Make your summer movie boxoffice predictions

Doctor Gonzo · 03-13-05, 11:31 PM

Never do real well at this, but here's how I'll call em -

1. Star Wars Ep III ..... $330 mil
2. War of the Worlds ..... $290 mil
3. Batman Begins .........$250 mil
4. Fantastic Four .........$170 mil
5. Madagascar .............$160 mil
6. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory...$150 mil
7. Kingdom of Heaven.....$130 mil
8. Bewitched ................$125 mil
9. Stealth ....................$115 mil
10. Cinderella Man .........$100 mil

The field: Mr. and Mrs Smith, XXX:State of the Union, The Island, Aeon Flux, The Pink Panther, Fun With Dick and Jane

How do you see the summer pics stack up?

RyoHazuki · 03-13-05, 11:38 PM

I don't think Fantastic Four will do that well. Other than that, those look pretty close to my predictions.

scott shelton · 03-13-05, 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Gonzo

The field: Mr. and Mrs Smith, XXX:State of the Union, The Island, Aeon Flux, The Pink Panther, Fun With Dick and Jane

PANTHER is September.

DICK AND JANE is Christmas.

Matthew Chmiel · 03-14-05, 12:22 AM

Quote:

PANTHER is September.

Isn't "Panther" lined up for Labor Day (meaning the end of summer)?

Third Baseman · 03-14-05, 12:32 AM

Pink Panther: 23 September 2005

jaeufraser · 03-14-05, 12:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel

Isn't "Panther" lined up for Labor Day (meaning the end of summer)?

It's set at the moment to open the 23rd of September. Labor Day might be the end of the summer, but it's not really considered summer movie season. In fact, it's pretty much a graveyard for bad movies as it's one of the worst box office weekends of the year. Anything opening on that day can pretty much be considered a dud.

Matthew Chmiel · 03-14-05, 12:37 AM

Quote:

Anything opening on that day can pretty much be considered a dud.

A studio can have success on Labor Day, it's just that none of them ever try. The only studio in recent history that has tried and suceeded on Labor Day has been UA with Jeepers Creepers and Jeepers Creepers 2.

jaeufraser · 03-14-05, 12:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthew Chmiel

A studio can have success on Labor Day, it's just that none of them ever try. The only studio in recent history that has tried and suceeded on Labor Day has been UA with Jeepers Creepers and Jeepers Creepers 2.

True, forgot about those flicks. The studios like to use Labor Day as dumping ground though. But considering how the box office seems to grow every year with more and more weekends that used to be dumping grounds sporting hits, I imagine in years that'll become less the case.

Artman · 03-14-05, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Gonzo

1. Star Wars Ep III ..... $330 mil
2. War of the Worlds ..... $290 mil
3. Batman Begins .........$250 mil
4. Fantastic Four .........$170 mil
5. Madagascar .............$160 mil
6. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory...$150 mil
7. Kingdom of Heaven.....$130 mil
8. Bewitched ................$125 mil
9. Stealth ....................$115 mil
10. Cinderella Man .........$100 mil

That's probably about where I'd put em. Put F4 at about 140...drop stealth under 100 mill...pretty close.

Mr. Cinema · 03-14-05, 01:57 PM

I would definitely drop FF. The more I see the trailers, the more I think this will bomb. I would add more to the last Star Wars movie we will ever see. I also think Bewitched will do around $80 mil. I hope War of the Worlds and Batman do extremely well.

Geofferson · 03-14-05, 02:04 PM

I think Kingdom of Heaven will be good, but I don't think it'll be a huge box office draw. Also, what about Mr. and Mrs. Smith? That shows potential.

raven56706 · 03-14-05, 02:13 PM

Madagascar looks funny... might do better then that..... I think FF will do alittle better then expected...

Shannon Nutt · 03-14-05, 02:21 PM

Dead on with Episode III and War Of The Worlds.

I think FF4 is only going to pull in about $80 million, tops; and I think Stealth isn't going to pull in much, either...maybe $60 million tops.

Also, even if it's great, no way Batman Begins pulls in $250 million...$200 million would be a great number, think closer to $175 million.

Missing from your list:

The Longest Yard - should pull in at least $150 million
The Bad News Bears - $80 Million
The Dukes Of Hazzard - $125 Million

deadlax · 03-14-05, 02:37 PM

Bad News Bears will make more than Dukes of Hazzard. Probably around the same thing as The Longest Yard.

Sessa17 · 03-14-05, 02:59 PM

Not one person mentioned Hitchiker's Guide To the Galaxy does that mean that everyone thinks it will flop.

I think it will do a solid $80 million.

I don't think The Longest Yard will do $150, I think that is way to high, or at least I hope so.

scott shelton · 03-14-05, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sessa17

Not one person mentioned Hitchiker's Guide To the Galaxy does that mean that everyone thinks it will flop.

