4th of July Weekend Box Office 7/3-7/6: Hancock Leads the Way

[Mr. Cinema]

THURSDAY 8:00 a.m. (Pacific): After solid Tuesday night preview business of $6.8 million, Hancock (Sony), featuring mega-star Will Smith, stumbled out of the gate with a less-than-expected $17.2 million on its first full day. If the Peter Berg-directed superhero pic follows a traditional pattern, it will be down today, bigger on Friday because of the holiday, flat or slightly down on Saturday and suffer a 25 percent-35 percent dip on Sunday. All of the sudden, Sony is looking at a less than $100 million for the 5 1/2 days.

To be fair, Sony sources have been very steady in their internal expectations for Hancock at $90 million-$100 million over the 4th of July holiday period, but it looked much stronger to competing studios. Despite the presence of Will Smith, who in the end will have notched for himself a record eighth consecutive $100 million movie, Hancock is an original film, not based on a comic book (like Iron Man) or a toy line (like last year's Transformers).

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY WEDNESDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Hancock (Sony) — $17.2 million, $4,338 PTA, $24.03 million cume
2. Wall-E (Disney) — $6.7 million, $1,678 PTA, $86.3 million cume
3. Wanted (Universal) — $3.6 million, $1,134 PTA, $65.51 million cume
4. Get Smart (Warner Bros.) — $1.8 million, $504 PTA, $84.46 million cume
5. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.4 million, $418 PTA, $184.06 million cume
6. Kit Kittredge: An American Girl (Picturehouse) — $1.1 million, $627 PTA, $1.6 million cume
7. The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — $722,000, $215 PTA, $118.94 million cume
8. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $489,000, $223 PTA, $141.84 million cume
9. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $489,000, $223 PTA, $301.88 million cume
10. The Love Guru (Paramount) — $424,000, $160 PTA, $27.13 million cume

[KillerCannibal]

I'll bet it pulls in $105m for the 5.5 day weekend. Wed might have been a bit soft, but Fri and Sat should give it some good numbers if word-of-mouth doesn't sink it.

[Trevor]

I think your SitC numbers are off.

Also, I always thought it strange that films that get a 3 day head start are judged against all the rest.

[Mr.Scary]

@ SitC making 300 million domestically. I don't think so...at least I hope not.

[chris_sc77]

Looks like Sex and the City and Indiana Jones are neck and neck .
Sad to see Hancock making all that money.

[Mr. Cinema]

Originally Posted by Trevor

I think your SitC numbers are off.

Also, I always thought it strange that films that get a 3 day head start are judged against all the rest.

Blame Fantasy Moguls.

[Zodiac_Speaking]

I think Hancock will have a great opening weekend, but will have no legs. With Hellboy II, Journey to the Center of the Earth in 3-D, and, of course, The Dark Knight will factor into it's second and third weeks, but also it is not that good, so word of mouth will kill it.

Probably $160mil dom.

[Mr. Cinema]

Thursday numbers from Showbizdata.com

1. HANCOCK SONY 3,680 16,920,000 4,598 n/a 41,141,400
2. WALL-E DISNEY 3,992 8,335,000 2,088 n/a 94,662,000
3. WANTED UNIVERSAL 3,175 4,655,000 1,466 n/a 70,155,990
4. GET SMART WARNER BROS. 3,915 2,475,000 632 -43% 86,975,000
5. KUNG FU PANDA PARAMOUNT 3,670 1,860,000 507 -40% 187,263,000
6. INCREDIBLE HULK, THE UNIVERSAL 3,349 1,005,000 300 -53% 119,950,065
7. KIT KITTREDGE: AN AMERICAN GIRL MYSTERY PICTUREHOUSE 1,753 920,000 525 n/a 2,533,624
8. INDIANA JONES AND THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL PARAMOUNT 2,556 760,000 297 -25% 303,114,000
9. SEX AND THE CITY WARNER BROS. 1,755 645,000 368 -36% 143,044,000
10. LOVE GURU, THE PARAMOUNT 3,012 495,000 164 -62% 28,022,000

