gcribbs

every stock I own is actually a short.

Lets you know what I think about this weekend.

Sorry Jack I shorted AVSP

JasonF

I went long on both openers. Sucks to be me.

This week, the Friday Number Analysis is based on the numbers reported by Showbizdata.com. Thanks, showbizdata.com!

========
Collateral Friday numbers: $8.20
Internal Multiplier: 2.5 Weekend Estimate: $20.50
COLAT Halt: $84.27 Adjust: $59.45 Change: ($24.82)
COLCA Strike: $30.00 Halt: $5.12 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($5.12)
COLPU Strike: $30.00 Halt: $2.00 Delist: $9.50 Change: $7.50

Internal Multiplier: 2.7 Weekend Estimate: $22.14
COLAT Halt: $84.27 Adjust: $64.21 Change: ($20.06)
COLCA Strike: $30.00 Halt: $5.12 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($5.12)
COLPU Strike: $30.00 Halt: $2.00 Delist: $7.86 Change: $5.86

Internal Multiplier: 2.9 Weekend Estimate: $23.78
COLAT Halt: $84.27 Adjust: $68.96 Change: ($15.31)
COLCA Strike: $30.00 Halt: $5.12 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($5.12)
COLPU Strike: $30.00 Halt: $2.00 Delist: $6.22 Change: $4.22

Internal Multiplier: 3.1 Weekend Estimate: $25.42
COLAT Halt: $84.27 Adjust: $73.72 Change: ($10.55)
COLCA Strike: $30.00 Halt: $5.12 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($5.12)
COLPU Strike: $30.00 Halt: $2.00 Delist: $4.58 Change: $2.58
=========
Little Black Book Friday numbers: $2.80
Internal Multiplier: 2.5 Weekend Estimate: $7.00
LBLBK Halt: $25.09 Adjust: $19.58 Change: ($5.52)
LBLCA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $1.74 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.74)
LBLPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $2.13 Delist: $3.25 Change: $1.12

Internal Multiplier: 2.7 Weekend Estimate: $7.29
LBLBK Halt: $25.09 Adjust: $21.14 Change: ($3.95)
LBLCA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $1.74 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.74)
LBLPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $2.13 Delist: $2.71 Change: $0.58

Internal Multiplier: 2.9 Weekend Estimate: $7.83
LBLBK Halt: $25.09 Adjust: $22.71 Change: ($2.38)
LBLCA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $1.74 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.74)
LBLPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $2.13 Delist: $2.17 Change: $0.04

Internal Multiplier: 3.1 Weekend Estimate: $8.37
LBLBK Halt: $25.09 Adjust: $24.27 Change: ($0.82)
LBLCA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $1.74 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.74)
LBLPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $2.13 Delist: $1.63 Change: ($0.50)

(Also posted at HSJ.

gcribbs

You will not be alone. I am sure the Tom Cruise effect got many people to go long.

Thanks for the numbers.

I do think it will have a 3.2 to 3.3 multiplier because of Cruise

devilshalo

Mano

Strong agreement.

I think it is finally time for me to stop trying to guess on the openers. Everytime I start to do well up comes a movie I think is going to make me some major loot, only to see it bomb (in regards to my hopes that is). Oh well. &

gcribbs

I have lost money on every opener I have ever played.

I do not like playing the openers and waiting to hear if I will make or lose money.

coladar

I'm actually rather glad to see the numbers Collateral pulled in on Friday. I shorted the call when it was at $7.00, and never sold it. So even if I lost a boatload playing the stock for the movie, I'm just glad I didn't keep the stock long to play the weekend adjust. That would have been extremely painful from the looks of it.

Thankfully shorting it's call in addition to playing Little Black Book right will help me recoup some of my losses over the last week. I need it... Down 9% for the week now.

JayPen

Just signed up.

DVDTalk_JayPen

gcribbs

Good Luck

Now we are at 82

TomOpus

Slowly moving up to 100...

Heat

I'm sort of spinning my wheels, trying to figure out which direction to take my portfolio.

What are you guys investing in?

gcribbs

a bit of everything on commission free time. I move in and out of stocks as soon as I think they slow down.

I made $1.2 million today with daytrading. I am up $86k so far for the next day.

I am not sure what I am going to invest in for the night yet.

Jackskeleton

Wow, today I managed to stay at 6k in the black Oh man, adjust tomorrow is going to hurt so bad with Collateral.

Oh well, my first attempt at the openers and I pick a dud. Lets see if AVSP actually moves up to any point where I might actually break even.

gcribbs

saturday#s: Collateral 9.7 Village 6.5 Little Black book 2.5


from HSX message board

movieking

My streak continues! I longed Collateral, and will take quite a hit when the readjustments come in.

Jackskeleton

Well now. in the red for 1 million on one day.. I'm going to be walking funny for a while..

TomOpus

Ouch, Jack!

I'm up H$410K thanks to HITCH & OPENW

Nice to be in the black again

MrN

I actually didn't think LBLBK would do as much as it did. Still, $200K is nothing to scoff at I suppose. But, certainly not enough to help me catch up with gcribbs.

Looking at next weekend - AVSP is taking quite a drop. I think its probably undervalued right now but I won't be gambling with it. YUGIO is tempting me to go long but since its dropping right now I'll wait.

coladar

Ugh, I thought AvP was a sure bet at $81. Being PG-13, I can't picture it having that horrible of an opening. Looks like most think otherwise, as I've lost $200,000 on it today. Back under $3mil.

gcribbs

it will bounce back IMO.


I should be able to do close to $30 million.

Although I do think PDIA2 is the better bet this weekend since the first movie did $22 million and went on to do $108 Million domestic BO.

B.A.

Open Water and Garden State are killing me. I would let them both go, but something in the back of my mind is telling me to hold on. These last few weeks haven't been very kind.

B.A.

Open Water is finally back on the upswing.

gcribbs

Kind of a slow upswing

I think it should bounce back.

An ok day so far. I got out of Colat too soon and walked away from some money. I do this all the time however.

I am still up around 500K so I can live with it

Jonny2k1

I'm still hurting from the Village fallout. I don't know how I could have been so wrong on that one. It happens though. Luckily I didn't have too much invested in the stock itself, but I did have quite a bit in the call.

AVSP is quite rocky as of late, but I will hold onto it for a while. There is no way I will actually hold it over the weekend though, because I've always been screwed holding long on opening weekends.

I thought LBLBK would have done better. I guess I am just a sucker for romantic comedies, or I had my Brittany Murphy blinders on.

gcribbs

For those who do not read the boards at HSX- CCASE is rumored to be the next Tom Hanks movie.

Might be worth a buy for awhile