DVDTalk HSX Leaderboard: 8/13 (Box Office Game)
08-15-04, 11:49 AM
#26
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Adjust estimates (based on Box Office Mojo's numbers):
AVSP -- 110.93 (+26.57)
PDIA2 -- 80.97 (+16.09)
YUGIO -- 27.14 (+9.06)
Edit: looks like the call/put strike price was pretty close on all three, so no big money will be made on those.
AVSP -- 110.93 (+26.57)
PDIA2 -- 80.97 (+16.09)
YUGIO -- 27.14 (+9.06)
Edit: looks like the call/put strike price was pretty close on all three, so no big money will be made on those.
Last edited by Groucho; 08-15-04 at 11:54 AM.
08-15-04, 11:51 AM
#27
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Both YUGIO and AVSP had below a 2.5 multiplier.
The only one that should have good legs is PDIA2. I will not be risking a post adjust short on it since I tried that with CINDR and paid the price on it. Those movies for girls can be tough
The good thing is that it looks like I will hit close to my goal of $33 million by sunday night
The only one that should have good legs is PDIA2. I will not be risking a post adjust short on it since I tried that with CINDR and paid the price on it. Those movies for girls can be tough
The good thing is that it looks like I will hit close to my goal of $33 million by sunday night
Last edited by gcribbs; 08-15-04 at 12:12 PM.
08-15-04, 04:03 PM
#29
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Well they don't move till reset tonight so you shouldn't be in any real rush to dump them. Just make sure you do it before midnight. they adjust around 5 or 6
08-15-04, 11:17 PM
#32
DVD Talk Legend
Originally posted by orangerory
On my non dvdtalk account I shorted 50,000 shares of AVP. Ouch - lost a cool million there...
On my non dvdtalk account I shorted 50,000 shares of AVP. Ouch - lost a cool million there...
08-16-04, 02:19 PM
#33
DVD Talk Special Edition
A question for you day-traders:
How much has AVP dropped today? I was able to check for the first time a second ago and it is down 12.60 today. Is that its low point for the day because I am thinking about covering my short? Thanks.
How much has AVP dropped today? I was able to check for the first time a second ago and it is down 12.60 today. Is that its low point for the day because I am thinking about covering my short? Thanks.
08-17-04, 12:53 AM
#37
DVD Talk Legend
http://www.comingsoon.net/weekendwarrior/2004/aug20.php
estimated from comingsoon- $14.8 million for OPENW. might be worth a short at current prices and worth a buy at around $40 IMO.
estimated from comingsoon- $14.8 million for OPENW. might be worth a short at current prices and worth a buy at around $40 IMO.
08-17-04, 08:56 AM
#38
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I'm sitting on it short right now, but I don't care if it's at 50 on the weekend, I'm longing. I just have a feeling about it. No legs though. I saw the movie and it's a downer.
08-17-04, 11:10 AM
#39
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Don't forget that it is going to have this weekends totals added to existing totals, which are over $2M at this point, for the adjusted price on Sunday. I for one think that it is going to at least hit its strike price of $10M this weekend.
08-18-04, 01:23 PM
#41
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Although I've been getting bent over a table lately, I've finally made it to $6 million. I think five or six people beat me to it and I dropped down a few places. AVP and now EXOR4 have just been screwing me over, I need to find something else to stick some money into to even it out. I've just been really off picking movies lately.
08-19-04, 02:52 AM
#42
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After doing absolutely horribly ever since Shrek 4 killed me, finally had some luck. Shorting Open Water and longing Without a Paddle have been paying off pretty well so far. Considering their current prices, if they don't completely turn around they both might pay off well holding them into the weekend.
I can't help but think people are seriously overestimating Open Water. From all I've heard and seen about it, it just doesn't look like it's a film that's going to generate much mainstream interest. Seems like people are expecting it to just go crazy and make over $15 mil this weekend. If it does, I'll be utterly shocked.
And it's exactly the reverse for Without a Paddle. I've seen people saying there are no actors to draw interest in the movie, it looks stupid, etc. Seth Green, Matthew Lilliard and Burt Reynolds are a pretty big draw. It seems to me that people were all overestimating Harold and Kumar, and since that bombed, everyone is certain this film will share the same fate. There hasn't been anything to really appeal to the American Pie crowd this summer.
Again, I'll be shocked if this does under $10 mil this weekend. Between Seth Green, the large advertising blitz (Big Brother, talk show circuit, and whatnot) and the complete lack of any popular teen comedies the past couple months, I've got a feeling that picking this up long for $30ish is a steal.
