The economy theme park thread... featuring the stock market rollercoaster

nemein · 10-10-08, 10:22 AM

continued from The economy and the bailout blah blah blah, part VI

BTW I just sold off Amazon this morning to lock in some profits... if history holds true though expect it to sky rocket here soon

Venusian · 10-10-08, 10:24 AM

I don't think we'll see oil at 40 either. Maybe 60

orangecrush · 10-10-08, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classicman2

Drawback of cheap oil - people forget about a realistic energy policy.

Don't worry. The price of gas and heating oils won't go back down to the same levels it was back when oil was cheap, so people will still want a better energy policy.

achau9598 · 10-10-08, 10:31 AM

anything important coming from the Bush speech?

Pharoh · 10-10-08, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by naitram

lol the only "supply" issue is the amount foreign creditors are willing to keep borrowing to this charade.

So Wednesday's issuances had nothing to do with it? Nothing at all? Flooding the belly matters not at all? And there can't be any other possible causes, such as shorts withdrawing?

I don't rule out some exodus by foreign investors, but there are other possible and plausible reasons for this right now.

By the way, the swap spreads are doing okay right now.

sracer · 10-10-08, 10:34 AM

I know that we're in financial difficulties, but could we buy a vowel please? I'd like to buy an "a" Pat.

VinVega · 10-10-08, 10:36 AM

nemein, you could have at least made this a poll.

Thor Simpson · 10-10-08, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by achau9598

anything important coming from the Bush speech?

I'm pretty sure anything Bush says at this point is ignored by 99% of the populace any way. Clearly he doesn't have anything to contribute to the situation. Might as well head back to Texas now.

Pharoh · 10-10-08, 10:37 AM

Holy shit. Initial price of the LEH CDS @ .0975

Pharoh · 10-10-08, 10:38 AM

Another question for those who advocated doing nothing and letting the chips fall where they may. Are you okay with letting Lehman fail?

Venusian · 10-10-08, 10:42 AM

They fell. Not much we can do now.

I've read stuff that suggested a lot of the pressure on them was people shorting financials which caused many of their ratings to go down to a point where they couldn't afford bonds. You think that has validity? If so, wouldn't the short selling ban help?

al_bundy · 10-10-08, 10:43 AM

people only shorted them because they made stupid financial decisions

i think we're at the point where we need to find a middle ground between letting a bank failing and total socialism of the banking system.

Thor Simpson · 10-10-08, 10:44 AM

I think the short selling restrictions were only on finance companies.

Venusian · 10-10-08, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pharoh

Holy shit. Initial price of the LEH CDS @ .0975

the bonds were trading around .12/$ or something, right? so .10 isn't much of a surprise

nemein · 10-10-08, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sracer

I know that we're in financial difficulties, but could we buy a vowel please? I'd like to buy an "a" Pat.

I have no idea what you're talking about

Quote:

Originally Posted by VinVega

nemein, you could have at least made this a poll.

You're a mod... you could alway add on

VinVega · 10-10-08, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by al_bundy

people only shorted them because they made stupid financial decisions

i think we're at the point where we need to find a middle ground between letting a bank failing and total socialism of the banking system.

This is true, but I think some banks need protection. We can't function as an economy with zero banks. Something has to survive to rise from the ashes after this firestorm blows over.

VinVega · 10-10-08, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nemein

You're a mod... you could alway add on

Don't try throwing facts at me in an argument buster!

Venusian · 10-10-08, 10:52 AM

Bank of the U.S?

VinVega · 10-10-08, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venusian

Bank of the U.S?

Man, that's troubling. Sounds like a third world country.

Pharoh · 10-10-08, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venusian

They fell. Not much we can do now.

I've read stuff that suggested a lot of the pressure on them was people shorting financials which caused many of their ratings to go down to a point where they couldn't afford bonds. You think that has validity? If so, wouldn't the short selling ban help?

I wasn't concerned with why they failed, rather that many advocated doing nothing but we are having the difficulties we now are, of which the market is merely a symptom, due in large part because of Lehman's collapse and the failure of the government to do something to prevent it.

And yes, I think there is some validity to that view, but they would have been on the verge regardless. For the record, I favoured the removal of the ban, but also favour the return of the uptick rule.

Venusian · 10-10-08, 11:02 AM

The problem wasn't LB failure, it was the ridiculous CDS market. If it wasn't LB, it could have been any other big corporation failure that exposed the problem.

Pharoh · 10-10-08, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venusian

the bonds were trading around .12/$ or something, right? so .10 isn't much of a surprise

Not too much of a surprise. Remember I thought it would be around .15, so I am off. (Though we still don't know the final price yet).

The higher the value is set at, the less money that people have to come up with, so while not a surprise it isn't good. At least they can start to come off sheets.

Venusian · 10-10-08, 11:08 AM

But the higher it is priced at, the less money funds and other investors theoretically recoup. Right?

People will know waht they owe so it can come off the sheets...but what is there isn't money to come off the sheets. This debt could theoretically bankrupt even more people/companies, right?

Pharoh · 10-10-08, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venusian

But the higher it is priced at, the less money funds and other investors theoretically recoup. Right?

People will know waht they owe so it can come off the sheets...but what is there isn't money to come off the sheets. This debt could theoretically bankrupt even more people/companies, right?