[Mr. Cinema]

Fantasy Moguls is projecting a $26 million take for Hancock today.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Hancock (Sony) — $18 million, $4,540 PTA, $59.23 million cume
2. Wall-E (Disney) — $10 million, $2,505 PTA, $104.6 million cume
3. Wanted (Universal) — $5.5 million, $1,732 PTA, $75.61 million cume
4. Get Smart (Warner Bros.) — $3 million, $839 PTA, $89.86 million cume
5. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2 million, $598 PTA, $187.91 million cume
6. The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — $1.2 million, $358 PTA, $121.14 million cume
7. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $1.1 million, $502 PTA, $303.75 million cume
8. Kit Kittredge: An American Girl (Picturehouse) — $900,000 million, $513 PTA, $3.41 million cume
9. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $750,000, $588 PTA, $143.26 million cume
10. The Love Guru (Paramount) — $625,000, $236 PTA, $28.25 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Hancock (Sony) — $62 million, $15,637 PTA, $103.23 million cume
2. Wall-E (Disney) — $38.5 million, $9,644 PTA, $133.1 million cume
3. Wanted (Universal) — $22.5 million, $7,087 PTA, $92.61 million cume
4. Get Smart (Warner Bros.) — $10.7 million, $2,994 PTA, $97.56 million cume
5. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $7.4 million, $2,211 PTA, $193.31 million cume
6. The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — $4.6 million, $1,371 PTA, $124.54 million cume
7. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $4.4 million, $2,007 PTA, $307.05 million cume
8. Kit Kittredge: An American Girl (Picturehouse) — $3.5 million, $1,997 PTA, $6.01 million cume
9. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $2.9 million, $2,275 PTA, $145.41 million cume
10. The Love Guru (Paramount) — $2.2 million, $831 PTA, $29.83 million cume

[chris_sc77]

I still have no idea how people are finding Hancock to look worth watching. Oh, well.
Wonder if Kung Fu Panda will end up with more than Wall-E.
As for next week I'm hoping Hellboy does good but I dont think it'll make any more than $25 million for the weekend.

[Jericho]

Originally Posted by chris_sc77

I still have no idea how people are finding Hancock to look worth watching. Oh, well.
Wonder if Kung Fu Panda will end up with more than Wall-E.
As for next week I'm hoping Hellboy does good but I dont think it'll make any more than $25 million for the weekend.

The movie's been out essentially three days. Do you expect people to stop going to a movie instantaneously because you didn't like it?

[chris_sc77]

^Dont get me wrong. I didnt see it and I wont see it in theaters. I wouldnt pay to see that movie. I'm just surprised people think it looks good. I though the trailers were not good at all and it didnt look funny or exciting. It also didn't get very favorable reviews. (Oh, and it less than 90 minutes and PG-13 compared to the r-rated 126 page script this film originally of which I read some of when this film was called Tonight, He Comes.)
So there is no way in hell I will see it. Still, kudos to Smith proving once again why no one should underestimate the performance of a film of his. He truly is one of the only sure things in terms of box office it seems.

[Shannon Nutt]

Originally Posted by chris_sc77

...when this film was called Tonight, He Comes

I still find it quite humorous that the producers felt "Hancock" was a less sexually suggestive title that "Tonight, He Comes".

[fumanstan]

Originally Posted by chris_sc77

^Dont get me wrong. I didnt see it and I wont see it in theaters. I wouldnt pay to see that movie. I'm just surprised people think it looks good. I though the trailers were not good at all and it didnt look funny or exciting. It also didn't get very favorable reviews. (Oh, and it less than 90 minutes and PG-13 compared to the r-rated 126 page script this film originally of which I read some of when this film was called Tonight, He Comes.)
So there is no way in hell I will see it. Still, kudos to Smith proving once again why no one should underestimate the performance of a film of his. He truly is one of the only sure things in terms of box office it seems.

