DVDTalk HSX Leaderboard: 8/6 (Box Office Game)
#52
DVD Talk Legend
Originally posted by Triple S
I think AVSP will be the first official movie that I boycott because of HSX and the damage it causes me inside.
I think AVSP will be the first official movie that I boycott because of HSX and the damage it causes me inside.
Or do you have it short now
#54
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I'm still hurting because of AVP. but atleast it's a nice 250k back into safe ground. still has me in the hole for close to a million right from the crappy weekend.
#55
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Today's been very back and forth for me. When I first checked my port this morning I was up quite a bit, and now I am further in the red than I had been up all day Team America is hurting me quite a bit.
#57
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Wow, what a crappy end to a day. the stock just went down -3.00 crap, and here I thought I was making my money back on AVSP
#59
DVD Talk Legend
Another decent day for me. I can not find anything I like today so I might not get much of an increase since I do not have 22 million invested in anything at all.
#61
DVD Talk Legend
Originally posted by Jackskeleton
Wow, what a crappy end to a day. the stock just went down -3.00 crap, and here I thought I was making my money back on AVSP
Wow, what a crappy end to a day. the stock just went down -3.00 crap, and here I thought I was making my money back on AVSP
#62
DVD Talk Legend
Originally posted by Triple S
Mini milestone - I'm #1 Week-to-date so far this week.
Mini milestone - I'm #1 Week-to-date so far this week.
$1 million gain for a $2 million port is a great 50% gain.
For me it is less than 5%. I am up 10% for the week right now which is a nice $2.5 million gain so far.
The good thing is that the season to date totals are based on the port size at the start of the season which for me was a bit over $2 million. This give me an outside chance to be in it till the end.
#63
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Key note about AVP. Fox is doing a special on it on thursday. I'm sure that will either bounce it high one way or low another way. I just want to make some of my money back.. I lost 1 million to that stock alone.
#64
DVD Talk Legend
I am trying to help everyone so I might go long on a movie this weekend
I am thinking about PDIA2. I am usually wrong but I think it is undervalued so I will see what I can do with it
I figure the first one opened with a $22.8 million and then you add in around $7 million from wed/thrus and it looks like a nice adjust to me.
Of course with my track record maybe it will end up with a $5 million weekend
Can I be wrong with 4 openers
I am thinking about PDIA2. I am usually wrong but I think it is undervalued so I will see what I can do with it
I figure the first one opened with a $22.8 million and then you add in around $7 million from wed/thrus and it looks like a nice adjust to me.
Of course with my track record maybe it will end up with a $5 million weekend
Can I be wrong with 4 openers
#65
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Princess Diaries 2.
I took A Cinderella Story into a big factor with this research because it's the same demo and for the most part, the same main theme (minus the whole "owning a country" part). Anyway, the reviews are comparable too so far on RT. BAD. Mind you, these are reviews from (mostly) guys AND there's only 14 up as of right now.
A Cind Story opened with a 13.6 weekend. PDIA2 does not have the benefit of opening in Summer, and for some ludicris reason, opens on a Wednesday. Plus, plus...I have no idea what this movie is about. I know it's probably because I don't watch Disney Channel, etc, but I knew about the first movie without even playing HSX. Final post script, while most action type movie sequels do well, most Disney-ish movie sequels are very BLEH. That is if they don't go straight to video.
So, even giving everything the benefit of the doubt,
A Cinderella Story = $13.6M
+ 10% Sequel
+ 10% Julie Andrews name alone
+ 5% counter-programming to AVSP
--------------------------------
Est weekend PDIA2 = $17
+ Est Wed-Thurs Total = ($5 + $4)
---------------------------------
Est Adjust = $58.3
Recommendation: Pass or Short (I was being generous.)
I took A Cinderella Story into a big factor with this research because it's the same demo and for the most part, the same main theme (minus the whole "owning a country" part). Anyway, the reviews are comparable too so far on RT. BAD. Mind you, these are reviews from (mostly) guys AND there's only 14 up as of right now.
A Cind Story opened with a 13.6 weekend. PDIA2 does not have the benefit of opening in Summer, and for some ludicris reason, opens on a Wednesday. Plus, plus...I have no idea what this movie is about. I know it's probably because I don't watch Disney Channel, etc, but I knew about the first movie without even playing HSX. Final post script, while most action type movie sequels do well, most Disney-ish movie sequels are very BLEH. That is if they don't go straight to video.
