RoboDad

Are we relying on anecdotal evidence, then?

OK, at my completely packed, opening night screening in IMAX 3D (can you get a more uber-geek crowd than IMAX 3D for this movie?), there was no reaction at all to the TDKR trailer. Some people talked through it, and no one applauded. I would say there was more quite a bit more crowd reaction to the Prometheus and Spider-Man trailers than to TDKR.

Defiant1

Suddenly my prediction for The Avengers to make $300M domestic seems a bit low. Maybe $420M now?

Supermallet

I wasn't saying my screening was evidence that TDKR was going to be bigger than The Avengers, I was just countering someone else's anecdotal example with one of my own.

My Other Self

I was a bit too busy watching the woman next to me take her boob out but everyone fell silent in the theater I was in yesterday when TDKR trailer came on.

There was talking through the others, including the new Spider-Man.

Autotelik

Didn't think this would open so big. Not a ton of fans out there for Thor or Capt America or Hulk, but I guess if you're a fan of any one of those (and Iron Man), you would end up seeing this anyway- that would be a logical reason for it's immense opening. Good word of mouth will give this one legs. If this gets to $190 this weekend alone, I can see it easily going $450+. In fact, I would not be surprised at all if this becomes the #1 summer movie, and have a higher gross than TDKR when all is said and done. I know a lot of people will counter and say just because TDK grossed $500m+ then it's a no brainer that the TDKR will do just as well, being it's the end of the series. But I'm guessing that a lot of the $$$ for the TDK had to do with Heath Ledger's Joker. There's no other more famous villain in the Batman series than the Joker, and Heath Ledger's death that year probably drew quite a few people too.

Dr. DVD

I think it really depends on the mindset of the audience. I remember taking in a midnight showing of X-Men:The Last Stand which just so happened to occur after the last day of school for the area in which I lived. I swear that audience applauded for everything. They clapped for Fast and the Furious:Tokyo Drift, they clapped for what they perceived as a cool shot in a Ghost Rider teaser, and they went ballistic for Snakes on a Plane. Needless to say , they didn't show up for opening night of that one.

RichC2

Considering the A+ cinemascore, the less than spectacular midnight showing, all the good WOM and $200m opening, I think a $490 - $520m gross isn't out of the question.

Jam Master Jay

John Carter should see a nice boost this weekend thanks to all the drive in theatre having to play it along with Avengers.

Matthew Chmiel

For everyone commenting that TDKR is going to not perform as well, you're all out of your fucking mind. When I saw the film at midnight, TDKR's final trailer was the first out the gate and the sold-out crowd went absolute bonkers. Everyone (geeks and non-geeks alike) I've talked to about The Avengers all loved it, but they're more excited for TDRK as it's the final chapter in what may be the only good incarnation of the Batman franchise.

Note: IT'S THE LAST ONE.

I will put money down now that TDRK:

• It will do more than $20 million at midnight. I don't have the confidence that it'll do more than $44 million at midnight to take the record away from Harry Potter.
• However, it will set the record as single box office day record. Its got a solid chance of breaking $100 million in a single day especially if IMAX theaters do showings for a straight 24-hour period.

It might not have the extra 3D surcharge that The Avengers has which helped catapult it to $200 million in its first weekend, but more people will be seeing it in IMAX with possibly multiple viewings.

I may have been wrong about a few other films (Act of Valor ), but TDKR is guaranteed to do over $400 million domestically. There's no question about it.

In regards to The Avengers, like I said about (and was right about) The Hunger Games, next week's performance will give everyone a clear estimate to how it's total run will end at.

Iron Man and Thor both had less than 50% drops in weekend two. On the flip side, Iron Man 2, The Incredible Hulk and Captain America all saw 60% or greater drops.

If The Avengers sees a 45-50% drop like the former films:

• It will set the record for highest grossing second weekend on record ($100 million plus).
• It will end its second weekend with a total of $350 million (plus) domestically.
• If it continues with 45-55% drops over the next few weekends, it will be the fourth film in history to smash the $500 million goal post. I'm estimating $505-520 million run at the end of the day.

If The Avengers sees a 60% plus drop like the latter films:

• It will set the record for highest grossing second weekend on record ($80 million plus).
• It will end its second weekend with a total of $330 million (plus) domestically.
• If it continues with 60% drops over the next few weekends, it will end at its domestic run close to $450 million.

... and then The Dark Knight Rises is released and fucking smashes every record it sets this weekend and next's.

auto

You take this shit really seriously, eh?

