Weekend Box Office Thread July 27th - 29th '07 - Show me the d'oh (Simpsons) edition.

[RichC2]

Simpsons release with possibly strong holdovers from Transformers, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, Chuck and Larry and Hairspray.

Current grosses of the summers top pics:

Key: (D) = Domestic/US & CAD, (I) = International, (W) = Worldwide/Total

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry - $48.7m (D), $0m (I), $48.7 (W)
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - $221m (D), $351.3m (I), $572m (W)
Hairspray - $40.1m (D), $4.2m (I), $44.3m (W)
Transformers - $270.7m (D), $192.4m (I), $463m (W)
Ratatouille - $170.8m (D), $37.5m (I), $208m (W)
Live Free or Die Hard - $119m (D), $159m (I), $278m (W)
Evan Almighty - $94.8m (D), $4.6m (I), $99.4m (W)
1408 - $68.5m (D), $2.8m (I), $71.3m (W)
Knocked Up - $143.6m (D), $9.4m (I), $153m (W)
Ocean's 13 - $114.9m (D), $154.9m (I), $269.8m (W)
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer - $129.2m (D), $108.1m (I), $237.3m (W)

Pirates of the Caribbean: AWE - $306.4m (D), $640.6m (I), $947m (W)
Shrek the Third - $319.1m (D), $382.9 (I), $702m (W)
Spider-man 3 - $335.6m (D), $552.8m (I), $888.4m (W)

Current #1 Domestic: Spider-man 3
Current #1 Worldwide: Pirates of the Caribbean : AWE

Transformers is doing gangbusters in Asian countries, especially in South Korea (They helped a lot in making The Island into a not-as-devestating flop.. movie was huge there).

From hapgilmore's poll on The Simpsons Movie:

How much money will The Simpsons Movie bank opening weekend?

< 10 million 3 2.19%
10-20 million 5 3.65%
20-30 million 33 24.09%
30-40 million 29 21.17%
40-50 million 18 13.14%
50-60 million 12 8.76%
60 + million 37 27.01%

Most seem to anticipate 20 - 40m, which is squarely where I fall as well, though after all the positive reviews (which rarely have much pull on opening weekend, but count, no less), I'm a bit more optimistic.

[misterchimpy]

The Simpsons movie is going to do well both domestically and overseas, where the show is still very popular, so I think it will definitely be in the top 10 for the summer, might beat the Rat movie on a worldwide basis, and if it cracks $50 mm this weekend, will probably beat die hard.

Also, there's a lot less competition in august(lol, i don't think Underdog is going to displace it). So there's a pretty good chance that with the positive buzz, it should have some legs.

I read someplace that the budget was a mere $75 million, you can't even fart in Brad Pitt's direction for a summer movie budget that size. So we are likely to see another one, assuming they can get Groening to do it. When I saw him on the Daily Show, he definitely seemed pumped about it...

[raven56706]

just came back from the movie theater simpsons was sold out and they had to stop a showing of live free for simpsons.....

[hardercore]

I don't get why people are so down on the Simpsons with their BO predictions. My theatre was pretty packed when I saw it. I predicted 60m+ and think it will stand.

[calhoun07]

Originally Posted by hardercore

I don't get why people are so down on the Simpsons with their BO predictions.

Because they assume the rest of America thinks like them and will avoid the show because the series had some bad seasons during the Futurama years and took a bit to get back on its feet afterwards.

[Mr. Cinema]

I think part of the reason for those predicting a less than huge opening is because the movie wasn't released during the height of the tv show's popularity. That they may have waited too long to have a movie. The reviews are high though, so I'm sure it'll do better than the $30-$40 million I predicted.

[Mr. Cinema]

Originally Posted by misterchimpy

The Simpsons movie is going to do well both domestically and overseas, where the show is still very popular, so I think it will definitely be in the top 10 for the summer, might beat the Rat movie on a worldwide basis, and if it cracks $50 mm this weekend, will probably beat die hard.

Also, there's a lot less competition in august(lol, i don't think Underdog is going to displace it). So there's a pretty good chance that with the positive buzz, it should have some legs.

I read someplace that the budget was a mere $75 million, you can't even fart in Brad Pitt's direction for a summer movie budget that size. So we are likely to see another one, assuming they can get Groening to do it. When I saw him on the Daily Show, he definitely seemed pumped about it...

August could be a stronger month than usual. Bourne Ultimatum and Rush Hour 3 should both be blockbusters. Superbad has gotten terrific early buzz and Stardust could do well. Hot Rod could be a surprise. The Invasion is hit or miss, but I'm leaning towards miss.

I don't even want to try and predict Underdog.