Didn't you just answer your own question about the film's success? It's Will Smith, it's an action movie, and there's humor and he's a superhero, opening on July 4th weekend. This was destined for a huge take no matter how bad the reviews are. I don't see how anyone could be surprised.

[maingon]

Originally Posted by chris_sc77

I still have no idea how people are finding Hancock to look worth watching. Oh, well.
Wonder if Kung Fu Panda will end up with more than Wall-E.
As for next week I'm hoping Hellboy does good but I dont think it'll make any more than $25 million for the weekend.

Hankcock its pretty good movie, I can see why people are going to see

[Mr. Cinema]

Originally Posted by chris_sc77

I still have no idea how people are finding Hancock to look worth watching. Oh, well.
Wonder if Kung Fu Panda will end up with more than Wall-E.
As for next week I'm hoping Hellboy does good but I dont think it'll make any more than $25 million for the weekend.

C'mon. It's a freaking Will Smith movie. At least opening week, people are going to flock to see his new movie. There's a reason he's today's most bankable star.

I'd agree with you if Hancock were played by Martin Lawrence.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

Originally Posted by chris_sc77

I still have no idea how people are finding Hancock to look worth watching.

Behold the power of Will Smith. I bet he shits gold.

[scott1598]

Originally Posted by chris_sc77

As for next week I'm hoping Hellboy does good but I dont think it'll make any more than $25 million for the weekend.

no way in heck it is making that little. no way, just won't happen in this market today. wait...wait, aren't you the one that makes these highly implausible predictions and then recants later on?

[Seantn]

But Hellboy is PG-13 -- there's NO WAY that movie will be good!

[chris_sc77]

Originally Posted by scott1598

no way in heck it is making that little. no way, just won't happen in this market today. wait...wait, aren't you the one that makes these highly implausible predictions and then recants later on?

Nope that isnt me. I was the one who said the new Hulk would only make the same as the 2003 Hulk and poeple argued with me saying who the f*** cares (even though it was a thread about box office.) . Oh, and I was right about that one bythe way.
I do hope I am wrong about hellboy though. I think that they should have opened that film up in March or April like the first one. Being sandwiched between Hancock and Batman is going to make things very hard on the film. I want it to do good so we get a Hellboy 3. But I dont know if it will be able to do more than $60 million. I watched Hellboy : DC for like the 4th or 5th time last weekend and it is such a good film. I'd definitely put it in the top 10 comic book movies ever.

[Seantn]

Originally Posted by chris_sc77

Nope that isnt me. I was the one who said the new Hulk would only make the same as the 2003 Hulk and poeple argued with me saying who the f*** cares (even though it was a thread about box office.) . Oh, and I was right about that one bythe way.
I do hope I am wrong about hellboy though. I think that they should have opened that film up in March or April like the first one. Being sandwiched between Hancock and Batman is going to make things very hard on the film. I want it to do good so we get a Hellboy 3. But I dont know if it will be able to do more than $60 million. I watched Hellboy : DC for like the 4th or 5th time last weekend and it is such a good film. I'd definitely put it in the top 10 comic book movies ever.

But the first one wasn't a huge hit. It did okay, but not great. Seems wise not to open it when the first one came out.

[Daytripper]

Originally Posted by Seantn

But the first one wasn't a huge hit. It did okay, but not great. Seems wise not to open it when the first one came out.

You're right. It wasn't. But it's word of mouth has made it somewhat of a cult film. And like chris_sc77, I would not only put it in the Top 10 best comic book films, it's my favorite. And gets better with each viewing. I never liked that they planned a summer release. Especially before "Batman". Maybe an August release would have been wiser if they had to do summer at all.

[Sierra Disc]

That's quite the drop for WANTED, what, 70%?

[clemente]

Originally Posted by Sierra Disc

That's quite the drop for WANTED, what, 70%?

51 mil to 22.5 mil...isn't that more like 56%?

[Matthew Chmiel]

You also have to factor in that a lot of people were out of school/work this week, thus the increase of (slightly) higher weekday takes.