The Recession may be over (post #326)- part X

[Tracer Bullet]

Originally Posted by JasonF

Unemployment and commercial real estate are lagging indicators. I wouldn't expect them to get better at the start of a recovery.

The former hasn't been true for at least the last two recessions.

This entire mess has been papered over with the faith in the federal government. I am happy this is the case, but we are only in a slightly less precarious place than we were last fall.

[GreenEggs248]

First time quoting an artlicle, so please be gentle.

From Yahoo:
"The Federal Reserve delivered a vote of confidence in the U.S. economy Wednesday, saying it would slow the pace of an emergency rescue program as the recession appears to be ending.


The central bank also held a key banking lending rate at a record low near zero and again pledged to keep it there for "an extended period."

In an upgraded assessment, the Fed said the economic barometers since its last meeting in late June suggest that "economic activity is leveling out." Conditions in financial markets also "have improved further."
"

So how does this statement from the Feds compare to Wabio's State of the Economy Meter Rating?

Should I move my money back into the market from under my mattress?

[Dr Mabuse]

$11,718,758,941,630.90

Debt as of today.

[Dr Mabuse]

$11,812,870,150,873.53

Debt as of today.

Funny how fast we can run through ~$100,000,000,000 these days huh?

[mcnabb]

Originally Posted by Dr Mabuse

$11,812,870,150,873.53

Debt as of today.

This was my whole argument against people commending Ted Kennedy or others who served most of their life in Washington, THEY have fucked everything up for the past 40 years!

This debt is going to affect my generation the most (gen-x), as all of these programs will be broke by the time any of us will old enough to use them. We are the first generation who is trying to save for our retirement because we realized that Social Security, Medicare, and other entitlements won't be there when we are 65.

None of these Senators have had the balls to reform these programs, (maybe start by raising the retirment age to 72 since people are living longer and working longer? They have spent, spent, spent, and yet they get lauded for their lifetime service.

[BKenn01]

None of these Senators have had the balls to reform these programs, (maybe start by raising the retirment age to 72 since people are living longer and working longer? They have spent, spent, spent, and yet they get lauded for their lifetime service.

[slop101]

Originally Posted by mcnabb

None of these Senators have had the balls to reform these programs, (maybe start by raising the retirment age to 72 since people are living longer and working longer? They have spent, spent, spent, and yet they get lauded for their lifetime service.

[hal9000]

Originally Posted by GreenEggs248

First time quoting an artlicle, so please be gentle.

From Yahoo:
"The Federal Reserve delivered a vote of confidence in the U.S. economy Wednesday, saying it would slow the pace of an emergency rescue program as the recession appears to be ending.


The central bank also held a key banking lending rate at a record low near zero and again pledged to keep it there for "an extended period."

In an upgraded assessment, the Fed said the economic barometers since its last meeting in late June suggest that "economic activity is leveling out." Conditions in financial markets also "have improved further."

LMFAO, like hell it's ending! As long as the health care debacle continues to raise questions like, how the hell are we going to pay for national health care without completely taxing the shit out of people and in the process forever bankrupting America?

Some examples of our economy not recovering anytime in the next few years:

Foreign oil, for the past few (oh, say 8) years Americans have had to pay substantially more at the pump, having a ripple effect on people's ability to save or spend money on other goods and services. Going forward, for any recovery to happen we need to be paying under $2. a gallon at the pump, minimum.

Another great benefit of oil costing more, the cost of goods increase because the added manufacturing and shipping costs get passed on along to the consumer.

Homes, oh geez, still way overpriced regardless of what the Real Estate/Homebuilding/Banking industry P.R. machine tells you. Ninety percent of Americans don't earn enough to afford the average monthly mortgage payment. And no, just because your paying you mortgage by living paycheck to paycheck doesn't mean you can afford a house. Do you have 6-12 months worth of income saved and liquid should you lose your job in this dismal market? If your answer is no, then you truly can't afford your mortgage.
Read this article to really sober yourself up: http://www.economist.com/displayStor...ry_id=14258851

Banks, meh, they will continue to fail left and right. A average everyday Americans viewpoint? As long as it doesn't effect me... um, I don't really care... Well it does effect you, and you should care, it's your tax dollar going further down the drain that is paying for this bailout, in turn adding to the never ending deficit.