[Bandit03]

Love the thread title Rich lol. I still think that the Simpsons will make around 50-60 million. Gonna go see the movie either today or tomorrow.

[misterchimpy]

Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema

August could be a stronger month than usual. Bourne Ultimatum and Rush Hour 3 should both be blockbusters. Superbad has gotten terrific early buzz and Stardust could do well. Hot Rod could be a surprise. The Invasion is hit or miss, but I'm leaning towards miss.

I don't even want to try and predict Underdog.

Yeah but I don't think any of those movies have the buzz(and therefore the theater footprint) around them that many of the sequels from earlier in the summer did. Rush Hour might do the best, Rush Hour 2 did $226 million domestically, and its audience might not care about bad reviews(lol, i'm assuming it will suck). However, let's just say that the best box office days of Jackie Chan are perhaps behind him. Bad Boys 2, probably a close analog, did $138 million domestically, but also had Will Smith in it.

And Bourne should do well, but I'm not sure there is that much overlap with the Simpsons audience.

I don't think Stardust is going to do that well, the previews of it have been awful. As for Hotrod, I'm just not sure that Samberg can open a movie, as they say, not enough people watch SNL anymore. I agree that Superbad could do very well, the buzz is tremendous, but it doesn't open until August 17.

And the kid friendly competition has dwindled dramatically at this point. Shrek, Harry Potter, Transformers, Spidey, Ratatouille, Pirates, F4, etc are all either gone or dwindling the number of screens at this point. Not to say that Transformers especially won't continue to do well, but the Simpsons won't be up against 5 or 6 of them, as they might have been the case earlier in the summer.

[maingon]

Early Friday Estimates

1. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) – $28M [$28M cume]
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) – $6M [$58.5M cume]
3. Hairspray (New Line) – $5.2M [$48.9M cume]
4. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) – $5M [$229.7M cume]
5. No Reservations (Warner Bros) – $4M [$4M cume]
6. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3.2M [$276.2M cume]
7. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $2.25M [$174.7M cume]
8. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) – $1.4M [$121.1M cume]
9. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) – $1.2M [$1.2M cume]
10. Who’s Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) – $900,000 [$900,000 cume]

[misterchimpy]

Wow that will be a $60 mm+ weekend for the Simpsons...

[JPRaup]

holy shit! alot of people were off in prediction

[Jericho]

Originally Posted by misterchimpy

Yeah but I don't think any of those movies have the buzz(and therefore the theater footprint) around them that many of the sequels from earlier in the summer did. Rush Hour might do the best, Rush Hour 2 did $226 million domestically, and its audience might not care about bad reviews(lol, i'm assuming it will suck). However, let's just say that the best box office days of Jackie Chan are perhaps behind him. Bad Boys 2, probably a close analog, did $138 million domestically, but also had Will Smith in it.

And Bourne should do well, but I'm not sure there is that much overlap with the Simpsons audience.

I don't think Stardust is going to do that well, the previews of it have been awful. As for Hotrod, I'm just not sure that Samberg can open a movie, as they say, not enough people watch SNL anymore. I agree that Superbad could do very well, the buzz is tremendous, but it doesn't open until August 17.

And the kid friendly competition has dwindled dramatically at this point. Shrek, Harry Potter, Transformers, Spidey, Ratatouille, Pirates, F4, etc are all either gone or dwindling the number of screens at this point. Not to say that Transformers especially won't continue to do well, but the Simpsons won't be up against 5 or 6 of them, as they might have been the case earlier in the summer.

Your logic seems to be all over the place. I mean you say you don't think Samberg can open a movie, yet praise Superbad (a movie filled with even lesser names than Hot Rod).

The comparison of Rush Hour 3 to Bad Boys 2 is puzzling too. Other than being sequels, is there a lot in common between these two? One was an action packed sequel to a modest (at best) hit. The other is basically a comedy that has had two fairly successful films.

Granted August is never a strong month for movies. It tends to be a dumping ground of sorts for failed movies, although The Bourne Ultimatium and Rush Hour 3 are obviously not being dumped. But there's legit competition for a few weeks still, and how many movies make any serious coin in week 4? In this day and age, almost all movies make the majority of their money in the first few weeks.

[chris_sc77]

Yeah it should make at least $70 million this weekend.
Also I am kinda surprised to see I know who killed me do so well. I didnt think it would make over a million. Still pretty terrible for a film released into over 1300 screens.

[raven56706]

wow... 70 mil.... how much did it cost to make?

[RichC2]

$65m Budget.

[auto]

Originally Posted by raven56706

wow... 70 mil.... how much did it cost to make?

I think I read 65m. I have no idea what they would have done with all that money though.

[Simpson Purist]

Looks like the movie will have 300-type trajectory in the B.O., pretty impressive if you ask me.

