B5Erik

Based on the trailer I think that ASM will do somewhere between $275 - $325 Million domestically.

Good, solid numbers for a Spider-Man movie, spectacular numbers for almost anything else, but it won't be as strong at the box office as the first 3 Spidey movies.

Quake1028

I'm not saying ASM is going to do $400MM, but people predicting cumes of $100MM and $125MM are being ridiculous, IMO.

Defiant1

I know it has no chance of beating Avatar's $760M or Titanic's $658M but does anyone think The Avengers could beat The Dark Knight's $533M to claim #3 on the all-time domestic list? If the remainder of May's big releases underwhelm, I think it has a shot at the bronze medal.

Mr. Cinema

I think it has a shot. It got an A+ Cinemascore rating. It'll earn $300 million by next weekend. And as you said, May isn't exactly loaded with heavyweights. I'm not sure there's a lot of people out there who are clamoring for another Men in Black movie.

It's 2nd weekend could be $100 million.

B5Erik

I'm also going to predict that TDKR ends up around $350 - $375 Million.

As for the rest of the summer movies? I have no idea...

superdeluxe

If you believe that tdkr is going to defeat avengers, might want to revise the 450, avengers could be at 350 at the end of this weekend and will be pushing for 450 mil by the end of next weekend

d2cheer

Magic Mike


I am starting to feel that you may be correct with this...or at the very least a lot closer than I would of originally thought.


Oh and G.I. Joe $0 for summer 2012...

superdeluxe

2012 is going to have some amazing success stories (Avengers/Hunger Games) and some amazing diasters (John Carter, Battleship)

islandclaws

Prometheus would be stoked to hit $250m.

Mr. Cinema

No kidding. If that film earns $250 mil in the US, parts 2 and 3 will immediately be greenlit by Fox.

Defiant1

I'm not doing too well with my first two guesses! Avengers is doing phenomenally well (around $470M at last count and plenty more to come) and Battleship will be lucky to get to $100M.

Defiant1

Well, now that the summer movie season is more or less done, we can compile the totals and how right and wrong we all were.

The Avengers - $300M. Actual $620M. Far and away exceeded my expectations.

Battleship - $150M. Actual $65M. Bombs away!

Men in Black III - $180M. Actual $179M. Right on target.

Snow White and the Huntsman - $110M. Actual $155M. Really good marketing job on this one from Universal. Good thing the scandal came out way after and didn't affect the movie.

Madagascar 3 - $160M. Actual $215M. Went against convention and was the highest grossing of the trilogy.

Prometheus - $150M. Actual $126M. Very polarizing reactions ultimately affected this movie for the worse.

That's My Boy - $125M. Actual $37M. Disaster for Sandler & co.

Rock of Ages - $100M Actual $39M. Cruise & co. didn't fare much better. Terrible result.

Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter - $80M. Actual $37M. This could have gone either way and unfortunately for Fox, it was staked.

Brave - $250M. Actual $232M. Nice result and a decent rebound from the Cars 2 debacle.

G.I. Joe: Retaliation - $125M. N/A. Postponed to 2013.

Magic Mike - $70M. Actual $113M. The budget was only $7M so this was a nice big win.

The Amazing Spider-Man - $315M. Actual $260M. Disappointing result for the 4th of July tentpole release.

Ice Age 4 - $200M. Actual $156M. The lowest grossing of the IA movies. Fox is very thankful for the international grosses to keep this franchise afloat.

Ted - $100M. Actual $216M. The Bridesmaids of Summer 2012.

The Dark Knight Rises - $400M. Actual $433M. Final result will be somewhere around $450M. Excellent performance, although overshadowed by the even better BO of The Avengers and the tragic events in Colorado on opening weekend.

The Bourne Legacy - $150M. Actual $98M. Final will be in the $115M range. Like Ice Age 4, this is the lowest grossing in the tetralogy. You know that Universal knows that they have to get Damon back for Bourne 5.

Total Recall - $100M. Actual $57M and it will be lucky to make it to $60M. A very costly bomb for Sony. Do not hire Colin Farrell to star in big budget movies! The original from 1990 doubled the gross of the 2012 version!

The Expendables 2 - $90M. Actual $69M, with a likely finish somewhere in the $80s. On target.

Tarantino

I love seeing posts like this when it's all said and done.

Mr. Cinema

Worldwide numbers always help.

Spider-man $735 million
The Avengers $1.5 billion
Dark Knight Rises $1 billion
MIB 3 $623 million
Snow White $394 million
Prometheus $351 million

islandclaws

... but we're talking about domestic here.

I can't believe TASM pulled off over $700m.

RichC2

It's still Spider-man, and technically (imo) it was the second best in the 4 movie franchise.

I wish Prometheus did better, but at the same time I wish Prometheus was better.

Artman

3 out of 5 are pretty close. In one of the Prometheus threads I predicted 125m.

islandclaws

So, let's see....

Way off.
About $50m under.
About $80m under.

Right on.
Pretty close.
n/a
Should be on the money there.
Close.
Under, but not by a lot.

Mr. Cinema

Foreign dollars are becoming more important to the studios now than they've ever been. Take Pirates 4 for example. It under performed here, but racked up enough overseas to generate a billion worldwide. The foreign dollars can make up quite a bit of ground for the US underperformers. Such as Spider-man.

Although I'll argue that the sour taste from part 3 might have also hurt the reboot's total. And it just opened in China a couple weeks back. So it could have more markets to reach and end up with $800 mil, which Sony should be thrilled with.

islandclaws

Oh, yea, I completely agree with you there. I was just pointing out that this thread was purely predicting domestic numbers.

Plus, you know nobody here outside of a select few care about WW numbers. Those foreigners have shitty taste and they love 3D!

WeylandYutani

The rest being bonafide idiots. WW numbers matter in this day and age in a way they didn't just ten short years ago. It's specifically because of WW gross that in a couple of years we are going to get a Prometheus 2. We are getting a Pirates 5. Etc.

Shannon Nutt

I should probably post an apology to Abe Lincoln for cursing his movie. For what it's worth, I still enjoyed it. And he gets another shot in a few months with a better actor/director.