The Auto industry, typically seen as the lifeblood of our Nations economy. We need to sell cars, and lots of 'em. Well, that cash for clunkers bullshit was a wild success! Now what? All those poor people that turned in their clunker for a new car that they couldn't really afford in the first place. That was a brilliant idea, so what if they couldn't really afford a new car, who cares? We'll just deal with the fallout down the road, like everything else. So now that the clunker program has ended, was it enough to get more and more Americans to go out and buy a new car in the next few months... lol, hell NO!

Business: Disney recently changed the way you can pay for an annual pass to the park, why? Because attendance is down and people aren't shelling out for the high cost of a pass, so why not make it seem more affordable by spreading the payment out over a 12 month period... hey, now I can really afford it, thanks Mickey!

Circuit City, (insert name of any recently deceased company here), busto, easy to lay blame at too much competition. Let's face it, they were pretty crappy at what they did... if they were good at it they'd still be around. Walmart Nation here we come, yeah baby!

Airlines: The good 'ol thinly veiled "Seasonal" excuse, yeah, well people are broke so they can't really travel like it's 1999.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_travel/20...lines_schedule

I could continue, but I will stop here, and Bernanke can spin it every God Damned day if he wants... Americans want to hear, they need to be told that the recession has ended, in truth they're just too stupid to look past their own noses to face the facts and see that this bad boy is gonna last a very long, long time.

[wendersfan]

Originally Posted by hal9000

I could continue, but I will stop here, and Bernanke can spin it every God Damned day if he wants...

It's not just Bernanke "spinning" it.

[Tommy Ceez]

Originally Posted by wendersfan

Looks like we're pulling out of the recession.

U.S. economy fares better than expected in latest quarter

Thats a second derivitive green shoot (the rate of change of the rate of change)
We are falling less swiftly so we must be rising!

[Tommy Ceez]

You want good numbers about the economy?

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

BTW, check out thier glossary and comments section
Hysterical and frightening at the same time

[shifrbv]

Originally Posted by hal9000

Bernanke can spin it every God Damned day if he wants... Americans want to hear, they need to be told that the recession has ended, in truth they're just too stupid to look past their own noses to face the facts and see that this bad boy is gonna last a very long, long time.

And will get worse. Once inflation ramps up, the show really gets going.

See gold flirting with $1k. Something wicked this way comes. People want to believe deficits don't matter, until they do...

[nemein]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090903/...lus_fact_check

Seemed the most applicable thread for this w/o starting a new one...

FACT CHECK: Biden ignores problems with stimulus
AP

WASHINGTON – Vice President Joe Biden proclaimed success beyond expectations Thursday for the $787 billion economic stimulus, but his glowing assessment overlooks many of the program's problems, including delays in releasing money, questionable spending priorities and project picks that are under investigation.

In a speech aimed squarely at Republican criticism and public skepticism over the costly program's effectiveness, Biden said accomplishments over the past 100 days provide proof of promises kept when he and President Barack Obama began rolling out the plan earlier this year.

"The Recovery Act is doing more, faster and more efficiently and more effectively than most people expected," he said.

The stimulus program includes tax cuts, billions for Medicaid and unemployment benefits, and a massive federal investment in education, environmental projects, technology and traditional infrastructure work. The administration has struggled to make the case that the huge spending program has delivered real economic recovery at a time when the nation's unemployment rate threatens to top 10 percent.

Biden, Obama's chief stimulus cheerleader, proudly pointed to more than 2,200 highway projects Thursday funded by the program, but didn't mention the growing frustration among contractors that infrastructure money is only trickling out and thus far hasn't delivered the needed boost in jobs.

