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Old 03-13-05, 11:31 PM   #1
Doctor Gonzo
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Make your summer movie boxoffice predictions

Never do real well at this, but here's how I'll call em -

1. Star Wars Ep III ..... $330 mil
2. War of the Worlds ..... $290 mil
3. Batman Begins .........$250 mil
4. Fantastic Four .........$170 mil
5. Madagascar .............$160 mil
6. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory...$150 mil
7. Kingdom of Heaven.....$130 mil
8. Bewitched ................$125 mil
9. Stealth ....................$115 mil
10. Cinderella Man .........$100 mil

The field: Mr. and Mrs Smith, XXX:State of the Union, The Island, Aeon Flux, The Pink Panther, Fun With Dick and Jane

How do you see the summer pics stack up?
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Last edited by Doctor Gonzo; 03-13-05 at 11:34 PM.
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Old 03-13-05, 11:38 PM   #2
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I don't think Fantastic Four will do that well. Other than that, those look pretty close to my predictions.
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Old 03-13-05, 11:54 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor Gonzo

The field: Mr. and Mrs Smith, XXX:State of the Union, The Island, Aeon Flux, The Pink Panther, Fun With Dick and Jane
PANTHER is September.

DICK AND JANE is Christmas.
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Old 03-14-05, 12:22 AM   #4
Matthew Chmiel
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Quote:
PANTHER is September.
Isn't "Panther" lined up for Labor Day (meaning the end of summer)?
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Old 03-14-05, 12:32 AM   #5
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Old 03-14-05, 12:32 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel
Isn't "Panther" lined up for Labor Day (meaning the end of summer)?
It's set at the moment to open the 23rd of September. Labor Day might be the end of the summer, but it's not really considered summer movie season. In fact, it's pretty much a graveyard for bad movies as it's one of the worst box office weekends of the year. Anything opening on that day can pretty much be considered a dud.
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Old 03-14-05, 12:37 AM   #7
Matthew Chmiel
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Quote:
Anything opening on that day can pretty much be considered a dud.
A studio can have success on Labor Day, it's just that none of them ever try. The only studio in recent history that has tried and suceeded on Labor Day has been UA with Jeepers Creepers and Jeepers Creepers 2.
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Old 03-14-05, 12:50 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel
A studio can have success on Labor Day, it's just that none of them ever try. The only studio in recent history that has tried and suceeded on Labor Day has been UA with Jeepers Creepers and Jeepers Creepers 2.
True, forgot about those flicks. The studios like to use Labor Day as dumping ground though. But considering how the box office seems to grow every year with more and more weekends that used to be dumping grounds sporting hits, I imagine in years that'll become less the case.
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Old 03-14-05, 01:10 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor Gonzo
1. Star Wars Ep III ..... $330 mil
2. War of the Worlds ..... $290 mil
3. Batman Begins .........$250 mil
4. Fantastic Four .........$170 mil
5. Madagascar .............$160 mil
6. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory...$150 mil
7. Kingdom of Heaven.....$130 mil
8. Bewitched ................$125 mil
9. Stealth ....................$115 mil
10. Cinderella Man .........$100 mil
That's probably about where I'd put em. Put F4 at about 140...drop stealth under 100 mill...pretty close.
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Old 03-14-05, 01:57 PM   #10
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I would definitely drop FF. The more I see the trailers, the more I think this will bomb. I would add more to the last Star Wars movie we will ever see. I also think Bewitched will do around $80 mil. I hope War of the Worlds and Batman do extremely well.
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Old 03-14-05, 02:04 PM   #11
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I think Kingdom of Heaven will be good, but I don't think it'll be a huge box office draw. Also, what about Mr. and Mrs. Smith? That shows potential.
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Old 03-14-05, 02:13 PM   #12
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Madagascar looks funny... might do better then that..... I think FF will do alittle better then expected...
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Old 03-14-05, 02:21 PM   #13
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Dead on with Episode III and War Of The Worlds.

I think FF4 is only going to pull in about $80 million, tops; and I think Stealth isn't going to pull in much, either...maybe $60 million tops.

Also, even if it's great, no way Batman Begins pulls in $250 million...$200 million would be a great number, think closer to $175 million.

Missing from your list:

The Longest Yard - should pull in at least $150 million
The Bad News Bears - $80 Million
The Dukes Of Hazzard - $125 Million
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Old 03-14-05, 02:37 PM   #14
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Bad News Bears will make more than Dukes of Hazzard. Probably around the same thing as The Longest Yard.
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Old 03-14-05, 02:59 PM   #15
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Not one person mentioned Hitchiker's Guide To the Galaxy does that mean that everyone thinks it will flop.

I think it will do a solid $80 million.

