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DVDTalk HSX Leaderboard: 8/6 (Box Office Game)

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DVDTalk HSX Leaderboard: 8/6 (Box Office Game)

Old 08-09-04, 01:09 PM
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I think AVSP will be the first official movie that I boycott because of HSX and the damage it causes me inside.
Old 08-09-04, 01:15 PM
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Originally posted by Triple S
I think AVSP will be the first official movie that I boycott because of HSX and the damage it causes me inside.
It went way up. Isn't that good news.

Or do you have it short now
Old 08-09-04, 01:18 PM
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Funny. Now ten minutes after I post this I'm up 100K on it. Maybe I'll catch a matinee.
Old 08-09-04, 02:04 PM
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I'm still hurting because of AVP. but atleast it's a nice 250k back into safe ground. still has me in the hole for close to a million right from the crappy weekend.
Old 08-09-04, 02:30 PM
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Today's been very back and forth for me. When I first checked my port this morning I was up quite a bit, and now I am further in the red than I had been up all day Team America is hurting me quite a bit.
Old 08-09-04, 07:09 PM
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This game is starting to become a waste of my time. No matter what I do - it's bad.
Old 08-10-04, 12:06 AM
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Wow, what a crappy end to a day. the stock just went down -3.00 crap, and here I thought I was making my money back on AVSP
Old 08-10-04, 02:06 AM
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Have not really done any major purchases in a while, just letting what I have ride, seems to be working out okay for me.
Old 08-10-04, 02:59 AM
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Another decent day for me. I can not find anything I like today so I might not get much of an increase since I do not have 22 million invested in anything at all.
Old 08-10-04, 08:37 AM
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Mini milestone - I'm #1 Week-to-date so far this week.
Old 08-10-04, 10:34 AM
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Originally posted by Jackskeleton
Wow, what a crappy end to a day. the stock just went down -3.00 crap, and here I thought I was making my money back on AVSP
And it's back up 3 this morning. I'm scared to jump on AVSP. I had it a few months ago and after all the bouncing it netted me around 10k. I expect it should move up and 86 seems like a nice price but man... every time I try and play an opener I get screwed. I do a lot better jumping on the gravy train after opening weekend (or shorting the hell out of a stinker).
Old 08-10-04, 11:03 AM
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Originally posted by Triple S
Mini milestone - I'm #1 Week-to-date so far this week.
No more of those ever for me unless everyone does bad.

$1 million gain for a $2 million port is a great 50% gain.

For me it is less than 5%. I am up 10% for the week right now which is a nice $2.5 million gain so far.

The good thing is that the season to date totals are based on the port size at the start of the season which for me was a bit over $2 million. This give me an outside chance to be in it till the end.
Old 08-10-04, 01:08 PM
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Key note about AVP. Fox is doing a special on it on thursday. I'm sure that will either bounce it high one way or low another way. I just want to make some of my money back.. I lost 1 million to that stock alone.
Old 08-11-04, 08:55 AM
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I am trying to help everyone so I might go long on a movie this weekend

I am thinking about PDIA2. I am usually wrong but I think it is undervalued so I will see what I can do with it

I figure the first one opened with a $22.8 million and then you add in around $7 million from wed/thrus and it looks like a nice adjust to me.

Of course with my track record maybe it will end up with a $5 million weekend

Can I be wrong with 4 openers
Old 08-11-04, 09:29 AM
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Princess Diaries 2.

I took A Cinderella Story into a big factor with this research because it's the same demo and for the most part, the same main theme (minus the whole "owning a country" part). Anyway, the reviews are comparable too so far on RT. BAD. Mind you, these are reviews from (mostly) guys AND there's only 14 up as of right now.

A Cind Story opened with a 13.6 weekend. PDIA2 does not have the benefit of opening in Summer, and for some ludicris reason, opens on a Wednesday. Plus, plus...I have no idea what this movie is about. I know it's probably because I don't watch Disney Channel, etc, but I knew about the first movie without even playing HSX. Final post script, while most action type movie sequels do well, most Disney-ish movie sequels are very BLEH. That is if they don't go straight to video.