It is a good possibility that not all holder will be able to cover the difference between the value set today and the par value of the bond. My belief though is that the largest holders of this debt have the capability to make good, and that it has been accounted for already.

kvrdave · 10-10-08, 11:49 AM

I would like to see a poll that asks whether or not people think the market would be worse or better right now if the bailout didn't "save" us.

View Poll Results: It's not a question of if, but rather: How bad the downturn will be?
We will have a mild recession, don't get your panties in a bunch	11	13.75%
We will have a pretty rough recession, worse than after 9/11	47	58.75%
This is going to be as bad if not worse than the Great Depression	19	23.75%
Twikoff was nationalized the other day and I for one am thankful (other)	3	3.75%
Voters: 80. You may not vote on this poll

10-10-08, 10:22 AM	#1
nemein Moderator Join Date: Sep 1999 Location: 1bit away from total disaster Posts: 32,699	The economy theme park thread... featuring the stock market rollercoaster continued from The economy and the bailout blah blah blah, part VI BTW I just sold off Amazon this morning to lock in some profits... if history holds true though expect it to sky rocket here soon __________________ "The American people will never knowingly adopt socialism, but under the name of liberalism, they will adopt every fragment of the socialist program until one day America will be a socialist nation without ever knowing how it happened." -- Norman Thomas, Socialist Party of America "Do the right thing even if it means dying like a dog when no one's there to see you do it." - Vice Admiral James Bond Stockdale My Countdown Counting down to: End of the 5th world age 1125 days 9 hours 3 minutes Last edited by nemein; 10-10-08 at 10:26 AM.

10-10-08, 10:31 AM	#4
achau9598 DVD Talk Ultimate Edition Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Baltimore, MD Posts: 4,419	anything important coming from the Bush speech? __________________ Tyler Perry is the black Uwe Boll - Joe Molotov Xbox 360 Live gamertag: ZombieReign\|\| Wii Friend Code 3594 9793 4462 5322 \| PS3 zombiereign CHANGE - It's what will be left in your pocket

10-10-08, 10:34 AM	#6
sracer DVD Talk Hall of Fame Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Prescott Valley, AZ Posts: 7,675	I know that we're in financial difficulties, but could we buy a vowel please? I'd like to buy an "a" Pat. __________________ tomPerconti - Honored to be trixie's one-and-only-forever guy! "let it be impressed on your mind that God commands you to choose for rulers just men who will rule in the fear of God... If the citizens neglect their duty and place unprincipled men in office, the government will soon be corrupted;" - Noah Webster Zune card:WillysJeepMan \| PSN:WillysJeepMan

10-10-08, 10:36 AM	#7
VinVega Moderator Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Stuck in the middle with you Posts: 21,084	nemein, you could have at least made this a poll. __________________ History is the witness that testifies to the passing of time; it illumines reality, vitalizes memory, provides guidance in daily life and brings us tidings of antiquity. - Cicero

10-10-08, 10:24 AM	#2
Venusian Moderator Join Date: Nov 1999 Posts: 34,633	I don't think we'll see oil at 40 either. Maybe 60

10-10-08, 10:37 AM	#9
Pharoh DVD Talk Legend Join Date: May 2000 Location: Show Me State, indeed Posts: 18,531	Holy shit. Initial price of the LEH CDS @ .0975

10-10-08, 10:38 AM	#10
Pharoh DVD Talk Legend Join Date: May 2000 Location: Show Me State, indeed Posts: 18,531	Another question for those who advocated doing nothing and letting the chips fall where they may. Are you okay with letting Lehman fail?

10-10-08, 10:42 AM	#11
Venusian Moderator Join Date: Nov 1999 Posts: 34,633	They fell. Not much we can do now. I've read stuff that suggested a lot of the pressure on them was people shorting financials which caused many of their ratings to go down to a point where they couldn't afford bonds. You think that has validity? If so, wouldn't the short selling ban help?

10-10-08, 10:43 AM	#12
al_bundy DVD Talk Legend Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Transfatfreeville Posts: 22,210	people only shorted them because they made stupid financial decisions i think we're at the point where we need to find a middle ground between letting a bank failing and total socialism of the banking system.

10-10-08, 10:44 AM	#13
Thor Simpson DVD Talk Hero Join Date: Apr 1999 Location: BWG's Mom Posts: 27,602	I think the short selling restrictions were only on finance companies. __________________ "So they got a warrant and moved in. " - JasonF

10-10-08, 10:52 AM	#18
Venusian Moderator Join Date: Nov 1999 Posts: 34,633	Bank of the U.S?

10-10-08, 11:02 AM	#21
Venusian Moderator Join Date: Nov 1999 Posts: 34,633	The problem wasn't LB failure, it was the ridiculous CDS market. If it wasn't LB, it could have been any other big corporation failure that exposed the problem. Last edited by Venusian; 10-10-08 at 11:07 AM.

10-10-08, 11:08 AM	#23
Venusian Moderator Join Date: Nov 1999 Posts: 34,633	But the higher it is priced at, the less money funds and other investors theoretically recoup. Right? People will know waht they owe so it can come off the sheets...but what is there isn't money to come off the sheets. This debt could theoretically bankrupt even more people/companies, right?

10-10-08, 11:49 AM	#25
kvrdave DVD Talk God Join Date: Aug 1999 Location: Pacific NW Posts: 66,693	I would like to see a poll that asks whether or not people think the market would be worse or better right now if the bailout didn't "save" us. __________________ Of all tyrannies a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victim may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated, but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. - C.S. Lewis