gcribbs

At the rate it is going it will only get worse. I would not be surprised to see it drop down to under $110 a share.

It will bounce back of course although in the meantime you will keep losing.

Of course I could be wrong.

Jackskeleton

Perdiction. I'm going to be moved out of the top ten by next week if you guys play right. I'm taking off for a week so my port will be focusing on a few films. if they do good perhaps it will keep me afloat. if not.. oh well.

gcribbs

The way this weekend might go you might stay in afterall

AW80D has me worried since it has done so bad the first two days. I might be off it on sunday

movieking

As expected, Shrek 3 is once again dropping like a stone. It is down -10.71 already this morning. I think that people are dumping it because they think that it is commission free now (not for a couple of hours), and they want to get rid of it. It will likely increase again this time tomorrow.

DVD Smurf

DVDTalk_DVD_Smurf joined today!

Correction! Sorry...

Cheers

DVD Smurf

Groucho

Yeah, it started dropping right at Midnight, Eastern Time. People really need to read the rules.

Groucho

For those trying to add DVD Smurf it's actually DVDTalk_DVD_Smurf

gcribbs

Wow the estimated adjust for AW80D is 22 or minus 30 or a 1.5 million loss for those long.

I am going to regret this one

Groucho

How do you get that? It's still Saturday morning and Friday's numbers haven't come in yet.

gcribbs

Friday: Dodgeball $11.8M Terminal $6.3M AW80 $2.1M

from the movie board. people seem to think the numbers are real


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/c...4-06-18&p=.htm

Groucho

The numbers are up at BOM, and they match what you've got.

Looks like Around the World in 80 Days is a collossal bomb. Ouch.

gcribbs

Yep

I remember advising people to buy this

At least I will share the pain with them

JasonF

The Friday number analysis is now available at hsj, one of the leading HSX fansites:

http://www.hsj.org/cl/jason/index.ph...from=&ucat=29&

But because I love you, I'll still post it here:

=====
Around the World in 80 Days
Wednesday Numbers: $1.43 Thursday Numbers: $1.36
Friday: $2.14
Internal Multiplier: 2.5 Weekend Estimate: $5.34
AW80D Halt: $52.83 Adjust: $18.27 Change: ($34.56)
AW8CA Strike: $20.00 Halt: $4.08 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($4.08)
AW8PU Strike: $20.00 Halt: $1.22 Delist: $14.66 Change: $13.44

Internal Multiplier: 2.7 Weekend Estimate: $5.76
AW80D Halt: $52.83 Adjust: $19.51 Change: ($33.32)
AW8CA Strike: $20.00 Halt: $4.08 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($4.08)
AW8PU Strike: $20.00 Halt: $1.22 Delist: $14.24 Change: $13.02

Internal Multiplier: 2.9 Weekend Estimate: $6.19
AW80D Halt: $52.83 Adjust: $20.75 Change: ($32.08)
AW8CA Strike: $20.00 Halt: $4.08 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($4.08)
AW8PU Strike: $20.00 Halt: $1.22 Delist: $13.81 Change: $12.59

Internal Multiplier: 3.1 Weekend Estimate: $6.62
AW80D Halt: $52.83 Adjust: $21.98 Change: ($30.85)
AW8CA Strike: $20.00 Halt: $4.08 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($4.08)
AW8PU Strike: $20.00 Halt: $1.22 Delist: $13.38 Change: $12.16

Internal Multiplier: 3.3 Weekend Estimate: $7.05
AW80D Halt: $52.83 Adjust: $23.22 Change: ($29.61)
AW8CA Strike: $20.00 Halt: $4.08 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($4.08)
AW8PU Strike: $20.00 Halt: $1.22 Delist: $12.95 Change: $11.73

Comaprisons:
Shanghai Noon: 3.44 Shanghai Knights: 3.16
Rush Hour: 3.33 Rush Hour 2: 2.93
The Tuxedo: 3.28 The Medallion: 2.86

=====

The Terminal Friday numbers: $6.20
Internal Multiplier: 2.5 Weekend Estimate: $15.50
TRMNL Halt: $79.35 Adjust: $44.95 Change: ($34.40)
TRMCA Strike: $30.00 Halt: $1.61 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.61)
TRMPU Strike: $30.00 Halt: $3.82 Delist: $14.50 Change: $10.68

Internal Multiplier: 2.7 Weekend Estimate: $16.74
TRMNL Halt: $79.35 Adjust: $48.55 Change: ($30.80)
TRMCA Strike: $30.00 Halt: $1.61 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.61)
TRMPU Strike: $30.00 Halt: $3.82 Delist: $13.26 Change: $9.44

