Dr. DVD

I remember in the old days where no one was ready to label a movie a success or failure until about a month or two after its release. Those days seem to be over.

I seem to notice that during the summertime, movies are all trying to open big and act as if that is the ONLY weekend to make their money. The way they market during the summer, you would think each studio is hoping for their movie to do the $100 million+ of Spider-Man in its first three days.
Now, I realize the given reason for this is because summer chock full of blockbusters opening one after the other. I am sure that Van Helsing will drop greatly after its first week due to the epic Troy opening a week later. I am sure that Troy will follow suit due to Shrek 2, and so on and so forth.
However, I also notice that the movies of summer share a very common trait: mostly negative reviews. While they won't admit it, do you think studios might want to open big because deep down they know their flick sucks and rely on people getting tickets out of the hype before negative word of mouth spreads?
Did it ever occur to a studio they might have a better chance at a hit if they actually tried to make their movies have some substance and get good word of mouth?

Drop

Well I think it's more of immediate gratification situation. If they can make the money real quick, then that's that. They got what they set out to do, no more worrying. They don't have to do anymore adverstising and they can move on to the DVD (which is probably already being worked on), then on to the next big movie. If a studio can have a movie last for a few more weeks then that's even better.

I'm sure there's a bit more to it, but that makes sense to me.

RyoHazuki

People go see the new movie. Its all downhill after the first weekend (99% of the time). If it doesn't get good numbers the first weekend, chances are the movie won't make too much money.

Jackskeleton

Son, there isn't any such thing as "too much" when it comes to money.

My problem is with folks who consider anything a failure if it doesn't break $50 million opening weekend.

Dr. DVD

That might not be true if it got good notices. Most of the movies in the summer get lousy notices, and most of them rightly deserved I might add.

Seeker

What movies did better AFTER the first week?

Titanic and My Big Fat Greek Wedding, right?

how about others?

Jay G.

One thing to consider is that during the first few weeks studios get a bigger percentage of each ticket sale than in later weeks. Studios can get up to 80% of the ticket price during the first week or so. As the weeks go by, the percentage of each ticket sale they receive drops until it can be as low as 30% of the ticket price. So it makes sense for the studios to try and get as much of the BO as fast as possible.

Meanwhile, theatres hardly make any money off of films in their first week. This is why you see some new movies labeled "special engagement," and the theatre bars discount tickets from being used on them. That's because the theatre would lose money on those sales. This is also why snacks and soda prices have jumped, because theatres are making less on the actual films and need to suppliment their income.

Jay G.

Many films in limited release at first do much better when they're released wider, like MBFGW was.

jaeufraser

I don't think the quality of the films really has much to do with wanting to have a big opening. Since really, it's not like movies in general have gotten worse...they've always been mostly mediocre.

And it's not like the studios can decide where they make their money...the market dictates that. And the market says...if you don't open well, you're not going to do well. I mean, there's a reason that people can predict the box office...

I think the opening weekend is just akin to the growth in marketing, and alternative viewing experiences. Remember, 30 or so years ago, they didn't open movies wide like they do now. Most films opened and grew, and had a shelf life of a few months. Did studios cause this to happen, or did the consumers, or both? It's hard to say...

I personally think it has to do a lot with the influx of video and more television choices. Films need to be the big thing, or simply amazing, otherwise the alternatives take over. Plus there's so much product out there, you only have so much time to make yourself known.

But the simple truth is...in this day and age...if you're releasing a commercial movie, from a business sense it would be idiotic to ignore the opening weekend. The market says you have to.

NitroJMS

There's Something About Mary and The Sixth Sense also opened with only modest box office, and then later became mega-hits. I think both actually reached #1 after being out for a few weeks, which is very rare for a non-limited release film.

RyoHazuki

You're are right about Sixth Sense. It made $16 mil. more in its second week than it did in its first.

RichC2

Yeah, emphasis is placed so highly on opening weekend now because it's fairly typical for a huge second weekend drop, the last movie I remember "avoiding" the trend - was The Ring - which made more in its second and third weekends than it did in its first.

Which brings me to think that people love them some freaky surprise twists.

Can't explain Titanic though.

