It's back! DVDTalk HSX Leaderboard: 7/30 (Box Office Game)

[Groucho]

Here is the leaderboard for the DVDTalk HSX League as of 7/30. Interested in joining? Check the next post down for rules and other information.

Full Rankings (By Net Worth)

Rank	HSX Username	Net Worth	Week to Date	Last Week's Rank	Change
1	Dvdtalk_gcribbs	H$22,434,230.51	25.57%	2	1
2	DVDTalk_JasonF	H$21,252,024.46	15.33%	1	(1)
3	DVDTalk_mrn	H$11,456,497.64	4.91%	4	1
4	DVDTALK_Jackskeleton	H$11,335,569.88	12.42%	5	1
5	DVDTalk_rushmore223	H$10,580,039.56	9.00%	6	1
6	devilshalo	H$10,373,632.00	12.13%	9	3
7	DVDTalk_BA	H$10,043,867.66	13.34%	7	0
8	DVDTalk_luckymepooh	H$8,407,158.19	10.26%	11	3
9	DVDTalk_TomOpus	H$8,165,275.68	-0.16%	8	(1)
10	DVDTalk_Movieking	H$7,808,651.58	-8.39%	3	(7)
11	DVDTalk_angusscrimm	H$7,097,936.65	-1.66%	10	(1)
12	DVDTalk_cruzness	H$6,856,512.24	10.00%	14	2
13	DVDTalk_genapp	H$6,288,489.90	16.39%	20	7
14	DVDtalk_glassdragon	H$6,044,597.85	3.84%	16	2
15	DVDTALK_mrglass	H$5,982,232.49	0.10%	15	0
16	Dvdtalk_filmerp	H$5,957,461.12	29.96%	26	10
17	DVDTalk_Corvin	H$5,515,560.09	0.02%	17	0
18	DVDTalk_DRG	H$5,510,412.89	1.06%	24	6
19	DVDTalk_Groucho2	H$5,399,935.22	15.13%	12	(7)
20	DVDTalk_solipsta	H$5,362,079.77	9.36%	19	(1)
21	dvdtalk_swh2	H$5,342,255.63	9.94%	22	1
22	DVDTalk_Jonny2k1	H$5,189,084.45	14.51%	23	1
23	DVDTalk_dimitrios3	H$5,129,188.97	21.39%	27	4
24	dvdtalk_swh	H$4,945,660.66	6.02%	25	1
25	DVDTalk_antennaball	H$4,929,677.68	4.37%	21	(4)
26	DVDTalk_mano365	H$4,722,117.61	14.63%	18	(8)
27	dvd_talk_tywebb1976	H$4,421,196.10	-19.24%	13	(14)
28	DVDTalk_kninestile	H$4,155,996.76	23.02%	39	11
29	DVDTalk_Mordred	H$4,145,805.07	9.05%	28	(1)
30	DVDTalk_vonner	H$3,687,642.40	7.59%	30	0
31	DVDTalk_TripleS	H$3,549,216.71	6.50%	55	24
32	DVDTalk_Suprmallet	H$3,527,634.46	4.10%	32	0
33	DVDTalk_vism	H$3,483,530.26	8.00%	41	8
34	DVDTalk_RyoHazuki	H$3,475,018.59	4.91%	34	0
35	DVDTalk_ivelostr2	H$3,423,562.87	0.17%	31	(4)
36	DVDTalk_johnglass	H$3,396,520.68	6.75%	38	2
37	DVDTalk_Trigger	H$3,358,670.58	3.91%	42	5
38	DVDTalk_Coladar	H$3,358,379.28	34.12%	NEW	N/A
39	DVDTalk_namja	H$3,290,635.28	0.31%	33	(6)
40	DVDTalk_j123vt_99	H$3,272,144.26	0.33%	29	(11)
41	DVDTalk_Mittman	H$3,081,064.99	2.92%	35	(6)
42	DVDTalk_flashburn	H$3,014,927.64	0.54%	40	(2)
43	DVDTalk_MFRONE	H$2,997,720.52	0.29%	36	(7)
44	DVDTalk_jnielsen	H$2,959,755.68	-2.06%	37	(7)
45	DVDTalk_dtcarson	H$2,952,029.88	7.01%	47	2
46	DVDTalk_Venom	H$2,929,088.43	4.98%	54	8
47	DVDTalk_kcbrett5	H$2,835,752.40	17.26%	NEW	N/A
48	DVDTalk_Mookyman	H$2,822,390.90	2.57%	43	(5)
49	DVDTalk_criptik28	H$2,800,822.45	5.08%	50	1
50	DVDTalk_shimmoril	H$2,740,373.46	2.30%	44	(6)
51	DVDTalk_DVD_Smurf	H$2,729,535.63	18.18%	52	1
52	DVDTalk_Heat	H$2,696,710.66	-0.22%	60	8
53	DVDTalk_DodgingCars	H$2,604,920.17	1.31%	48	(5)
54	DVDTalk_AlienRedrum	H$2,601,546.63	10.01%	53	(1)
55	DVDTalk_FredCDobbs	H$2,548,286.32	3.68%	51	(4)
56	dvdtalk_towbinaj	H$2,525,797.48	6.07%	65	9
57	jdpatri	H$2,523,418.23	1.50%	56	(1)
58	benedetto	H$2,506,385.37	13.96%	59	1
59	DVDTalk_Vryce	H$2,496,655.72	6.22%	46	(13)
60	DVDTalk_RoboDad	H$2,466,335.36	0.25%	49	(11)
61	DVDTalk_Jocko6577	H$2,433,324.35	-1.82%	45	(16)
62	DVDTalk_outcastja	H$2,375,931.31	-3.29%	63	1
63	DVDTalk_jawn	H$2,359,403.33	13.39%	NEW	N/A
64	DVDTalk_Sherbz	H$2,347,296.73	0.87%	57	(7)
65	DVDTalk_drjay	H$2,264,326.67	1.73%	61	(4)
66	JDubya	H$2,224,017.83	0.02%	58	(8)
67	DVDTalk_fnordboy	H$2,202,923.76	4.11%	64	(3)
68	DVDTalk_Anjanettea	H$2,154,301.74	0.74%	62	(6)
69	Dvdtalk_KumarJ	H$2,043,231.63	0.02%	66	(3)
70	DVDTalk_karnblack	H$2,035,490.53	0.06%	67	(3)
71	DVDTALK_majorjoe23	H$2,025,619.85	0.02%	68	(3)
72	matome	H$2,006,723.52	0.02%	69	(3)
73	DVDTalk_BRIAN_1972	H$2,006,723.52	0.02%	70	(3)
74	DVDTalk_JacksSmirk	H$2,006,668.55	0.02%	71	(3)
75	DVDTalk_TheDude	H$1,960,905.69	0.02%	72	(3)
76	DVDTalk_Bizastard	H$1,842,891.94	-0.08%	73	(3)
77	DVDTalk_Giles	H$1,828,270.90	0.15%	74	(3)
78	DVDTalk_TeeSeeJay	H$1,792,782.25	-0.70%	76	(2)
79	BadlyDrawnBoy	H$1,719,765.31	-2.49%	75	(4)

