The economy theme park thread... featuring the stock market rollercoaster - Page 3

Venusian · 10-10-08, 01:55 PM

if rates are artificially low, there is more supply of money to lend. there is more competition. the banks need to increase demand by increasing their potential pool of customers

kvrdave · 10-10-08, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venusian

if rates are artificially low, there is more supply of money to lend. there is more competition. the banks need to increase demand by increasing their potential pool of customers

If rates are high then banks need to find a way to capture all the business they can to stay afloat. I've seen bad lending practices in every market.

Venusian · 10-10-08, 02:19 PM

True. I think the other arguement against low rates was that it inflates housing prices

al_bundy · 10-10-08, 02:24 PM

we had a housing bubble in 1987 - 1990 and mortgage rates were like 10% back then

Pharoh · 10-10-08, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pharoh

What will be the ultimate payout be? $50B? Or even much less?

Estimates putting initial total payout amount at $1T.

Remember though, most all of that was hedged with other swaps.

Pharoh · 10-10-08, 02:49 PM

Looks like I will be wrong on oil today. It is making a comeback, down to only 78.35 at the moment.

Venusian · 10-10-08, 02:54 PM

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081010/.../mccain_stocks

A proposal from McCain that actually makes sense. Don't force retirees to sell stock at a certain age

Birrman54 · 10-10-08, 03:00 PM

i'm confused, why is there a law telling people when they MUST sell a stock?

RayChuang · 10-10-08, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by X

With modern transportation it seems to me that a consumption tax would not get revenue from people who could afford to purchase goods outside of the U.S. Say a rich person buys a yacht and registers it in a foreign country. Or buys expensive art. Or even people purchasing goods from foreign sources through the internet.

It seems the model of people going to different states to buy cigarettes would apply here. We would have to have every single item brought into this country inspected, even those that come into private docks. So the heavy burden of the taxes would fall on those who spend most of their money on food, clothes, services, etc.

I highly recommend you read the two books about the FairTax that was published in the past three years (including one published just this year!) that addresses a lot of the concerns you mentioned above. In fact, under FairTax, companies would actually find it more attractive to build their products in the USA thanks to no corporate taxes and taxes on capital gains! It might mean even a C-class Mercedes-Benz or 3-Series BMW ends up being assembled in the USA because it is financially advantageous to do so.

In the end, I support FairTax because it's the only proposed replacement for the current Federal income tax that has been carefully thought out and designed for the maximum benefit of everyone.

Venusian · 10-10-08, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Birrman54

i'm confused, why is there a law telling people when they MUST sell a stock?

I think it has to do with the required distributions after a certain age. i guess so the govt can tax it when it comes out

Pharoh · 10-10-08, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pharoh

So Wednesday's issuances had nothing to do with it? Nothing at all? Flooding the belly matters not at all? And there can't be any other possible causes, such as shorts withdrawing?

I don't rule out some exodus by foreign investors, but there are other possible and plausible reasons for this right now.

By the way, the swap spreads are doing okay right now.

The performance of gold today would seem to back up the above.

Venusian · 10-10-08, 03:24 PM

LB auctions get resolved? The market is rallying

Thor Simpson · 10-10-08, 03:27 PM

The dems are indeed planning another stimuls package, estimated at $150 billion. (CNN)

Have they completely lost all sanity? When does China run out of money to lend us?

Pharoh · 10-10-08, 03:29 PM

A few things to look out for before Monday:

-Specifics being given on the Fed's plan to directly capitalise the banks, (yeah!), and announcement of implementation. (Sooner rather than later, hopefully).

-Guarantee of interbank loans. (A must, in my opinion). Look for this out of the G7 meeting.

-Automatic circuit breakers for individual stocks, rather than the return of the uptick rule.

-Possible backstop of all deposits?

-Goldman or Morgan first to be partially capitalised and/or partially nationalised?

kvrdave · 10-10-08, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venusian

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081010/.../mccain_stocks

A proposal from McCain that actually makes sense. Don't force retirees to sell stock at a certain age

I think they can move stocks (without selling them) from their IRA to a regular investment account at the same brokerage already, though.

I know that when I rolled over my SEP into my ROTH, I didn't have to sell them, I just moved my positions into another account.

Venusian · 10-10-08, 03:31 PM

are GS or MS really in that much trouble? Didn't they both report good earning last quarter?

Backstop of all deposits? really??? can we afford this?

Pharoh · 10-10-08, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venusian

are GS or MS really in that much trouble? Didn't they both report good earning last quarter?

Yes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venusian

of all deposits? really??? can we afford this?

I don't know. However, I meant globally. It is being discussed. How seriously, I can not say.

Venusian · 10-10-08, 03:34 PM

Germany, Iceland (domesitcally) and Ireland already have, right?

Japan is going to suggest some kind of international bailout or something at the G7

Pharoh · 10-10-08, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venusian

LB auctions get resolved? The market is rallying

I think it has more to do with the hoped for announcements out of the G7 meeting. But the price setting sure doesn't hurt.

orangecrush · 10-10-08, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thor Simpson

The dems are indeed planning another stimuls package, estimated at $150 billion. (CNN)

Have they completely lost all sanity? When does China run out of money to lend us?