Internal Multiplier: 2.9 Weekend Estimate: $17.98
TRMNL Halt: $79.35 Adjust: $52.14 Change: ($27.21)
TRMCA Strike: $30.00 Halt: $1.61 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.61)
TRMPU Strike: $30.00 Halt: $3.82 Delist: $12.02 Change: $8.20

Internal Multiplier: 3.1 Weekend Estimate: $19.22
TRMNL Halt: $79.35 Adjust: $55.74 Change: ($23.61)
TRMCA Strike: $30.00 Halt: $1.61 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.61)
TRMPU Strike: $30.00 Halt: $3.82 Delist: $10.78 Change: $6.96

Internal Multiplier: 3.3 Weekend Estimate: $20.46
TRMNL Halt: $79.35 Adjust: $59.33 Change: ($20.02)
TRMCA Strike: $30.00 Halt: $1.61 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.61)
TRMPU Strike: $30.00 Halt: $3.82 Delist: $9.54 Change: $5.72

Comparisons:
Catch Me If You Can*: 2.98 Saving Private Ryan: 3.14
Minority Report: 3.13 Ladykillers: 3.05
A.I.: 2.96 Road to Perdition: 3.31
Cast Away: 2.53 Green Mile: 3.12
*Note: This was a Wednesday opener. Multiplier reflects Friday to Sunday multiplier.

=====

Dodgeball Friday numbers: $11.60
Internal Multiplier: 2.5 Weekend Estimate: $29.00
UDOGS Halt: $71.01 Adjust: $84.10 Change: $13.09
UDOCA Strike: $25.00 Halt: $3.95 Delist: $4.00 Change: $0.05
UDOPA Strike: $25.00 Halt: $1.87 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.87)

Internal Multiplier: 2.7 Weekend Estimate: $31.32
UDOGS Halt: $71.01 Adjust: $90.83 Change: $19.82
UDOCA Strike: $25.00 Halt: $3.95 Delist: $6.32 Change: $2.37
UDOPA Strike: $25.00 Halt: $1.87 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.87)

Internal Multiplier: 2.9 Weekend Estimate: $33.64
UDOGS Halt: $71.01 Adjust: $97.56 Change: $26.55
UDOCA Strike: $25.00 Halt: $3.95 Delist: $8.64 Change: $4.69
UDOPA Strike: $25.00 Halt: $1.87 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.87)

Internal Multiplier: 3.1 Weekend Estimate: $35.96
UDOGS Halt: $71.01 Adjust: $104.28 Change: $33.27
UDOCA Strike: $25.00 Halt: $3.95 Delist: $10.96 Change: $7.01
UDOPA Strike: $25.00 Halt: $1.87 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($1.87)

Comparisons:
Old School: 2.83 The Duplex: 2.92
Starsky & Hutch: 2.90 Envy: 2.84
Along Came Polly: 3.12 Zoolander: 3.10

DRG

Whoo hoo! After a horrible start that sent me down to $1.5 mil I'm finally digging myself out of the hole.

solipsta

This isn't gonna be as bad as I thought for my main account, but for my secondary account, I'm gonna drop A LOT.

I really thought AW80D was gonna do really well.

And TRMNL, too! Sigh...

kninestile

AW80D is the first movie I've held long through the opening weekend since I held Girl Next Door.

How cool am I?

JasonF

I held all three long. Looks like UDOGS and AW80D will cancel out, leaving me with the pain of TRMNL.

movieking

I am going to take a loss on 80 Days, but hopefully the Terminal and Dodgeball will make up for it.

movieking

I just noticed the strike price for Spider-Man 2 is $130. Wow. Personally, I don't think that it is going to make it, but who knows. Wouldn't be the first time I have been wrong.

rushmore223

$130 million!? thats extremely optimistic. Even if it were to explode at the theaters, I dont think you could really make a whole lot of profit off a call on that one.

devilshalo

Woohoo... I should do pretty well this weekend! Makes up for 2 disasterous weekends.

I bought TRMPU, AW8PU and shorted TRMNL, AW8CA. Happy me!

Corvin

Spidey opening on a Wednesday might help, though. Isn't the $130 for Wed-Sun? If it isn't, I agree, seems high.

Mano

Looks like it is for Fri-Mon, so I for one think it should make that easy and then some. Probably in the 150-160 range.

Corvin

It boggles my mind, but I suppose it must be reachable.

gcribbs

Do you find you buy and sell without thinking much about it during the commission free period?

I know I buy and sell without much thought about commissions which cause me to do alot of moving around.

Not that I make much more i just test more stocks


I assume those of you behind me will try to lose some money so that I do not fall too far when I lose my 1.5-1.8 million tomorrow right