee. Republicans are always talking about local and state control.

Edit: Siena polling has it 41% Hoffman, 36% Owens and 6% Scozzafava with 18% undecided.

[Red Dog]

Originally Posted by X

Loyal? Kind of like how Benedict Arnold was loyal?

[X]

Originally Posted by chowderhead

shouldn't National Republicans have supported the Republican on the ticket or kept their mouths shut? It was the local Republican chairs who selected the nominee.

As I said before, this problem probably wouldn't have been a problem if a primary had decided the nominee.

But I also think many Republicans are finding that supporting Republicans just because they have that label isn't a winning strategy. Many seem to be migrating to choosing candidates based on the candidate's principles which have been found to be sorely lacking in recent Republicans. Maybe that's an effort to scare some principles into currently elected Republicans and get people actually motivated to vote for them.

[Red Dog]

Originally Posted by X

But I also think many Republicans are finding that supporting Republicans just because they have that label isn't a winning strategy. Many seem to be migrating to choosing candidates based on the candidate's principles which have been found to be sorely lacking in recent Republicans. Maybe that's an effort to scare some principles into currently elected Republicans and get people actually motivated to vote for them.

I think "not being the Democrat" is a winning strategy in VA this year. Granted, this is a purple state whereas NY is blue.

[X]

Originally Posted by Red Dog

I think "not being the Democrat" is a winning strategy in VA this year. Granted, this is a purple state whereas NY is blue.

Sounds like there are a lot of regretful voters in VA this year.

Do you know Obama's current approval/disapproval in VA?