I can't help but think people are seriously overestimating Open Water. From all I've heard and seen about it, it just doesn't look like it's a film that's going to generate much mainstream interest. Seems like people are expecting it to just go crazy and make over $15 mil this weekend. If it does, I'll be utterly shocked.
And it's exactly the reverse for Without a Paddle. I've seen people saying there are no actors to draw interest in the movie, it looks stupid, etc. Seth Green, Matthew Lilliard and Burt Reynolds are a pretty big draw. It seems to me that people were all overestimating Harold and Kumar, and since that bombed, everyone is certain this film will share the same fate. There hasn't been anything to really appeal to the American Pie crowd this summer.
Again, I'll be shocked if this does under $10 mil this weekend. Between Seth Green, the large advertising blitz (Big Brother, talk show circuit, and whatnot) and the complete lack of any popular teen comedies the past couple months, I've got a feeling that picking this up long for $30ish is a steal.
08-19-04, 03:05 AM
#43
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I think it's going to do atleast 10 million. the advertisement is there and they did have the teen awards promo for it all. It will pull in just enough to get it over the 10 million mark. this weekend doesn't look to good on anything . Excorist really doesn't look like it will pull in people if it wasn't for the name.
taking that hint on HERO really screwed me over for the week so far.
taking that hint on HERO really screwed me over for the week so far.
08-19-04, 05:20 PM
#44
DVD Talk Platinum Edition
I've been taking a hit today, shorting WOPAD but I think I'll be holding it over the weekend. I do think it'll be the next HKGWC.
Also, I just noticed I have a 6,500% gain on BWIRB - I figured I couldn't lose much by longing when they were at $0.06 - possibly the best % gain I'll have, ever.
Also, I just noticed I have a 6,500% gain on BWIRB - I figured I couldn't lose much by longing when they were at $0.06 - possibly the best % gain I'll have, ever.
08-19-04, 05:29 PM
#45
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I've had my first Thurday in the black ever. I usually charge out of the gate and then leak money on Thurs and Fri. I'm hoping this Will Ferrell IPO has a strong day tommorow.
I'm currently having doubts about OPENW now too. Especially with the popular notion that WOPAD is going to be a sleeper hit.
I'm currently having doubts about OPENW now too. Especially with the popular notion that WOPAD is going to be a sleeper hit.
08-19-04, 07:31 PM
#46
DVD Talk Legend
Openw could be big. I just am not feeling strongly about it. I do not feel a huge buzz about it.
GRDST going wide this weekend was bad. I was hoping for another week before going wide.
I made some money off it at least.
I am having my first red day in a while today.
I am hoping to turn it around and get into the black by reset.
GRDST going wide this weekend was bad. I was hoping for another week before going wide.
I made some money off it at least.
I am having my first red day in a while today.
I am hoping to turn it around and get into the black by reset.
08-20-04, 09:05 AM
#48
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Alright, here we go...my guts and what I think they'll adjust to.
Open Water - Long (55)
Exorcist 4 - Slight Short (39)
Without a Paddle - Slight Short (29)
Garden State - Pass (12.5)
Benji - Slight Short (6.3)
Open Water is the only one I feel good about right now without waiting for theater reports.
Open Water - Long (55)
Exorcist 4 - Slight Short (39)
Without a Paddle - Slight Short (29)
Garden State - Pass (12.5)
Benji - Slight Short (6.3)
Open Water is the only one I feel good about right now without waiting for theater reports.
08-20-04, 02:16 PM
#49
DVD Talk Legend
my picks for the weekend:
EXOR4 -Long I think it can hit 15-18 million.
WOPAD- Long. I think it can hit 12-15 million.
GRDST- I think it can delist at a higher number although I do not think it will adjust to more than the current price so I will pass. 2.5-3 million.
OPENW- I am passing. This could do great numbers(over $20 or bad numbers $10 million). I am passing on this one also.
Benji- This one is tough to guess. The risks are small so why not long it. if it opens in more theaters in the next few weeks this could delist above the current price. The worse case is it delists at zero and you lose a bit over $300k.
EXOR4 -Long I think it can hit 15-18 million.
WOPAD- Long. I think it can hit 12-15 million.
GRDST- I think it can delist at a higher number although I do not think it will adjust to more than the current price so I will pass. 2.5-3 million.
OPENW- I am passing. This could do great numbers(over $20 or bad numbers $10 million). I am passing on this one also.
Benji- This one is tough to guess. The risks are small so why not long it. if it opens in more theaters in the next few weeks this could delist above the current price. The worse case is it delists at zero and you lose a bit over $300k.
Last edited by gcribbs; 08-20-04 at 02:20 PM.
08-20-04, 02:34 PM
#50
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This more "pull the carpet out from under you" Gcribb tactics or this actually your picks for the weekened? 