The Recession may be over (post #326)- part X

[VinVega]

Previous thread (part 9) - HERE

Continue.

[SuperJim88]

Continue what? Dow is out of the 8000 hole, recession or depression whatever is over. We're all happy and gone with our merry ways.

[kvrdave]

I have heard about several real estate markets where the buyers are out buying in good numbers again. Prices are still significantly lower, but getting people buying is a good thing.

[Ranger]

But it's still expected that there'll be a lot of foreclosures for two more years. Those seem to be slowing down a little, not crazy like last year.

I'm hopeful about the banks getting their act together. I know them cutting limits and raising rates on CC is unpopular, but it's what they need to do to minimize risk and to encourage certain users to pay off their balances and close their cards.

[DVD Polizei]

Originally Posted by kvrdave

I have heard about several real estate markets where the buyers are out buying in good numbers again. Prices are still significantly lower, but getting people buying is a good thing.

But who's buying. Most don't have the money. Most who had money, saw it flushed down the toilet because of their company's aggressive 401k promises.

We see numbers of hope and great news, but what we aren't being told...is just who exactly is buying, and under what credit terms. This information should be published as well, and considering the current times, it should be mandatory.

Just like we saw the DOW plummet so fast, we're seeing it escalate way too fast as well. We're being setup for yet another great fall. And we're also seeing misleading information, once again, telling consumers it's ok to buy...to extend yourself.

[Superboy]

Originally Posted by kvrdave

I have heard about several real estate markets where the buyers are out buying in good numbers again. Prices are still significantly lower, but getting people buying is a good thing.

There have been plenty of buyers, but foreclosures just entail too much risk. Especially in the midwest and detroit.

[al_bundy]

circa 1934

[Brack]

Just 53% Say Capitalism Better Than Socialism

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...than_socialism


Thursday, April 09, 2009

Only 53% of American adults believe capitalism is better than socialism.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 20% disagree and say socialism is better. Twenty-seven percent (27%) are not sure which is better.

Adults under 30 are essentially evenly divided: 37% prefer capitalism, 33% socialism, and 30% are undecided. Thirty-somethings are a bit more supportive of the free-enterprise approach with 49% for capitalism and 26% for socialism. Adults over 40 strongly favor capitalism, and just 13% of those older Americans believe socialism is better.

Investors by a 5-to-1 margin choose capitalism. As for those who do not invest, 40% say capitalism is better while 25% prefer socialism.

There is a partisan gap as well. Republicans - by an 11-to-1 margin - favor capitalism. Democrats are much more closely divided: Just 39% say capitalism is better while 30% prefer socialism. As for those not affiliated with either major political party, 48% say capitalism is best, and 21% opt for socialism.

The question posed by Rasmussen Reports did not define either capitalism or socialism

It is interesting to compare the new results to an earlier survey in which 70% of Americans prefer a free-market economy. The fact that a “free-market economy” attracts substantially more support than “capitalism” may suggest some skepticism about whether capitalism in the United States today relies on free markets.

Other survey data supports that notion. Rather than seeing large corporations as committed to free markets, two-out-of-three Americans believe that big government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors.

Fifteen percent (15%) of Americans say they prefer a government-managed economy, similar to the 20% support for socialism. Just 14% believe the federal government would do a better job running auto companies, and even fewer believe government would do a better job running financial firms.

Most Americans today hold views that can generally be defined as populist while only seven percent (7%) share the elitist views of the Political Class.

[eXcentris]

Originally Posted by Brack

Only 53% of American adults believe capitalism is better than socialism.

Stupid poll...

The question posed by Rasmussen Reports did not define either capitalism or socialis

Rendered even more stupid...

[Brack]

^^^ that's rich.

[kvrdave]

This is kind of hard to understand how the numbers might fall, or what percentage were Democrat, etc. to really skew the numbers. This....

Only 53% of American adults believe capitalism is better than socialism.

makes it hard to understand this....

There is a partisan gap as well. Republicans - by an 11-to-1 margin - favor capitalism. Democrats are much more closely divided: Just 39% say capitalism is better while 30% prefer socialism. As for those not affiliated with either major political party, 48% say capitalism is best, and 21% opt for socialism.

In order to get to just 53% prefering capitalism, you really have to have a small number of Republicans if they are for it 11-1 (or 91%) while Democrats are at 39% and not affiliated are at 48%. Even the other examples they show seem to have it more skewed than the overall finding.

It is interesting to compare the new results to an earlier survey in which 70% of Americans prefer a free-market economy. The fact that a “free-market economy” attracts substantially more support than “capitalism” may suggest some skepticism about whether capitalism in the United States today relies on free markets.

This is interesting. Maybe people think capitalism equals government intervention to bail out private companies? No idea. But it is nice to see that 70% are for free markets. Maybe "capitalism" is just too closely associated with things like "golden parachute" or "greed" or other things and that knocks it down.

Other survey data supports that notion. Rather than seeing large corporations as committed to free markets, two-out-of-three Americans believe that big government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors.

Next time I'll read it all before I wonder out loud.