This Week's Top 10 Performers*

1 DVDTalk_Coladar 34.12%
2 Dvdtalk_filmerp 29.96%
3 Dvdtalk_gcribbs 25.57%
4 DVDTalk_kninestile 23.02%
5 DVDTalk_dimitrios3 21.39%
6 DVDTalk_DVD_Smurf 18.18%
7 DVDTalk_kcbrett5 17.26%
8 DVDTalk_genapp 16.39%
9 DVDTalk_JasonF 15.33%
10 DVDTalk_Groucho2 15.13%


*Based on Week-to-Date Percentage: portfolio growth since Sunday

[Groucho]

What is the Hollywood Stock Exchange?

From the website: “Buy shares of your favorite actors and their new movies. Watch their values rise or fall based on their success. Prices soar with a blockbuster opening at the box office and plummet with a bomb no one went to see.” For those who have never played, the game is as a complicated or as easy as you want to make it (much like the real stock market).

Now, I know several of you already have HSX accounts. To keep things fair, in order to participate in the league you’ll need to start up a new account. Here’s what you need to do to join the league:

1. Go to www.hsx.com and start up a new account.

2. You can use any username you want, although if everybody used the format “DVDTalk_[DVDTalk Username]” it would make things easier to track. For example, if my DVDTalk username was "Stockbroker" my account for the league will be DVDTalk_Stockbroker.