Without getting too deep in "when does summer really start" semantics, I'll just say that HITCHHIKER opens 4/29, and I don't personally feel it qualifies as a summer film.

raven56706 · 03-14-05, 03:33 PM

did anyone see pics of jessica simpson in a bikini on the set of dukes of hazzard???

x500000000000000

Shannon Nutt · 03-14-05, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scott shelton

Without getting too deep in "when does summer really start" semantics, I'll just say that HITCHHIKER opens 4/29, and I don't personally feel it qualifies as a summer film.

Yeah, I don't feel it's a summer movie either...but just for the record, I think HHGTTG will make about $75 million (although I'm sure it will DESERVE to make more...looks quite good) and SIN CITY will close in on $100 million plus (Hopefully!).

Sessa17 · 03-14-05, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scott shelton

Without getting too deep in "when does summer really start" semantics, I'll just say that HITCHHIKER opens 4/29, and I don't personally feel it qualifies as a summer film.

You're right, I had no clue when it came out, I just assumed it was a summer movie.

Quote:

did anyone see pics of jessica simpson in a bikini on the set of dukes of hazzard???

x500000000000000

Eh. Still not even close to enough to get me to see that movie even if I was paid to see it.

Mondo Kane · 03-14-05, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shannon Nutt

and SIN CITY will close in on $100 million plus (Hopefully!).

If the masses will accept a (predominantly) B&W movie, yeah, hopefully it could pull in some nice numbers.
As for ROTS, I expect a huge opening (As usual) but will audiences flock repeatedly to see a movie where the good guys lose?

scott1598 · 03-14-05, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Gonzo

Never do real well at this, but here's how I'll call em -

1. Star Wars Ep III ..... $330 mil
2. War of the Worlds ..... $290 mil
3. Batman Begins .........$250 mil
4. Fantastic Four .........$170 mil
5. Madagascar .............$160 mil
6. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory...$150 mil
7. Kingdom of Heaven.....$130 mil
8. Bewitched ................$125 mil
9. Stealth ....................$115 mil
10. Cinderella Man .........$100 mil

The field: Mr. and Mrs Smith, XXX:State of the Union, The Island, Aeon Flux, The Pink Panther, Fun With Dick and Jane

How do you see the summer pics stack up?

i think SW is a little low
Batman is high
FF4 is high
Bewitched is way high...this looks like another stepford wives bomb...she can't even wiggle her nose!!

scott shelton · 03-14-05, 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scott1598

FF4 is high
Bewitched is way high...this looks like another stepford wives bomb...she can't even wiggle her nose!!

As for FANTASTIC, I have yet to see anything that suggests it won't connect with the summer crowds. It feels like a big hit in the making. The kids will love it. It's big, colorful, and upbeat. That seems to be the right combo these days.

And BEWITCHED... The film is wayyyy different that what the ads are making it out to be. As far as what I've read and heard, the picture isn't going to be a straight-out TV remake like HAZZARD. It sounds more like a Charlie Kaufman script! Who knows how well that will go over.

jaeufraser · 03-15-05, 02:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scott shelton

And BEWITCHED... The film is wayyyy different that what the ads are making it out to be. As far as what I've read and heard, the picture isn't going to be a straight-out TV remake like HAZZARD. It sounds more like a Charlie Kaufman script! Who knows how well that will go over.

I agree that it's probably not your average tv remake. Plus, it's not just a Nicole Kidman movie...it also star Will Ferrell who's star is definately rising. Throw in a impressive cast (shirley MaClaine and Michael Caine) I think it has potential to be a decent sized hit. I think Will Ferrell will be a big factor in that though.

Jackskeleton · 03-15-05, 02:46 AM

at first I would have agreed that it is going to be a stepford wives 2, but then the idea of Will Ferrell being in it made me think twice. Ron made 85 or so million, so this one could land a bit around there or a bit more.

Terrell · 03-15-05, 06:28 AM

I'm not good at this either. My predictions are as follows.

Episode III - It will get to 300-325 million. My gut feeling is that with it being the last Star Wars film, Vader being in it, and a great trailer, it will beat AOTC. But that's about as far as I can go. How far it gets past that will depend on how good it is.

Batman Begins - I'll say 230 million.

War of the Worlds - 265 million.

Madagascar - 140 million.

Fantastic 4 - 145 million.

Kingdom of Heaven - 130 million.

Haven't seen much on the others, so I won't venture a guess.

03-13-05, 11:31 PM	#1
Doctor Gonzo DVD Talk Special Edition Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: USDA Zone 6a Posts: 1,613	Make your summer movie boxoffice predictions Never do real well at this, but here's how I'll call em - 1. Star Wars Ep III ..... $330 mil 2. War of the Worlds ..... $290 mil 3. Batman Begins .........$250 mil 4. Fantastic Four .........$170 mil 5. Madagascar .............$160 mil 6. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory...$150 mil 7. Kingdom of Heaven.....$130 mil 8. Bewitched ................$125 mil 9. Stealth ....................$115 mil 10. Cinderella Man .........$100 mil The field: Mr. and Mrs Smith, XXX:State of the Union, The Island, Aeon Flux, The Pink Panther, Fun With Dick and Jane How do you see the summer pics stack up? __________________ My Alternate Oscars - Best Picture 1927-28 > Wings 1928-29 > Broadway Melody 1929-30 > All Quiet On The Western Front 1930-31 > Frankenstein 1931-32 > Grand Hotel 1932-33 > King Kong 1934 > It Happened One Night 1935 > Mutiny On The Bounty 1936 > The Great Ziegfeld 1937 > The Awful Truth 1938 > The Adventures of Robin Hood 1939 > Gone With The Wind -- Next: The 40s Last edited by Doctor Gonzo; 03-13-05 at 11:34 PM.