[Brent L]

How much does it cost to produce a single episode or an entire season of The Simpsons TV show?

[misterchimpy]

Originally Posted by Jericho

Your logic seems to be all over the place. I mean you say you don't think Samberg can open a movie, yet praise Superbad (a movie filled with even lesser names than Hot Rod).

The comparison of Rush Hour 3 to Bad Boys 2 is puzzling too. Other than being sequels, is there a lot in common between these two? One was an action packed sequel to a modest (at best) hit. The other is basically a comedy that has had two fairly successful films.

Granted August is never a strong month for movies. It tends to be a dumping ground of sorts for failed movies, although The Bourne Ultimatium and Rush Hour 3 are obviously not being dumped. But there's legit competition for a few weeks still, and how many movies make any serious coin in week 4? In this day and age, almost all movies make the majority of their money in the first few weeks.

The buzz on Superbad has been great, and while the tag line 'from the makers of' usually doesn't work that well, I think the "Knocked Up" link will be very strong in this case.
The studio has been advertising it heavily, a month in advance, and doing a lot of previews.

As far as Hot Rod goes, the early reviews have been very mixed, to say the least. There has been very little advertising and mktg, a sure sign that the studio doesn't see it as a big winner. With a shitty movie, you need a star to fill the seats on the 1st weekend, Samberg, imo, isn't it. So I don't think it's inconsistent at all, actually.

As for Rush Hour, I think the comparison is valid with Bad Boys 2, if only because both movies will tend to skew more urban, imo. But I think RH3 will do well, even if it sucks, as with the Simpsons, there is very little genre competition for it at this point and urban audiences haven't had as much product this summer . But I'm not sure that if that hurts the Simpsons.

As for your point about movies not having legs, absolutely, but the exception still seems to be the kid friendly genre. Both Rat and Transformers are still in the top 10 and will still have ok weekends, nearly a month after they were released. And my point was that there will be much less high profile family friendly stuff in August, so it should still be doing decent business a few weeks from now.

[KillerCannibal]

Damn, I was really hoping Who's Your Caddy? wouldn't crack the top 10. Who watches this crap?

[Jericho]

Originally Posted by misterchimpy

The buzz on Superbad has been great, and while the tag line 'from the makers of' usually doesn't work that well, I think the "Knocked Up" link will be very strong in this case.
The studio has been advertising it heavily, a month in advance, and doing a lot of previews.

As far as Hot Rod goes, the early reviews have been very mixed, to say the least. There has been very little advertising and mktg, a sure sign that the studio doesn't see it as a big winner. With a shitty movie, you need a star to fill the seats on the 1st weekend, Samberg, imo, isn't it. So I don't think it's inconsistent at all, actually.

As for Rush Hour, I think the comparison is valid with Bad Boys 2, if only because both movies will tend to skew more urban, imo. But I think RH3 will do well, even if it sucks, as with the Simpsons, there is very little genre competition for it at this point and urban audiences haven't had as much product this summer . But I'm not sure that if that hurts the Simpsons.

As for your point about movies not having legs, absolutely, but the exception still seems to be the kid friendly genre. Both Rat and Transformers are still in the top 10 and will still have ok weekends, nearly a month after they were released. And my point was that there will be much less high profile family friendly stuff in August, so it should still be doing decent business a few weeks from now.

I don't really disagree with your end results/predictions, but the logic you use to justify it just seems odd. You praise one movie for one reason, yet ignore that reason in judging the next movie. It seems you carve out exceptions from exceptions, which suggests there no real template to begin with

Hot Rod will probably not make money because it looks stupid, while Superbad will probably make money since it looks funny. I don't think the stars matter, I don't think the "from the makers of" matter, and I don't think it really matters how 'urban' it all is.

[gotrice487]

Simpsons is doing a lot better than I thought it would!

[Daytripper]

Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema

August could be a stronger month than usual. Bourne Ultimatum and Rush Hour 3 should both be blockbusters. Superbad has gotten terrific early buzz and Stardust could do well. Hot Rod could be a surprise. The Invasion is hit or miss, but I'm leaning towards miss.

I don't even want to try and predict Underdog.

Agree with everything here. I pray "Hot Rod" is not a hit. I ***hate*** Andy Sandberg and cannot believe he got his own movie. He's painful enough on "SNL". As was Jimmy Fallon.

Since the advance word on "The Invasion" is boring, not "bad", I suspect it won't do well. I'm still going to see it only because I've loved all the "Body Snatcher" movies.

[JumpCutz]

Originally Posted by KillerCannabis

Damn, I was really hoping Who's Your Caddy? wouldn't crack the top 10. Who watches this crap?

Who's Your Caddy? ("Big Boi" meets "Caddy Shack")