[kvrdave]

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

But who's buying. Most don't have the money. Most who had money, saw it flushed down the toilet because of their company's aggressive 401k promises.

Not true. Plenty of people have the money. Money that was in 401k's weren't being used for home buying before this, and it isn't where the majority are getting money now.

Most all loans going through right now are FHA, VA, RDA, or other government backed loan programs. Those are still 0-3% down. The foreclosure rate on those is still some of the absolute lowest around. The reason that those are not being foreclosed even though they are low down is because they actually make people prove their income, have standards for credity scores, etc. We didn't get into trouble just because of low down or no down, we got into trouble because banks did not qualify buyers, and lenders did not require buyers to really be qualified. That was the "stated income" crap.

We see numbers of hope and great news, but what we aren't being told...is just who exactly is buying, and under what credit terms. This information should be published as well, and considering the current times, it should be mandatory.

Most I see are first time home buyers. Conventional loans are still really shaky and I would guess that 80% or more are government loan programs. Those are the same credit terms as they have always been. I think you are seeing more scare in this than there is, maybe because you aren't doing it every day.

Just like we saw the DOW plummet so fast, we're seeing it escalate way too fast as well. We're being setup for yet another great fall. And we're also seeing misleading information, once again, telling consumers it's ok to buy...to extend yourself.

Egads, we're telling consumers that it is ok to buy with rates of 4.5% and prices down 20-40% on a 30 year long commitment? We must be mad!!!

Purchase prices in many areas are approaching (or have) prices that equal to or less than renting. That isn't extending yourself. That is just smart. And again, you have to qualify under standard loans that were the staple for decades before the NINJA loans. You have to have certain income to debt ratios. I think you are seeing something much more nefarious than there is.

[wabio]

Originally Posted by kvrdave

Purchase prices in many areas are approaching (or have) prices that equal to or less than renting.

Maybe in your neck of the woods.

[VinVega]

The wabio Economic Threat-O-Meter remains unchanged. Damn it.

[Tracer Bullet]

Originally Posted by kvrdave

Purchase prices in many areas are approaching (or have) prices that equal to or less than renting.

"Many areas" = behind the barn, down the road, across the creek, catty-corner from the post office.

[orangecrush]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

"Many areas" = behind the barn, down the road, across the creek, catty-corner from the post office.

They are that way here (not New York, but not dave country).

[wabio]

Originally Posted by VinVega

The wabio Economic Threat-O-Meter remains unchanged. Damn it.

I won't cave to your pessimism. My economic bellweather is based on actual scientific measurements, not whimsical partiality.

[VinVega]

Originally Posted by wabio

I won't cave to your pessimism. My economic bellweather is based on actual scientific measurements, not whimsical partiality.

[kvrdave]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

"Many areas" = behind the barn, down the road, across the creek, catty-corner from the post office.

My area tends to trail the overall market. We also party like it's 1989. So currently renting is cheaper than buying (but rent is going up quickly and there are no places to rent). But I have heard this on several newscasts. It may not get to a place where monthly rent is less than a mortgage payment, but when considering tax implications, etc. it seems to be changing quite a bit.

Personally, the major reason I would want to buy instead of rent right now (and I love renters) is because I expect some serious inflation to happen. That will eventually translate into rents going up with inflation, while mortgage payments will stay fixed.

Consider if you paid $1 for rent in 1980 and paid $1.40 for your mortgage. By 1990 you you are paying $1.59 for rent (using consumer price index) and still paying $1.40 for mortgage. By 2000 you are paying $2.09 for rent and still paying $1.40 for mortgage. Today, 2009, you would be paying $2.61 for rent or you could still be paying $1.40 for mortgage, and in a year you wouldn't be paying anything.

But most people seem to see their homes and perpetual money moachines and don't strive to pay them off. They continually refinance to use the money for other things.

[Sean O'Hara]

Originally Posted by VinVega

The wabio Economic Threat-O-Meter remains unchanged. Damn it.

Isn't it obvious that wabio is a shill for our running-dog capitalist overlords, and his supposed disaffection with the economy is an act to put us at ease. If he really was what he portrays himself as, he'd be pulling the wheels off the wagon and putting the fear of God into people himself.

[rw2516]

The house across the street from me rents at 4x my mortgage payment. Similiar house, similiar value.

[kvrdave]

Wow. How long have you owned it? I would suspect quite awhile.

[wabio]

Hmmmm. Retail report comes in much lower than expected. Instead of an expected 0.3% increase, it was a 1.1% drop. I wonder what the number would've been excluding auto sales?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090414/..._ec_fi/economy

[Tracer Bullet]

Originally Posted by kvrdave

Personally, the major reason I would want to buy instead of rent right now (and I love renters) is because I expect some serious inflation to happen. That will eventually translate into rents going up with inflation, while mortgage payments will stay fixed.

I'd love to buy right now, except that there's no way I could ever save up 20% for a down payment.

[kvrdave]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

I'd love to buy right now, except that there's no way I could ever save up 20% for a down payment.

Most FHA are still 3% down and those are going through just fine. Easier than the 20% down conventional loans, actually. First time I have see that.