I don't think The Longest Yard will do $150, I think that is way to high, or at least I hope so.
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Old 03-14-05, 03:14 PM   #16
scott shelton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sessa17
Not one person mentioned Hitchiker's Guide To the Galaxy does that mean that everyone thinks it will flop.
Without getting too deep in "when does summer really start" semantics, I'll just say that HITCHHIKER opens 4/29, and I don't personally feel it qualifies as a summer film.
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Old 03-14-05, 03:33 PM   #17
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did anyone see pics of jessica simpson in a bikini on the set of dukes of hazzard???


x500000000000000
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Old 03-14-05, 03:41 PM   #18
Shannon Nutt
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott shelton
Without getting too deep in "when does summer really start" semantics, I'll just say that HITCHHIKER opens 4/29, and I don't personally feel it qualifies as a summer film.
Yeah, I don't feel it's a summer movie either...but just for the record, I think HHGTTG will make about $75 million (although I'm sure it will DESERVE to make more...looks quite good) and SIN CITY will close in on $100 million plus (Hopefully!).
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Old 03-14-05, 04:09 PM   #19
Sessa17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott shelton
Without getting too deep in "when does summer really start" semantics, I'll just say that HITCHHIKER opens 4/29, and I don't personally feel it qualifies as a summer film.
You're right, I had no clue when it came out, I just assumed it was a summer movie.

Quote:
did anyone see pics of jessica simpson in a bikini on the set of dukes of hazzard???


x500000000000000
Eh. Still not even close to enough to get me to see that movie even if I was paid to see it.
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Old 03-14-05, 04:27 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shannon Nutt
and SIN CITY will close in on $100 million plus (Hopefully!).
If the masses will accept a (predominantly) B&W movie, yeah, hopefully it could pull in some nice numbers.
As for ROTS, I expect a huge opening (As usual) but will audiences flock repeatedly to see a movie where the good guys lose?
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Old 03-14-05, 04:42 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor Gonzo
Never do real well at this, but here's how I'll call em -

1. Star Wars Ep III ..... $330 mil
2. War of the Worlds ..... $290 mil
3. Batman Begins .........$250 mil
4. Fantastic Four .........$170 mil
5. Madagascar .............$160 mil
6. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory...$150 mil
7. Kingdom of Heaven.....$130 mil
8. Bewitched ................$125 mil
9. Stealth ....................$115 mil
10. Cinderella Man .........$100 mil

The field: Mr. and Mrs Smith, XXX:State of the Union, The Island, Aeon Flux, The Pink Panther, Fun With Dick and Jane

How do you see the summer pics stack up?
i think SW is a little low
Batman is high
FF4 is high
Bewitched is way high...this looks like another stepford wives bomb...she can't even wiggle her nose!!
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Old 03-14-05, 11:22 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott1598
FF4 is high
Bewitched is way high...this looks like another stepford wives bomb...she can't even wiggle her nose!!
As for FANTASTIC, I have yet to see anything that suggests it won't connect with the summer crowds. It feels like a big hit in the making. The kids will love it. It's big, colorful, and upbeat. That seems to be the right combo these days.

And BEWITCHED... The film is wayyyy different that what the ads are making it out to be. As far as what I've read and heard, the picture isn't going to be a straight-out TV remake like HAZZARD. It sounds more like a Charlie Kaufman script! Who knows how well that will go over.
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Old 03-15-05, 02:11 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott shelton
And BEWITCHED... The film is wayyyy different that what the ads are making it out to be. As far as what I've read and heard, the picture isn't going to be a straight-out TV remake like HAZZARD. It sounds more like a Charlie Kaufman script! Who knows how well that will go over.
I agree that it's probably not your average tv remake. Plus, it's not just a Nicole Kidman movie...it also star Will Ferrell who's star is definately rising. Throw in a impressive cast (shirley MaClaine and Michael Caine) I think it has potential to be a decent sized hit. I think Will Ferrell will be a big factor in that though.
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Old 03-15-05, 02:46 AM   #24
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at first I would have agreed that it is going to be a stepford wives 2, but then the idea of Will Ferrell being in it made me think twice. Ron made 85 or so million, so this one could land a bit around there or a bit more.
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Old 03-15-05, 06:28 AM   #25
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I'm not good at this either. My predictions are as follows.

Episode III - It will get to 300-325 million. My gut feeling is that with it being the last Star Wars film, Vader being in it, and a great trailer, it will beat AOTC. But that's about as far as I can go. How far it gets past that will depend on how good it is.

Batman Begins - I'll say 230 million.

War of the Worlds - 265 million.

Madagascar - 140 million.

Fantastic 4 - 145 million.

Kingdom of Heaven - 130 million.

Haven't seen much on the others, so I won't venture a guess.
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