Gizmo

TDKR looks really bad. I'll wait for the blu-ray. Even TDK wasn't that good. Just a bunch of people hyped for it because of Heath's death.

Orbi-Wan Techno

Our theater did not show the trailer for TDKR, in fact all the trailers were old ones for Battleship, Spiderman, and Brave.

Matthew Chmiel

My wife yelled at me as I was typing that post and I yelled back doing my Christian Bale as Batman impersonation, "I'M ARGUING ON THE INTERNET."

I'm going to do that voice the entire time during the midnight screening too by the way. I'm going to grab random strangers and scream out, "WHERE'S RACHEL?"

Guru Askew

The flaw in expecting TDKR to outgross The Avengers is that it now needs to out-perform TDK as well which we all know isn't going to happen. The Avengers is shaping up to be more popular than TDK. TDKR is essentially doomed to be less-popular than TDK. TDKR outgrossing Avengers just doesn't work in that equation.

But hey if a bunch of 14-year-old emo girls are seeing TDKR 7 times later this summer in their Bane t-shirts they got at Hot Topic I'll gladly admit I was wrong.

Hokeyboy

Obvious

Matthew Chmiel

We don't know that yet as the second weekend will determine its fate. While I plan on seeing The Avengers a second time, I don't know how many times I will see it after that. I have friends that were okay with seeing it once and others that are seeing it again today or later this week. I know that I saw TDK three times in 72 hours, but I don't have the same excitement over The Avengers despite being a Whedon fanboy.

The advantage TDK had is it added more IMAX venues later into its run. Where its second weekend had a 52% drop, the addition of more venues turned it to 35% drops as weeks progressed. The Avengers will lose all of its IMAX locations on Thursday night as Warner has Dark Shadows booked in all of IMAX's major 70mm and digital venues.

I hate you, but goddamnit, do I respect you.

Guru Askew

Losing a small percentage of IMAX screens is inconsequential when Avengers will have a pretty good run on the far-more-ubiquitous 3D screen for a while. Even when a movie breaks IMAX records it's not a gamechanger, it's a footnote.

My Other Self

godzilla rules

There is NO WAY that TDKR will bring in $100 million its OW. If The Avengers couldn't break the opening day record then TDKR won't either. People will turn out in droves to see the movie, but I think that this one will actually disappoint some who cherish TDK. The final trailer hasn't inspired as much awe as TDK'S. I am looking forward to seeing TDKR, but I am not nearly as excited as I was for TDK. I think that Bane is actually hurting the movie. Not many people know who he is and those who do remember who is, the common movie-goer not us geeks, remember him from Batman & Robin. Had Nolan picked a more recognized villian then maybe there would be more hype. Also, if they had put together a better trailer then maybe people would be expecting more.

Matthew Chmiel

IMAX accounted for 8-10% of the film's gross this weekend, somewhere between $16 - 20 million (I'm sure IMAX will report the finals tomorrow as shows are still selling out here in town). If the film has a 50% drop, that's anywhere from $8 - 10 million that Disney won't see.

TDKR is a title people will make the trip to see in IMAX due to Nolan shooting in the format which will count for guaranteed multiple viewings. Let it be people seeing the film in 35mm/DLP and then IMAX or simply just multiple IMAX viewings.

My Other Self

What do you do for a career?

DthRdrX

I just don't trust Fox not to screw it up again. I really wish they would have announced orgins as a complete reboot. X3 and Wolverine left a very bad taste in my mouth.

Only a matter of time before Fox decides to reboot and recast the main X-Men characters IMO.

Guru Askew

I agree TDK is arguably a bad movie. There are demonstrable lapses in logic as far a the screenwriting goes, it's awkwardly-paced with at least two setpieces that are more dynamic and memorable than the incomprehensible mess that serves as the film's climax, and in Two-Face you have one of the post poorly-realized supervillains ever include in a comic book movie.

To downplay the role that Ledger's death played in getting people to recognize a deeply-flawed film as a masterpiece is absurd. It's impossible to deny that the film and Ledger's performance became immune from criticism. It's happening right here in this thread: say anything but "best movie evar" and people have this incredulous and condescending "you're kidding right?" attitude.

Anyone who was posting on forums like this in '08 knows people had already made up their minds months before they ever saw the movie. I'm not saying everyone did but A LOT of people did and I think we should all be mature enough to admit that a substantial chunk of the Nolan fanbase is made up of that particular brand of Kool-Aid drinker.

Hokeyboy

DthRdrX

I liked TDK, but I loved Begins a whole lot more. That will probably always be my favorite Batman film.