So, even giving everything the benefit of the doubt,

A Cinderella Story = $13.6M
+ 10% Sequel
+ 10% Julie Andrews name alone
+ 5% counter-programming to AVSP
--------------------------------
Est weekend PDIA2 = $17
+ Est Wed-Thurs Total = ($5 + $4)
---------------------------------
Est Adjust = $58.3

Recommendation: Pass or Short (I was being generous.)
Old 08-11-04, 09:33 AM
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You forgot:

+0.01% Fans of "Mason" from "Dead Like Me"
Old 08-11-04, 09:35 AM
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Oh snap! Mason's in this movie?

L-ONG
Old 08-11-04, 10:24 AM
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Counterpoint: Princess Diaries opened to $22.8 million in August, 2001 and ultimately grossed $108 million. And that was before millions of 6-year-old girls wore out their DVD players. Plus, as Groucho mentioned, Callum Blue really brings in the box office.
Old 08-11-04, 12:04 PM
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Originally posted by Triple S
Princess Diaries 2.

I took A Cinderella Story into a big factor with this research because it's the same demo and for the most part, the same main theme (minus the whole "owning a country" part). Anyway, the reviews are comparable too so far on RT. BAD. Mind you, these are reviews from (mostly) guys AND there's only 14 up as of right now.

A Cind Story opened with a 13.6 weekend. PDIA2 does not have the benefit of opening in Summer, and for some ludicris reason, opens on a Wednesday. Plus, plus...I have no idea what this movie is about. I know it's probably because I don't watch Disney Channel, etc, but I knew about the first movie without even playing HSX. Final post script, while most action type movie sequels do well, most Disney-ish movie sequels are very BLEH. That is if they don't go straight to video.

So, even giving everything the benefit of the doubt,

A Cinderella Story = $13.6M
+ 10% Sequel
+ 10% Julie Andrews name alone
+ 5% counter-programming to AVSP
--------------------------------
Est weekend PDIA2 = $17
+ Est Wed-Thurs Total = ($5 + $4)
---------------------------------
Est Adjust = $58.3

Recommendation: Pass or Short (I was being generous.)
actually it will do at least what the first did IMO. The dvd is a big seller and has converted new fans.

I would be shocked to see it open at less than $22.8 million for the weekend which is what the first one did. add in about $7 million for the two extra days and this is a long by around 14 or a nice $700k.

I think it will have good legs also.
Old 08-11-04, 01:48 PM
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Alright, I'm pulling a Kerry and longing. I full plan on blaming you guys if this flops! :P
Old 08-11-04, 02:13 PM
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Originally posted by Triple S
Alright, I'm pulling a Kerry and longing. I full plan on blaming you guys if this flops! :P
Others have in the past so you might have to stand in line

I am willing to share the pain by owning 50K in shares long.

I keep going against my own promise to not hold movies thru the weekend. I just think this one has real chances based on the past performance of the first movie.

The free ticket in the dvd might help some also
Old 08-11-04, 02:57 PM
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Originally posted by gcribbs


The free ticket in the dvd might help some also
If its a free ticket, would it be included in the box office?

Plus, aren't most free tickets invalid for the 1st two weekends of a new release? They are at all the theaters where I live.
Old 08-11-04, 03:51 PM
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Originally posted by kcbrett5
If its a free ticket, would it be included in the box office?

Plus, aren't most free tickets invalid for the 1st two weekends of a new release? They are at all the theaters where I live.
I think the free tickets count as box office revenue -- it's the DVD studio that's paying for the tickets, so it counts as revenue for the movie studio. It's all fancy accounting tricks, of course, but the important thing is that for purposes of HSX, it counts.

The free tickets that come with DVDs are usually valid begining on opening weekend and continuing for about a month.
Old 08-11-04, 06:30 PM
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Based on all this talk including early reports on HSX about a decent Wednesday take I'm going long on PDIA2 as well. 68 and change seems like a real nice price after the first. Plus I already made a tidy profit on the Put & Call for it, some hopefully this will help me out. Of course me going long means it's the kiss of death for the movie. I haven't held a single movie through opening weekend that adjusted up.
Old 08-11-04, 07:56 PM
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Man.. one bad weekend. It' sbeen hard trying to recoup my $1.2M lost.

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