The economy theme park thread... featuring the stock market rollercoaster

[Dr Mabuse]

Yes it is.

Except, as I stated, Krugman endorses and defends "Comparative Advantage". I got that term FROM Krugman's writings, I don't call it "Comparative Advantage", Krugman does. He espouses Ricardian models of trade. I also got that from Krugman's writings. So it was lucid and elegant and etc., but not exactly accurate.

And maybe one of you fellas will eventually answer a simple question.

How the largest trade deficit in the history of the world is a good thing for this economy, one that will be larger next year? EXACTLY how that is a good thing, try not to deflect away from a question you can't/won't answer, yet again, with elegant economic theories or something. And how is 10+ trillion dollars in debt, that will grow in the next year, creating a healthy economy and nation?

How do those thing spell good times ahead for the US economy and nation?

Because my simple point has been those two things alone spell bad times ahead for us, guaranteed. Not even including the other problems of greed, fraud, and corruption we are having domestically.

[Tracer Bullet]

This thread is making me feel stupid.

[Tommy Ceez]

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet

This thread is making me feel stupid.

Or bad at Google

[DVD Polizei]

I feel like I'm in college again.

But without the hot chicks.

[starman9000]

Originally Posted by Dr Mabuse

And maybe one of you fellas will eventually answer a simple question.

How the largest trade deficit in the history of the world is a good thing for this economy, one that will be larger next year? EXACTLY how that is a good thing, try not to deflect away from a question you can't/won't answer, yet again, with elegant economic theories or something. And how is 10+ trillion dollars in debt, that will grow in the next year, creating a healthy economy and nation?

How do those thing spell good times ahead for the US economy and nation?

Because my simple point has been those two things alone spell bad times ahead for us, guaranteed. Not even including the other problems of greed, fraud, and corruption we are having domestically.

I heard you have to spend money to make money. We've been spending money for a long time, so we have to start making money at some point right?

[Venusian]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/op...ml?ref=opinion

Buffet says buy stocks

[Dr Mabuse]

Originally Posted by Venusian

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/op...ml?ref=opinion

Buffet says buy stocks

He's buying personally, not with Berkshire Hathaway accounts.

That's kind of important don't you think?

This is more of a 'good will' gesture than actual investing advice I think.

[wabio]

Pharoh's talk of deflation in a nutshell.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/17/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes

[VinVega]

Originally Posted by wabio

Pharoh's talk of deflation in a nutshell.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/17/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes

Prior to this, weren't we in a pretty bad inflation trend? Prices were rising so much, but wages were remaining stagnant. That's a trend that just can't continue for a sustained period of time.

[orangecrush]

Originally Posted by Dr Mabuse

He's buying personally, not with Berkshire Hathaway accounts.

That's kind of important don't you think?

This is more of a 'good will' gesture than actual investing advice I think.

Buffet has always been a fan on the long term health of the US economy and stock market.

[wabio]

Originally Posted by taa455

I wish I could tell you, but I don't know. It's a Whirlpool so at least it is an American company.

You should've bought sooner!

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/17/news...ion=2008101711

[wabio]

Mortgage fraud. The new and improved versions:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/17/real...ion=2008101711

[wabio]

Consumer sentiment went way WAY down this month. If you've ever followed the Michigan survey, you'd know that a 13 point drop is huge. HUGE. It just seemed like yesterday when it was in the high 90's.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081017/...nomy_sentiment

[taa455]

I expected as much. People are freaking out after the solid week of drastic market losses. This whole shitty situation feeds on itself.

[al_bundy]

Originally Posted by orangecrush18

Buffet has always been a fan on the long term health of the US economy and stock market.

i signed up for two newsletters this week mostly for short term trading signals, but they do some long term forecasting as well. i've followed these people for a year or so reading their free stuff that was always a few days to a week after the paid subscribers got it and less detail. they were always on target with their predictions.

for the long term they are predicting the final lows will be 3000 for the Dow, 400 for the SP500 and not sure for the Nasdaq. can't remember.