03-13-05, 11:38 PM	#2
RyoHazuki DVD Talk Hall of Fame Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Phoenix Posts: 8,086	I don't think Fantastic Four will do that well. Other than that, those look pretty close to my predictions. __________________ What did the Red Hot Chili Peppers do when their manager didn't like their latest tracks? Spoiler: The got long sleeves. - Neil Hamburger Xbox Live: CookinBooks

03-14-05, 12:32 AM	#5
Third Baseman DVD Talk Special Edition Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Kentucky Posts: 1,628	Pink Panther: 23 September 2005 __________________ RaisedByKubrick.com [] HBLBaseball [] ATHBaseball [] "Telling Redsfan a baseball season is 162 games is like telling a shark, 'If you've seen one bloody tuna, you've seen 'em all.'"

03-14-05, 01:57 PM	#10
Mr. Cinema DVD Talk Legend Join Date: Oct 1999 Posts: 16,954	I would definitely drop FF. The more I see the trailers, the more I think this will bomb. I would add more to the last Star Wars movie we will ever see. I also think Bewitched will do around $80 mil. I hope War of the Worlds and Batman do extremely well. __________________ 1. Side Effects • 2. - • 3. - • 4. - • 5. - • 6. - • My Countdown Counting down to: Black Swan

03-14-05, 02:59 PM	#15
Sessa17 DVD Talk Limited Edition Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: NJ, the place where smiles go to die Posts: 7,393	Not one person mentioned Hitchiker's Guide To the Galaxy does that mean that everyone thinks it will flop. I think it will do a solid $80 million. I don't think The Longest Yard will do $150, I think that is way to high, or at least I hope so. __________________ "I got the shotgun, you got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right?" - Omar Proudly doing my part to support the economy

03-14-05, 02:04 PM	#11
Geofferson DVD Talk Hero Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: TechNoir Posts: 36,457	I think Kingdom of Heaven will be good, but I don't think it'll be a huge box office draw. Also, what about Mr. and Mrs. Smith? That shows potential.

03-14-05, 02:13 PM	#12
raven56706 DVD Talk Legend Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Back in the Good Ole USA Posts: 18,842	Madagascar looks funny... might do better then that..... I think FF will do alittle better then expected...

03-14-05, 02:21 PM	#13
Shannon Nutt DVD Talk Hall of Fame Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Pittsburgh, PA Posts: 9,754	Dead on with Episode III and War Of The Worlds. I think FF4 is only going to pull in about $80 million, tops; and I think Stealth isn't going to pull in much, either...maybe $60 million tops. Also, even if it's great, no way Batman Begins pulls in $250 million...$200 million would be a great number, think closer to $175 million. Missing from your list: The Longest Yard - should pull in at least $150 million The Bad News Bears - $80 Million The Dukes Of Hazzard - $125 Million

03-14-05, 02:37 PM	#14
deadlax DVD Talk Gold Edition Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Decatur, GA Posts: 2,146	Bad News Bears will make more than Dukes of Hazzard. Probably around the same thing as The Longest Yard.

03-14-05, 03:33 PM	#17
raven56706 DVD Talk Legend Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Back in the Good Ole USA Posts: 18,842	did anyone see pics of jessica simpson in a bikini on the set of dukes of hazzard??? x500000000000000

03-15-05, 02:46 AM	#24
Jackskeleton DVD Talk Godfather Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: City of the lakers.. riots.. and drug dealing cops.. los(t) Angel(e)s. ca. Posts: 52,228	at first I would have agreed that it is going to be a stepford wives 2, but then the idea of Will Ferrell being in it made me think twice. Ron made 85 or so million, so this one could land a bit around there or a bit more. __________________ *OTHER FORUM TEAM 7 leader*I will not say them here nor there. I will not say them anywhere. I will not say those Words you twit. I will not, will not sayI quit! Leaving a dark wet stain where your brain used to be? weird..tv? The bank is worth the risk

03-15-05, 06:28 AM	#25
Terrell DVD Talk Ultimate Edition Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Carrollton, Ga Posts: 4,797	I'm not good at this either. My predictions are as follows. Episode III - It will get to 300-325 million. My gut feeling is that with it being the last Star Wars film, Vader being in it, and a great trailer, it will beat AOTC. But that's about as far as I can go. How far it gets past that will depend on how good it is. Batman Begins - I'll say 230 million. War of the Worlds - 265 million. Madagascar - 140 million. Fantastic 4 - 145 million. Kingdom of Heaven - 130 million. Haven't seen much on the others, so I won't venture a guess.