When signing up, put down BadlyDrawnBoy in the "Did a friend refer you?" column. Feel free to take advantage of any of the special offers and freebies offered at this time as well.

3. After you sign up, go to “Account Information” and set your “Screen Name” to be exactly the same as your screen name here at DVDTalk. This will help avoid confusion.

4. Come back here and post your HSX user name. You need to have a new account, or I won’t add you to the league.

5. Entry into the league is always open...we welcome newcomers!

Remember, new players: add this week's "Bottom Feeder" (BadlyDrawnBoy) as your referral when signing up!

[Groucho]

Since I haven't put one of these up for a while, "Last Week" in the leaderboard actually refers to 7/9.

[gcribbs]

Thanks for taking some time away from your new baby watching duties to post this Groucho

I wonder how JasonF is playing this weekend since he can gain millions if he hits them all right


By the way is anyone else having a bad day today. I have managed to make $50K however everytime I have a stock making me money it ends up turning on me and I end up having to sell it for almost no profit.

[Heat]

How is badleydrawn boy staying at the bottom, even with the influx of probably $500,000 to $800,000 in referal bonuses?

I really want to know how he does it, so I can do the opposite.

[gcribbs]

Originally posted by Heat
How is badleydrawn boy staying at the bottom, even with the influx of probably $500,000 to $800,000 in referal bonuses?

I really want to know how he does it, so I can do the opposite.

all you need to do is crawl out of the bottom with those referrals then put your money in one opener that you get wrong and you lose it all.

I have lost over 3 million on just two openers so it is easy to do.

[Heat]

Originally posted by gcribbs
all you need to do is crawl out of the bottom with those referrals then put your money in one opener that you get wrong and you lose it all.

I have lost over 3 million on just two openers so it is easy to do.

Yeah, I can see that. Personally, my money is all spread out, I doubt that I have more than $100,000 in more than three or four places, and each of those is less than $200,000 or so.

By the way, which movies did you lose 3 million on?

Also, is this market a zero net game? That is, for ever dollar won, somebody else is losing that dollar?

[Groucho]

No, it's not a zero net game.

As for spreading yourself out...it's good in that you can't lose a lot of money suddenly. But on the flip side, you can't make a lot of money quickly that way either.

[gcribbs]

Originally posted by Heat
Yeah, I can see that. Personally, my money is all spread out, I doubt that I have more than $100,000 in more than three or four places, and each of those is less than $200,000 or so.

By the way, which movies did you lose 3 million on?

Also, is this market a zero net game? That is, for ever dollar won, somebody else is losing that dollar?

AW80D and ARTHR I also lost a bunch on ENVY.

not a zero net game since everyone could buy a stock and drive it up then the theater sales come in and the adjust causes everyone to lose money due to the adjust down. Also with commissions people could buy and sell so often that they do not make anything and in fact lose money.

The general market forces would work that way since as a stock move up people who own it gain and people who have it short lose.

Also new people join and are given $2 million right away. Nothing is subtracted off another account to give that money out.

[Heat]

By the way, one movie that I've made quite a bit on is poised to move again. DRACE is at $5.07 and has been there since late last night at which time I sold it for a profit of ~ $0.70 / share, then shorted it at $5.33.

For it to remain still during the whole day is very unusual, either right after work, or late tonight, it's going to either jump up to over $6 a share, or drop to the low to mid $4s, I just don't know which. Check it late tonight (after the reset, it frequently moves substancially within minutes of the reset) and if you see it in the low to mid $4s, buy it. If you see it in the upper $5s or lower $6s, short it.

[AudioWizard]

I would like to join but I actually signed up last week. If that's not to late let me know.

[gcribbs]

3 short it looks like and 1 possible long unless it is frontloaded and drops a bunch on Sat and Sun.

Friday: Village 20.9 Manchurian 6.2 Harold&Kumar 2.0 Thunderbirds 900K.

I had played TBIRD figuring I would make a few thousand before it halted and I never ended up selling it since I was at work and my limit order did not kick in

It looks like I will lose a bunch on that one.

All I can hope for is that since it is a kids movie that parents will be seeing it on Sat and Sun

[Groucho]

Originally posted by AudioWizard
I would like to join but I actually signed up last week. If that's not to late let me know.

No problem...what is your HSX username?