SP500 will go to 780 - 800 level sometime next week or early week after next and then a nice rally for a few months and next year will be brutal.

will be interesting to compare Buffet's results to these

[Ranger]

Did they explain why next year was going to be brutal?

[wabio]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

for the long term they are predicting the final lows will be 3000 for the Dow

That's unbelievable! Heaven help us.....errrr....the retirees if that actually occurs.

[al_bundy]

most of their predictions are based on technical market readings, but they do some fundamental work as well.

deflation, lack of credit, low commodity prices, lack of financial earnings, deleveraging, mutual fund inflows dropping and even late last year being less than the 2000 peak, people not wanting to own stocks as fear sets in, hedge fund liquidations

[al_bundy]

Originally Posted by wabio

That's unbelievable! Heaven help us.....errrr....the retirees if that actually occurs.

this is not scientific, but i think the market tanks every time a generation starts to retire.

around 1940 the Greatest Generation is around 20 so call it around 35 for their parents. fast forward around 30 years and they are around 65 and we get a 14 year bear market from 1968 - 1982.

these numbers are just pie in the sky predictions now. you can make a technical case for the SP500 to end anywhere 400 - 700 next year. these people are pretty bearish in their predictions and have been for years.

deflation will be interesting this time if it really happens. you can't compare now to the 1970's because back then the boomers were only entering the workforce and starting their spending. in the past deflation meant asset and commodity price drops. when the USA was 90% agriculutural that was pretty bad. now that we are 65% service based it's interesting to see what will happen.

[wabio]

John Stossel on 20/20 (ABC) right now talking about the bailout.

[wabio]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

deflation will be interesting this time if it really happens. you can't compare now to the 1970's because back then the boomers were only entering the workforce and starting their spending. in the past deflation meant asset and commodity price drops. when the USA was 90% agriculutural that was pretty bad. now that we are 65% service based it's interesting to see what will happen.

Scary to think that the first baby boomer retired only this year. We've got a mountain of a problem coming at us full steam.

[Breakfast with Girls]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

for the long term they are predicting the final lows will be 3000 for the Dow, 400 for the SP500 and not sure for the Nasdaq. can't remember.

Probably 500, given the other predictions. Seems like they believe things will fall to '91-era levels.

[DVD Polizei]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

this is not scientific, but i think the market tanks every time a generation starts to retire.

around 1940 the Greatest Generation is around 20 so call it around 35 for their parents. fast forward around 30 years and they are around 65 and we get a 14 year bear market from 1968 - 1982.

these numbers are just pie in the sky predictions now. you can make a technical case for the SP500 to end anywhere 400 - 700 next year. these people are pretty bearish in their predictions and have been for years.

deflation will be interesting this time if it really happens. you can't compare now to the 1970's because back then the boomers were only entering the workforce and starting their spending. in the past deflation meant asset and commodity price drops. when the USA was 90% agriculutural that was pretty bad. now that we are 65% service based it's interesting to see what will happen.

I have to wonder if spending so much money on foreign waste ever since 2003, instead of using the money for more regulation on KNOWN TROUBLED MARKETS would have been better spent.

It's really getting irritating how much our government is just seemingly oblivious to reality these days. Why the fuck even have a government if it can't stop the major problems before they happen. Examples? Oh, I dunno. 9/11. Economy 2008. Those two come to mind.

[Pharoh]

October 28th is the next date. Actually the 27th, but the following day will really be the tell.

[DVD Polizei]

I think the markets will fall, but not to 3000. I'm thinking maybe 6000. Like I've said before, consumers can pick up the economy by the straps, but we need the opportunity. Low gas prices are a good start--however I fear Q1 2009 is going to be up near 100's for oil again.

I wouldn't be surprised if we have a fairly good holiday season. Retailers won't be making shitgobs of money, but then again, consumers aren't making shitgobs of money, so there will be a compromise. But this is better than nothing at all.