So, even giving everything the benefit of the doubt,
A Cinderella Story = $13.6M
+ 10% Sequel
+ 10% Julie Andrews name alone
+ 5% counter-programming to AVSP
--------------------------------
Est weekend PDIA2 = $17
+ Est Wed-Thurs Total = ($5 + $4)
---------------------------------
Est Adjust = $58.3
Recommendation: Pass or Short (I was being generous.)
#68
Suspended
Counterpoint: Princess Diaries opened to $22.8 million in August, 2001 and ultimately grossed $108 million. And that was before millions of 6-year-old girls wore out their DVD players. Plus, as Groucho mentioned, Callum Blue really brings in the box office.
#69
DVD Talk Legend
Originally posted by Triple S
Princess Diaries 2.
I took A Cinderella Story into a big factor with this research because it's the same demo and for the most part, the same main theme (minus the whole "owning a country" part). Anyway, the reviews are comparable too so far on RT. BAD. Mind you, these are reviews from (mostly) guys AND there's only 14 up as of right now.
A Cind Story opened with a 13.6 weekend. PDIA2 does not have the benefit of opening in Summer, and for some ludicris reason, opens on a Wednesday. Plus, plus...I have no idea what this movie is about. I know it's probably because I don't watch Disney Channel, etc, but I knew about the first movie without even playing HSX. Final post script, while most action type movie sequels do well, most Disney-ish movie sequels are very BLEH. That is if they don't go straight to video.
So, even giving everything the benefit of the doubt,
A Cinderella Story = $13.6M
+ 10% Sequel
+ 10% Julie Andrews name alone
+ 5% counter-programming to AVSP
--------------------------------
Est weekend PDIA2 = $17
+ Est Wed-Thurs Total = ($5 + $4)
---------------------------------
Est Adjust = $58.3
Recommendation: Pass or Short (I was being generous.)
Princess Diaries 2.
I took A Cinderella Story into a big factor with this research because it's the same demo and for the most part, the same main theme (minus the whole "owning a country" part). Anyway, the reviews are comparable too so far on RT. BAD. Mind you, these are reviews from (mostly) guys AND there's only 14 up as of right now.
A Cind Story opened with a 13.6 weekend. PDIA2 does not have the benefit of opening in Summer, and for some ludicris reason, opens on a Wednesday. Plus, plus...I have no idea what this movie is about. I know it's probably because I don't watch Disney Channel, etc, but I knew about the first movie without even playing HSX. Final post script, while most action type movie sequels do well, most Disney-ish movie sequels are very BLEH. That is if they don't go straight to video.
So, even giving everything the benefit of the doubt,
A Cinderella Story = $13.6M
+ 10% Sequel
+ 10% Julie Andrews name alone
+ 5% counter-programming to AVSP
--------------------------------
Est weekend PDIA2 = $17
+ Est Wed-Thurs Total = ($5 + $4)
---------------------------------
Est Adjust = $58.3
Recommendation: Pass or Short (I was being generous.)
I would be shocked to see it open at less than $22.8 million for the weekend which is what the first one did. add in about $7 million for the two extra days and this is a long by around 14 or a nice $700k.
I think it will have good legs also.
#71
DVD Talk Legend
Originally posted by Triple S
Alright, I'm pulling a Kerry and longing. I full plan on blaming you guys if this flops! :P
Alright, I'm pulling a Kerry and longing. I full plan on blaming you guys if this flops! :P
I am willing to share the pain by owning 50K in shares long.
I keep going against my own promise to not hold movies thru the weekend. I just think this one has real chances based on the past performance of the first movie.
The free ticket in the dvd might help some also
#72
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Originally posted by gcribbs
The free ticket in the dvd might help some also
The free ticket in the dvd might help some also
Plus, aren't most free tickets invalid for the 1st two weekends of a new release? They are at all the theaters where I live.
#73
Suspended
Originally posted by kcbrett5
If its a free ticket, would it be included in the box office?
Plus, aren't most free tickets invalid for the 1st two weekends of a new release? They are at all the theaters where I live.
If its a free ticket, would it be included in the box office?
Plus, aren't most free tickets invalid for the 1st two weekends of a new release? They are at all the theaters where I live.
The free tickets that come with DVDs are usually valid begining on opening weekend and continuing for about a month.
#74
DVD Talk Legend
Based on all this talk including early reports on HSX about a decent Wednesday take I'm going long on PDIA2 as well. 68 and change seems like a real nice price after the first. Plus I already made a tidy profit on the Put & Call for it, some hopefully this will help me out. Of course me going long means it's the kiss of death for the movie. I haven't held a single movie through opening weekend that adjusted up.