"It is difficult to understand why more communities aren't moving to put their stimulus funds to work while they are experiencing these kinds of job losses," Stephen E. Sandherr, head of the Associated General Contractors of America, said in a statement this week. "Coping with the red tape required by the stimulus ought to be worth it to help put neighbors and friends back to work."

The problem is with money for building projects, not roads and highways, Sandherr said.

Biden noted 192 airport jobs targeted with stimulus money, but made no reference to the investigation launched after a federal watchdog raised concerns about how the projects were selected.

Transportation Department Inspector General Calvin Scovel said last month he will examine the Federal Aviation Administration's process for selecting programs for the $1.1 billion in grant money. His announcement came after his office discovered that the Obama administration used stimulus money to pay for 50 airport projects that didn't meet the grant criteria and approved projects at four airports with a history of mismanaging federal grants.

And Biden praised the more than 2,400 military construction projects paid for with stimulus money, but ignored the millions of dollars in savings the Defense Department lost because it hasn't competitively bid many of the jobs.

The Defense Department frequently awards no-bid work to small contractors for repairs at military bases under the stimulus, costing taxpayers millions of dollars more than when businesses compete for the work, an Associated Press analysis of 570 such contracts found.

Biden exercised some restraint in his praise for the stimulus' impact. He took a more cautious approach, for example, when asked if his declaration of stimulus success means Americans can now rethink the common view that government is wasteful and inefficient.

"I think it's too early to make that decision, to be very blunt about it," he said.

And Biden didn't attempt to credit the stimulus alone for signs of broad economic recovery, saying it was one of several government actions that are helping.

"Had we done just this and not done the incredibly unpopular thing of bailing out the banks, had we had done this and tried to deal with stabilizing the housing market, had we done only this we would not be where we are," he said.

But most of Biden's remarks focused on what he argued is evidence of success with the stimulus, even if his examples were questionable.

In making the case that the recovery program was not just economically sound but also good policy, Biden noted that transportation money was replacing unsafe bridges.

"It is worthwhile to take some of those 5,000 bridges out there that are ready to collapse, follow what happened in the upper Midwest, and fix them," he said.

But most states are spending stimulus money on bridges that are already in good shape, another AP analysis found. Of the 2,476 bridges scheduled to receive stimulus money so far, nearly half have passed inspections with high marks, according to federal data. Those 1,123 sound bridges received such high inspection ratings that they normally would not qualify for federal bridge money, yet they will share in more than $1.2 billion in stimulus money, the AP analysis published in July found.

The vice president's speech is part of a concerted White House push in advance of the 200th day of the stimulus act on Saturday. Five top administration officials also were speaking about the law's benefits on Thursday in appearances in Arkansas, Virginia, Illinois, California and Minnesota.

(This version CORRECTS 5th paragraph to show concern about broad infrastructure spending.)

[Ranger]

9.7A% unemployment. Things still look bleak.

I read somewhere that consumer spending, which is still tight now, accounts for 70% of the economy. Anybody got a chart on what that has? Cars, food, clothes, etc.

[Pharoh]

Originally Posted by Ranger

9.7A% unemployment. Things still look bleak.

I read somewhere that consumer spending, which is still tight now, accounts for 70% of the economy. Anybody got a chart on what that has? Cars, food, clothes, etc.

Don't feel like a chart, but it is broken down into:

Food: (home and out)
Housing
Transportation
Apparel
Entertainment
Healthcare
Insurance/retirement
Other.

[mcnabb]

Speaking as a small business owner, unemployment will hover around 9-10% all of 2010, IMO. I can only say that we have had such a bad year that even if the economy starts to turn around, it is going to take a good year to dig out and become profitable again. There is no way we are going to hire anyone in the next year simply because of fear of a double dip, and because we lost so much money this year, we are getting by with a smaller workforce.

The dems and the midterm elections in 2010 will be like 1992 when George Bush was running for reelection, the economy will be growing, we will technically be out of a recession, but it will be a jobless recovery, because businesses are ready or able to start hiring again. That wont be good when voters goto the voting booths next November.