[movieking]

Originally posted by gcribbs
Friday: Village 20.9 Manchurian 6.2 Harold&Kumar 2.0 Thunderbirds 900K.

Where did you get your numbers?

[JasonF]

Originally posted by movieking
Where did you get your numbers?

They were posted on the HSX boards by someone who has a reputation for getting accurate numbers early.

I'm holding off on posting my analysis until BOM posts numbers, mostly because I went long on all 4 movies and I'm hoping against hope that the numbers turn out to be stronger.

[gcribbs]

Originally posted by movieking
Where did you get your numbers?

Here is a site that has some up now.

http://www.showbizdata.com/index.cfm

Yeah TBIRD went up 100K on that site

[Triple S]

Got lucky. Went all-in (sorry about the poker term.) with MCHUR short, so I'm feeling pretty good today. Pretty....pretty...pretty good.

[JasonF]

Coming to you from the Better-Late-Than-Never Room at Analysis HQ, it's the Friday Numbers Analysis!
==========

Harold & Kumar Friday numbers: $2.02
Internal Multiplier: 2.5 Weekend Estimate: $5.05
HKGWC Halt: $42.85 Adjust: $14.65 Change: ($28.21)
HKGCA Strike: $15.00 Halt: $3.82 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($3.82)
HKGPU Strike: $15.00 Halt: $1.48 Delist: $9.95 Change: $8.47

Internal Multiplier: 2.7 Weekend Estimate: $5.45
HKGWC Halt: $42.85 Adjust: $15.82 Change: ($27.03)
HKGCA Strike: $15.00 Halt: $3.82 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($3.82)
HKGPU Strike: $15.00 Halt: $1.48 Delist: $9.55 Change: $8.07

Internal Multiplier: 2.9 Weekend Estimate: $5.86
HKGWC Halt: $42.85 Adjust: $16.99 Change: ($25.86)
HKGCA Strike: $15.00 Halt: $3.82 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($3.82)
HKGPU Strike: $15.00 Halt: $1.48 Delist: $9.14 Change: $7.66

Internal Multiplier: 3.1 Weekend Estimate: $6.26
HKGWC Halt: $42.85 Adjust: $18.16 Change: ($24.69)
HKGCA Strike: $15.00 Halt: $3.82 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($3.82)
HKGPU Strike: $15.00 Halt: $1.48 Delist: $8.74 Change: $7.26
==========
The Manchurian Candidate Friday numbers: $6.05
Internal Multiplier: 2.5 Weekend Estimate: $15.13
MCHUR Halt: $68.73 Adjust: $43.86 Change: ($24.87)
MCHCA Strike: $25.00 Halt: $3.82 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($3.82)
MCHPU Strike: $25.00 Halt: $1.61 Delist: $9.88 Change: $8.27

Internal Multiplier: 2.7 Weekend Estimate: $16.34
MCHUR Halt: $68.73 Adjust: $47.37 Change: ($21.36)
MCHCA Strike: $25.00 Halt: $3.82 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($3.82)
MCHPU Strike: $25.00 Halt: $1.61 Delist: $8.67 Change: $7.06

Internal Multiplier: 2.9 Weekend Estimate: $17.55
MCHUR Halt: $68.73 Adjust: $50.88 Change: ($17.85)
MCHCA Strike: $25.00 Halt: $3.82 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($3.82)
MCHPU Strike: $25.00 Halt: $1.61 Delist: $7.46 Change: $5.85

Internal Multiplier: 3.1 Weekend Estimate: $18.76
MCHUR Halt: $68.73 Adjust: $54.39 Change: ($14.34)
MCHCA Strike: $25.00 Halt: $3.82 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($3.82)
MCHPU Strike: $25.00 Halt: $1.61 Delist: $6.25 Change: $4.64
==========
Thunderbirds Friday numbers: $0.95
Internal Multiplier: 2.5 Weekend Estimate: $2.38
TBIRD Halt: $22.70 Adjust: $6.89 Change: ($15.81)
TBICA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $0.83 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($0.83)
TBIPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $3.43 Delist: $7.63 Change: $4.20

Internal Multiplier: 2.7 Weekend Estimate: $2.57
TBIRD Halt: $22.70 Adjust: $7.44 Change: ($15.26)
TBICA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $0.83 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($0.83)
TBIPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $3.43 Delist: $7.44 Change: $4.01