It is all just numbers on a computer screen

Pharoh · 10-10-08, 03:38 PM

And the rally kills my oil call. Back over 80 now.

kvrdave · 10-10-08, 03:42 PM

Wait. We had a false rally late yesterday as well.

Venusian · 10-10-08, 03:42 PM

rally ended...or did it?

VinVega · 10-10-08, 03:49 PM

The roller coaster continues. The emotions must be running hot on that trading floor.

nemein · 10-10-08, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nemein

BTW I just sold off Amazon this morning to lock in some profits... if history holds true though expect it to sky rocket here soon

Not exactly sky rocketted but up 4%

Knew I shouldn't have sold off

This is why I stopped trying to "game" the market...

View Poll Results: It's not a question of if, but rather: How bad the downturn will be?
We will have a mild recession, don't get your panties in a bunch	11	13.75%
We will have a pretty rough recession, worse than after 9/11	47	58.75%
This is going to be as bad if not worse than the Great Depression	19	23.75%
Twikoff was nationalized the other day and I for one am thankful (other)	3	3.75%
Voters: 80. You may not vote on this poll

10-10-08, 03:27 PM	#63
Thor Simpson DVD Talk Hero Join Date: Apr 1999 Location: BWG's Mom Posts: 27,602	The dems are indeed planning another stimuls package, estimated at $150 billion. (CNN) Have they completely lost all sanity? When does China run out of money to lend us? __________________ "So they got a warrant and moved in. " - JasonF

10-10-08, 03:42 PM	#72
kvrdave DVD Talk God Join Date: Aug 1999 Location: Pacific NW Posts: 66,694	Wait. We had a false rally late yesterday as well. __________________ Of all tyrannies a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victim may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated, but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. - C.S. Lewis

10-10-08, 03:49 PM	#74
VinVega Moderator Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Stuck in the middle with you Posts: 21,084	The roller coaster continues. The emotions must be running hot on that trading floor. __________________ History is the witness that testifies to the passing of time; it illumines reality, vitalizes memory, provides guidance in daily life and brings us tidings of antiquity. - Cicero

10-10-08, 01:55 PM	#51
Venusian Moderator Join Date: Nov 1999 Posts: 34,634	if rates are artificially low, there is more supply of money to lend. there is more competition. the banks need to increase demand by increasing their potential pool of customers

10-10-08, 02:19 PM	#53
Venusian Moderator Join Date: Nov 1999 Posts: 34,634	True. I think the other arguement against low rates was that it inflates housing prices

10-10-08, 02:24 PM	#54
al_bundy DVD Talk Legend Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Transfatfreeville Posts: 22,214	we had a housing bubble in 1987 - 1990 and mortgage rates were like 10% back then

10-10-08, 02:49 PM	#56
Pharoh DVD Talk Legend Join Date: May 2000 Location: Show Me State, indeed Posts: 18,531	Looks like I will be wrong on oil today. It is making a comeback, down to only 78.35 at the moment.

10-10-08, 02:54 PM	#57
Venusian Moderator Join Date: Nov 1999 Posts: 34,634	http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081010/.../mccain_stocks A proposal from McCain that actually makes sense. Don't force retirees to sell stock at a certain age

10-10-08, 03:00 PM	#58
Birrman54 DVD Talk Gold Edition Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Hoboken, NJ Posts: 2,934	i'm confused, why is there a law telling people when they MUST sell a stock?

10-10-08, 03:24 PM	#62
Venusian Moderator Join Date: Nov 1999 Posts: 34,634	LB auctions get resolved? The market is rallying

10-10-08, 03:29 PM	#64
Pharoh DVD Talk Legend Join Date: May 2000 Location: Show Me State, indeed Posts: 18,531	A few things to look out for before Monday: -Specifics being given on the Fed's plan to directly capitalise the banks, (yeah!), and announcement of implementation. (Sooner rather than later, hopefully). -Guarantee of interbank loans. (A must, in my opinion). Look for this out of the G7 meeting. -Automatic circuit breakers for individual stocks, rather than the return of the uptick rule. -Possible backstop of all deposits? -Goldman or Morgan first to be partially capitalised and/or partially nationalised?

10-10-08, 03:31 PM	#66
Venusian Moderator Join Date: Nov 1999 Posts: 34,634	are GS or MS really in that much trouble? Didn't they both report good earning last quarter? Backstop of all deposits? really??? can we afford this?

10-10-08, 03:34 PM	#68
Venusian Moderator Join Date: Nov 1999 Posts: 34,634	Germany, Iceland (domesitcally) and Ireland already have, right? Japan is going to suggest some kind of international bailout or something at the G7

10-10-08, 03:38 PM	#71
Pharoh DVD Talk Legend Join Date: May 2000 Location: Show Me State, indeed Posts: 18,531	And the rally kills my oil call. Back over 80 now.