[Doctor Gonzo]

From The Telegraph (UK)

"Barack Obama accused of making 'Depression' mistakes"


Barack Obama is committing the same mistakes made by policymakers during the Great Depression, according to a new study endorsed by Nobel laureate James Buchanan.

By Edmund Conway
Published: 9:55PM BST 06 Sep 2009

History repeating itself? President Obama has been accused by some economists of making the same mistakes policymakers in the US made in the Great Depression, which followed the Wall Street crash of 1929,
His policies even have the potential to consign the US to a similar fate as Argentina, which suffered a painful and humiliating slide from first to Third World status last century, the paper says.

There are "troubling similarities" between the US President's actions since taking office and those which in the 1930s sent the US and much of the world spiralling into the worst economic collapse in recorded history, says the new pamphlet, published by the Institute of Economic Affairs.

In particular, the authors, economists Charles Rowley of George Mason University and Nathanael Smith of the Locke Institute, claim that the White House's plans to pour hundreds of billions of dollars of cash into the economy will undermine it in the long run. They say that by employing deficit spending and increased state intervention President Obama will ultimately hamper the long-term growth potential of the US economy and may risk delaying full economic recovery by several years.

The study represents a challenge to the widely held view that Keynesian fiscal policies helped the US recover from the Depression which started in the early 1930s. The authors say: "[Franklin D Roosevelt's] interventionist policies and draconian tax increases delayed full economic recovery by several years by exacerbating a climate of pessimistic expectations that drove down private capital formation and household consumption to unprecedented lows."

Although the authors support the Federal Reserve's moves to slash interest rates to just above zero and embark on quantitative easing, pumping cash directly into the system, they warn that greater intervention could set the US back further. Rowley says: "It is also not impossible that the US will experience the kind of economic collapse from first to Third World status experienced by Argentina under the national-socialist governance of Juan Peron."

The paper, which recommends that the US return to a more laissez-faire economic system rather than intervening further in activity, has been endorsed by Nobel laureate James Buchanan, who said: "We have learned some things from comparable experiences of the 1930s' Great Depression, perhaps enough to reduce the severity of the current contraction. But we have made no progress toward putting limits on political leaders, who act out their natural proclivities without any basic understanding of what makes capitalism work."

[kvrdave]

Originally Posted by mcnabb

Speaking as a small business owner, unemployment will hover around 9-10% all of 2010, IMO. I can only say that we have had such a bad year that even if the economy starts to turn around, it is going to take a good year to dig out and become profitable again. There is no way we are going to hire anyone in the next year simply because of fear of a double dip, and because we lost so much money this year, we are getting by with a smaller workforce.

The dems and the midterm elections in 2010 will be like 1992 when George Bush was running for reelection, the economy will be growing, we will technically be out of a recession, but it will be a jobless recovery, because businesses are ready or able to start hiring again. That wont be good when voters goto the voting booths next November.

I would agree. Plus there is a lot of uncertainty for a business owner right now. What happens if national healthcare passes? What about Cap and Trade? Obama has some serious shit on the table that would make things so much worse, and I don't think businesses will do much until they see some of those things pass or die, simply because the uncertainty sucks.

[Ranger]

I read that September was the month to watch since stocks tend to do poor historically at that time. Another article said that this 'recovery' could be like 1937 with the stock run shaped like a W. So I suppose many are expecting another crash which is why unemployment is still high.

The above report might be critical of the amount of money spent, but despite all the bank failures, the great depression had 50% of banks fail while today it is still less than 1% thanks to an aggressive federal reserve.

[Dr Mabuse]

Originally Posted by Ranger

9.7A% unemployment. Things still look bleak.

I read somewhere that consumer spending, which is still tight now, accounts for 70% of the economy. Anybody got a chart on what that has? Cars, food, clothes, etc.

Actual unemployment is at least 17%.

I understand you wee just using the 'published figures' that the government basically lies about.

[kvrdave]

Even if that is true, it is still a baseline measurement. If unemployment in 1983 was really 20% it doesn't mean anything to us unless we have a common measure, and that is what our unemployment figure is.