Internal Multiplier: 2.9 Weekend Estimate: $2.76
TBIRD Halt: $22.70 Adjust: $7.99 Change: ($14.71)
TBICA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $0.83 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($0.83)
TBIPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $3.43 Delist: $7.25 Change: $3.82

Internal Multiplier: 3.1 Weekend Estimate: $2.95
TBIRD Halt: $22.70 Adjust: $8.54 Change: ($14.16)
TBICA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $0.83 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($0.83)
TBIPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $3.43 Delist: $7.06 Change: $3.63
==========
The Village Friday numbers: $20.60
Internal Multiplier: 2.5 Weekend Estimate: $51.50
VILLG Halt: $149.28 Adjust: $149.35 Change: $0.07
VILCA Strike: $50.00 Halt: $5.38 Delist: $1.50 Change: ($3.88)
VILPU Strike: $50.00 Halt: $2.91 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($2.91)

Internal Multiplier: 2.7 Weekend Estimate: $55.62
VILLG Halt: $149.28 Adjust: $161.30 Change: $12.02
VILCA Strike: $50.00 Halt: $5.38 Delist: $5.62 Change: $0.24
VILPU Strike: $50.00 Halt: $2.91 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($2.91)

Internal Multiplier: 2.9 Weekend Estimate: $59.74
VILLG Halt: $149.28 Adjust: $173.25 Change: $23.97
VILCA Strike: $50.00 Halt: $5.38 Delist: $9.74 Change: $4.36
VILPU Strike: $50.00 Halt: $2.91 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($2.91)

Internal Multiplier: 3.1 Weekend Estimate: $63.86
VILLG Halt: $149.28 Adjust: $185.19 Change: $35.91
VILCA Strike: $50.00 Halt: $5.38 Delist: $13.86 Change: $8.48
VILPU Strike: $50.00 Halt: $2.91 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($2.91)
=========

As always, this is also available at HSJ.

[scott1598]

Could somebody explain in lamens terms exactly what to do to succeed in this game? I never got into the stock market and tried reading the directions.

Would success possibly come if I BUY movie stock and the stock of actors in the movie prior to me thinking the movie will blow up when it is released?

Thanks if someone could take a minute and help...

[Jackskeleton]

Buy a stock at a cheaper price than it delist at.
e.i. AVSP is at $94.86 per share. Now it would have to make atleast that much by week four of it's release to delist at some profit for me.

Short a stock at a higher price then it will get.
CINDR is at $48 per share. it needs to make less than that by delist in order for my short of it to bring me profit

Buy property which you feel will gain in value

seems pretty simple if you ask me.

[johnglass]

I shorted HKGWC a while back while it was at $19.17, then panicked as it soared high to close at $42.85. Glad I held them, at least I should make my original money back, and hopefully a bit extra.

[Jackskeleton]

hee yeah.

Wow, looks like I was completely off the mark this week. Too many new releases to totally be sure. Oh well.

[gcribbs]

I am bleeding money

I can not seem to find a stock that can earn me enough to stay in the black

[coladar]

Shrek 4 has been a cruel beast as of late... Lost about $200,000 on it in a matter of hours, but thankfully I sold it at $84. It's finally dropped down below it's initial price, and is sitting $79.33.

With all I've lost on Shrek 4 lately, I know I this is a mistake, but I'm going to bet the farm on it. With the weekend stocks being unhalted later and this low price, it would certainly seem poised for a decent bump today. Either that or I'll go from gaining 34% last week to losing 34% this week.

I shed a tear when I saw White Castle's Friday numbers. I had 10,000 on the Put and shorted the Call, but I just wasn't sure enough. It seemed so likely to thrive after the reviews it was getting and the fact that there just haven't been many teen comedies as of late. I decided to sell both the options about five minutes before they were halted... I need Shrek 4 to jump to a new high to take that pain away when I see the estimates for it later today.

[scott1598]

Originally posted by Jackskeleton
Buy a stock at a cheaper price than it delist at.
e.i. AVSP is at $94.86 per share. Now it would have to make atleast that much by week four of it's release to delist at some profit for me.

Short a stock at a higher price then it will get.
CINDR is at $48 per share. it needs to make less than that by delist in order for my short of it to bring me profit

Buy property which you feel will gain in value

seems pretty simple if you ask me.

can someone else explain in more lamens terms? thanks.