Oh and while Something About Mary did open with modest box office, The Sixth Sense actually opened strong (~$26m) and stayed strong. (never really understood its popularity though, and while not a fan, it was nice to see a "non-typical-blockbuster" do amazing business)

matome

Something About Mary opened with $13.7 mil which was only good for fourth place for the weekend. Eight weeks later it became the #1 movie with $10.9 mil. Doubtful we'll see box office feats like that anymore.

marty888

In the "old days" before the advent of the mini-screen multiplexes, a movie didn't open on 2500-3500 screens all at once. Now, with the cost of all those prints, the studios need to advertise heavily to get people into all those theaters, and so have also added heavy marketing expenses. If the "big push" to suck 'em in on the first weekend doesn't work, they have most likely blown it, because next week's megahit wannabees are waiting in the wings.

wendersfan

My understanding is it's because of the internet. Seriously. What's happened in the last several years is people have access to more information, quickly, than ever before, movie reviews included. So, if a movie is a real dog, people find out about it faster, from both professional reviewers and their 'peers', on boards like this. Because of that, it's important for the studios to get as many people into the theater to see a movie before they've heard enough bad things about it to keep them away. Hence, the importance of the 'opening weekend'. A few months ago there was this story about how text messaging is making this window even smaller, at least among teenagers. Evidently kids are texting one another on Friday evenings, dissuading their peers from seeing 'movie A', and instead telling them to see 'movie B'. Sometimes this happens while kids are standing in line for tickets.

stevek

1) As noted by Jay G., film rentals are the highest in the first week (I've read up to 90%), so the studio is looking to maximize its revenue.

2) The marketplace is so crowded, with several new releases most weekends, that you've got to make your money quick before you get shoved aside.

Given the average cost to make and market a movie now, most films do not make their money back during their theatrical run. It seems like the theatrical release has become in effect an elaborate commercial for the DVD/video release and the PPV run, which by all accounts is where the studios are really making their money these days.

d2cheer

The original Lethal Weapon made more the following week after great word of mouth got out. I had no interest in seeing it, but everyone I knew would not stop talking about it. So I "had" to go and it was great.

Dr. DVD

You're being generous. Depending on the movie, a lot of people are ready to yell "BOMB!" if it doesn't break $70 million. I think that Spider-Man proving $100 mil can be broken opening weekend has everyone else trying to do the same now.

I think that unless Van Helsing opens with over $65 to $70 million, everyone will be calling it a failure.

The Nature Boy

I think there are several factors. For one, I think the "public" has too much knowledge of Hollywood now, and often will see films based on the box office. Spiderman making 114 million week one is great for that week, but also great for the next week, because those on the fence about seeing it probably felt inclined to go to see what the buzz was about. And I don't mean this condescendingly, because I'm guilty of it at times, and I'm a member of the public. I see films like Starsky and Hutch or the Punisher perform so-so, and I fell less of a need to catch them on the big screen, when the dollar votes tell me the film is probably not the best thing to see.

Which is the second point. Dollar votes. Generally speaking, the first week model works. Good movies bring in the bucks(good for Hollywood, we're not talking arthouse gross per se). I can't recall many great movies falling through the crack due to week one. A recent good movie that got lost in the shuffle(but did rebound to make 100 mil so it's not a great example) would be the Bourne Identity. A bit more of a cerebral action film, that didn't wow the teenage audience, but was a quality view nonetheless. It probably could have been a bigger hit than it was(though it was very respectable and made money).

And perhaps the emphasis on sequelization is a factor. Lets face it, most are garbage, and if the week 1 memories don't draw the inital box office before the word of mouth sinks it, it'll be dead. I mean, off the top of my head, how bad were Jurrasic Park or Men in Black Part II's? Both did huge money, but both sucked and fell big time.

Groucho

scott, your analysis forgets about two key factors:

1. "Front-loaded" movies. These are movies with a lot of buzz where most people seeing the film are hyped up enough to see it the first weekend. Example: Kill Bill.

2. Constantly changing choices. People like to see what's new and fresh. After a week, a movie is generally considered "old news." Especially now that we are entering the summer season. Opening weekend is key.

Most movies don't have staying power beyond the first weekend. The ones that do are the exceptions, and to do box office analysis against them as if they were the norm is faulty.

As for Mean Girls, will its take drop? OF COURSE! But it won't fall out of the Top 10 as you predict, I'll tell you that much. It'll probably even beat New York Minute, which is competing for the same audience.

Dr. DVD

I see Mean Girls possibly sticking around the Top 10 into June. While I am certain Van Helsing will be #1 next weekend, I think word of mouth will help MG stay afloat and a general disaste for the Olsen Sisters by the general public might hurt its chances.

Rival11

Absolutely, I say yes to this to no end. I'm sure others would like to thrash me for saying that but it's true, sad but true.

Good call.