I don't care how they figure it, so long as they continue to figure it the same way.

[Sean O'Hara]

Originally Posted by kvrdave

Even if that is true, it is still a baseline measurement. If unemployment in 1983 was really 20% it doesn't mean anything to us unless we have a common measure, and that is what our unemployment figure is.

I don't care how they figure it, so long as they continue to figure it the same way.

Funny you should use 1983 as an example -- that's the year BLS changed how the military is counted towards employment figures.

[kvrdave]

I feel wronged.

Do we have a comparison based on the same measure?

[Dr Mabuse]

Originally Posted by kvrdave

I feel wronged.

Do we have a comparison based on the same measure?

No.

We never have really in the modern age of politics and number shuffling.

[nemein]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090909/..._ge/us_economy

Fed survey shows US recession may be over
AP

WASHINGTON – Economic activity is stabilizing or improving in the vast majority of the country, according to a new government survey, adding to evidence that the worst recession since the 1930s is over.

The Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to grow again in the current quarter.

In the survey released Wednesday, all but one of the Fed's 12 regions indicated that economic activity was "stable," showed "signs of stabilization" or had "firmed." The one exception was the St. Louis region, which continued to report that the pace of decline in economic activity appeared to be "moderating."

Looking ahead, businesses in most Fed regions said they were "cautiously positive" about the economic outlook.

The assessments of businesses on the front lines of the economy was brighter than those they provided for the Fed report in late July. At that time, most regions said the recession was easing its grip and some of them reported signs that activity was leveling off.

In Wednesday's survey, the Dallas region indicated that economic activity had "firmed." The Fed regions of Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Richmond and San Francisco mentioned "signs of improvement." The Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis and New York regions described activity as "stable or showing signs of stabilization."

Analysts predict the economy is growing in the current July-September quarter at anywhere between 3 and 4 percent.

Most of that growth should come from more spending from businesses, which had slashed investments — often by double-digits — during the recession.

Consumer spending, however, is expected to turn up only because of the binge-buying of automobiles generated by the short-lived Cash for Clunkers program. Buyers were given cash rebates to trade in less efficient gas guzzlers.

The Fed's survey found that the majority of regions did report that the government's clunkers program "boosted traffic and sales." But aside from brisk businesses at auto dealerships, other merchants struggled. Consumer spending remained "soft" in most Fed regions.

Manufacturers in most regions, meanwhile, reported "modest" improvements. The San Francisco region said orders rose for semiconductors and other information technology products. Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago and Minneapolis reported increases or planned increases in automobile production. Several regions noted more production for pharmaceutical products.

Although the ailing residential real-estate market is still weak, it also flashed signs of improvements. The Fed regions of Chicago, Richmond, Boston and San Francisco observed an "uptick in sales." Most regions said buyer demand remained stronger at the low end of the housing market, although Philadelphia did note an "upturn in sales at the high end of the market."

The Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Richmond and New York regions credited the first-time home buyer tax incentive with spurring sales. Most regions reported downward pressure on home prices, although Dallas and New York said that prices were "firming."

The commercial real-estate market, however, continued to drag. Demand for space remained weak and construction fell again in all regions.

On the jobs front, employment conditions "remained weak" in all the Fed regions.

The nation's unemployment rate climbed to a 26-year high of 9.7 percent in August. It is expected to top 10 percent this year.

Many economists predict that rising unemployment will keep consumers cautious. For the budding recovery to be durable, businesses will have to step up spending and investment, analysts say.

The Fed's survey found that staffing firms in Atlanta, Dallas, Richmond, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston, New York and Chicago did report a "slight pickup" in demand for temporary workers. That's an encouraging sign because employers will usually boost use of temp workers before they hire new employees.

Still, several regions noted businesses and local governments were imposing wage freezes or cutting compensation in some cases. With the labor market weak, employers aren't expected to be generous with wages, a force that will keep inflation low, the Fed report said. Expectations for a lethargic recovery also likely will prevent companies from jacking up prices, keeping inflation subdued, the report suggested.